东亚贸易模式和全球价值链-翻译.doc

东亚的贸易模式和全球价值链：从商品贸易到服务贸易World Trade OrganizationThe World Trade Organization (WTO) is the only international organization dealing with the rules of trade between nations. At its heart are the WTO agreements, negotiated and signed by the bulk of the worlds trading nations and ratified in their parliaments. The goal is to help producers of goods and services, exporters and importers conduct their business.世界贸易组织世界贸易组织是唯一的处理国家之间的贸易规则的国际组织，其核心是世贸组织谈判和签署的协议，并由大的贸易国家签订，并得到他们的议会批准。其目的是帮助出口商和进口商进行生产的产品和服务的交换。IDE-JETROThe Institute of Developing Economies (IDE) conducts research on economic, political and societal issues in developing economies to support Japans expansion of harmonious trade and investment and provision of international economic cooperation focused on developing economies.日本贸易振兴会-发展中国家研究所 经济发展研究所研究发展中国家的经济，政治和社会问题，来帮助日本对这些发展中国家进行更和谐的贸易扩张及投资，并且提供国际经济合作的机会。 WTO成员经常被称为“国家”，但也有一些成员不是在通常的名正言顺的国家，但正式“单独关税区”。 本报告中的地理和其他集团不暗示任何表达意见的作者关于任何国家或地区的地位，其划界边界或任何WTO成员在WTO协议方面的权利和义务。边界，宗派在地图设有本出版物中使用的分类并不意味着任何判决法律或其他身份等任何领土，也没有任何认可或接受任何边界。Foreword This book is the result of cooperation between IDEJETRO and the WTO in analysing a fundamental change that has been taking place in the structure of international trade. This change is referred to in various ways: vertical specialization, production sharing, trade in tasks, or supply chain trade, to cite just a few. What these all indicate is that much of trade these days comprises components or intermediate goods and services that pass from economy to economy before becoming part of a final traded product. This change has many implications for the way we understand trade policy. The distinction between “them” and “us” that has traditionally defined our way of thinking about imports and exports is increasingly outmoded. Products are no longer “made in Japan”, or “made in France”; they are truly “made in the world”. This new reality has profound implications on several counts. In particular, it redefines the nature of trade relations that are now characterized by a much closer inter-relationship. In order to understand fully the true nature of these new trading interactions, and the actual contribution of trade to national economies, we need to promote a conceptual and statistical shift in the way trade is most commonly perceived in policy debates. The present research builds on complementary programmes developed separately at IDE-JETRO, with the construction of international inputoutputmatrices, and at WTO, with the measurement of trade in value added. By combining the expertise and data available in both organizations, this book illustrates how the conjunction of technical, institutional and political changes in East Asia in the past 30 years has led to the emergence of new production and trade networks. The report makes it clear that business opportunities in developing countries have not only been linked to changes in the global manufacturing model, spurred by the United States and Japan, but have also been stimulated by governments in developing countries. These governments have invested massively to provide the necessary transportation and telecommunication infrastructure, while facilitating trade through various institutional and administrative improvements. The Asiansuccess story was the result of a close partnership between private and public sectors, the latter facilitating the work of the former. Building these industrial relationships also paved the way for the emergence of deeper regional integration. Besides analysing the new trading relations from international and regional perspectives, the book also provides interesting findings on the impact of international trade on domestic economies. The role of trade in generating employment opportunities is reviewed, and shows, using the emblematic case of China, how an export-led development strategy, initially focused on a few industrial coastal zones, was able to progressively include the rest of the economy. East Asia has been at the heart of the new model governing global manufacturing and international trade. It provides a natural case study to explore the contours of this new territory. But the relevance of the study transcends the regional dimension, and we hope that analysts and policy makers from other regions, especially in the developing world, will read these results with interest and adapt them to their own national and regional contexts.前言 这本书是由日本贸易振兴会-发展中国家研究所和世界贸易组织为了分析发生在国际贸易结构的一些根本的改变而合作编写的。变化体现在几种不同的方面：垂直专业化分工，产品分工，任务贸易和供应链贸易等，这引用的只是其中的一部分。所有的这些表明在成为国与国之间的最终贸易产品之前的这些天内都包括零件，中间品以及服务的贸易。 这种变化对我们了解贸易政策有很多影响。传统定义的进口和出口中，我们区分“他们”和“我们”的思维方式已经过时。产品不再是单纯的只在日本生产或在法国生产，它们实际上是在世界各地生产，这种新的现状对几个方面有着深远的影响。尤其是，现在以近似于互动关系为特征，重新定义了贸易关系的本质。 为了完全理解这种贸易交换的真正本质，以及贸易对国家经济的实质贡献，我们需要推广一个概念统计转变贸易的方式是最常用在感知政策辩论中。 本研究建立单独开发补充计划IDE-JETRO，建设国际输入输出矩阵，在WTO测量贸易的增加值。通过结合专业知识和这两个组织提供的数据，这本书说明如何结合技术，体制和政治研究东亚地区在过去30年的变化导致了出现了新的生产和贸易网络。 这份报告清晰地表明发展中国家的商业机会，不仅被链接到由美国和日本促进的全球制造业模式的转变，也由发展中国家的政府所刺激。这些国家的政府已投入大量资金提供必要的交通和电信基础设施建设，同时通过各种贸易促进体制和管理上的制度。亚洲成功的模式是私营和公共部门之间紧密合作的结果，后者促进前者的工作。构建这些产业关系也为更高层次的区域一体化铺平了道路。 除了从国际和区域的角度来分析新的贸易关系，本书还提供些国际贸易对国内经济的有趣的影响。贸易对就业岗位增长的影响是实质的，以及中国的几个概念性元素展示，如何从最初的出口导向型战略，专注于沿海地区发展工业，到逐步能够包括其他经济领域。 东亚已经是全球制造业和国际贸易新模式的核心，它为研究探索这个新领域提供一个自然的案例。但是相关性的研究超越了区域层面，我们希望来自这些地区，尤其是发展中国家的政策分析师和制定者，将读取这些有趣的并适应他们对自己的国家和区域情况的结论。Introduction The geographical fragmentation of production has created a new trade reality. Often referred to as global value chains or vertical specialization, this fragmentation deepens the interdependency of trade relations and has many implications for how we understand trade policy. This book sheds light on the nature of this interdependency, and the contribution of trade to national economies. It illustrates the conjunction of technical, institutional and political changes that led to the emergence of production and trade networks in East Asia, including their impact on trade patterns. As shown in the diagram, the rise of global value chains results from the conjunction of several factors. It started with a change in the consumption models of industrialized economies, which found a supply potential in some developing countries. The book also shows how this development approach, initially centred on a few leading economies that had adopted an export-led industrialization strategy, enabled a larger number of regional partners to embark on an industrialization path that had deep implications for their domestic economies. This structural shift in the functioning of international trade requires, in turn, that the tools used to analyse its evolution, in particular trade statistics, be adapted. 介绍 分散的地域生产创造一个新的贸易现状，通常被称为全球价值链和垂直专业化，这碎片加剧贸易相互依存的关系，并对我们如何了解贸易政策产生影响。这本书揭示了这种相互依赖性的性质，以及贸易对国家经济的贡献。它说明了结合技术，体制和政治的变化导致东亚地区生产和贸易模式的出现，包括贸易模式的影响。表格中展示，影响全球价值链上升的几个因素的结合。它始于一个工业化经济体的消费模式的变化，并发现在一些发展中国家的潜在的供应。书中还列出了这些开发方式如何，最初集中在一些经济体采用了出口导向型工业化战略，促使更多区域合作伙伴走上工业化道路，对他们国内经济产生深远影响。这些国际件贸易需求结构的转变，反过来，用工具分析它的演进，特别适用于贸易统计。The first chapter recalls that globalization has gone through several phases; as a matter of fact, the history of mankind is often closely related to the evolution of trade. In former times, when transportation was difficult, international trade was limited to the most expensive items. With the industrial revolution in the 19th century, mass production and improved transportation made international trade much easier, and most goods became tradable. More recently, a new phenomenon, “global manufacturing”, is again boosting the volume and diversity of products being exchanged. But it is also changing the very nature of international trade. Global manufacturing is characterized by the geographical fragmentation of productive processes and the offshoring of industrial tasks.The increasing fragmentation of value chains has led to an increase of trade flows in intermediate goods, especially in the manufacturing sector. In 2009, trade in intermediate goods was the most dynamic sector of international trade, representing more than 50 per cent of non-fuel world merchandise trade. This trade in parts, components and accessories encourages the specialization of different economies, leading to a “trade in tasks” that adds value along the production chain. Specialization is no longer based on the overall balance of comparative advantage of countries in producing a final good, but on the comparative advantage of “tasks” that these countries complete at a specific step along the global value chain. It would be wrong to attribute the emergence of international supply chains to changes in the productive sphere alone. Supply responds to demand, and the emergence of “Factory Asia” primarily reflects the rise of mass marketing in the West and, in particular, changes in the consumption structure of the US market. In turn, this demand-supply relationship between the United States and Asia has led to Asian economies being structured in accordance with their respective comparative advantages. Over time, economic roles within East Asia have changed, leading to a regional clustering of supply chains based on close industrial interconnections. This industrial interconnection has paved the way for closer regional integration, facilitating trade within the supply chains. 第一章回忆说，全球化已经经历了几个阶段，事实上，人类的历史往往是和贸易的演进密切相关。在以前，运输还是很困难的，仅限于国际贸易中最昂贵的项目。随着十九世纪工业革命的产生，在大规模生产和运输工具上有了较大的改善，使得大多数商品的流通成为了现实，国际间的贸易比以前容易了许多。最近，一个新的现象，“全球制造”，再次提升了产品交换的数量和多样性，也改变了原本自然的国际贸易。全球制造业的特点是地理分散的工业生产流程和外包任务。 价值链的日益分散导致中间产品贸易流量增加，特别是在制造业部门。 在2009年，贸易中间产品是国际贸易中最有活力的部门，占世界非燃料商品贸易的一半以上。这种鼓励在不同经济体的零部件和配件的专业化生产的贸易，导致了“贸易任务”，增加了生产链的价值。专业化不再是基于一个国家生产产品的比较优势的总体平衡，而是在整个全球价值链中，一个国家完成此“任务”中的特定的一步的比较优势。如果将这些出现归因于全球生产中国际供应链的变化，这将是错误的。供应链是响应需求，“亚洲工厂”的出现，主要反映西方大众营销的崛起，尤其是美国市场的消费结构的变化。反过来，美国与亚洲的供求关系导致亚洲各国按照自己的比较优势构建新的经济结构。随着时间的推移，已经改变了东亚地区的经济角色，导致了以区域集群为基础的工业互联的供应链。这种产业为更紧密的区域互联互通铺平了道路，促进供应链内的贸易。The second chapter discusses the process of outsourcing and offshoring, showing the special importance of export processing zones (EPZ) in the international fragmentation of global manufacturing networks. Many developing countries have based their export-led strategies on the creation of these dedicated industrial zones. As a result, EPZs account for more than 20 per cent of total exports of developing economies. But manufacturing is only a part of the global supply chain story, and services, including transport, communications and other business services, are also key components of these global production networks. Chapter III is devoted to the business and infrastructure services necessary for the smooth operation of global value chains. Logistics services, which support the functioning of supply chains and the delivery of final goods to wholesaling or retailing sectors, are crucial elements of these production processes. In this context, Hong Kong (China) and Singapore have become core distribution and logistics hubs in Asian production and trade networks. As part of their overall business strategy, enterprises may also outsource some of their non-core business functions abroad. India and the Philippines have become major offshore service providers, mainly in information technology (IT) and business process outsourcing (BPO). Upgrading infrastructure and support services allowed Asian countries to lower the cost of doing business and increase the international competitiveness of their domestic firms. Programmes were also introduced to facilitate trade and improve trade-related domestic regulations and procedures. While remaining competitive by world standards, if the cost to import and export at the national border has increased in most countries - mainly due to higher fuel prices - the time needed to process trade formalities has generally dropped 第二章讨论了外包和离岸生产的过程，显示了出口加工区在全球制造网络的国际碎片中的重要性。许多发展中国家根据他们的出口导向型战略创造这些专用的工业区。因此，出口加工区的出口量超过发展中经济体总帐户的20%。但制造仅仅是全球供应链中的一部分，服务，运输，通信及其他商业服务同样是全球生产网络中的一环。第三章描述了全球价值链能够平稳运行所需的专业业务和基础设施服务。物流服务，它支撑着运作的供应链和最终的交付货物批发或零售行业，是制造过程中至关重要的元素。 在这方面，香港（中国）和新加坡已成为亚洲生产和贸易网络的分销核心和物流枢纽。总为他们总体战略业务的一部分，企业也可以外包非核心的一些海外业务功能。印度和菲律宾已经成为主要的离岸服务提供商，主要在信息技术（IT）和业务流程外包（BPO）方面。不断提升的基础设施和对服务的许可降低了亚洲国家做生意的成本，并增加其国内企业的国际竞争力。被引进的项目促进了贸易的改善，并且提升与贸易相关的国内的法律与程序。如果在多数国家的进出口边界的成本由于燃料价格的提升而增加，同时处理贸易手续的时间所下降，那么依旧保持着全球标准的竞争力。 Tariffs, another important part of international transaction costs, are reviewed in the fourth chapter. Asian economies have been lowering their applied tariffs, and some economies are hardly levying any duties at all on their imports. Tariffs on agricultural products, however, remain high compared to tariffs on industrial goods. Asias dominance in trade of semi-processed products is also reflected in its tariff structures, with relatively little tariff escalation. In particular, tariffs on semi-processed products are lower than on raw materials or processed products. This flat structure of tariff schedules reflects low effective protection at industry level, something to be expected when firms participate actively in international supply chains. Nevertheless, the reduction in the use of tariffs has not been accompanied by a similar reduction in the use of non-tariff measures. Chapter V is dedicated to foreign direct investment (FDI), which has played a big role in the expansion of trade in intermediate goods. Asias share of total FDI inflows doubled between 1985 and 1995 and has continued to increase. China emerged as the most attractive destination for FDI flows in the Asia sub-region, but its share is declining, while India is now absorbing more investment. Whereas these two very large economies naturally attract large volumes of investment, FDI in fact represents a higher share of GDP in smaller economies such as Hong Kong (China), Singapore or Viet Nam. Although the link between trade and FDI is ambivalent, as a large share goes to non-tradable service sectors, FDI is an essential part of the offshoring strategies of Multinational companies, boosting intra-firm trade in the process. While some types of FDI may substitute crossborder transactions, the level of merchandise exports mirrors the increasing level of FDI inflows in mostleading Asian economies. Similarly, the increased FDI flows to the tertiary sector are also related to the development of services that support and complement global value chains. 关税，是全球交易中另外一个重要组成部分，这在第四章有所评论。亚洲经济体已经降低了他们的实际关税，其中一部分经济体在他们的进口中不征收任何责任关税。然而，农产品却一直保留着比工业品更高的关税。亚洲的半加工产品所占贸易的主导地位同样体现在其关税结构上，当用相对较少的关税升级。尤其是，半加工产品的关税低于原材料和加工产品。这种平面结构的关税安排反映了保护产业等级上的低效，当一些物品是企业积极参与国际供应链活动所需要的。然而，减少关税的使用并没有伴随着类似的减少非关税措施的使用。第五章主要针对于外国直接投资，它在扩大贸易中间商品中扮演着很重要的角色。亚洲的外国直接投资流入总量的在1985年和1995年之间翻了一番，并继续增加。中国成为亚洲次区域地区最吸引外国直接投资的目的地，但其份额正在下降，而印度吸引更多的投资。鉴于这两个非常大的经济体自然会吸引大量的投资，外商直接投资，其实在较小的经济体如香港（中国），新加坡或越南，其占GDP的比重较高。尽管贸易和直接投资之间的关系是矛盾的，多作为非贸易服务行业的大块头，外商直接投资是跨国公司外包策略的一项重要组成部分，促进公司内部贸易的过程。虽然某些类型的外国直接投资可能替代跨国贸易。商品出口水平反映了亚洲经济体在增加外国直接投资流入量水平所占的领先地位。同样，增加外国直接投资流入也和第三产业的发展密切相关，作为全球价值链中服务的支持的补充。While the previous chapters described the economic and institutional context in which global value chains developed, Chapter VI analyses more closely the diversity and complementarity of the Asian regional production system. Using a set of international inputoutput tables constructed by IDE-JETRO, the analysis reveals a dialectical relationship characterized by significant structural diversity on the one hand and a high degree of complementarity on the other one. This complementarity among Asian industries is both a cause for and a consequence of deepened economic interdependency between countries. The forces leading to de factoeconomic integration were first observed in Japan, and then gradually shifted towards China. The chapter shows the growing role of China and the relative decline of the United States and Japan as production hubs. Other emerging East Asian economies have also significantly increased their degree of integration into the regional production system, contributing to strengthening economic interdependency in the Asia-US region. The diversity and complementarity of the regional production system also fosters specialization when it comes to trade in tasks. Reflecting their particular roles in global value chains, some countries, like Japan or the Republic of Korea, specialize in the export of products involving high- or medium-skilled labour, while others, such as China or Viet Nam, focus on low-skilled, labourintensive activities. When considering the totality of the value chain, from conception to production and consumption, developed economies like the United States tend to create employment at both ends of the qualification spectrum, from highly-skilled engineers and professionals to low-skilled retail workers; however, low-skilled manufacturing tasks are outsourced. The net balance of employment is also clearly influenced by the overall macroeconomic situation of each economy; net job creation attributable to trade is much higher in export-led surplus countries than in inward-oriented ones, especially when the latter run structural trade deficits. 虽然前面的章节中描述经济制度的背景和全球价值链的发展，第六章更密切分析亚洲区域的多样性和生产体系的互补性。使用日本贸易振兴会-发展中国家研究所的一组国际输入输出表，分析揭示了一个辩证关系的特点，一方面通过结构的多样性，一方面通过生产的互补性。亚洲产业之间的互补性既是深化亚洲各国经济之间相互依存关系的原因，同样是其结果。事实上经济一体化的力量首先是在日本观察到，然后再逐步向中国转移。本章节介绍了在美国和日本的生产中心逐渐下降的趋势下，中国所起到越来越大的作用。其他东亚新兴经济体也有大大增加了他们的融入度，有助于加强区域的生产体系，增进亚洲与美国地区的经济相互依存的关系。当涉及到贸易任务时，区域的多样性和互补性也培养了其专业化生产系统。反映了他们在全球价值链中特定的角色，一些国家如日本和韩国，专门涉及从事中高等技能劳动力的产品的出口，而另一些，中国和越南等，则集中在技术低，劳动力密集的行业。当考虑到从概念到生产的全部价值链时，向美国这样的发达经济体倾向于创造就业两端的岗位，包括高技能的工程师和实体零售低技术工人，而将低技术的生产任务外包出去。这些就业网络的平衡也明显受到不同经济体的整体宏观经济状况的影响，归因于出口导向型的贸易净创造的就业机会比内向型国家要高得多，尤其是当后者的运行结构遇上贸易赤字。An examination of the historical evolution of production networks in the region, which is the purpose of Chapter VII, shows how Asian economies have become interconnected with each other and with the US market. In 1985, there were only four key players in the region: Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore