财务策划步骤和方法.ppt

1,FinancialPlanningandForecasting,2,FinancialPlans,Financialplansevaluatetheeconomicsbehindthestrategyandoperations.Theyconsistofsixsteps:Projectedfinancialstatements:toanalyzetheeffectsoftheoperatingplanonprojectedprofitsandfinancialratios.Determinethefundsneededtosupporttheplan.Forecastfundsavailability.Establishandmaintainasystemofcontrolstogoverntheallocationanduseoffundswithinthefirm.DevelopproceduresforadjustingthebasicplaniftheeconomicforecastsuponwhichtheplanwasbaseddonotmaterializeEstablishaperformance-basedmanagementcompensationsystem.,3,SalesForecast,Salesforecastsareusuallybasedontheanalysisofhistoricdata.Anaccuratesaleforecastiscriticaltothefirmsprofitability:,Under-optimistic,Toomuchinventoryand/orfixedassets,LowturnoverratioHighcostofdepreciationandstorageWrite-offsofobsoleteinventory,LowprofitLowrateofreturnonequityLowfreecashflowDepressedstockprice,Over-optimistic,CompanywillfailtomeetdemandMarketsharewillbelost,SalesForecast,4,ThePercentofSalesMethod,Thisisthemostcommonmethod,whichbeginswiththesalesforecastexpressedasanannualgrowthrateindollarsalerevenue.Manyitemsonthebalancesheetandincomestatementareassumedtochangeproportionallywithsales.,5,ThePercentofSalesMethod:AnExample,*Denotesspontaneous,whichmeansincreasespontaneouslywithsales.,Allassetsarespontaneous.Ontheliabilityandequityside,AccountsPayableandAccrualsaretheonlyspontaneousfunds.Duringthenextyear,salesincreaseby15%resultingina15%increaseinTotalAssets(4,374).Hence,theassetsideonnextyearsbalancesheetmustgoupby15%.Also,thespontaneousfundsontheliabilitysidemustalsoincreaseby15%.,6,Example(contd):,Thespontaneousitemsontheliabilitiessideoftheprojectedbalancesheetmustalsoincreaseby15%.,7,Example(contd):,8,Example(contd):,Retainedearningswillalsoincreasebutnotatthesamerateassales.The2002amountofREistheoldamountplustheadditiontoretainedearnings,whichwecalculatedintheprojectedincomestatement.SincetheTA=TLandtheTAhaveincreasedto33,534,whileTLhaveincreasedto31,406,thereareadditionalfundsneeded(AFN)of2,128ontheliabilitiesside.,9,Example(contd):,TherearetwocategoriesofsourcesfortheAFN:Issuanceofnewstocks(equity)UsesomecombinationofdebtInthisexample,thereareinternallygeneratedfundsfrom:RetainedEarningsAccountsPayableandAccruals,10,Example(contd):,11,FinancingFeedbacks,Ifthebusinessissuesnewdebtandcommonstock,thetotalamountofinterestanddividendspaidwillchange.Becauseinterestanddividendsmustbepaidwithcash,anyincreaseinthesecostswilldecreasethefundsthefirmhastoinvestthatis,theamountofincomeaddedtoretainedearningswillbelessthanoriginallyforecasted.Whenweconsidertheeffectsoftheincreasedinterestanddividendpayments,wefindthattheAFNisactuallygreaterthanoriginallyexpected.Financingfeedbacksthatis,theeffectsonthefinancialstatementsofactionstakentofinanceforecastedincreasesinassetsmustbeconsideredtodeterminetheexactamountofAFN.,12,Example(contd):,Borrowat10%(NotesPayable).Itmeansthatnextyeartheinterestwillbe560+(10%*2,128),Insteadofretaining1,166,thecompanyretains1,096becauseoftheinterest.Theendresultsisthatthecompanyhastoraise2,128+70=2198,13,TheAFNFormula,Intheformula,wecanuseeitheryear(2001or2002)numberstoarriveatthefinalresult.*AreferstotheTotalAssets.*Lreferstothesumofallspontaneousliabilities(AccountsPayableandAccruals).,14,StepsinFinancialForecasting,ForecastsalesProjecttheassetsneededtosupportsalesProjectinternallygeneratedfundsProjectoutsidefundsneededDecidehowtoraisefundsSeeeffectsofplanonratiosandstockprice,15,Forecastingsales,Reviewpastsales(fivetotenyears).Youcanuseaveragegrowthratebutitmaynotgiveyouacorrectestimate.Useregressionslopetocomputegrowthrate.Considerchangesineconomy,marketconditions,etc.Impropersalesforecastcanleadtoseriousfinancialplanningissues.,16,Aftersalesforecasting,whatisnext?,ForecasttheCOGS(acertain%ofsales).Inventorynumberswillchangewithsales.A/R(considercreditpolicychanges)willchangeandsowillA/R.Accordingly,cashandcashequivalentswillchange.,17,Salesforecastingandlongertermassetsandliabilities,Dotheyneedtobechangedaswellalongwithsales?Depends.Existingproductioncapacityrelativetothenewsalesprojections.,18,Readytopreparetheincomestatement,StartwithforecastedsalesProjecttheCOGSAssumingchangesinlongertermassetsandliabilities,forecastdepreciationandinterestexpenses(assumptionsrequiredforinterestrates/COC,etc.)ComputeEBIT.,19,ReadytopreparetheBalanceSheet,Determinethenewlevelofassets(bothshort-termandlongerterm).Separatethemasoperatingassetsandlongtermassets.Forecastliabilities(currentaswellaslongerterm).Isanycommonstockorpreferredstocktobeissued?Ifso,takeintoaccountthechangesinthesenumbers.,20,Additionalfundsneeded,Forecastedassetsandliabilitiesmaynotperfectlymatch.ThedifferenceisbecauseofAFNoradditionalfundsneeded.AFNistherequiredassetsminusthespecifiedsourcesoffinancing.,21,HowwouldincreasesintheseitemsaffecttheAFN?,Highersales:Increasesassetrequirements,increasesAFN.Higherdividendpayoutratio:Reducesfundsavailableinternally,increasesAFN.,(More),22,HowwouldincreasesintheseitemsaffecttheAFN?,Higherprofitmargin:Increasesfundsavailableinternally,decreasesAFN.Highercapitalintensityratio,A*/S0:Increasesassetrequirements,increasesAFN.Paysupplierssooner:Decreasesspontaneousliabilities,increasesAFN.,23,ProjectingProFormaStatementswiththePercentofSalesMethod,ProjectsalesbasedonforecastedgrowthrateinsalesForecastsomeitemsasapercentoftheforecastedsalesCostsCashAccountsreceivable,(More.),24,Itemsaspercentofsales(Continued.)InventoriesNetfixedassetsAccountspayableandaccrualsChooseotheritemsDebtDividendpolicy(whichdeterminesretainedearnings)Commonstock,25,SourcesofFinancingNeededtoSupportAssetRequirements,Giventhepreviousassumptionsandchoices,wecanestimate:RequiredassetstosupportsalesSpecifiedsourcesoffinancingAdditionalfundsneeded(AFN)is:Requiredassetsminusspecifiedsourcesoffinancing,26,ImplicationsofAFN,IfAFNispositive,thenyoumustsecureadditionalfinancing.IfAFNisnegative,thenyouhavemorefinancingthanisneeded.Payoffdebt.Buybackstock.Buyshort-terminvestments.,27,HowtoForecastInterestExpense,Interestexpenseisactuallybasedonthedailybalanceofdebtduringtheyear.Therearethreewaystoapproximateinterestexpense.Baseiton:DebtatendofyearDebtatbeginningofyearAverageofbeginningandendingdebt,More,28,BasingInterestExpenseonDebtatEndofYear,Willover-estimateinterestexpenseifdebtisaddedthroughouttheyearinsteadofallonJanuary1.Causescircularitycalledfinancialfeedback:moredebtcausesmoreinterest,whichreducesnetincome,whichreducesretainedearnings,whichcausesmoredebt,etc.,More,29,BasingInterestExpenseonDebtatBeginningofYear,Willunder-estimateinterestexpenseifdebtisaddedthroughouttheyearinsteadofallonDec