经济学与经济学人的挑战(1).ppt

經濟學與經濟學人的挑戰美國的貨幣改策為例ChallengetoEconomics/EconomistsThecaseofUSmonetarypolicy,國立臺灣大學經濟學系演講華而誠教授世新大學管理學院經濟系2005.10.20,Outline大綱,EconomicshasbecomethemostpopularmajorintheuniversitiesoftheUnitedStatesandwhy?Butthisdoesnotsayeconomicsisaneasyscience.Onthecontrary,economicshasnevermetgreaterchallengesasittriestoaddressanincreasingarrayofquestionspostedbyrapidtechnologicalprogressandtheintegrationofglobalmarkets(globalization).TheconductoftheUSmonetarypolicyisacaseinpoint.,I.FactsaboutpopularityofEconomics,U.S.collegesanduniversitiesawarded16,141degreestoeconomicsmajorsinthe2003-2004academicyear,upnearly40%fromfiveyearsearlier;EconomicsisthemostpopularmajoratHarvardUniversity,ColumbiaUniversity,UniversityofChicago,andotherwell-knownschools;and,Therisingpopularityoftheeconomicsmajorappearstobeaglobalphenomenon:theshareofdegreesineconomicsandbusinessawardedinPolandfrom1996to2002morethandoubled,to36%from16%;inRussia,thesharejumpedto31%from18%(McKinseyGlobalInstitute).,Why,thepopularity?,Wideapplicationofeconomicstoissuesofsocietalconcerns:inflation,economicgrowth,equity公平;sustainabledevelopment可持續發展;economicglobalization全球化,immigration;competitiveness競爭力;de-regulation(power,telecom,banking);AIDs,terrorism,corruption,sumowrestling,etc,(“Freakonomics,”StevenLevitt,UniversityofChicago);,Economicsmodeofreasoningcanhelptoanalyzeawiderangeofissues(HarvardUniversityPresident,Mr.Summers);Itistheworldwearecurrentlyoperatinginneedsthebasicframeworkofeconomics,eventhoughlearningitcanbeveryfrustrating;and,ofcourse,Goodpayaftergraduation;jobnotthreatenedbyChinaandIndia.,II.Challengetoeconomics,Economictheoryisbuiltuponthepast“regularity”asmuchasthelawsinnaturalsciences.However,economicsisanimperfectsciencesinceitsobjectofstudy-humaneconomicbehaviorevenpresumedtoberationale,whichhasbeenchallengedlately,cannotbemodeledandpredictedwithprecision.Rapidstructuralchangeandtechnologicalprogress,andtheintegrationofglobalmarketsrendereconomicbehaviorevenmoredifficulttopredict.Thelackofpredictivepowertiltseconomicstowardanart,awayfromscience.,Challengetoeconomistsisgreater,Ifeconomicshasitsshortcomings,itsapplicationbyeconomistsisevenmoretreacherous.“Economicprinciples”oftendoesnotdelvemuchintothe“politicaleconomy”orthe“nitty-gritty”detailsthatcannotbeavoidedatthestageofitsapplication.“Thedevilsareinthedetails”,ifnotalways.Goodargumentsdonotnecessarilymakegoodeconomicpolicies.Thisputseconomistsatrisk.Forinstance,privatization民營化(e.g.,第二次金融改革、BOT)hasanobleobjective,butitsimplementationisquiteanother:casesoffailureabound.Russiaistheworsecase.,Anexample:IsthepracticingoftheUSmonetarypolicyanart?,“Discretion”選擇winsoverthe“Rule”法則intheolddebate?Whatrules?(anythingbutconstant)Taylorsrule泰勒定律“naturalrate”ofunemployment自然失業率“neutralrate”ofinterest中性利率,HasGreenspanlostmonetarycontrol?FFRratehasbeenraisedsinceJune2004,Thelong-ratefellratherthanroseGreenspansconundrum,Aflattenedyieldcurve:absenceofriskpremium(abondbubble?),Ahousingboom(orbubble)?,Householdsextractedequityinthehundredsofbillions(whynot?),-tosupportconsumptionthatledtoaplunginginthesavingrate,Thegovernmentalsowentforaspendingsplurge,Shortageinsavingresultedinmacroeconomicimbalance,-andthedeclineinthedollar,CausesofGreenspansconundrum,BrettonWoodsII:foreignbuyingoftreasuries,centralbanksfromAsiainparticular,accountedfor0.5%to2.0%ofthedeclineintherateonthe10-yeartreasuries,todefusecurrencyappreciation.Aglobal“savingglut”weakinvestment-accountsfortheUScurrentaccountdeficit;theUSisnottoblame?Investorsandspeculatorshaveimprudentlyoptedforriskyassets(realestate,bond),duetothelowvolatilitiesinthefinancialmarket.,Taiwan:aGreenspanianconundrum?,Taiwan:enjoyedalargesavingsurplusbutnomoreasinvestmentrecovered,Implications?,TheUSeconomyisinanun-charteredterritory.Why?Itsdynamismrestsonconsumptiongrowththat,inturn,hingesonthewealtheffect財富效果,orrather,thebubble泡沬effect,withincomerelegatedtoaminusculerole.Sincethepriceofassetcannotincreaseforever,theUSeconomicimbalanceisnotsustainable可持續,unlessincomepicksup.,Unfortunately,wedonthaveaclearcluetotheimportantquestion:WilltherestorationoftheUSeconomicbalancetriggerarecessionoramuchmorepleasantsoft-landing軟著路?Preparefortherainydays:Thewealth-intoxicatedUSeconomy,thegloballocomotive,couldjeopardizethehealthoftheglobaleconomy.Taiwanneedstofurtherstrengthendomesticdemand,preferablyinvestment.,Implicationforeconomics:weneedtopaymoreattentiontothewealtheffectinexplainingsaving/consumptionbehaviorandperhapseveninvestmentbehaviorsincethewealtheffectisnotsoexceptionalafterall(seenext).Permanentincomeandlife-cyclehypothesesofsaving/consumptionarestillrelevantbutnotalways.,Isthewealtheffectsoexceptional?,Canacapitalistmarketeconomybeexemptedfromthebubbleattacks?Orisitdesirable?Probablyno,tobothquestions.Keynes:investmentisdrivenbyanimalspiritsSchumpeter:innovationthatdrivesacapitalisteconomyinvolvesaprocessofcreativeself-destructionExample:The2000-2003stockmarketbubblefollowedtheITrevolutioninthe1990s,Globalizationasawildcard,ThefactthattheUSeconomycanevensustainalongperiodofrisingcurrentaccountdeficitrestsonherabilitytoborrowfromtheinternationalfinancialmarkets,orthefreeflowofcapitalthathaskeptonexpanding.Nowonder,whenquestioned,Harvardpresident,Mr.SummersaysthatUSisoneofthetwocountriesthathavebenefitedthemostfromglobalization.Guesswhichcountryistheotherone?China!,ChallengefromChina(andIndia),HowtoanalyzeChinasimpactontheglobaleconomy?Chinawilllikelybethelargesteconomyintheworldinthiscentury.ThecentreoftheworldeconomywillshiftfromtheWesttotheEast.IstherisingofChinarepresentsapositivesupplyshock供給震盪totheglobaleconomy?Itlowersglobalpriceswhileexpandingglobaloutput.Chinasred-hotgrowthstimulatedglobalgrowthandfinancedUSco