课件：农业危机管理和疯牛病.ppt

Managing Agriculture Crises The BSE Situation 农业危机管理和疯牛病,Presentation to: Delegation from China July 14, 2005 Nithi Govindasamy, P.Ag. Acting Executive Director Policy Secretariat Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development,2,BSE Chronology BSE(疯牛病简称)历史,May 20, 2003 1st Canadian cow tested positive for BSE 2003年5月31日加拿大检测发现BSE 34 countries closed their doors to Canadian beef 34个国家拒绝加拿大牛肉进口 August 8th, 2003 US announcement of partial re-opening of border: boneless beef UTM; liver; tallow 2003年8月6日美国同意部分开放-无骨牛肉，肝脏和牛油 August 15th, 2003 product list amended to include trimmings; plant segregations allowed (UTM/OTM) 2003年8月15日开放牛下脚料,3,BSE Chronology BSE历史,Sept. 4th, 2003 first shipments begin. 2003年9月4日-首次出口 Nov 4th, 2003 rulemaking process begins. 2003年11月4日-决策开始 December 23rd, 2003 discovery of US BSE case. 2003年12月23日-美国发现BSE Jan. 5th, 2004 first comment period for Rule ends. 2004年1月5日-决策第一次评论期结束 Jan. 5th to March 6th, 2004 Rule making suspended. 2004年1月5日到3月6日-决策停滞,4,BSE Chronology BSE历史,March 7th, 2004 comment period re-opened for one month. Includes consideration for OTM meat. 2004年3月7日，评论期重新开始为期一个月。包括对OMT肉类的考虑。 April 7th, 2004 comment period ends.2004年4月7日，评论期结束。 April 19th, 2004 USDA amends product entry list to include bone-in beef, ground beef, processed beef products. 2004年4月19日，美国农业部修改了准入产品清单，包括带骨牛肉，绞牛肉，牛肉加工产品。 April 21st, 2004 RCALF court challenge. 2004年4月21日， RCALF 法庭挑战,5,BSE Chronology BSE历史,May 6th, 2004 injunction granted. Product list amended (August 15th list now in operation). 2004年5月6日，禁令被批。产品清单修改 （8月15日的清单现在生效） OMB received Rule from USDA on Nov. 19, 2004. 2004年11月19日，OMB从美国农业部接受法规 Once Rule is published in Federal Register, 60 day waiting period before implementation. 一旦法规在联邦登记发表，在执行前有60天等待期 US market for live cattle under 30 months of age was set to open March 7, 2005 under USDA Minimal Risk Rule. 2005年3月7日，在美国农业部最低危险法规下，美国的30个月以下活牛市场开放，,6,BSE Chronology BSE历史,March 2, 2005, R-CALF granted preliminary injunction preventing border opening. 2005年三月2日， R-CALF品准初级指令以预防边境开放。 USDA has appealed district court preliminary injunction in progress. 美国农业部呼吁地区法庭进行初级指令 July 27, 2005 district court will hear R-CALF lawsuit asking for permanent injunction against cattle and UTM beef. 2005年7月27日，地区法庭听取R-CALF诉讼,诉讼要求永久牛肉和UTM牛肉禁令 9th Circuit Court of Appeal hearing on July 13th 7月13日听取9日巡回法庭上诉,7,BSE Chronology BSE历史,Alberta Beef Producers and Canadian Cattlemens Association have requested intervenor status in the US court. 艾伯塔牛肉生产者和加拿大牛肉业协会要求美国法庭介入状态 Waiting for Judges decision on intervenor status. 等待法官对介入状态的决定,8,BSE Chronology Other Countries BSE历史其它国家,Exports of beef & other products (eg. semen & embryos) have resumed to over 20 countries. 多于20个国家的牛肉和其他产品的出口(例如, 精液和晶胚)重新开始 Japan moving away from insisting on 100% testing.日本不再要求100%检验 Korea waiting for the Japanese open for semen, hides, tallow.韩国 等待日本重新开放精液, 兽皮,牛脂,9,BSE Chronology Other Countries BSE历史其它国家,China looking for technical assistance will open for semen, embryos, tallow first. 中国期待技术援助, 将会先开放精液,晶胚,牛脂市场 Hong Kong & Macau open 香港和澳门开放 Taiwan encouraging signs 台湾鼓励标记,Impacts of BSE 疯牛病的影响,Exports of beef recovered in 2004 but were still slightly below 2002 levels ($1.524 billion in 2004 compared to $1.642 billion in 2002). 牛肉出口在2004年有所恢复,但是仍然低于2002年的标准( $15.24亿2004年,14.42亿2002年) Exports of Alberta fresh and frozen beef including offals fell by approximately $500 million in 2003 compared to 2002. (相对于2002年,2003年艾伯塔的鲜牛肉和冻牛肉(包括下水)出口下降大约5亿),Impacts of BSE 疯牛病的影响,Total Farm Cash Receipts (FCR) for cattle and calves in Alberta fell by over $1.3 billion from 2002 to 2003. 艾伯塔的全部牛和小牛的农业现金收入从2002年到2003年下降多于13亿 FCR for Alberta cattle and calves recovered slightly in 2004, however was still down by over $1.2 billion compared to 2002.艾伯塔的全部牛和小牛的农业现金收入2004年恢复,但是仍然低于2002年多于12亿,Impacts of BSE疯牛病的影响,Normal 7 to 8 cent per lb. spread for fed cattle has averaged 34 cents per lb. under the US price since January, 2004 通常7到8分每磅伸展肉牛平均34分每磅低于美国价格自从2004年1月. Total losses as a result of BSE estimated at $4-5 billion dollars for all of Canada. 疯牛病总损失预计$40-50亿 Government program payments exceed $2 Billion 政府项目偿还多于$20亿,13,Agri-Food Trade with the US (C$ Millions) 与美国农业产品贸易 (加拿大元 百万),14,Canada/US Beef & Cattle Trade (C$ Millions)加拿大/美国牛肉和牛贸易,15,Change in Canada Beef Exports 加拿大牛肉出国变化2002 versus 2004 - Top 5 Markets (C$ Million),16,Canadian herd is growing加拿大牧群在增长,Total cattle and calves on farm: 农场全部牛和小牛 2002 13.76 million 2003 13.49 million 2004 14.66 million 2005 15.09 million,Source: Statistics Canada,17,Canadian herd is Growing加拿大牧群在增长,18,2 bil. pounds,3 bil. pounds,UTM,Free Trade,Removal of Supplemental Import Permits,19,In relative terms whats the impact? 在相关期间,什么有影响? As long as marketings are delayed cow herd will grow.只要市场被推迟, 牛群将会增长 Heifers become cows once they pass the expiry date for UTMs 小母牛变成牛一旦他们经过UTMs的有效日期 Cows get stockpiled, and some continue to calve 牛积存,一些继续生小牛 up 567,900 beef cows in Canada since January 2003 2003年1月加拿大有567,900 头牛 (+217,000 in SK, +175,000 in AB, +116,500 in MB) (+217,000 萨斯喀彻温, +175,000 艾伯塔, +116,500马尼托巴),20,21,22,1.4 Canadian Weekly Cow (D1, 2) Price,Source: CANFAX,* 60 percent weight given to West in Canadian price calculation (based on 1999 to 2001 average east/west slaughter numbers),23,Canadian Policy Responses 加拿大政策回应,Ruminant to ruminant feed ban in effect since 1997. 自从1997年反刍对反刍喂养禁止生效 Removal of SRMs from food chain.从食品链中去除SRMs Enhanced surveillance.加强监督 Changes to feed ban (removal of SRMs from feed) - scope and implementation to be determined. 喂养禁令改变(从饲料中去除SRMS) 决定范围和执行,24,Canadian Policy Responses加拿大政策回应,Measured, consistent with known available science. 测量,和现知的科学一致 Need to be in harmony with US policy changes.和美国政策变化协调 Trade considerations have been the main driver.贸易考虑是主要驱动 Not necessarily irrational.不必要的非理性,25,Canadian Policy Responses加拿大政策回应,Somewhat haphazard due to uncertainty of US actions. 有些偶然性因为美国行动的不确定性 Support programs exceed $2 billion.支持项目超过20亿 Supplementary import permits restricted.辅助的进口允许限制.,26,Surveillance 监督,Testing Targets:检测目标 8,000 (2004) Actual tests = 23,550 实际检测 37,000 (up to May 2005) Annualized rate: 69,000 按年计算,27,BSE Recovery Strategy疯牛病恢复策略,Increase slaughter capacity 增加屠宰能力 Manage cattle inventory to reduce imbalance 管理牛详细目录以减少不平衡 Producer income support 支持生产者收入 New products and new markets新产品和新市场 BSE surveillance and testing 疯牛病监督和检测 Research capacity on prions and BSE 研究能力和疯牛病,28,BSE Issues 疯牛病问题,Testing for market 检测市场 Increase slaughter capacity 增加屠宰能力 Prices 价格 Government support 政府支持 Surveillance 监督 Re-integration of North American market 从新整合北美市场 Supplementary Import Permits 附助的进口许可 Traceability 可追溯 Animal ID 动物身份证,29,BSE Lessons learned 疯牛病教训,One incident of BSE in Canada was sufficient to close all borders and create havoc in the industry.只要一个加拿大疯牛病事件就足够关闭所有的边境,对行业造成大破坏 Importance of maintaining and enhancing close relationship with the US highlighted.突出维持和增强与美国亲密伙伴关系的重要性 Close integration and interdependence of NA cattle and beef industries.紧密地综合和互相依赖北美牛和牛肉市场,30,BSE Lessons learned疯牛病教训,Export dependency of Canadian industry. 加拿大工业的出口依赖 Urgent need to review, revise OIE guidelines to make them more practical and take into account trade realities while adequately safeguarding human and animal health.强烈需要回顾,修正OIE指导方针,使其更实际和重新考虑贸易实施当充分地维护人类和动物的健康,31,BSE Lessons learned疯牛病教训,Guidelines need to become rules with compliance mechanisms. 指导方针需要成为依存机制法规 NA harmonization of policies and regulations. 北美政策和规定融合 Strong public and government support for industry. 强烈的公众和政府支持,32,BSE Lessons learned疯牛病教训,Canada and US should move quickly to complete and implement remaining policy measures necessary to eradicate disease and reassure consumers and trading partners.美国和加拿大应该尽快完成和执行其余的必要的政策措施以根除疾病和再保证消费正和贸易伙伴 Additional policy measures, however, must be guided by sound science and should not be an overreaction to closed markets. 但是,另外的政策措施一定要以合理的科学来指导,不因该放映过渡以致关闭市场.,33,BSE Lessons learned疯牛病教训,Need for coherent, coordinated science-based policy undertakings. 需要连贯的,同等的,以科学为基础的政策承诺 Canada needs to continue applying pressure to re-open US market and other offshore markets.见大需要继续应用压力去重新开放美国市场和其他海外市场 To the extent possible, issue needs to be depoliticized.如果可能的话,事件需要非政治化,34,BSE Lessons learned疯牛病教训,Rational trade policies, based on science, not on politics or protectionism. 理性的贸易政策,基于科学的出处,而非政策或保护主义 Need for multilaterally accepted international rules of management and trade so as to avert problems experienced with BSE. 需要多边接受的管理和贸易的国际法则,从而去转移BSE经历的问题,35,BSE Three Scenarios 疯牛病-三方案,Retention of the status quo exports of beef under 30 months, border closed for live animals and beef over 30 months 保持现状出口30个月以下的牛肉, 对于活动和30个月上的牛肉关闭边界 Border shuts on July 27th for all beef and cattle to US 7月27日,对美国关闭所有的牛肉和牛 Border re-opens for live cattle under 30 months and beef under 30 months continues 对30个月以下的牛和30个月以下的牛肉重新开放,36,Questions 问题,Should market diversification be the #1 priority for the beef industry? 市场多样化应不应该是牛肉业的首要问题? 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