BEC考试精选阅读材料.doc

BEC考试阅读材料精选（一） For the markets, rate cuts are like a drug. They can inspire euphoria, but can also induce dependency. Markets, like addicts, need bigger and bigger doses to get the same effect. This has framed the markets prognosis for the Federal Reserve, which today meets to decide on monetary policy. When it cut by 50 basis points in September, it sparked a huge rally. But cutting by only 25bp in October prompted a relapse, as US stocks fell and credit tightened once more. With Fed governors admitting that the liquidity squeeze had intensified and traders betting on a recession, markets decided that another 50bp cut must be forthcoming. That sparked the latest rally. But that speculation is dimming: futures are pricing a cut of 25bp not 50bp.Why? Central banks sounded hawkish last week. The Bank of England cut the bank rate but warned on inflation, and the European Central Bank, which was on hold, sounded closer to raising rates than cutting them.Most important, however, is employment data. The Fed is mandated to pursue full employment, so bad jobs numbers provide great cover for a big rate cut. Last Fridays non-farm payrolls did not provide it. The number employed rose by 94,000, compared with forecasts of 80,000. This data refuses to slip into recession territory. The household survey, compiled by polling households rather than companies, even shows jobs growth picking up slightly. Can the Fed rest its diagnosis on this data? Firms tracking the money companies withhold for tax purposes warn that job growth seems to have stopped. But the Fed does not want to induce a dependency culture in the markets, and it does not want to signal that it is scared of a recession. A 25bp cut in the Fed Funds rate, possibly with a steeper cut to the higher discount rate, at which it lends to banks, looks the most likely prescription.对市场而言，降息犹如毒品。它们能让人兴奋，但也能导致依赖。就像瘾君子一样，市场需要越来越大的剂量，才能达到同样的效果。这就为美联储(Fed)圈定了市场可能会有的症状。今天，美联储将开会决定货币政策。当它今年9月降息50个基点时，曾引发市场大幅上扬。但是，由于10月仅降息25个基点，导致市场故态复萌：美国股市下跌，信贷再次紧缩。 由于美联储官员承认流动性紧缩有所加剧，交易员猜测会出现经济衰退，因此，市场认为美联储将再次降息50个基点。这引发了最近的上涨。不过，这种猜测正在渐渐降温：期货价格显示市场预计降息25个基点、而非50个基点为什么呢？各国央行上周听起来还很强硬。英国央行(Bank of England)降低了利率，但发出了通胀警告。按兵不动的欧洲央行(European Central Bank)听起来更像要加息，而不是降息。然而，最重要的是就业数据。美联储受命实现完全就业，因此，糟糕的就业数据可以为大幅降息提供很好的借口。上周五公布的非农就业数据无法提供这个借口。就业人数增加了9.4万人，高于此前预测的8万人。这样的数据显示，经济没有滑入衰退区间。通过调查家庭而非调查企业汇编的家庭调查甚至显示，就业增速还略有上扬。美联储可以依据这个数据做出诊断吗？追踪企业税项拨备的公司警告称，这种就业增长似乎已经停止。不过，美联储并不想在市场上诱导“瘾君子文化”，也不想表现出自己害怕经济衰退。看起来，美联储最可能开具的药方是：联邦基金利率降低25个基点，并可能更大幅度降低其贷款给各银行所依据的较高的贴现率。BEC考试阅读材料精选（二） 女巫的超前思维Dear Economist, There is a legend about the last king of the Romans, Tarquin. An old witch came to Tarquin, and offered to sell him nine books of prophecy at an exorbitant price. Tarquin laughed at the offer. The witch burned three of the books, and then offered to sell him the remaining six for the original price. Tarquin refused again. The witch burned three more books and offered to sell Tarquin the three books that were left for the original price that she had demanded for nine. This time Tarquin was scared that he might be losing something precious, and bought the remaining three books for the price that the witch asked. What sort of demand curve is that?亲爱的经济学家：有一个关于古罗马末代君王塔尔坎(Tarquin)的传说。一位老女巫走到塔尔坎面前，提出以高昂的价格卖给他9本预言书。塔尔坎对这一提议不以为然。女巫烧毁了其中的3本书，然后提出以原价卖给他剩下的6本。塔尔坎再次拒绝了。女巫又烧毁了3本，然后同样以最初9本的价格向塔尔坎出售剩下的3本。这一次，塔尔坎担心自己可能会错失一些宝贵的东西，于是以女巫索要的价格买下了剩余3本书。这反映了什么样的需求曲线呢？Dear Mr McMahon, Forget the demand curve; this is a two-player negotiation over the division of economic surplus. Tarquin was always willing to pay a high price but hoped to get a bargain. The sibyl (witch is such an uncouth label) responded with a supply constriction designed to drive up the price. Tarquin might have thought that the sibyl had just one rival buyer, and if each buyer wanted only one trilogy, that would be a supply glut. Once there was only one trilogy available for two buyers, Tarquin knew he was in a serious auction and made a pre-emptive offer. Another possibility is that the sibyl was dealing with the so- called durable monopoly problem. Tarquin knew that the sibyl might sell him an expensive trilogy, and then come back later with a cut- price offer to buy a second or third. By destroying two trilogies, the sibyl enabled herself to make a credible, take-it-or-leave-it offer. Forward-thinking stuff, but then, she was flogging prophecies. 亲爱的麦克马洪：忘掉需求曲线吧；这是一个关于经济盈余分配的两方谈判。塔尔坎始终愿意出高价，但同时希望能够还价。女预言家（女巫听上去让人不太舒服）则用限制供应的方法来应对，意在推升价格。塔尔坎可能会认为，这个女预言家只有一位竞争性买家，如果每位买家都只想要3本书的话，这将形成供过于求的局面。而一旦出现两位买家只有3本书可买的情况，塔尔坎明白，他正面临严峻的局面，因而抢先报出了价格。还有一种可能性是，女预言家正在解决一个所谓的持久垄断的问题。塔尔坎知道，女预言家可能会以高价向他出售3本书，然后再回头以低价出售另外3本或6本。而通过烧毁6本书，女预言家让自己能够提出一个真正要不要随你的出价。这是一种超前思维，但话说回来，她本来就是在推销预言。BEC考试阅读材料精选（三） The number of US students going to graduate school for science and engineering hit an all-time high in 2005, offering a glimmer of hope to policymakers and business chiefs who have lamented that Americans are not interested in science. A new survey conducted by the National Science Foundation shows that enrolment of US citizens and permanent residents in science and engineering graduate programmes increased 2 per cent, to a record 339,550. The survey also showed a 4 per cent rise in first-time enrolments by foreign students, following three years of decline. However, total enrolment of foreign students in those subjects dropped 3 per cent - the second year in a row with a decline. Kei Koizumi, the director of the R&D budget and policy programme at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, called the surveys findings mixed. The good news, according to most policymakers, is that it appears Americans are going into science and engineering in greater numbers, he said. But the drop in foreign students - whether its because of real or perceived visa problems, or because students find it more attractive to study in other nations - is not as encouraging. Applications from international students fell after the State Department imposed restrictions on foreign students in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks. The single biggest challenge for colleges and universities being able to recruit top talent from around the world is our immigration system, said Robert Hoffman, the vice-president of government and public affairs at Oracle, the software company. The system is working as a barrier to recruitment. Its saying: you might be able to get a top-flight education at a US university but you might not be able to get a top-flight job at a US company after you graduate. Total engineering enrolments fell by 2.5 per cent, largely because of a decline in foreign students, but total enrolments in mathematics and the physical sciences rose slightly, according to the survey. Enrolment of US citizens increased in all three categories but by less than 1 per cent in each。 Susan Traiman, the director of education and workforce policy at the Business Roundtable, said she was concerned that US graduate schools were losing their edge in attracting the most talented foreign students, as other countries, such as the UK and Australia, boosted their investment in graduate education and embarked on campaigns to recruit top domestic and international students. What these numbers seem to be saying is that top talent has many more options now, she said. If we dont have enough Americans going into these fields, and if we dont have the foreign talent to fill the gaps, it jeopardises US innovation - and that is the underpinning of American competitiveness. 美国理工专业回暖，2005年攻读科学与工程专业研究生的美国学生数量达到历史新高，让哀叹美国人对科学不感兴趣的决策者和企业总裁们看到了一线希望。美国国家科学基金会(National Science Foundation)的最新调查显示，入读科学与工程研究生课程的美国公民和永久性居民人数增长了2%，达到创纪录的33.955万人。 调查还显示，继前3年下降之后，今年外国学生的入学率首次增长4%。不过，就读这些学科的外国学生总数下降3%，为连续第二年下降。美国科学促进会(American Association for the Advancement of Science)研发预算及政策项目主管Kei Koizumi表示，此次调查的结果喜忧参半。多数决策者表示，好消息是，攻读科学与工程专业的美国人似乎越来越多，他表示。但外国学生数量下降，不管是因为实际存在或人们感觉中的签证问题，还是因为学生发现在其它国家读书更具吸引力，这都（令人沮丧）。9o11恐怖袭击后，美国国务院对外国学生实施限制，此后，来自国际学生的申请数量有所下降。软件公司甲骨文(Oracle)主管政府及公共事务的副总裁罗伯特o霍夫曼(Robert Hoffman)表示：（美国的）大学院校能否招到全世界顶尖的人才，唯一最大的挑战在于我们的移民体系。该体系对招生工作来说是个障碍。它所表达的意思是：你或许能在美国大学里获得一流教育，但你毕业后可能无法在美国公司里找到一份好工作。调查发现，工程专业的入读学生总数下降2.5%，在很大程度上是因为外国学生数量的减少，但入读数学和物理学专业的学生总数小幅上升。入读上述三门学科的美国公民人数有所上升，但每门学科的学生增幅不足1%。商业圆桌会议(Business Roundtable)的教育及就业政策主管苏珊o崔曼(Susan Traiman)表示，她感到担忧的是，随着英国和澳大利亚等其它国家纷纷提高自己在研究生教育方面的投资，并发起招募国内外优秀学生的攻势，美国研究生院正失去其在吸引外国最优秀人才方面的优势。她表示：这些数字似乎表明，目前顶尖人才有更多的选择。如果没有数量足够的美国学生进入这些领域，同时如果没有外国人才来填补这些空白，这将有损美国的创新能力-而这正是美国竞争力的根本所在。BEC考试阅读材料精选（四） You might think that if theres one thing an economist should be able to tell you how to do, its successfully list an item on the auction website eBay. Auction theorists are, after all, celebrated in the profession; one of them, Susan Athey, won the John Bates Clark medal in April. (Clark medallists, who include Paul Samuelson, Joseph Stiglitz and Steven Levitt, are scarcer than Nobel laureates.) Yet although the theory of auctions is well-developed, its predictions are sensitive to wrinkles in reality. For example, the standard economic assumption that people are rational is usually a good one: when the price of beer rises, most people drink less beer. But auctions require if he thinks that she thinks that I think that he thinks chains of reasoning that tend to have weak links. Those links can easily break if any bidder has any reason to suspect that any other bidder is irrational. Another theoretical conundrum is entry to the auction. Most auction theorists assume a fixed number of bidders, all poised and ready to bid. But while economists can assume bidders into existence, eBay sellers have to go out and hook them. This is no minor oversight of auction theory. Paul Klemperer, one of the economists behind the massive 3G auctions for mobile phone operators, has shown that trivial-seeming features of an auction can have big (and disastrous) effects by repelling bidders. For these reasons and others, wise auction theorists would avoid predicting how a specific auction design will work without knowing much more about the context.网上拍卖的经济学(上) 你也许会认为，如果说有一件事经济学家应该能告诉你如何去做，那就是在拍卖网站eBay上成功登记拍卖物品。毕竟，拍卖理论家在这行享有盛名；其中一位拍卖理论家苏珊o阿西(Susan Athey)在今年4月赢得了约翰o贝茨o克拉克(John Bates Clark)经济学奖章。（克拉克奖章获得者还有保罗o萨缪尔森(Paul Samuelson)、约瑟夫o斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)和史蒂文o莱维特(Steven Levitt)，比诺贝尔奖(Nobel)获奖者还要罕见。）然而，尽管拍卖理论已经很发达，但其预测容易受到现实中一些波澜的影响。比如说，标准经济学假设人是理性的，这种假设通常是对的：在啤酒价格上涨时，多数人都会少喝一些啤酒。不过，拍卖要求有如果他认为她认为我认为他那么认为的推理链条，而这种链条往往存在薄弱环节。如果任何出价方有任何理由怀疑其他出价方是不理性的，那么，这些环节就会轻易断裂。另一个理论难题是进入拍卖。多数拍卖理论家假定有固定人数的拍卖方存在，他们全都准备好了要出价。不过，虽然经济学家可以假设出价方存在，eBay的卖方却不得不去吸引这些人。这不是拍卖理论的一个微小疏忽。为移动电话运营商举行的大规模3G拍卖背后的经济学家-保罗o克伦佩雷尔(Paul Klemperer)已经表明，一场拍卖中看似微不足道的特点可能会让出价方却步，造成巨大（和灾难性的）影响。出于这些和其它原因，明智的拍卖理论家在没有充分了解整个背景的情况下，会避免预测某个具体的拍卖计划会有什么效果。BEC考试阅读材料精选（五） Fortunately for economists, eBay offers solutions as well as problems. With hundreds of thousands of auctions starting every day, the auction site provides masses of data. And if the publicly available data isnt enough, its also easy to conduct an experiment in the field, studying bidders in their natural habitat. David Reiley, an economist at the University of Arizona, has been studying online auctions since before eBay existed. In a recent paper with Rama Katkar, he investigated whether reserve prices in eBay auctions should be open or secret. Auction theory offers an argument that a secret reserve price is better. A secret reserve price allows bidders to see each others gradually ascending bids and thus draw confidence that they are not alone in prizing the item. Even though the bids are too low to beat the reserve, they serve an important purpose of reassuring bidders that others are also interested. An open reserve price on eBay makes that reassurance impossible; nobody can submit a bid below the open reserve, and lacking any signs of confidence from other bidders, there is a danger that nobody may submit a bid above it either. There are too many imponderables to tell whether this theoretical argument is what really counts in practice. So Katkar and Reiley put the theory to the test by simply selling 50 matched pairs of collectible cards, half with an open reserve price and half with a secret reserve price of the same level. Their conclusion, contrary to the theoretic argument, is that secret reserve prices are counterproductive. Far from stimulating interest they seem to put off bidders,who perhaps fear that a secret reserve is secret because it is far too high. Not wishing to waste their time, many of them just click back on their browsers and find somewhere else to bid. The conclusion may not shake the world but the method is important. David Reiley was one of the first economists to realise that the internet was generating vast amounts of researchable data. Now that data, from sites ranging from eBay and Amazon to M, is enriching the study of economics. It may enrich a few eBay sellers, too. Tim Harfords book The Undercover Economist (Little, Brown) is out now in paperback.。网上拍卖的经济学(下)对经济学家来说，幸运的是，eBay不仅提出了问题，也给出了解决办法。由于每天都有数不胜数的拍卖开拍，这个拍卖网站提供了大量数据。如果可以公开获得的数据不够用，还可以很容易地进行现场实验，在出价方的自然生活环境中研究他们。亚利桑那大学(University of Arizona)经济学家戴维o赖利(David Reiley)自eBay出现之前就一直在研究网上拍卖。在最近与拉玛o卡特卡尔(Rama Katkar)合著的一篇论文中，他对eBay拍卖中的保留价格应该公开还是保密的问题进行了研究。拍卖理论提出一种看法，认为保留价格保密更好。保留价格保密可以让出价方看到彼此逐渐攀升的出价，从而激起他们的信心，让他们相信自己不是唯一欣赏这件物品的人。即便出价太低、达不到保留价的水平，它们也能达到一个重要目的-安抚出价方，让他们知道其他人也感兴趣。在eBay上公开保留价格就不可能起到这种安抚作用了；任何人都不能提交低于公开保留价格的出价，而没有任何来自其他出价方的信心信号，就可能出现没有人出价高出保留价的危险。 要判断这种理论观点在实践中是否真的有价值，有太多不可精确估量的因素。因此，卡特卡尔和赖利通过拍卖50对匹配的收藏卡片对这个理论进行了检验。他们的方法是，在保留价相同的情况下，一半公开保留价，一半保密保留价。他们的结论与这种理论观点截然相反：保密的保留价达不到预期目的。它们不是激发出价方的兴趣，反而似乎是让他们退却，这也许是因为他们担心，保留价之所以保密，是因为它高得离谱。由于不想浪费自己的时间，许多出价方就会点击浏览器上的返回键，再找别的地方出价。这个结论也许不会撼动世界，但方法非常重要。戴维o赖利是最早发现互联网正在生成大量可研究数据的经济学家之一。如今，eBay、亚马逊(Amazon)到M等众多网站提供的这种数据，正在丰富经济学研究。它可能也会让少数eBay拍卖方富起来。蒂姆o哈福德的著作卧底经济学家(The Undercover Economist)（小布郎出版社(Little, Brown)）目前已经出版平装本。BEC考试阅读材料精选（六）Opec is to study further the effect of the falling US dollar on its economies following calls for it to price oil in currencies other than the greenback.The move, which emerged at the summit of cartel leaders in Riyadh, was an attempt to bridge the divide within the group over how to respond to the dollars decline. Iran and Venezuela had pushed for Opec to move away from the dollar in the face of strong opposition from the summits host, Saudi Arabia. Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, Irans president, said after the leaders meeting that the falling dollar meant oil producers were subsidising the US government and people. “They get our oil and give us a worthless piece of paper,” he said. “We all know that the US dollar has no economic value.” The dollar has dropped 16 per cent this year against a basket of major currencies, and 44 per cent against the euro since the last Opec summit in Caracas, Venezuela, in 2000. Iranian officials have said that the average price of a barrel of their oil so far this year is, at $63, only $2 higher than for the same period of 2006. Priced in euros, oil has been cheaper this year than last year. Finance and foreign ministers from Opec countries are to meet in Abu Dhabi in the next few weeks to discuss the effect of the dollar, a move hinted at in an oblique reference in the summits closing declaration. On Friday, Prince Saud Al-Faisal, Saudi Arabias foreign minister, warned that the dollar could “collapse” if the US currency was mentioned in the declaration. His remarks made in what was supposed to be a closed ministerial meeting were accidentally broadcast to reporters. After the summit, Prince Saud played down the significance of the ministers further examination of the dollar problem, saying it did not have any “hidden implications” and reflected Opec members duty ”to maximise the return from their resources”.欧佩克担忧美元贬值 石油输出国组织(OPEC，简称欧佩克)将进一步研究美元不断贬值对其经济体的影响。此前，有成员国呼吁欧佩克以美元以外的货币为石油定价。欧佩克担忧美元贬值。此举出现在欧佩克领导人在利雅得举行的峰会上，其目的是弥合该组织内部在如何应对美元贬值方面的分歧。此前，伊朗和委内瑞拉敦促欧佩克改变以美元为石油定价的做法，但遭到此次峰会主办国沙特阿拉伯的强烈反对。伊朗总统马哈茂德?艾哈迈迪-内贾德(Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad)在领导人峰会后表示，美元不断贬值意味着，石油生产国正在为美国政府及其人民提供补贴。“他们得到我们的石油，却给我们一张毫无价值的纸，”他表示。“我们都知道美元没有经济价值。”今年美元兑一篮子主要货币已下跌16%，并且自欧佩克于2000年在委内瑞拉的加拉加斯举行上一届峰会以来，美元兑欧元汇率已累计下跌44%。伊朗官员表示，今年迄今为止，他们每桶石油的平均价格是63美元，较2006年同期仅高出2美元。如果折算为欧元，今年的油价比去年更便宜。欧佩克成员国的财长和外长计划数周后在阿布扎比举行会议，讨论美元的影响。欧佩克在此次峰会的闭幕宣言中间接地暗示了这一点。沙特阿拉伯外交大臣沙特?费萨尔亲王(Prince Saud Al-Faisal)上周五警告称，如果在该宣言中提及美元，美元可能“崩盘”。他本该是在闭门的部长级会议上发表的这番言论，却不小心通过话筒被记者听到。在峰会之后，费萨尔亲王淡化了部长们进一步研究美元问题的重要性。他表示，此举不具有任何“隐藏含义”，只是反映出欧佩克成员国“实现其资源回报最大化”的责任。BEC考试阅读材料精选（七）Some while ago I read a newspaper story saying male cyclists who rode a lot risked impotence because of the damaging effect of the saddle on their reproductive organs. It quite made my day. In my opinion, anything that stops cyclists breeding is to be welcomed as an unmitigated good. I hate cyclists. At least, I hate the ones I see in London every day. Outwardly, they may appear to be nice, respectable, law-abiding, middle-class people, and perhaps they normally are. But the moment they straddle their bikes, something snaps. It is not just the self-righteousness that gets to them. It is a deep-seated sense of injustice. On the one hand, they feel smug and superior, yet on the other, they are constantly humiliated by the knowledge of their acute vulnerability. The unfairness of it all fills them with such outrage that they turn into complete nutters, gripped by a desire for vengeance on a world that has wronged them so cruelly. Their contempt for the law is breathtaking. They routinely ignore red traffic lights, menacing pedestrians crossing the road when it ought to be safe. They cycle the wrong way along one-way streets, notably outside our local primary school where they play dodge em with the parents and children every morning. They race over pedestrian crossings and along the pavements whenever it suits them, the more aggressive of them screaming abuse at anyone who gets in their way. Yet heaven help anyone