财务报表盈利预测与估值表(超级精华).xls

一、 模型构成 1. Operating（业务预测表） ：包括公司历史业务数据以及未来业务预测 2. Assumption(预测假设)：包括经营活动假设、营运资金假设、投资活动假设、融资活动假设、估值参数假设 3. Scenerio(情景分析)：包括情景分析假设与情景分析结果 4. D&A(折旧与摊销预测)：包括固定资产及折旧、无形资产及摊销、长期待摊费用及摊销的预测 5. Financing(财务费用预测)：包括现金、短期借款、利息收入、利息费用与财务费用预测 6. BS(资产负债表及预测) 7. IS（利润表及预测） 8. SCF(现金流量表及预测) 9. FCF（自由现金流预测） ：计算企业自由现金流 10. Valuation(绝对估值结果)：包括 APV WACC DDM AE EVA 估值模型，及各种估值结果的敏感性分析 11. Ratios(相关比率数据) 12. Summary(输出结果及报表)：包括三大表以及相关比率的输出、报告首页的财务数据表 13. 原始报表由 WIND 链接导入 14. 单季度利润表由 WIND 链接导入 二、 使用说明 1. 先关闭所有 EXCEL,打开 WIND，然后打开本文件，在 Assumption 输入所要分析的公司代码，模型将自动更新历史财务数据 2. 预测公司未来业务，完成 Assumption 表格，这是模型最关键部分 3. 确定公司的相关假设前提，完成 Assumption 表格，具体假设参数的选取视行业与公司情况而定 4. 需要手工输入的部分完成后，模型自动生成预测期各年的三大表、估值结果 5. 校验数据，主页看预测结果是否合理、资产负债表是否配平 6. Summary 表中的三大表，DCF 估值表可以直接拷贝至报告，财务数据简表可直接拷贝至报告首页 三、 注意事项 1. 表中蓝色底的区域为需要人工输入部分 2. 注意模型中公式链接，以免引用混乱，尽量不要对单元格采取“拖动”操作 3. 固定资产预测要注意与资产负债表的固定资产数据匹配 4. IS 表中，股利一项实际为上一年的现金股利，上一年度利润分配实际在下一年发放，因此体现为下一年现金流出 一、 模型构成 1. Operating（业务预测表） ：包括公司历史业务数据以及未来业务预测 2. Assumption(预测假设)：包括经营活动假设、营运资金假设、投资活动假设、融资活动假设、估值参数假设 3. Scenerio(情景分析)：包括情景分析假设与情景分析结果 4. D&A(折旧与摊销预测)：包括固定资产及折旧、无形资产及摊销、长期待摊费用及摊销的预测 5. Financing(财务费用预测)：包括现金、短期借款、利息收入、利息费用与财务费用预测 6. BS(资产负债表及预测) 7. IS（利润表及预测） 8. SCF(现金流量表及预测) 9. FCF（自由现金流预测） ：计算企业自由现金流 10. Valuation(绝对估值结果)：包括 APV WACC DDM AE EVA 估值模型，及各种估值结果的敏感性分析 11. Ratios(相关比率数据) 12. Summary(输出结果及报表)：包括三大表以及相关比率的输出、报告首页的财务数据表 13. 原始报表由 WIND 链接导入 14. 单季度利润表由 WIND 链接导入 二、 使用说明 1. 先关闭所有 EXCEL,打开 WIND，然后打开本文件，在 Assumption 输入所要分析的公司代码，模型将自动更新历史财务数据 2. 预测公司未来业务，完成 Assumption 表格，这是模型最关键部分 3. 确定公司的相关假设前提，完成 Assumption 表格，具体假设参数的选取视行业与公司情况而定 4. 需要手工输入的部分完成后，模型自动生成预测期各年的三大表、估值结果 5. 校验数据，主页看预测结果是否合理、资产负债表是否配平 6. Summary 表中的三大表，DCF 估值表可以直接拷贝至报告，财务数据简表可直接拷贝至报告首页 三、 注意事项 1. 表中蓝色底的区域为需要人工输入部分 2. 注意模型中公式链接，以免引用混乱，尽量不要对单元格采取“拖动”操作 3. 固定资产预测要注意与资产负债表的固定资产数据匹配 4. IS 表中，股利一项实际为上一年的现金股利，上一年度利润分配实际在下一年发放，因此体现为下一年现金流出 代码代码公司名称公司名称分析日期分析日期 600439.SH瑞贝卡瑞贝卡2009-10-12 1、经营活动假设、经营活动假设2004200520062007 营业收入增长率（YOY)50.19%8.12%40.76%15.00% 营业成本 /营业收入80.15%78.22%79.83%73.78% 营业税率0.01%0.39%0.41%0.61% 销售费用 /营业收入2.36%2.50%1.09%1.39% 管理费用 /营业收入2.39%3.60%3.42%2.93% 实际税率29.34%29.86%30.32%27.39% 少数股东损益/税前利润0.03%0.00%0.02%0.00% 股利分配比例55.11%59.13%49.02%26.12% 2、营运资金假设、营运资金假设2004200520062007E 货币资金 /营业收入15.50%42.85%33.89% 应收帐款周转天数(相对于营业收入)50.9242.5646.56 其他应收款/营业收入0.89%0.74%0.75% 应收票据周转天数(相对于营业收入)0.000.000.00 存货周转天数(相对于营业成本)256.29134.69176.74 应付票据周转天数(相对于营业成本)0.000.000.00 应付帐款周转天数(相对于营业成本)43.158.8218.45 预付帐款增加 /营业成本1.38%2.46%5.18% 预收帐款(负债)增加 /营业收入0.10%0.26%-0.13% 预提费用增加 /营业收入-0.01%-0.05%0.00% 其他流动资产增加 /营业收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00% 其他流动负债增加 /营业收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00% 其他长期资产增加 /营业收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00% 其他长期负债增加 /营业收入增加0.00%3.53%0.46% 坏帐准备 /应收帐款 短期投资跌价准备 历史数据历史数据 存货跌价准备(含工程亏损准备) 长期投资减值准备 固定资产减值准备 在建工程减值准备 3、投资活动假设、投资活动假设2004200520062007 I 资本开支资本开支 期末固定资产原值22226.71 期末累计折旧3948.94 期末固定资产减值准备0.00 3102.1-678.7619.90 无形资产投资 长期待摊费用增加 固定资产的折旧年限平均为15年 残值率为5.00%年折旧率=6.33% 新增固定资产折旧率6.00% 现有无形资产摊销年限为15年 新增无形资产摊销年限为15年 现有长期待摊费用摊销年限为10年 新增长期待摊费用摊销年限为10年 II 金融投资及股权投资金融投资及股权投资 交易性金融资产投资 可供出售金融资产投资 持有至到期投资 长期股权投资 投资性房地产 4、融资活动假设、融资活动假设2004200520062007 贷款贷款 银行长期贷款增加额 债券或短融债券或短融 期初余额 债券发行数量 债券偿还 可转债可转债 期初余额 可转换债当期发行/(赎回） 可转债当期转股 转股价格 转股股数 股票融资股票融资 发行股数 发行价格 发行费用所占比例 固定资产投资 利率假设利率假设 a、最低货币资金为营业收入的15.00% b、银行长期贷款利率为5.94% c、短期贷款利率为5.30% d、现金存款利率为0.98% f、债券利率 e、可转债利率 5、估值参数相关假设、估值参数相关假设 总股本61,649.25 流通B股 流通A股61,649.25 B股股价 A股股价9.10汇率 无风险利率Rf=2.25% 目标债务比率=45.00% Rm=12.0% 长期增长率 = 2.00% e(levered)= 1.00 税前Kd= 4.33% 税后Kd=3.25% 20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E 0.47%17.48%22.66%15.09%8.52%10.40%10.16%5.95%11.41% 70.64%73.28%68.67%66.86%64.90%63.33%62.21%61.21%60.54% 0.42%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40% 3.02%3.50%3.50%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40% 3.84%5.00%4.60%4.40%4.30%4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20% 10.86%20.00%20.00%20.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00% 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 17.57%30.00%35.00%40.00%42.00%44.00%46.00%48.00%50.00% 20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E 27.50%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00% 24.7530.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.00 1.27%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10% 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 360.75300.00300.00300.00300.00300.00300.00300.00300.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 27.3022.0022.0022.0022.0022.0022.0022.0022.00 -4.59%-0.50%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00% 0.51%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50% 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 11.83%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00% 明确预测期明确预测期长期预测期长期预测期 20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E 27363.1331112.0333986.4835923.7037892.3239876.6241868.7743864.8545862.89 5134.807092.739223.1311469.7613834.5116318.3218921.6621644.7624487.74 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 6813.684000.002000.001000.002000.002000.002000.002000.002000.00 1000.001000.001000.000.001000.001000.000.001000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 流通H股 H股股价 汇率 Ve= 561008 Vd= 50693 Ke= 12.0% Ku= 11.4% WACC= 8.06% u(ulevered)= 0.94 税率= 25% 2017E2018E 6.11%7.72% 59.33%58.67% 0.40%0.40% 3.40%3.40% 4.20%4.20% 25.00%25.00% 0.00%0.00% 52.00%54.00% 2017E2018E 30.00%30.00% 30.0030.00 1.10%1.10% 0.000.00 300.00300.00 0.000.00 22.0022.00 3.00%3.00% 0.50%0.50% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 5.00%5.00% 2017E2018E 47361.9148611.42 27420.6730428.56 0.001.00 1000.001000.00 0.001000.00 0.000.00 00 00 00 00 00 2017E2018E 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 一般情景预测 营业收入预测营业收入预测2003200420052006 工艺发条工艺发条销量(万条）600.00840.00960.001260.00 平均售价（元）63.9868.7065.9871.82 销售收入（万元）销售收入（万元）38,388.2457706.6663341.6190493.14 单位成本52.4958.5754.1059.77 销售成本销售成本31,492.4949197.6951934.2475305.32 毛利率毛利率17.96%14.75%18.01%16.78% 化纤发条化纤发条销量(万条）240.00450.00500.00820.00 平均售价（元）14.8917.4515.0315.91 销售收入（万元）销售收入（万元）3573.297853.807513.7313045.64 单位成本9.379.249.5810.27 销售成本销售成本2248.964159.284789.708419.21 毛利率毛利率37.06%47.04%36.25%35.46% 女装假发(化纤）女装假发(化纤）销量(万套）140.00210.00240.00250.00 平均售价（元）53.7047.5046.1646.13 销售收入（万元）销售收入（万元）7517.779974.9611078.2911532.42 单位成本34.0034.4730.4832.52 销售成本销售成本4759.387239.067314.248130.39 毛利率毛利率36.69%27.43%33.98%29.50% 教习头教习头销量(万个）18.0016.0016.0016.00 平均售价（元）80.0982.9082.3887.94 销售收入（万元）销售收入（万元）1441.541326.351318.051406.99 单位成本68.8770.2072.1282.38 销售成本销售成本1239.651123.231153.861318.05 毛利率毛利率14.01%15.31%12.46%6.32% 男装头套男装头套销量(万套）16.5016.0015.0025.00 平均售价（元）49.3852.4750.8471.11 销售收入（万元）销售收入（万元）814.83839.55762.591777.68 单位成本30.4735.0334.7730.50 销售成本销售成本502.77560.44521.57762.59 毛利率毛利率38.30%33.25%31.61%57.10% 人发假发人发假发销量(万套） 男装头套并入其中平均售价（元） 销售收入（万元）销售收入（万元） 单位成本 销售成本销售成本 毛利率毛利率 化纤发丝及阻燃纤维化纤发丝及阻燃纤维 销量(吨） 平均售价（万元） 销售收入（万元）销售收入（万元） 单位成本 销售成本销售成本 毛利率毛利率 非洲大辫非洲大辫销量（万条）销量（万条） 历史数据 平均售价（万元） 销售收入（万元）销售收入（万元） 单位成本 销售成本销售成本 毛利率毛利率 其他业务收入其他业务收入 其他业务成本其他业务成本 营业收入（万元）营业收入（万元）51735.6777701.3284014.27118255.87 营业收入增长率%营业收入增长率%50.19%8.12%40.76% 营业成本40243.2562279.7065713.6193935.56 毛利11492.4215421.6218300.6624320.31 综合毛利率综合毛利率22.21%19.85%21.78%20.57% 主营业务成本预测主营业务成本预测2003200420052006 分原料价格分原料价格 人发均价（元/千克）386.00435.00410.00460.00 化纤发丝均价（元/千克）40.0040.0041.0042.00 电均价0.300.320.340.39 煤均价220.00290.00315.00350.00 汽均价60.0065.0070.0080.00 万条工艺发条分原料使用量万条工艺发条分原料使用量 人发/千克1150.001150.001120.001100.00 电/度1800.001800.001750.001700.00 汽/立方米150.00150.00140.00135.00 万条工艺发条分结构成本（万元）万条工艺发条分结构成本（万元） 人发44.3950.0345.9250.60 辅助材料2.102.202.102.50 电、汽0.951.031.041.15 折旧费1.201.201.201.20 工资及福利3.403.603.503.90 其他费用0.450.510.340.42 合计52.4958.5754.1059.77 万条化纤发分原料使用量万条化纤发分原料使用量 化纤丝/吨1.151.151.101.10 电/度1000.001000.00900.00900.00 汽/立方米70.0070.0070.0065.00 万条化纤发条分结构成本（万元）万条化纤发条分结构成本（万元） 化纤丝4.604.604.514.62 辅助材料1.301.301.301.60 电、汽0.450.490.520.56 折旧费0.500.500.500.50 工资及福利2.202.202.502.60 其他费用0.190.150.250.39 合计9.379.249.5810.27 万套化纤假发分原料使用量万套化纤假发分原料使用量 化纤丝/吨2.402.402.302.30 电/度2000.002000.002000.002000.00 汽/立方米150.00150.00140.00140.00 万套化纤假发分结构成本(万元）万套化纤假发分结构成本(万元） 化纤丝9.609.609.439.66 辅助材料9.009.408.009.00 电、汽0.961.041.051.20 折旧费4.004.002.502.50 工资及福利9.009.009.009.00 其他费用1.441.430.501.16 合计34.0034.4730.4832.52 万套人发假发分原料使用量万套人发假发分原料使用量 人发/千克 电/度 汽/立方米 万套人发假发分结构成本(万元）万套人发假发分结构成本(万元） 人发 辅助材料 电、汽 折旧费 工资及福利 其他费用 合计 万个教习头分原料使用量万个教习头分原料使用量 人发/千克1250.001230.001220.001210.00 电/度2000.002000.002000.002000.00 汽/立方米120.00120.00120.00120.00 万个教习头分结构成本万个教习头分结构成本 人发48.2553.5150.0255.66 辅助材料7.006.008.0011.00 电、汽0.780.840.911.04 工资及福利7.607.008.009.00 折旧费4.002.004.004.00 其他费用1.240.851.191.68 合计合计68.8770.2072.1282.38 200720082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E 1120.001140.001260.01300.01300.01300.01300.01300.0 88.9075.7075.6079.0083.0089.0095.00100.00 99565.0486298.5695256102700107900115700123500130000 68.0457.2059.7061.6063.2064.6066.0067.60 76203.2365208.9275,222.0080,080.0082,160.0083,980.0085,800.0087,880.00 23.46%24.44%21.03%22.03%23.86%27.42%30.53%32.40% 980.001320.001560.001880.002000.002240.002500.002720.00 16.2918.6517.0017.5018.0018.2018.4018.60 15968.0724624.1526520.0032900.0036000.0040768.0046000.0050592.00 9.889.859.508.408.408.408.408.40 9680.5713005.6814820.0015792.0016800.0018816.0021000.0022848.00 39.38%47.18%44.12%52.00%53.33%53.85%54.35%54.84% 250.00320.00400480520570620660 43.0342.1141.4042.0042.0042.2042.4042.70 10756.9413474.34 16,560 20,160 21,840 24,054 26,288 28,182 28.4528.9028.0025.0025.0025.0025.0025.00 7112.329248.1911,200.0012,000.0013,000.0014,250.0015,500.0016,500.00 33.88%31.36%32.37%40.48%40.48%40.76%41.04%41.45% 16.0017.00171818181818 98.67106.6198.0102.0104.0107.0110.0112.0 1578.711812.41166618361872192619802016 89.8372.3376.0078.0080.0082.0084.0086.00 1437.301229.621,292.001,404.001,440.001,476.001,512.001,548.00 8.96%32.16%22.45%23.53%23.08%23.36%23.64%23.21% 60.0069.0090.0120.0150.0170.0190.0210.0 130.93119.39168175180184186189 7855.678237.73151202100027000312803534039690 95.5187.01118.00120.00122.00124.00126.00128.00 5730.406003.7910,620.0014,400.0018,300.0021,080.0023,940.0026,880.00 27.05%27.12%29.76%31.43%32.22%32.61%32.26%32.28% 900.002500.001000.002000.002000.004000.004000.00 1.921.922.503.003.003.003.00 1727.6048002500600060001200012000 1.611.611.902.002.002.002.00 1445.094,025.001,900.004,000.004,000.008,000.008,000.00 16.35%16.15%24.00%33.33%33.33%33.33%33.33% 200.001500.002500.002500.002500.003500.00 明确预测期 10.0010.0010.0010.0010.0010.00 2000.0015000.0025000.0025000.0025000.0035000.00 6.006.006.006.006.006.00 1200.009000.0015000.0015000.0015000.0021000.00 40.00%40.00%40.00%40.00%40.00%40.00% 266.52459.15600.00800.001000.001200.001400.001600.00 169.53370.53450.00640.00820.001000.001200.001400.00 135990.95136633.94160522.00196896.00226612.00245928.00271508.00299080.00 15.00%0.47%17.48%22.66%15.09%8.52%10.40%10.16% 100333.3596511.82117629.00135216.00151520.00159602.00171952.00186056.00 35657.6040122.1242893.061680.075092.086326.099556.0113024.0 26.22%29.36%26.72%31.33%33.14%35.10%36.67%37.79% 200720082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E 540.00440.00470.00490.00505.00515.00530.00545.00 43.0040.0038.0026.0026.0026.0026.0026.00 0.420.500.450.480.510.510.510.51 380.00580.00480.00500.00540.00540.00540.00540.00 88.00120.00100.00110.00120.00120.00120.00120.00 1080.001060.001,050.001,050.001,050.001,050.001,050.001,050.00 1600.001500.001,500.001,500.001,500.001,500.001,500.001,500.00 130.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00 58.3246.6449.3551.4553.0354.0855.6557.23 2.702.983.003.003.003.003.003.00 1.211.521.271.391.521.521.521.52 1.201.201.201.201.201.201.201.20 4.204.404.404.404.404.404.404.40 0.410.460.480.160.060.410.230.26 68.0457.2059.7061.6063.2064.6066.0067.60 1.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.05 800.00800.00800.00800.00800.00800.00800.00800.00 55.0050.0050.0050.0050.0050.0050.0050.00 4.524.203.992.732.732.732.732.73 1.701.801.801.801.801.801.801.80 0.520.640.540.590.640.640.640.64 0.200.200.200.200.200.200.200.20 2.702.802.802.802.802.802.802.80 0.250.210.170.280.230.230.230.23 9.889.859.508.408.408.408.408.40 2.202.202.102.102.102.102.102.10 2000.002000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.00 130.00130.00130.00130.00130.00130.00130.00130.00 9.468.807.985.465.465.465.465.46 7.207.607.207.207.207.207.207.20 1.231.661.391.531.661.661.661.66 1.241.241.241.241.241.241.241.24 9.009.009.009.009.009.009.009.00 0.320.601.190.570.440.440.440.44 28.4528.9028.0025.0025.0025.0025.0025.00 1.901.901.901.901.901.901.901.90 3000.003000.003,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.00 260.00260.00260.00260.00260.00260.00260.00260.00 61.5654.3464.3069.8371.9673.3975.5377.66 14.0012.0012.0012.0012.0012.0012.0012.00 2.413.272.743.003.273.273.273.27 2.002.002.002.002.002.002.002.00 14.5014.5035.0033.0032.0032.0032.0032.00 1.040.901.970.170.761.341.201.06 95.5187.01118.00120.00122.00124.00126.00128.00 1190.001180.001,180.001,180.001,180.001,180.001,180.001,180.00 2000.002000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.00 120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00 64.2651.9255.4657.8259.5960.7762.5464.31 12.007.957.957.957.957.957.957.95 1.141.541.291.421.541.541.541.54 9.007.967.967.967.968.508.509.00 2.802.402.402.402.402.402.402.40 0.630.560.940.450.560.841.070.80 89.8372.3376.0078.0080.0082.0084.0086.00 2015E2016E2017E2018E 1300.01300.01300.01300.0 105.00110.00118.00123.00 136500143000153400159900 69.0070.6072.2073.60 89,700.0091,780.0093,860.0095,680.00 34.29%35.82%38.81%40.16% 2940.003100.003340.003600.00 18.8019.0019.0019.20 55272.0058900.0063460.0069120.00 8.408.408.408.40 24696.0026040.0028056.0030240.00 55.32%55.79%55.79%56.25% 700740780820 43.0043.3043.6043.90 30,100 32,042 34,008 35,998 25.0025.0025.0025.00 17,500.0018,500.0019,500.0020,500.00 41.86%42.26%42.66%43.05% 18181818 114.0116.0118.0122.0 2052208821242196 88.0090.0092.0094.00 1,584.001,620.001,656.001,692.00 22.81%22.41%22.03%22.95% 230.0250.0270.0290.0 192194196198 44160485005292057420 130.00132.00134.00136.00 29,900.0033,000.0036,180.0039,440.00 32.29%31.96%31.63%31.31% 4000.005500.005500.005500.00 3.003.003.003.00 12000165001650016500 2.002.002.002.00 8,000.0011,000.0011,000.0011,000.00 33.33%33.33%33.33%33.33% 3500.005000.005000.006000.00 长期预测期 10.0010.0010.0010.00 35000.0050000.0050000.0060000.00 6.006.006.006.00 21000.0030000.0030000.0036000.00 40.00%40.00%40.00%40.00% 1800.002000.002200.002400.00 1600.001800.002000.002200.00 316884.00353030.00374612.00403534.00 5.95%11.41%6.11%7.72% 193980.00213740.00222252.00236752.00 122904.0139290.0152360.0166782.0 38.79%39.46%40.67%41.33% 2015E2016E2017E2018E 560.00575.00590.00600.00 26.0026.0026.0026.00 0.510.510.510.51 540.00540.00540.00540.00 120.00120.00120.00120.00 1,050.001,050.001,050.001,050.00 1,500.001,500.001,500.001,500.00 120.00120.00120.00120.00 58.8060.3861.9563.00 3.003.003.003.00 1.521.521.521.52 1.201.201.201.20 4.404.404.404.40 0.080.110.130.48 69.0070.6072.2073.60 1.051.051.051.05 800.00800.00800.00800.00 50.0050.0050.0050.00 2.732.732.732.73 1.801.801.801.80 0.640.640.640.64 0.200.200.200.20 2.802.802.802.80 0.230.230.230.23 8.408.408.408.40 2.102.102.102.10 2,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.00 130.00130.00130.00130.00 5.465.465.465.46 7.207.207.207.20 1.661.661.661.66 1.241.241.241.24 9.009.009.009.00 0.440.440.440.44 25.0025.0025.0025.00 1.901.901.901.90 3,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.00 260.00260.00260.00260.00 79.8081.9484.0885.50 12.0012.0012.0012.00 3.273.273.273.27 2.002.002.002.00 32.0032.0032.0032.00 0.930.790.651.23 130.00132.00134.00136.00 1,180.001,180.001,180.001,180.00 2,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.00 120.00120.00120.00120.00 66.0867.8569.6270.80 7.957.957.957.95 1.541.541.541.54 9.009.509.5010.00 2.402.402.402.40 1.030.760.991.31 88.0090.0092.0094.00 情景分析情景分析 选择情景2一般假设一般假设 年度年度20082009E2010E2011E2012E 1 销售收入增长率（YOY）0.47%17.48%22.66%15.09%8.52% 2 营业成本/营业收入70.64%73.28%68.67%66.86%64.90% 3 销售费用率3.02%3.50%3.50%3.40%3.40% 管理费用率3.84%5.00%4.60%4.40%4.30% 股利分配比例17.57%30.00%35.00%40.00%42.00% 1乐观假设乐观假设 销售收入增长率（YOY）0.52%19.23%24.93%16.60%9.38% 营业成本/营业收入69.22%71.81%67.30%65.53%63.60% 销售费用率2.87%3.33%3.33%3.23%3.23% 管理费用率3.64%4.75%4.37%4.18%4.09% 股利分配比例22.57%35.00%40.00%45.00%47.00% 2一般假设一般假设 销售收入增长率（YOY）0.47%17.48%22.66%15.09%8.52% 营业成本/营业收入70.64%73.28%68.67%66.86%64.90% 销售费用率3.02%3.50%3.50%3.40%3.40% 管理费用率3.84%5.00%4.60%4.40%4.30% 股利分配比例17.57%30.00%35.00%40.00%42.00% 3保守预测保守预测 销售收入增长率（YOY）0.43%15.73%20.39%13.58%7.67% 营业成本/营业收入72.05%74.74%70.05%68.20%66.20% 销售费用率3.17%3.68%3.68%3.57%3.57% 管理费用率4.03%5.25%4.83%4.62%4.52% 股利分配比例12.57%25.00%30.00%35.00%37.00% 情景分析结果情景分析结果20082009E2010E2011E2012E 营业收入营业收入136634160522196896226612245928 乐观假设乐观假设1136634162911203518237305259555 一般假设一般假设2136634160522196896226612245928 保守预测保守预测3136634158133190383216242232831 营业利润营业利润2487723447403245239062686 乐观假设乐观假设12487726952454555915570734 一般假设一般假设22487723447403245239062686 保守预测保守预测32487720031354514606955231 净利润净利润2205218757322594191247014 乐观假设乐观假设122052.021561.836363.947324.153050.1 一般假设一般假设222052.018757.232259.141911.947014.4 保守预测保守预测322052.016025.028360.936855.141423.2 EPS0.470.300.520.680.76 乐观假设乐观假设10.470.350.590.770.86 一般假设一般假设20.470.300.520.680.76 保守预测保守预测30.470.260.460.600.67 2013E2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E 10.40%10.16%5.95%11.41%6.11%7.72% 63.33%62.21%61.21%60.54%59.33%58.67% 3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40% 4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20% 44.00%46.00%48.00%50.00%52.00%54.00% 11.44%11.17%6.55%12.55%6.72%8.49% 62.07%60.97%59.99%59.33%58.14%57.50% 3.23%3.23%3.23%3.23%3.23%3.23% 3.99%3.99%3.99%3.99%3.99%3.99% 49.00%51.00%53.00%55.00%57.00%59.00% 10.40%10.16%5.95%11.41%6.11%7.72% 63.33%62.21%61.21%60.54%59.33%58.67% 3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40% 4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20% 44.00%46.00%48.00%50