咨询公司case分析方法.doc

Caseinterview分析工具分析工具框架框架来源：张旭的日志最近在准备最近在准备CASEINTERVIEW，刚接触这个，对里面涉及到的，刚接触这个，对里面涉及到的FRAMEWORK和和STRATEGY非常不熟悉，偶获珍宝，与诸君共享。顺便攒非常不熟悉，偶获珍宝，与诸君共享。顺便攒RP！案例面试分析工具案例面试分析工具框架框架一一BusinessStrategy1市场进入类行业分析（波特5力，市场趋势，市场规模，市场份额，市场壁垒等）公司宏观环境（人口，经济，自然，技术，政治），公司微观环境（公司，供应商，市场中介，顾客，竞争对手，大众）3C（CompetitorConsumerCompanyCapabilities）Cost-revenue固定成本，可变成本收入怎么计算？时间序列估计，可比公司估计市场细分很重要，nichemarketA.地理细分B.人口细分（年龄及生命周期阶段细分，性别细分，收入细分）C.心理细分（社会阶层，生活方式，个性特征）D.行为细分（购买时机-柯达，利益细分-牙膏，用户状况，使用率，忠诚度）2行业分析类市场（市场规模，市场细分，产品需求趋势分析，客户需求）竞争（竞争对手的经济情况，产品差异化，市场整合度，产业集中度）顾客供应商关系（谈判能力，替代者，评估垂直整合）进入离开的障碍（评估公司进入离开。对新加入者的反应，经济规模，预测学习曲线，研究政府调控）资金金融（主要金融资金来源，产业风险因素，可变成本固定成本）风险预测与防范3新产品引入类营销调研产品？价格？即4P4C(CustomerCompetitionCostCapabilities)市场促销，分校渠道（渠道选择，库存，运输，仓储）STP和4P（ProductPricePlacePromotion）产品生命周期二二BusinessOperation1市场容量扩张（竞争对手，消费者，自己实力）2利润改善型RevenueCost分析，到底是销售额下降造成，还是成本上升造成如果销售额下降，看4P了（是价格过高？产品质量问题？分校渠道问题？还是promotion的efficacy有问题？）如果成本上升，看固定成本or可变成本是否有问题？（固定成本过高，设备是否老化，需要关闭生产线、厂房，降低管理者工资等，可变成本过高，看原材料价格是否上升，有没有降低的可能，switchsuppliers还是人员工资过高，需要裁员等）成本结构是否合理，产能利用率如何（闲置率）3.推销任何一种产品服务4P，3c4.定价以成本为基础的定价成本加成定价，以目标利润（盈亏平衡定价）以价值为基础定价以竞争为基础定价三三MarketSizingEstimation市场趋势，市场规模，市场份额，市场壁垒等市场集中度市场驱动因素（价格，服务，质量，外观）关键成功要素KSF四四M&A类类整合原因（synergyscalemanagementimpulseTaxconsiderationDiversificationBreakupValue）5C（CharacterCapacityCapitalConditionsCompetitiveAdvantage）类型：horizontalverticalcongenericconglomerate估值方法：DFC，MarketMultiple(EBITDA，PE，PB)DFC：ProaCashFlowStatement，DiscountRateHostileVSFriendlytakeovers所有咨询公司面试可能用到的分析结构所有咨询公司面试可能用到的分析结构Advancedconcepts&frameworksMBAsandothercandidateswithbusinessbackgroundtakenote-interviewerswillexpectyoutohaveamoredetailedtakeonyourcasethananundergraduatewouldhave.Herearesomecommonlyusedcaseconcepts.NetpresentvaluePerhapsthemostimportanttypeofdecisioncompanymanagersmustmakeonadailybasisiswhethertoundertakeaproposedinvestment.ForexampleshouldthecompanybuyacertainpieceofequipmentBuildaparticularfactoryInvestinanewprojectThesetypesofdecisionsarecalledcapitalbudgetingdecisions.Theconsultantmakessuchdecisionsbycalculatingthenetpresentvalueofeachproposedinvestmentandmakingonlythoseinvestmentsthathavepositivenetpresentvalues.Example:HernandezistheCFOofWesternManufacturingCorp.anautomobilemanufacturer.ThecompanyisconsideringopeninganewfactoryinOhiothatwillrequireaninitialinvestmentof$1million.Thecompanyforecaststhatthefactorywillgenerateafter-taxcashflowsof$100000inYear1$200000inYear2$400000inYear3and$400000inYear4.AttheendofYear4thecompanywouldthensellthefactoryfor$200000.Thecompanyusesadiscountrateof12percent.Hernandezmustdeterminewhetherthecompanyshouldgoaheadandbuildthefactory.TomakethisdecisionHernandezmustcalculatethenetpresentvalueoftheinvestment.Thecashflowsassociatedwiththefactoryareasfollows:HernandezthencalculatestheNPVofthefactoryasfollows:SincethefactoryhasanegativenetpresentvalueHernandezcorrectlydecidesthatthefactoryshouldnotbebuilt.ThenetpresentvalueruleNotefromtheexampleabovethatoncetheconsultanthasfiguredouttheNPVofaproposedinvestmentshethendecideswhethertoundertaketheinvestmentbyapplyingthenetpresentvaluerule:Makeonlythoseinvestmentsthathaveapositivenetpresentvalue.Aslongastheconsultantfollowsthisruleshecanbeconfidentthateachinvestmentismakingapositivenetcontributiontothecompany.TheCapitalAssetPricingModel(CAPM)Intheaboveexampleweassumedagivendiscountrate.Howeverpartofaconsultantsjobistodetermineanappropriatediscountrate(r)tousewhencalculatingnetpresentvalues.Thediscountratemayvarydependingontheinvestment.BetaThefirststepinarrivingatanappropriatediscountrateforagiveninvestmentisdeterminingtheinvestmentsriskiness.Themarketriskofaninvestmentismeasuredbyitsbeta()whichmeasuresriskinesswhencomparedtothemarketasawhole.Aninvestmentwithabetaof1hasthesameriskinessasthemarketasawhole(soforexamplewhenthemarketmovesdown10percentthueoftheinvestmentwillonaveragefall10percentaswell).Aninvestmentwithbetaof2willbetwiceasriskyasthemarket(sowhenthemarketfalls10percentthueoftheinvestmentwillonaveragefall20percent).CAPMOncetheconsultanthasdeterminedthebetaofaproposedinvestmenthecanusetheCapitalAssetPricingModel(CAPM)tocalculatetheappropriatediscountrate(r):Therisk-freerateofreturnisthereturnthecompanycouldreceivebymakingarisk-freeinvestment(forexamplebyinvestinginU.S.Treasurybills).Themarketrateofreturnisthereturnthecompanycouldreceivebyinvestinginawell-diversifiedportfolioofstocks(forexampleS&P500).Example:ShenInc.acoalproducerisconsideringinvestinginanewventurethatwouldmanufactureandmarketcarbonfilters.ShenschieffinancialofficerApelbaumwantstocalculatetheNPVoftheproposedventureinordertodeterminewhetherthecompanyshouldmaketheinvestment.AfterstudyingtheriskinessoftheproposedventureApelbaumdeterminesthatthebetaoftheinvestmentis1.5.AU.S.Treasurynoteofcomparablematuritycurrentlyyields7percentwhilethereturnontheS&P500stockindexis12percent.ThereforethediscountrateApelbaumwillusewhencalculatingtheNPVoftheinvestmentwillbe:Althoughthisisanoverlysimplifieddiscussionofhowconsultantscalculatediscountratetouseintheircash-flowanalysisitdoesgiveyouanoverviewofhowconsultantsincorporatethenotionofaninvestmentsmarkettoselecttheappropriatediscountrate.PortersFiveForcesDevelopedbyHarvardBusinessSchoolprofessorMichaelPorterinhisbookCompetitiveStrategythePortersFiveForcesframeworkhelpsdeterminetheattractivenessofanindustry.BeforeanycompanyexpandsintonewmarketsdivestsproductlinesacquiresnewbusinessesorsellsdivisionsitshouldaskitselfIstheindustrywereenteringorexitingattractiveByusingPortersFiveForcesacompanycanbegintodevelopathoughtfulanswer.ConsultantsfrequentlyutilizePortersFiveForcesasastartingpointtohelpcompaniesuateindustryattractiveness.Takeforexampleentryintothecopystoremarket(likeKinkos).HowattractiveisthecopystoremarketPotentialentrants:WhatisthethreatofnewentrantsintothemarketCopystoresarenotveryexpensivetoopen-youcanconceivablyopenacopystorewithonecopierandoneemployee.Thereforebarrierstoentryarelowsotheresahighriskofpotentialnewentrants.Buyerpower:HowmuchbargainingpowerdobuyershaveCopystorecustomersarerelativelypricesensitive.Betweenthechoiceofacopystorethatcharges5centsacopyandastorethatcharges6centsacopybuyerswillusuallyheadforthecheaperstore.Becausecopystoresarecommonbuyershavetheleveragetobargainwithcopystoreownersonlargeprintjobsthreateningtotaketheirbusinesselsewhere.Theonlymitigatingfactorsarelocationandhours.Ontheotherhandpriceisnottheonlyfactor.Copystoresthatarewillingtostayopen24hoursmaybeabletochargeapremiumandcustomersmaysimplypatronizethecopystoreclosesttothemifotherlocationsarerelativelyinconvenient.Supplierpower:HowmuchbargainingpowerdosuppliershaveWhilepaperpricesmaybeontherisecopierpricescontinuetofall.Theskilllevelemployeesneedtooperateacopyshop(forbasicserviceslikecopyingcollatingetc.)arerelativelylowaswellmeaningthatemployeeswillhavelittlebargainingpower.Suppliersinthissituationhavelowbargainingpower.Threatofsubstitutes:WhatistheriskofsubstitutionForbasiccopyingjobsmorepeoplenowpossesscolorprintersathome.Additionallyfaxmachineshavethecapabilitytofulfillcopyfunctionsaswell.Largecompanieswillnormallyhavetheirowncopyingfacilities.Howeverforlarge-scaleprojectsmostindividualsandemployeesatsmallcompanieswillstillusetheservicesofacopyshop.TheInternetisapotentialthreattocopystoresaswellbecausesomedocumentsthaterlywouldbedistributedinhardcopywillnowbepostedontheWeborsentthroughe-mail.Howeverforthetimebeingthereisstillrelativelystrongdemandforcopystoreservices.Competition:Competitionwithintheindustryappearstobeintense.Storesoftencompeteonpriceandarewillingtounderbidoneanothertowinprintingcontracts.Storescontinuetoaddnewfeaturestocompeteaswellsuchasexpandinghoursto24-hourserviceandofferingfreedelivery.Fromthisanalysisyoucanascertainthatcopystoresaresomethingofacommoditymarket.Consumersareveryprice-sensitivecopystoresareinexpensivetosetupandthemarketisrelativelyeasilyenteredbycompetitors.Advancesintechnologymayreducethesizeofthecopystoremarket.Value-addedservicessuchaslatehoursconvenientlocationsoradditionalservicessuchascreatingcalendarsorstickersmayhelpcopystoresdifferentiatethemselves.Butoverallthecopystoreindustrydoesnotappeartobeanattractiveone.Asdot-comscomeunderfireonecasequestionweveheardincreasinglyisHowwouldyoucreatebarrierstoentryasanInternetStartupProductlifecyclecurveIfyoureconsideringaproductcasefigureouthowmatureyourproductorserviceisStrategytoolframeworkchartHeresonewaytothinkaboutthechoicebetweenbeingthelowest-costproviderorcarvingoutahigher-endmarketniche-whatconsultantscalldifferentiation.TheFourPsThisisausefulframeworkforuatingmarketingcases.Itcanbeappliedtobothproductsandservices.TheFourPsconsistof:PriceThepriceafirmsetsforitsproductservicecanbeastrategicadvantage.Forexampleitcanbepredatory(setverylowtoundercutthecompetition)oritcanbesetslightlyabovemarketaveragetoconveyapremiumimage.Considerhowpricingisbeingusedinthecontextofthecasepresentedtoyou.ProductTheproduct(orservice)mayprovidestrategicadvantageifitistheonlyproductservicethatsatisfiesaparticularintersectionofcustomerneeds.Oritmaysimplybeanextensionofalreadyexistingproductsandthereforenotmuchofabenefit.Trytoteaseoutthueoftheproductinthemarketplacebasedonthecasedetailsyouhavebeengiven.PositionPlaceThephysicallocationofaproductservicecanprovideanadvantageifitissuperiortoitscompetitionifitiseasierormoreconvenientforpeopletoconsumeorifitmakestheconsumermoreawareoftheproductserviceoveritscompetition.Inthecontextofabusinesscaseyoumaywanttodeterminetheplacementoftheproductorservicecomparedtoitscompetition.PromotionWithsomuchnoiseintodaysconsumer(andbusinesstobusiness)marketplaceitisdifficultforanyoneproductservicetostandoutinacategory.Promotionalactivity(includingadvertisingdiscountingtoconsumersandsupplierscelebrityappearancesetc.)canbeusedtocreateormaintainconsumerawarenessopennewmarketsortargetaspecificcompetitor.Youmaywanttosuggestapromotionalstrategyinthecontextofthecaseyouarepresentedrelativetothepromotionalactivityofothercompetingproductsservices.TheFourCsTheFourCsareespeciallyusefulforanalyzingnewproductintroductionsandforindustryanalysis.CustomersHowisthemarketsegmentedWhatarethepurchasecriteriathatcustomersuseCompetitionWhatisthemarketshareoftheclientsWhatisitsmarketpositionWhatisitsstrategyWhatisitscostpositionDoesheshehaveanymarketadvantagesCostWhatkindofeconomiesofscaledoestheclienthaveWhatistheclientsexperiencecurveWillincreasedproductionlowercostCapabilitiesWhatresourcescantheclientdrawfromHowistheclientorganizedWhatistheproductionsystemTheFiveCsThisframeworkismostlyappliedtofinancialcasesandtocompanies(althoughitcanbeappliedtoindividuals).Youmayemployitinothersituationsifyouthinkitisappropriate.Characteruatethededicationtrackrecordandoverallconsumerperceptionofthecompany.ArethereanylegalactionspendingagainstthecompanyIfsoforwhatreasonIsthecompanyprogressiveaboutitswastedisposalqualityoflifeforitsemployeesandcharitablecontributionsWhatsortofimpactwouldthishaveonthecaseyouareuatingCapacityIfyouaredealingwithamanufacturingentityareitsfactoriesataboveorbelowcapacityandforwhatreasonsArethereplanstoaddnewplantsimprovethetechnologyinexistingplantsorcloseunderperingplantsWhataboutproductionoverseasCapitalWhatisthecompanyscostofcapitalrelativetoitscompetitorsHowhealthyareitscashflowsrevenuesanddebtloadrelativetoitscompetitionConditionsWhatisthecurrentbusinessclimatethecompany(anditsindustry)facesWhatistheshort-andlong-termgrowthpotentialintheindustryHowisthemarketcharacterizedIsitemergingormatureThesequestionscanassistyouinuatingthefactsofthecaseagainsttheenvironmentthatthecompanyindustryinhabits.CompetitiveAdvantageThisistheuniqueedgeacompanypossessesoveritscompetitors.Itcanbeanunparalleledsetofbusinessprocessestheabilitytoproduceaproductserviceatalowercostchargeamarketpremiumoranynumberofotherassetsthatcreateanadvantageoverothermarketplayers.Whateverthecasetheseadvantagesareusuallydefensibleandnoteasilycopied.InuatingbusinesscasesusingtheFiveCsframeworkyoushouldlookforthoseuniquequalitiesthatacompanypossessesandidentifyanythatmeetthecriteriamentionedabove.Youmaysuggestthatthecompanyleverageitscompetitiveadvantagemoreaggressivelyorrecommendalternativesifthatcompanyhasnodiscernibleadvantage.ValueChainAnalysisThisapproachinvolvesassessingacompanysoverallbusinessprocessesandidentifyingwherethatcompanyactuallyaddsvaluetoaproductorservice.Thetotalmarginofprofitwillbethueoftheproductorservicetobuyerslessthecostofitsproductionasdeterminedbythuechain.Inmostcasesacompetitiveadvantageisonlytemporaryanyoftodaysproductsservices.Beingfirsttomarkethavingauniqueulaorconfigurationorhavingexclusivityinamarketwereoncelong-termdefensiblestrategies.Buttodaybusinessesaregloballyconnectedbylightning-fastcommunicationsandknowledge-sharingsystemsandmanufacturingtechnologiesaregettingbetterandfasteratreactingtoandanticipatingmarketconditions.Thustheseadvantagesareonlyfleetingormaynotexistatall.ValueChainAnalysisattemptstoidentifyacompetitiveadvantagebydeconstructingthevariouschangesacompanysbusinessprocessesperonasetofrawmaterialsorothers.Mostcanbeeasilycopiedbyothercompetitorsbutthereisusuallyauniquesubsetthatrepresentsthevalue-addedqualitiesonlythecompanyunderscrutinypossesses.Thissetisthatcompanyscompetitiveadvantageorvaluechain.Sometimesthissetcanbecopiedbutauniquesetofcircumstancesmaystillallowthecompanyinquestiontoperthematalowercostchargeapremiuminthemarketorretainhighermarketsharethanitscompetitors.Inthecontextofabusinesscaseyoucanusethisframeworktoidentifyacompanysoverallbusinessprocessessetandthendetermineifoneormoreoftheprocessesaredefensiblecompetitiveadvantages.Forexampleamanufactureroffruitjuicemighthavethefollowingvaluechainelements:Researchanddevelopment(Willmangoreallytastegoodwithcloudberryjuice)Costofgoodssold(HowmuchdoesitcosttomanufacturethefruitjuiceIsthereafrostinFloridathatdrivesupthecostsoforangesIsthecurrencycrisisinIndonesiamakingpapayaverycheapAreper-volumepurchaseslowerthanforexamplethoseofTropicana)Packagingandshipping(Howmuchdoesthatnewbanana-shapedcontainercostAremanybottleslostintransitWhatarethefixedcostsofshipping)Manufacturing(HowmuchdothosejuicepulperscostHowoftendofactoriesneedtobereengineered)Labor(HowmanyemployeesdowehaveWherearetheylocatedAretheyunionized)Distribution(WherearethedistributioncentersWherearetheproductsdistributed)Advertising(BillboardsTVmagazines)Margin(Howprofitableisthejuicecompany)oredetailedinationonthistypeofanalysisyoumaywanttoconsidertheauthoritativetextoncompetitivestrategy:CompetitiveStrategy:TechniquesforAnalyzingIndustriesandCompetitorsbyMichaelE.Porter.CorecompetenciesCorecompetenciesistheideathateachfirmhasalimitednumberofthingsitisverygoodat(thatisitscorecompetenceorcompetencies).Whenrestructuringorreengineeringoneofthestartingpointsforacompanyshouldbeidentifyingitscorecompetencies.Afirmshoulddefineitscorecompetenciesbroadlyinordertobeflexibleenoughtoadapttochangesinthemarketplace.(ForinstancewhenXeroxdefineditselfasadocumentcompanyratherthanamakerofcopymachinesitwasabletotakeadvantageofthemorelucrativebusinessofdocumenthandlingandoutsourcingajorcorporationsaswellasofthemarketforfaxmachinesscannersandotherdocument-handlingequipment.)Companiesshouldseriouslyconsidersellingspinningoffbusinessunitsthatarenotpartoftheircorebusiness.ForinstancePepsirecentlyspunoffitsrestaurantoperationsafteritconcludedthatitsexpertisewasinmanufacturingandmarketingbeveragesnotinmanagingrestaurants.BenchmarkingandbestpracticesAcommonlyusedconceptinconsulting(especiallyinoperationsandimplementationengagements)isbenchmarking.Benchmarkingbasicallymeansresearchingwhatothercompaniesintheindustryaredoing(usuallyinordertouatewhetheryourclientisoperatingefficientlyortoidentifyareaswheretheclientcancutcosts).Forexampleifamail-ordercompanywantstoreduceitsorder-processingcostsitwouldwanttocompareitsorderprocessingcostswiththoseofothermail-ordercompaniesbreakingdownitscostsforeachpartoftheprocess(includingorder-takingandshipping)andcomparingthemwithindustryaverages.Itcanthenpinpointthoseareaswhereitscostsarehigherthanaveragefortheindustry.Arelatedconceptisbestpractices:onceyouvebenchmarkedwhatothercompaniesaredoingyouwanttofocusonthosecompaniesthathaveparticularlowcostsorwhichotherwiseoperateparticularlywell.Whataretheydoingright(i.e.whataretheirbestpractices)Andhowcanourclient(inthecase)emulateorcopywhattheyredoingRemembertolookoutsideyourclientsparticularindustryifnecessarytofindthebestpracticesforaparticularprocessoroperation.The2x2matrixThe2x2matrixisagoodframeworktouseanytimeyouhavetwofactorsthatwhencombinedyielddifferentoutcomes.Averyrudimentaryexamplewouldbewhathappenswhenyouturnonyourbathroomfaucetsasfollows:Amorebusiness-appropriateexamplewouldinvolveacquiringacompany.Letssayacompanyisinterestedinunderstandingthedifficultyofacquiringorbuildingadistributioncenteranditisconsideri