企业的外部环境

CHAPTER 2 ASSESSING THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT 第二章 企业的外部环境分析,Identifying Opportunities, Threats, and Changes Taking Place in the External Environment 找出在外部环境中发生的 机会，威胁，以及变化,OBJECTIVES & TOPICS 目的与要点,Review the factors to assess in determining if an industry is attractive or unattractive and be able to assess an industrys attractiveness. 学习哪些因素影响一个行业的吸引力，通过学习能评估一个行业的吸引力。 Review the key factors to consider in assessing the businesss External Environment be able to assess an organizations External Environment.学习评估企业外部环境的主要因素，学会评估一个组织的外部环境。 Discuss the importance of identifying potential opportunities and risks as a result of performing the External Environmental Assessment and how to develop a strategy to pursue opportunities. 讨论并确定在外部环境评估中发现潜在机会和风险的重要性。学习如何抓住机会，确定战略。,外部环境分类,企业组 织内部,产业环境,政治力量,经济力量,社会力量,技术力量,PEST分析,外部环境的特点和度量,外部环境的特点: 企业外部环境的唯一性 外部环境的变化性 度量外部环境,确认环境状况: 环境的复杂性 环境的动荡程度或稳定性,DISCUSSION 讨论,SHOULD WE GET INTO THIS BUSINESS? 我们应该进入这个业务吗？ List what factors that need to be assessed to determine if this is an attractive or unattractive industry to be in? 请列出需要评估哪些因素来决定这个业务有吸引力与否,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 The Place to Start 从什么地方开始,KEY QUESTIONS 关键问题 Knowing what we know now, would we do this? 如果当时知道了我们现在所知道的信息，我们还会做现在我们在做的事吗？ Is this an attractive or unattractive industry? 这是不是一个有吸引力的行业呢？ Should we get into or out of this industry? 我们是应该进入还是退出这个行业呢？ How do we answer this?我们如何回答这些问题呢？,POTER的五种竞争力模型,行业内的竞争者 现有企业间竞争,供应商,购买商,潜在进入者,替代产品,新进入者的威胁,购买者讨价还价能力,替代产品或服务的威胁,供应商讨价 还价能力,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Industry Factors to Assess 需要评估的行业因素,Industry Market Size and Growth Rate. 行业市场规模及其增长率 Extent of Competitive Activity. 竞争程度 Number of Competitors in the Industry and their size. 行业内的竞争对手及其规模,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Industry Factors to Assess 需要评估的行业因素,Trends in mergers and acquisitions, particularly forward and backward integration mergers and acquisitions. 并购的趋势，特别是上下游企业的并购 Barriers to Entering or Exiting the Industry. 进入或退出行业的壁垒 Type and Rate of Technological Change in the Industry. 行业内的技术类型和技术更新速度,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Industry Factors to Assess 需要评估的行业因素,Product Characteristics (Differentiated, Commodity, Expensive Item). 产品特征（是否雷同，日用品，价格昂贵的产品） Customer Base (Wants, Values, Changing Preferences, etc.). 消费者基本状况（欲望，认知价值，喜好的变化，等等） Economies of Scale and Learning Curve Impacts . 经济规模以及学习曲线的影响,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Industry Factors to Assess 需要评估的行业因素,Industry Capacity and Capital Requirements. 行业容量以及对资本的要求 Industry Profitability 行业的赢利性 Government Regulations 政府政策,Meet in pairs and provide an example of how government Regulations can have a positive and a negative impact on an industry in China. 分小组讨论并举例说明为什么说政府的政策会对各行业产生积极或负面影响。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Market Size 需要评估的因素市场容量,Small markets do not tend to attract new competitors. 小的市场不容易吸引新的竞争者 Large markets attract competitors looking to acquire companies with established positions in attractive industries.吸引力大的市场吸引竞争者进入，他们会在行业内寻找并设法并购已经树立起自己地位的公司,Give examples of competitors entering China through acquisitions or alliances because of the size of the market? And what are the attractive industries in China? 举例说明由于市场容量的关系，一些竞争者是以兼并或联盟的方式进入中国的。哪些是中国的最富吸引力的行业？,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Market Growth Rate 需要评估的因素市场增长率,MARKET GROWTH RATE 市场增长率 Faster growing industries attract new competitors. 增长率高的行业吸引新的竞争者进入。 Slower growing or declining industries increase competition among the existing competitors. 增长缓慢或者正在衰退的行业会使行业内的竞争加剧。 Weaker and smaller companies in a stable or declining industry will consolidate or leave the industry. 在稳定或正在衰退的行业内的弱小公司会设法巩固自己或者退出该行业。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Competition 需要评估的因素竞争,COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT COMPETITION STRONGER WHEN: 竞争环境 下列情况下竞争将会加剧： The industry has many competitors that are equal in size and have generally the same capabilities (Example - industrial distribution). 行业内竞争者数量多，他们的规模和能力都大体相当。 The market has slow or declining growth. 市场增长缓慢，或者增长率下降 Customers can switch brands easily (lack of differentiation). 顾客很容易转向其他品牌的产品（产品雷同）,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Competition 需要评估的因素 竞争,COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT 竞争环境 Costs more to get out of the industry than to stay in it. 退出行业比留在行业的成本更高。 Competitor initiates price cutting strategy to increase sales and market share. 竞争者发起价格战以增加销售和市场份额。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Industry Capacity 需要评估的关键因素 行业容量,INDUSTRY CAPACITY 行业容量 Excess Industry Capacity (over supply) forces prices and profit margins down. 行业能力过剩迫使价格和边际利润降低 Shortages forces prices up. 短缺导致价格上升。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Industry Profitability 需要评估的因素 行业赢利性,INDUSTRY PROFITABILITY 行业赢利性 High-profit industries attract new competitors. 高利润的行业吸引新的竞争者。 Low-profit industries may result in competitors consolidating or leaving the industry. 低利润的行业可能导致竞争者联合或退出行业。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factors to Assess Entry & Exit Barriers 需要评估的因素 进入或退出壁垒,INDUSTRY ENTRY & EXIT BARRIERS 进入或退出行业的壁垒 High entry barriers (difficult to enter the industry) protect the existing firms in the industry and their profits. 高进入壁垒（进入行业困难）保护行业内现存的公司及其利润。 Capital intensive industries also make it difficult to exit the industry. 资本密集型行业使得退出这个行业困难。 Low entry barriers (easy to enter the industry) make existing firms in the industry vulnerable to new competitors. 低进入壁垒（进入行业容易）使行业内现存的公司容易受到新竞争者的挑战。,DISCUSSION 讨论,Meet in pairs and provide examples of industries with high and low entry barriers. 分组讨论并举 例说明高进入壁垒行 业和低进入壁垒行业,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Entry Barriers 需要评估的因素 进入壁垒,ENTRY BARRIERS ARE HIGH WHEN: 下列情况下进入行业存在高壁垒： Need economies of scale to compete. 竞争需要规模经济。 Cannot get required technology or too costly. 无法得到需要的技术或代价太高。 Customers have strong brand preferences and loyalty to existing products. 顾客有强烈的品牌喜好，并忠实于现有的品牌。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Entry Barriers 需要评估的因素 进入壁垒,ENTRY BARRIERS ARE HIGH WHEN: 下列情况下进入行业存在高壁垒： Need high capital investment requirements or other special resources. 需要大量的资本投入或其他资源的投入。 Cannot get access to channels of distribution. 无法得到分销渠道。 Regulatory policies, tariffs, and other trade restrictions create entry barriers. 政府调节性政策、税收以及其他限制性措施产生的进入壁垒。 Entry Barriers are low when none or few of these obstacles exist, and new competitors can make good profits quickly. 在没有这些情况时，进入壁垒很低，新竞争者可以很快获取利润。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Products 需要评估的因素 产品,TYPE OF PRODUCTS 产品类型 Expensive - “Big Ticket” products will usually cause customers to shop for lower prices. 高价品 高价位的产品往往使得顾客购买价格较低的产品。 Customers have more power relative to “Commodity” type products because it is easier for them to switch suppliers. 相对“高价品”而言，顾客对“日用品”有更多的选择权，因为他们更容易转向其他的供应者。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Substitute Products 需要评估的因素 替代产品,THREAT OF SUBSTITUTE PRODUCTS THREAT GREATER WHEN: 替代产品的威胁在增加，尤其是在 下列情况下： Substitute products are readily available and attractively priced. 替代产品现在就有，并且价格很有吸引力。 Customers believe the substitute is comparable or better than the original one. 顾客认为替代品与原来的产品相当，价格更便宜。 Easy for the customer to switch products. 顾客很容易转用替代品。 Threat of substitutes increasing when sales are growing rapidly, competitor is planning to expand capacity, and their profits are up. 在销售迅速增加，竞争者计划扩大生产、利润增加时，替代品的威胁增大。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Technological Changes 需要评估的因素 技术进步,RAPID TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES IN THE INDUSTRY 行业内技术进步加快 Industries with rapid changing technology create risk. 不断更新技术的行业增加风险。 Investments in technology, facilities, and equipment may become obsolete in short periods of time, 对技术、工具和设备的投资可能在很短的时间内就会过时。,DISCUSSION 讨论,Meet in pairs and discuss examples of industries where there are rapid technological changes? Would these be good industries to enter? Why or why not?,分组讨论并举例说明哪些是技术进步快的行业？这种行业是否好进入？为什么？,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Capital Investment 需要评估的因素 资本投入,CAPITAL INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS 资本投入的需要 Large capital investment requirements make investment decisions critical. 需要大量资本投入时，投资决策尤为关键。 Timing of investment decisions becomes important. 投资决策的时机非常重要。 High capital investment requirements create higher entry and exit barriers. 因为需要大量资本投入，进入壁垒和退出壁垒也随之增高。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Vertical Integration 需要评估的因素 纵向联合,FORWARD & BACKWARD INTEGRATION 上、下游的联合 Raises capital requirements for making acquisitions. 需要集资进行并购。 May create competitive and cost differences between vertically integrated firms and non-integrated firms. 可能在纵向并购的企业与没有并购的企业之间发生竞争，并引起成本差别。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Economies of Scale 需要评估的因素 规模经济,ECONOMIES OF SCALE REQUIREMENTS 规模经济的需要 Industries where Economies of Scale are a factor requires increased volume and market share to be cost competitive. 需要规模经济的行业要求增加产量和市场份额以降低成本。 This requirement also creates an entry barrier. 这种要求也产生进入壁垒。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Product Innovation 需要评估的因素 产品创新,RAPID PRODUCT INNOVATION 迅猛的产品创新 Rapid product innovation in an industry shortens product life cycles. 行业内迅猛的产品创新缩短产品的生命周期。 Increases risk because of the opportunities for “leapfrogging.” 因为“跳跃式”的机会而增加风险。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Suppliers 需要评估的因素供应商,IMPACT OF SUPPLIERS 供应商的影响 Suppliers can have an impact on the business/industry if their products make up a large portion of production costs. 如果供应商的成本构成了产品成本的很大部分，供应商可能对企业行业产生影响。 Their products are important in the manufacturing process and/or product quality. 他们的产品在生产过程中和/或产品质量上变得重要。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Suppliers 需要评估的因素供应商,SUPPLIERS 供应商 It is difficult and costly to switch to another supplier. 要转向另外一个供应商会很困难，成本也很高。 They can supply their product less than the industry could make it themselves. 这些供应商可以以行业自身生产这些产品更低的成本生产。 There are no threats of substitutes for the suppliers products. 供应商的产品不存在替代品的威胁。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Suppliers 需要评估的因素供应商,SUPPLIER HAS STRONG IMPACT ON INDUSTRY IF: 下列情况下，供应商对行业有相当大的影响： They can dictate prices charged for their products. 他们能够左右自己产品的价格。 Control product quality and other services. 控制产品及其他服务的质量。 Control how much and when products will be delivered. 控制什么时候生产多少产品，什么时候供应多少产品。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Key Factor to Assess Government Regulations on the Industry 需要评估的因素 政府对行业的政策,GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS 政府政策 What present government regulations or restrictions have a negative or positive impact on the industry? 现在政府什么样的政策或限制措施对行业有什么正面或负面影响？ What pending government regulations may have a negative or positive impact on the industry? 政府可能出台的什么样的政策可能对行业有什么正面或者负面的影响？,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Attractiveness of an Industry 行业的吸引力,CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ATTRACTIVE INDUSTRY 具有吸引力的行业特点 High returns on capital for businesses accounting for most of the market. 在市场上的大部分公司都有高资本回报率。 Stable or rising average industry return on capital. 稳定的或不断增加的资本回报。 Clear barriers to entry, keeping out many new competitors. 清晰的进入壁垒，使得许多新的竞争者不能进入。 Capacity at or below the level of demand, and low exit barriers. 生产能力等于或低于对产品的需求量，并且退出壁垒低。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT 行业评估 Attractiveness of an Industry 行业的吸引力,CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ATTRACTIVE INDUSTRY 具有吸引力的行业的特点 Reasonable or high market growth. 合理的或者相对大的市场增长。 Little or no threat of substitute products. 没有或者相当小的替代品威胁。 Little impact of suppliers on the industry. 供应商对行业的影响几乎没有。 Low bargaining power of customers relative to the industry. 相对于行业来说，顾客很难讨价还价。 No or few government regulations having a negative impact on the industry. 政府政策对行业的负面影响很小甚至没有。,INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT DISCUSSION 行业评估讨论,GROUP DISCUSSION 小组讨论 Meet in small groups of 3 to 5 students. 分成3-4人的小组。 2. Discuss the Industry Attractiveness Assessment for 2 industries represented by your group. 根据“行业吸引力评估表”讨论小组成员所在的两个不同的行业。 3. Select someone from your group to present a brief 3 minute report as to the attractiveness or unattractiveness of these industries. 选出代表在全班发言，分析这些行业的吸引力。,EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL SSESSMENT 外部环境评估,Competition 竞争 Assessment of Present Competitors Strengths & Weaknesses 评估当前竞争者的优势与劣势 Rivalry Among Competing Firms 竞争公司间的明争暗斗 Assessment of Present & Potential Competitors Strategies 评估当前以及潜在竞争者的战略 Entry of New or Exit of Present Competitors 新竞争者的进入或者当前竞争者的退出 Threat of Substitute Products 来自替代产品的威胁 Bargaining Power of Customers and Suppliers 顾客和供应商讨价还价的力度,EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT 外部环境评估,Demographic Changes 人口的变化 Collapsing Birthrate & Aging Populations 急剧下降的出生率和不断老化的人口 Shifts in the Distribution of Disposable Income 可支配收入的分配转变 Society Changes in Values & Preferences 社会价值观和喜好的变化 Identify Innovative Opportunities 发现创新的机会,EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT 外部环境评估,Globalization & World Financial Systems 全球化和世界金融体系 Extent of Globalization on the Industry & Business 本行业和本企业全球化的程度 Health of Individual Countries Economies and the Banking System. 各个国家的经济和银行体系的稳定状况 The Outlook for the Macro and Micro Economy (GNP, Interest Rates, Currency Exchange Fluctuations, etc.) 经济的宏观、微观方面的前景（GNP，利率，汇率变化） What Innovative Opportunities or Risks Will These Bring? 所有这些都会带来什么样的创新机会,EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT 外部环境评估,Political & Regulatory Changes 政治和政策的变化 Political Stability or Instability in the Businesss Environment 企业的政治环境是否稳定 Recent or Pending Regulatory Changes and Their Potential Impact on the Business 最近或者尚未出台的政策变化及其对企业的潜在影响 Innovative Opportunities and Risks as a Result of These Changes 由于这些变化而产生的创新机会和风险,EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT 外部环境评估,Technological Changes 技术进步 Technological Changes and Their Impact on the Business and Industry. 技术进步对企业和行业的影响 Internet and E-Commerce 互联网和电子商务 Innovative Opportunities and Risks as a Result of Technological Changes 技术进步带来的创新机会和风险,EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT 外部环境评估,Work Force 劳动力 Aging Workforce 逐渐老龄化的劳动力 Present and Future Supply of Workforce 劳动力现在和将来的来源 Knowledge and Skills of Workforce 劳动力的知识和技能 Availability of Knowledge Workers 知识工作者的兴起,EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT 外部环境评估,Suppliers 供应商 Number and Power of Suppliers on Industry 行业内供应商的数量和影响力 Abundance or Scarcity of Supply Now and in Future 现在和未来的供应是否充足 Bargaining Power of Suppliers 供应商的讨价还价能力 Entry or Exit of Suppliers 供应商的进入或退出 Vertical Integration of Suppliers 供应商的纵向联合 Potential Entry of Supplies into Industry 潜在供应商进入本行业,UNIT CONCLUSION DISCUSSION 单元总结讨论,1. Meet in small groups. 分成小组 2. Discuss which factors are most important for a Chinese company to assess in their External Environment today. (You may review all your material covered today). 讨论当今中国企业的外部环境评估中最重要的因素是什么。（请回顾今天讲过的内容） 3. Select someone from your group to make a brief 3 minutes presentation to the class. 选出代表在全班发言3分钟。 4. You may present differing opinions from within your group as to what is most important. 小组讨论中可以就什么是最重要的因素发表不同见解。,Industry Analysis (EFE),External Factor Evaluation Matrix Summarize & evaluate:,Industry Analysis (EFE) (Contd),Five-Step process: List key external factors (10-20) Opportunities & threats Assign weight to each (0 to 1.0) Sum of all weights = 1.0,Industry Analysis (EFE) (Contd),Five-step process: Assign 1-4 rating to each factor Firms current strategies response to the factor Multiply each factors weight by its rating Produces a weighted score,Industry Analysis (EFE) (Contd),Five-step process: Sum the weighted scores for each Determines the total weighted score for the organization. Highest possible weighted score for the organization is 4.0; the lowest, 1.0. Average = 2.5,Industry Analysis (EFE) (Contd),Total weighted score of 4.0 = Organization response is outstanding to threats & weaknesses Total weighted score of 1.0 = Firms strategies not capitalizing on opportunities or avoiding threats,Industry Analysis (EFE) (Contd),UST (in the previous example), has a total weighted score of 2.10 indicating that the firm is below average in its effort to pursue strategies that capitalize on external opportunities and avoid threats.,Industry Analysis (EFE) (Contd),Important Understanding of the factors used in the EFE Matrix is more important than the actual weights and ratings assigned.,Industry Analysis (CPM),Competitive Profile Matrix Identifies firms major competitors and their strengths & weaknesses in relation to a sample firms strategic position,(CPM) Procter Avon LOreal & Gamble,Developing an EFE Matrix for My University,Purpose More colleges and universities are embarking upon the strategic-management process. Institutions are consciously and systematically identifying and evaluating external opportunities and threats facing higher education in your state, the nation, and the world.,Developing an EFE Matrix for My University,Instructions Step 1:Join with two other individuals in class and jointly prepare an EFE Matrix for your institution. Step 2:Go to the board and record you