经济部统计(1).ppt

RisingPhoenixAnEconomyinTransitionAgain,ChiSchivePresident,TaiwanAcademyofBankingandFinanceDecember17,2004,Contents,DomesticEconomicPerformanceCurrentEconomicIssuesWTOandCross-straitRelationAScenario,3,TaiwansCurrentEconomicPerformance,%,Source:.tw/,2004isthebestyearinlastfiveyears,4,DomesticEconomy,IndustrialProduction,Asignificantincreaseof11.5%betweenJanuaryandOctoberthisyearoverthepreviousyear.,資料來源：經濟部統計處新聞資料，工業生產變動概況，93年11月23日。,5,DomesticEconomy,Trade,ByOctoberthisyear,exportandimportgrewby17.5%and38.1%,respectively.,資料來源：財政部統計處新聞稿，海關進出口貿易概況暨補充說明，93年11月8日。,6,DomesticEconomy,TradeBalance,TradesurplusofthisyearbyAugustdecreasedby54.3%overthesameperiodlastyear.,資料來源：財政部統計處新聞稿，海關進出口貿易概況暨補充說明，93年11月8日。,6,7,CPIinAugustincreased2.36%overthelastyear,thecumulativefigurebyOctoberwas1.62%。However,thesamefiguresforWPIthisyearwere12.02and6.97%,respectively。,資料來源：行政院主計處編印，中華民國台灣地區物價統計月報及新聞稿，93年11月5日。,DomesticEconomy,Price,8,DomesticEconomy,MoneySupple,資料來源：中央銀行編印，中華民國台灣地區金融統計月報，各期。,2and1Bgrewby7.5and20.1,respectivelybyOctoberthisyear,whichwereadropof0.3and2.1percentageoverthepreviousmonth.,9,SourcesofGrowth,2000-2004,SourcesofGrowthUnit：%,ThesluggishTaiwaneconomybeforethisyearwaslargelyduetoweakdomesticdemandinconsumptionandinvestment.ExpandingnetexportcontributedsignificantlytoTaiwangrowthbetween2001and2003.Strongsurgeofprivateinvestmentandinventoryisthekeyforthegrowthofthisyear.,Source:DGBAS,CurrentEconomicIssues,11,ForcesShapingTaiwansEconomicFuture,Whichproblem,thecyclicalorstructuralone,Taiwanisfacing?WhatareTaiwansstructuralproblems?Thefinancialmarketisgettingimproved,yetwithunfinishedjobs.Theexpandingpublicdebtshouldbecontrolled.Thelabormarketneedsrevitalization.WTOImpactandCross-Straitrelations,12,%,CurrentFinancialProblem,Total,Domestic,Foreign,Thequalityoffinancialassetshasbeenimprovedsignificantlyinlasttwoyears,NonperformingLoanas%ofTotalUnit:%,13,CurrentFinancialProblem,UnhealthyFinancialSectorTaiwansoverallcompetitivenessrankedthe24thbyIMDs2002WorldCompetitivenessReportsover49countries.Yet,itsinside-tradingwasrankedthe31th.FinancialRegulationwasrankedthe37th.FinancialProductwasthe31th.,FinancialOrganizationRestructuringMuchNeededTherewereonlythreemergerssofar.Foreignbanksacquisitionsarestilltobeseen.,14,MajorFinancialReforms,ThoseAccomplished:TheFHClawwasavailable,encouragingcross-selling.TheFinancialCompanyMergerlawwaspromulgated.AMCsandRTCwereestablished.Full-disclosurewasemphasizedandinstitutionalized.AnOTCmarketforbroaderscopeofcompanieswasavailable.1/1000taxoncommercialbondtransactionwaived.TheunifiedfinancialsupervisionbodywasestablishedbyJuly2004.Financialandnon-financialassetssecuritizationlawswerepromulgated.,15,MajorFinancialReforms,Thosetobeaccomplished:AstiffregulationonbankscapitaladequacyratioofBISstandardbeinplace.RTCfundtoberaisedforhelpingsolvingthosedefactobankruptedfinancialinstitutes.AneffectivePCAregulationtobeinstalled.,16,FiscalReforms,Mountingnationaldebthastobeputonrein.Theextremelowtaxrevenuebyinternationalstandardcausesmuchconcern.,17,UnemploymentRatesinUS,JapanandTaiwan,1991-2003,US,Taiwan,Japan,%,Source:IMF,WorldEconomicOutlook,variousissues.,6.0,5.5,4.99,18,UnemploymentRatesinUK,IrelandandNetherlands,1991-2003,%,UK,Netherlands,Ireland,Source:1.IMF,WorldEconomicOutlook,variousissues.2.ILO,InternationalLaborStatistics,variousissues.,3.1,4.2,5.1,19,ForTaiwan:RecognitionofitseconomicstrengthBacktotheinternationalplatformForChina:BeginningofawholenewroundofreformsAfurtherintegrationintotheworldeconomy,ImpactfromtheWTOEntry,WTO,TAIWAN,CHINA,?,20,ImpactfromEnteringWTO,ThelongoverdueTaiwansentryintoWTObringslimiteddirectimpactupontheeconomybecauseofitsalreadyquiteopenedeconomy.Yet,theindirectinfluencefrommainlandChinasentrywillbeenormous.IfWTOmeansWatchingTaiwanOpen,itwillbemoresoformainlandChina.TaiwansagriculturalandfewindustrialsectorswillbeaffectedbysurgingimportsfromChina,however,theservicessectorwillgainfrommoreforeignparticipation.,21,WTO,ChinasChallenge,ChangeandChance,TheWTOentryformainlandChinameanscontinuedeconomicreforms,andamoreopenandinternationallycompatiblesystemtobuild.Chinaisagiantgoosewhichhasalreadytakenoff,andwereeagertojointheflockofneatlyflyingEastAsiangeese.Everyoneintheflockhastomakeroomforthenewcomers.Thesu