A股市场2013年1月投资策略：坚持优选金融蓝筹和周期蓝筹-2012-12-31.ppt

1,a,2013,1,a,2012 ,12,31,12,1949,a,13%,14%,28,300 14%,16%,17%,s1010510120004,-7.4%,2012 1.6% s1010510120038,12,qe4,s1010512050004 s1010511090003, 1,2012,12,s1010512060002 ,a,1,2,ipo,a,/,1,3,,a,2013,1, 1 2 .2 .4 6,2012,12,. 7,. 13 16 . 16 . 19 22,1,3,4,5,6,8,9,11,12,13,15,16,0,20,21,22,23,24,25,28,29,30,31,32,33,a,2013,1,12/3-12/28, 1,2 a,12/3-12/28,. 1, 1,12/3-12/28, 1,12/3-12/28,. 2,12/3-12/28, 2,7 2012,. 3 . 3 4,10 14,a,pmi,. 4 4 4 . 5 5,. 6 6,17 18,10,10,. 7 . 7,19 1, 8 . 8 . 8 . 8 9 . 9 . 9,26 27 34 11 35 11,11,11,. 9 . 9 . 9 .10 10 10 .10 11 . 11 11,36,37,38 1,39 1,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,50 12,52,54,55,56,a,2013,1,.12 .12 .12 12 12/3-12/28 13 12/3-12/28 13 12/3-12/28 .13 12/3-12/28 13 14 14 14 14,48 49 51 53 57 58 59 60,300 / 3 3,pettm pe 1 0.5-1,.15 16 16 .17 .17 .17 .18 18 18 19 .19 .20 20,61,0.5,5,.20,3,4,5,6,7,a,2013,1,1,2012,12,. 2,2,2012,12,28,. 5,.15 16 .19 .21 .22,12/03,12/10,12/17,12/24,2.89%,0,a,2013,1,12 15.91%,a,12.78%,14.22%,28,13.94%,300,16.63%,2%,14,4.32%,12,12,a,2013,a,1,12/3-12/28,2,a,12/3-12/28,2300 2250 2200 2150,18% 16% 14%,15.91%,12.78%,14.22%,13.94%,16.63%,2100 2050 2000,12% 10% 8%,1950 1900 1850 1800,wind,mm/dd,6% 4% 2% 0%,300 wind,3,4,12/3-12/28,20,17.1,14% 12%,10.05%,12.78%,15,10%,10 5,11.2 1.5,7.5 4.7,10.3,6.1 2.7,4.2,7.6 2.1,0.2,8% 6% 4% 2% 0%,2.79% 1.77% 1.00%,3.32%,6.15% 5.37% 0.54%,-2% -0.67%,-5, 1y,3y,-3.0 5y,7y,10y,15y,-3.8 20y,12,wind,wind,a,comex,cbot,nymex,nybot 4.22%,1,5,6,a,2013,1,12/3-12/28,12/3-12/28,4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12%,-0.7%,1.9%,-1.2%,-1.3%,-2.9%,-9.7%,-7.8%,1.3% 0.4%,3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4%,-0.69%,1.76%,0.96%,1.57%,-0.50%,-0.01%,wind,-5%,wind,-4.22%,0 1,2012,9,1,gdp,1,2012,pmi,1,2012,12,2012/8,2012/9,2012/10,2012/11,2012/12,gdp,%,7.4,7.8,2013/01/18 10:00,% % %,8.9 13.2 20.2 267,9.2 14.2 20.5 277,9.6 14.5 20.7 320,10.1 14.9 20.7 196,10.1 14.7 20.6 198,2013/01/18 10:00 2013/01/18 10:00 2013/01/18 10:00 2013/01/10 11:30,cpi ppi m2,% % %,2.0 -3.5 13.5 7039,1.9 -3.6 14.8 6232,1.7 -2.8 14.1 5052,2.0 -2.2 13.9 5229,2.3 -1.9 13.9 5515,2013/01/11 9:30 2013/01/11 9:30 2013/01/10 15:05 2013/01/10 15:05,wind,12,wind,11,7.8%,cpi 11,ppi wind 0.4%,2012,gdp bloomberg 2.12.2%,m2,bloomberg,wind,2,11/04,11/06,11/08,11/10,11/12,12/02,12/04,12/06,12/08,12/10,a,2013,1,7.8%,2013,1010.5%,gdp,20% 2013 2013 1 2,2,16%,9.8%10.3%,7 2012 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0,2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0,8,yy/mm,%,12,2012,12,ceic,30 11 12,12,94,1 1 6 3,11/07,11/09,11/11,12/01,12/03,12/05,12/07,12/09,12/11,10/01,10/04,10/07,10/10,11/01,11/04,11/07,11/10,12/01,12/04,12/07,12/10,a,2013,1,1,12,27,11,111,110,0.5%,82,3% 11,10.8%,6385,0.5%,22.8%,11,17.8%,10,14.1% 9,11,%,5.46%,10,5.66%,pmi,16,1,60,14 12,0,55,pmi,pmi,1,10 8,2,50,6,bloomberg,yy/mm bloomberg,3,45,wind,yy/mm,9,11,9,11,2012,11,%,12,%,12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2,2012/8 2012/10,2012/9 2012/11,700 600 500 400 300 200 100,20 15 10 5 0 5 10,4,0,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,15,12,ceic,12,ceic,3,2013,1,2012,12,2012,1,2013 4,03/q1,03/q3,04/q1,04/q3,05/q1,05/q3,06/q1,06/q3,07/q1,07/q3,08/q1,08/q3,09/q1,09/q3,10/q1,10/q3,11/q1,11/q3,12/q1,12/q3,11q1,11q2,11q3,11q4,12q1,12q2,12q3,12q4,13q1,13q2,13q3,13q4,a,2013,1,3 2013,1,12,1,pmi,1518%,2013,1,13 60% 45%,14 30% 20%,a,%,30%,15% 0%,10% 0%,15%,yy/qq,10%,yy/qq,ceic 2012q4,10,11,wind,2003,5.16%,0.87,2012 10.1%,10 11,2012,-7.4%,1.6%,2012,2,2012,12,28,a,2011q1 2011q2 2011q3 2011q4 2012q1 2012q2 2012q3 2012q4(f) 2013q1(f) 2013q2(f) 2013q3(f) 2013q4(f) 2011 2012 (f) 2013 (f),29.8% 25.8% 26.8% 16.5% 10.2% 6.3% 4.8% 8.1% 4.7% 5.6% 6.6% 8.0% 24.6% 7.2% 6.3%,15.7% 15.0% 14.7% 14.5% 14.4% 14.2% 14.3% 16.1% 16.8% 16.5% 16.8% 16.8% 15.0% 14.8% 16.7%,20.7% 15.2% 7.5% -18.2% -14.6% -17.2% -17.7% 1.6% -1.5% 0.3% 3.4% -4.4% 5.0% -12.2% -0.6%,29.6% 31.9% 20.0% 8.2% 14.8% 15.5% 13.1% 4.1% 7.5% 7.9% 9.0% 17.5% 22.6% 12.3% 10.0%,26.8% 23.2% 12.3% -10.3% 0.6% -1.3% -2.0% 2.8% 3.8% 4.6% 6.6% 6.3% 12.1% -0.1% 5.3%,wind 5,a,2013,1,12 15,ceic,qe4,16,qe4 ceic,2012 2011,12,30,12,31,16.394 2000,6,a,2013,1,12,27,25,17,10,%,18,10,%,wind,10,wind,2011,6,-8,10,2011,6,-8,2013,2,a,2012,12,12,1,0 3:3:2:2 1,7,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,03,09,2002,2002,2003,2003,2004,2004,2005,2005,2006,2006,2007,2007,2008,2008,2009,2009,2010,2010,2011,2011,2012,2012,a,2013,1,19 2500,1,0,20,2008 2011,2009 2012,2010,20000 2000,1500 1000 500 0 11-01 11-05 11-09 12-01 12-05 12-09 13-01 wind 21,15000 10000 5000 0 22 1,400 1,200,wind,700 500 300 100 -100 -300 -500 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 wind,0.15 0.1 0.05 0 -0.05 -0.1,1,000 800 600 400 200 0 200,wind,1 2 3 8,201201,201202,201203,201204,201205,201206,201207,201208,201209,201210,201211,201212,04-06,04-20,05-04,05-18,06-01,06-15,06-29,07-13,07-27,08-10,08-24,09-07,09-21,10-12,10-26,11-09,11-01,11-03,11-05,11-07,11-09,11-11,12-01,12-03,12-05,12-07,12-09,12-11,050715,060227,060922,070420,080620,090306,090904,100319,100930,110401,11q3,120427,121123,:,a,2013,1,23,24,8 7,%,7,30 ma,10 9,%,:1,6 5 4 3 2 1 0,8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0,:7 :14,mm-dd,2007-01,2009-01,2011-01,01-04 03-04,05-04,07-04,09-04,11-04,wind,wind 10,10,78%,12,80%,11,25,(,),26,11,300,300 200 100 0 100,2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900,90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60%,6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0,200,wind,1800,wind,27 1500,11,0,28 100,epfr_china,1000 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500,wind,-500 -1000 -1500 -2000 -2500 mm-dd -3000 -3500,50 0 -50,wind,ipo 9,a,2013,1,29,30,-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%,%,20 15 10 5 0 -5,20 15 10 5 0 2008 -5,2009,2010,2011,2012,% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8,300%,-10,-10,9,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,wind,wind,11,a-,11,8%,7.9% 31,32,8,4.5 4 3.5,%,10 1,%,4 3.5 3 2.5 2,9 8 7 6 5,%,a-,5,3 2.5 2,1.5 1 0.5 0,4 3 2,2010-01,2011-01,2012-01,09-01,09-09,10-05,11-01,11-09,12-05,wind,wind,11,11,600,83% 8.97%,9.03% 10,a,2013,1,13.34 25 20,15.5,36.5,33,34,11,12,%,2,10 8 6 4 2 0 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01,35,11,2013,3,1000 20%,200,2013,11,1201,1202,1203,1204,1205,1206,1207,1208,1209,1210,1211,1212,1201,1202,1203,1204,1205,1206,1207,1208,1209,1210,1211,1212,a,2013,1,36,37,ipo,1,40,200,ipo,20 0 20 40,wind,150 100 50 0,wind,38 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2%,1,/,800 600 400 200,39 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%,1,/,0%,wind,0,wind,ipo ipo ipo h ipo 12,15.13%,14.92%,14.91%,21.67%,10.55%,a,2013,1,12,29,40 30% 25% 20% 15%,12/3-12/28,41 25% 20% 15%,21.65%,12/3-12/28 15.67% 14.48% 11.97% 10.83%,10% 5% 0%,wind,12,10% 5% 0%,wind,12,42 30% 25% 20%,12/3-12/28,43 30% 26.89% 23.00% 25% 20%,20.53%0.23%,12/3-12/28,15% 10% 5% 0%,wind,15% 10% 5% 0%,wind,11.78%,9.29%8.83%,6.42%,12 13,a,2013,1,2008,2008,10,4,2008,10,2011,2010 2012,7,2009 2010,44 46,wind wind,2011,2,45 47,wind wind,2012,14,a,2013,1,48 120 100 80 60 40 20 0,wind,pettm,2008 2012,2012 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 pmi,1,2013,2,2013,1,12,11 qfii,ipo,2013,1 2,2013,1,4,1,3,1 3,pmi,ppi,15,a,2013,1,5-20%,12,20%,10%,49,pe,50,12,900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0,0%,5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%,wind,wind,11,2013,1,ppi,4,41,13,10,%,27,30,ppi,1-11,1-11,/1-10,11,/10,1-11,/1-10,11,/10,11,/10,-3.2 16.1 9.0 57.5 -14.3 -60.3 -0.6 4.5 10.0,0.3 0.9 -1.8 12.9 3.7 7.7 1.2 0.8 4.3,-3.4 -0.2 0.6 1.3 0.4 1.2 2.0 0.9 2.5 1.1,-1.29 -0.58 -0.82 -1.83 -0.87 -1.24 0.98 -0.67 -0.25 -3.63,2.02 2.47 8.27 -4.80 -12.26 6.71 7.48 14.13 20.10,1.15 0.25 0.06 -0.22 1.44 3.40 -0.06 0.05 0.09 0.49,12 13.8%,14.0%,300,2012 29,7,5.1%,4.4% 2013 2012,16,2012-10-08,2012-10-15,2012-10-22,2012-10-29,2012-11-05,2012-11-12,2012-11-19,2012-11-26,2012-12-03,2012-12-10,2012-12-17,2012-12-24,2007-01,2007-03,2007-06,2007-08,2007-10,2008-01,2008-03,2008-05,2008-08,2008-10,2008-12,2009-03,2009-05,2009-07,2009-10,2009-12,2010-03,2010-05,2010-07,2010-09,2010-12,2011-02,2011-04,2011-07,2011-09,2011-12,2012-02,2012-04,2012-07,2012-09,2012-11,/,a,2013,1,51,300,52,16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%,2012 300,2013,2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900,12 10 8 6 4 2,7,11,11,0,ttmpe,0.76,/,2007,10,2009,7,0.85,0.81,53,/,/,7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0,wind,0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0,2012,2013,2013 17,a,2013,1,54 15% 10% 2 0 1 5% 3 0%,0.30,0.50,0.70,0.90,1.10,1.30,1.50,1.70,-5%,-10%,2012,55,wind,2012-11-30 56,2012-12-27,12,12,12,12,60%,80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0,50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%,wind,12,wind,12,12,12,3 12,9 7,9.7% 3.0%,2.2%,18,:,a,2013,1,57,3,30 25 20 15 10 5 0 wind 58 3 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% wind 5 2012-12-28 2012-12-27 2012-12-27 2012-12-26 2012-12-26 2012-12-26 2012-12-26 2012-12-26,1 1,2 2,3 3,2012-12-26,2017,16,f-35,2012-12-25,2012-12-23,f-15,2012-12-21 2012-12-21 2012-12-20 2012-12-19 19,a,2013,1,2012-12-17 2012-12-13,1,2011,10,15,6%,0.5-1,59 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0%,1,60 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0%,0.5-1,3.0%,2.0% 1.0%,1.0% 0.0%,0.0%,21,14,7,7,14,21,28,21,14,7,7,14,21,28,1.0%,61,0.5,5,2011,21,26,34 35,42 46,2010,21,27 27 28,33,44,2009,12 13 13 14,16 16,0,20,40,60,0,20,40,60,0,10,20,wind 20,a,6,2013,1,2013,1,1,2013 2012 2013,2013 2013 2013,1 2 3,2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 1 31 2013,2,2012,1800,2013,5%,2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2013,7 2,2013,/,2013 2013 2013 2013 2013,3 1 2,3.15 2012 28%,2,2013,1,2,2013,android,2013,wind 21,a,2013,1,12,a,1,2,3,a a 2013 1 7,2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013,1 1 1 1 1 1,1 10 14 18 24,pmi 2012,pmi,wind 22,-,“,”,analyst certification i ii the analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the 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