欧洲点评：欧洲央行新闻发布会，关注汇率-130207.ppt

欧洲点评,2013年2月7日 dirk schumacher +49 (0)69 7532 1210,研究报告 高华全球经济研究网站 欧洲央行新闻发布会：关注汇率 基本观点：正如市场普遍预期的那样，欧洲央行决定维持利率不变，而且并未暗示货币 政策立场将很快调整或将推行更多非常规政策。欧洲央行管理委员会将流动性归还央行 视作事态回归正常的信号，而且看起来也不是特别担心过剩流动性的下降可能引发货币 市场利率上行。不过，央行对欧元升值表现出了更多担忧。虽然德拉奇重申了该行众所 周知的不采取汇率政策的立场，但他同时也明确指出 “汇率对于经济增长和价格稳定是 重要的”。在管理委员会是否会对欧元升值做出回应的问题上，3月份的欧洲央行官员 最新预测可能成为一个重要的决定因素。 增长逐步复苏，通胀率进一步下降 预先准备的政策声明仅较1月份做出了小幅调整。声明预计通胀率将在未来几个月降至2 %以下（1月份声明显示“将在今年”），而且“通胀压力应该仍然可控”。有关经济增 长前景的措辞基本保持不变。预计经济疲软将“贯穿2013年年初”（1月份声明显示“ 将延续至2013年年内”）。近来数据表现的改善得到了认可，而且管理委员会仍预计 “ 经济将在2013年下半年逐步复苏”。自上一次会议后的数据表现基本符合欧洲央行的增 长前景，因此维持利率不变的决定获得“一致通过”也就不足为奇了。 关注汇率 近期欧元走强是新闻发布会的一个关注重点：自从12月份会议以来，欧元贸易加权汇率 涨幅超过了4%。德拉吉重申了欧洲央行众所周知的立场，即管理委员会认为汇率的重要 性仅体现在它会改变增长和通胀前景。德拉吉表示，有鉴于此，欧元汇率升值也应该被 视为经济回归正常的信号，因为这是市场参与者对财政风险溢价进行了重新定价。不过 他也明确指出，现在升值幅度已大到足以令决策层更密切考量这会否威及“经济逐步复 苏”前景的程度。德拉吉特别指出，3月份的欧洲央行官员最新预测将成为管理委员会 的重要参考信息（“我们想看看升值是否持续，以及它是否会改变我们对于威胁价格稳 定的风险因素的评估”）。还需要指出的是，本次声明将汇率做为了通胀前景面临的下 行风险，在这一点上有别于1月声明。 重要信息披露参见本文最后部分,2,高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,欧洲点评,我们预计欧元将在未来三个月进一步升值（涨至兑1. 40美元，贸易加权汇率上涨约1.5%）。如果欧元升 值能够在未来三个月中逐渐推进，那么它应该不会促 使欧洲央行下调利率（详细分析请参见2013年1月31 日发表：“欧洲经济分析：欧洲央行与欧元”）。但 是如果涨幅过高或升值速度加快，那么则可能令管理 委员会多数委员转而支持降息立场。 偿还ltro（长期再融资）贷款是复苏的一大迹象 如1月份新闻发布会所显示的那样，管理委员会将银 行偿还央行资金视为市场环境正常化的迹象。此外， 管理委员会并不十分关注eonia（欧元区隔夜拆借平 均利率指数）的（小幅）上升, 尤其是德拉吉表示该 指数的上升可能是由“多种因素”引起的，而且货币 市场远期抛盘的部分回调也印证了这一看法。然而， 这不应被视为欧洲央行对目前状况感到满意的迹象， 德拉吉表示欧洲央行“将密切监控货币市场状况及其 对货币政策立场的潜在影响，而且将保持宽松的货币 政策，继续采取全额分配回购操作”。德拉吉还表 示，“如有必要，我们将继续提供更多流动性”。 一个关键的问题在于货币市场利率进一步上升是否最 终会推动降息。德拉吉在回答此问题时强调了过剩流 动性的供应量，而不是价格效应，因此我们认为他在 暗示降息不大可能发生。他还提到有必要在提供流动 性时将小型银行和大型银行区分开来。因此，我们认 为实施更有针对性的措施（可能在国家央行层面上实 施）比降息的可能性更大。 信贷疲弱，但欧洲央行无法解决可能阻碍银行贷款的 所有问题 欧洲央行认为贷款数据疲弱的主要原因在于需求疲弱 和银行的避险倾向。此外，大型企业目前可以直接进 入资本市场并以较低利率融资。然而，这并不意味着 管理委员会对疲弱的银行信贷活动感到满意。不过， 德拉吉并未暗示将出台任何新的举措。如果资金缺乏 阻碍了银行向企业部门放贷，那么各国政府应该有所 行动。 2013年2月7日,3,高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,欧洲点评,i, dirk schumacher, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my/our personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firms business or 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