重庆农村土地交易所地票交易风险及防范研究.docx

摘要重庆足一个集大城市、大农村、大库区、大山区和民族地区r?一体的直辖市。自1997年直辖以来,重庆各项经济指标获得了巨大的提高,但重庆城乡二元结构矛盾仍然突出,城乡收入差距仍然较大,同时经济发展带来的城市空间的扩张,对地LX农村资源造成了巨大的压力。2007年经国家批准,重庆市正式成为国家统筹城乡综合配套改革试验区。统筹城乡综合配套改革内容之一就是建立统筹城乡的十.地利用制度。针对重庆城乡土地利用出现的问题,如何充分利用农村闲置的土地资源,成为改革的一个关注点。2008年国土资源部支持重庆探索集中使用土地整理专项资金,推动土地整理,试验城乡建设用地流转,建立城乡土地交易市场。同年重庆市农村土地交易所挂牌成立,标志着地票交易制度正式启动。作为土地管理制度方面的一个创新,地票交易制度创新了土地利用机制,开辟了以城带乡、以T促农的新途径,但同任何一项制度创新一样,在实践中也面临了一些问题和风险,这必将影响地票交易制度的正常运彳丁和发展。!卜:是笨于此,本论文丌展了对地票交易制度的风险及防范研究。西方发达国家在实现下业化、城市化过程中也血临着如何有效地保护耕地、公共空间、具有历史和义化价值的地区以及具有特别经济价值的自然景观等的问题。国外研究主要从土地展权角度来解决上述问题,研究的侧重点主要从土地发展权的理论意义、土地所有者权利、市场结构和运行的角度对土地发展权进行了研究。两方发达国家所广泛采用的土地发展权转移制度对地票交易制度的产生提供了一些借鉴,但两者也存在很大不同。国内对地票交易制度的研究研究主要从地票交易制度运行的风险、积极意义和闲境进行了分析。对地票交易制度本身的风险防范研究尚处于起步阶段。本论文以现行的地票交易制度风险为研究对象,釆用地票交易制度运行诊断至地票交易制度风险识别至地票交易制度风险评估至地票交易制度风险应对策略至地票交易制度风险防范体系构建的设计思路。对地票交易制度这个新生制度本身潜在的四南大学博士学位论文风险,而不是制度实际运行或操作中因受人们行为影响而导致的风险进行分析研究,揭示了风险来源和发生的机理、影响机制,评估了风险的大小及重要程度,探索了规避风险的路径和方法,设计了风险防范体系并提出了政策建议。论文的研究成果将为完善地票交易制度提供更为有利的决策依据,对重庆市及全国统筹城乡土地管理制度改革提供重要的理论和现实意义。1.评价了地票交易制度的总体运行成效及不足地票交易制度自运行以来,取得了明显的社会、经济、生态效益。一是创新了农村集体建设用地与城镇建设用地置换模式,建立城乡统一的土地要素市场;二是显化了农村土地价值,为农民增加了 148亿元的财产性收入,并优化了农村土地空间布局;二是以“先补后占”替代“先征后补”的建设占用耕地的占补平衡模式,补充耕地7.66万亩,冇利于重庆市坚守3256万亩的耕地保存量、实现耕地占补平衡。总体来说,该项制度的运行对重庆市统筹城乡发展起到了巨大的推动作用,做出了显著的贡献。尽管地票交易制度取得了一定的成效,但同任何项制度创新一样,在运行过程仍存在一定的不足,需要在改革实践中逐步完善。一是地票制度前期探索中缺乏一些上位法的依据;二是价格形成机制的理论依据有待探索;三是收益机制仍需进一步完善。地票交易制度运行中存在的不足暴露了地票交易制度仍存在一定的风险,一定程度上影响地票交易制度的正常运行和发展,应探清地票交易制度面临的风险,并建立地票交易制度风险防范控制体系。2.定性识别了地票交易制度风险从风险识别涵义、内容和原则出发,运用头脑风暴法、德尔菲法以及针对地票交易制度的特点提出的DSP制度风险研究技术体系,定性识别了地票交易制度的风险。三种方法对影响地票交易制度运行可能产生的风险问题是-?致的,即对耕地保护风险、对W家宏观调控的风险、对房地产市场的风险、对欠发达地区爪地保障的风险和对农民权益保护的风险。三种方法在深度和广度识别风险点上冇区别。头脑风暴法以专家对地票交易制度风险的主观分析为依据,进行预测和分析。+易将不容易觉察的风险源和风险事件识别出来。德尔菲法虽然能够识别出不易觉察的风险,但由于专家的时间紧张,存在风险点识别结果不太深入的现象。创新性地对DSP制度风险研究技术体系的应用可对制度风险进行了一个全方位、系统性的分析。对二种方法识别的风险点进行筛选之后得出16个风险点,包括对耕地占补平衡的影响、对耕地问题动态平衡的影响、对国家土地管理的影响、对II摘要国家新增建设用地量的影响、对城乡建设用地空间管制的影响、对城市土地供给的影响、可能出现房地产市场垄断行为、可能造成建设用地成本增加推高房价、可能造成房地产市场供应景增加从而影响市场、未充分考虑农村自身发展需求、对产生地自身发展造成消极影响、不利于小城镇用地保障、农民的复垦主体地位对待提升、农村宅基地社会保障功能需进一步考虑、地票落地冈农民权益未得到充分保障和地票落地K征地补偿的合理性值得斟酌。在定性识別地票交易制度风险结果的基础上,对各风险点进行一一分析研究。3.定量评估了地票父易制度风险采用层次分析法、模糊分析法、综合评价法等方法对地票制度风险进行定量评估。根据风险评估结果,地票交易制度系统综合风险值为0.38,与风险等级对照表相对照,风险影响程度较低,其风险尚处于可控状态。按照风险发生的可能性进行排序,5方面风险可依次排序为:对农民权益保护的风险、对耕地保护的风险、对国家宏观调控的风险、对房地产市场的风险、对欠发达地区用地保障的风&险,其风险值分别为0.171、0.0827、0.0633、0.036、0.0226。16个风险点中按严重稈度排名前5位的是:农村宅基地社会保障未充分考虑、农民复垦的主体地位有待提升、对耕地总量动态平衡的影响、地票落地区农民权益未得到充分保障和对M家新增建设用地量的影响。为进一步分析农民权益保护这一站大风险源的风险因了,以北碚为例构建OP模型进行实证分析。分析结果发现农村宅基地社会保.障对农民权益保护的风险负向影响最大,再一次印证了农村宅基地社会保障这-?风险点对地票交易制度风险的影响程度是最大的并提出了要尊重农民意愿,确立农民地票交易过程中的主体地位,建立科学合理的收益分配补偿机制和积极探索新型长效的社会保障制度的建议。4.提出了地票交易制度风险防范策略针对5大风险相对于地票交易制度风险的风险影响程度,提出风险防范策略。如“确立农民主体地位、“探索合理的收益分配补偿机制”、“完善地票价款使用监管机制”、“强化复垦设计与验收环节”、“出台耕地等级折算办法”、“合理控制年度地票交易规模”、“建立“地票+计划指标”相结合的土地供应调控体系”、“确定合理的地票“打包”方式”、“统筹配置各类建设用地指标”、“合理细分地票指标”、“增强农村持续发展能力”等等方I fli的具体风险响应策略来防范、控制。5.设计了地票交易制度风险防范体系III西南大学博士学位论文借鉴风险管理学以及系统工程学,为进一步防范地票交易制度运行中出现的新风险,完善地票交易制度,设计地票交易制度风险防范体系。地票交易制度风险防范体系是一个包括组织体系、监测体系和评估体系的循环体系。6.提出了保障地票交易制度风险防范体系有效运行的建议为保证地票交易制度风险防范体系有效运行,有针对性的提出“重视地票交易制度前期基础工作”、“完善地票交易管理机制”、“开展地票交易运行关键技术研究”、“加强地票交易制度与现行相关制度的衔接、“建立地票交易信息系统”等方面的建议。综上所述,本论文适应目前所需,撇幵从制度创新、法律性质、积极意义等角度分析地票交易制度,另辟蹊径,从制度层面出发,研究地票交易制度这个新生制度本身存在或潜在的风险,而不是制度实际运行或操作中因受人们行为的影响而导致的风险,这在地栗风险研究屮尚属tn欠,具有一定的创新价值。将地票交易制度风险的识别、评估以及防范等方面作为-?个整体来考虑,整个研究的结构性、系统性较强。定性分析、定量评估了重庆十地交易所地票交易的风险并构建了地票交易制度风险防范体系,对未来地票交易制度风险的防范起到一定程度作用。地票交易制度是一新生事物,制度的构建被实践检验是一个长期的过程。目前对出现的问题的防范,不代表能够防范新问题的出现。现在本论文己将模型建立起来了,不足的是里面的因子会发生变化,需要今后在此基础上进一步地进行完善和扩展。关键词:重庆;农村土地交易所;地票交易;风险;防范AbstractABSTRACTChongqing is the municipalities directly under the central government,which is a large city, big country, big area, mountain area and minority area .Since 1997 the each economic norms of Chongqing achieved great improvement,but the structure contradiction between urban and rural areas is so highlighted,the income gap between urban and rural areas is still large, and at the same timethe city space expansion which brought by the economic development on ruralresources has caused tremendous pressure. In 2007, Chongqing officially becamethe national coordinating urban and rural comprehensive reform pilot areaapproved by the state. The establishment of urban and rural land use system isthe one of contents in the urban and rural comprehensive reform. According tothe problems of the Chongqing urban and rural land use, how to make full useidle rural land has become a very important reform question. In 2008, theMinistry of land and resources supported Chongqing to explore some questions,、such as how to use the funds of land consolidation, how to promote landconsolidation development how to transfer the constructive land between urbanand rural, how to establish the market of urban and rural land transaction. In thesame year Chongqing rural land exchange was established, marked the beginningof the land ticket transaction system. As a system innovation in land management,the land ticket transaction system was not only an innovation system in land use,but also a way of city to a rural zone in order to promote agro. No single systemcould solve every problem and risk, so many problems and risks in the land tickettransaction system must be revealed. Based on this, this thesis researched howto prevent the problem and risk in the land ticket transaction system. In theperiod of industrialization and urbanism in western developed country, someproblems were revealed, such as how to protect farmland effectively, publicspace, with historical and cultural value and economic value of the areas whichhad special natural landscape and other problems. How to solve the aboveproblems mainly from the land development rights abroad, the emphasis of thestudy mainly from land development right theory, land ownership rights, marketstructure and operational. The system of risk prevention research is still in itsinitial stage, and the research on the risks and prevention in the land tickettransaction system is nearly blank strip. So this thesis researched the risks in thev西南大学博士学位论文land ticket transaction system, the thinking of research is that diagnosed risks inthe land ticket transaction system firstly, identified the risks in the land tickettransaction system secondly, assessed the risks in the land ticket transactionsystem thirdly, rendered advice according to the risk analysis in the land tickettransaction fourthly, built up the risk prevention system of the land tickettransaction system finally. And the thesis researched the system risks in the landticket transaction system itself, rather than the risks that influenced by thepractical operation or people behavior, revealed the risk sources and operationmechanism, assessed the risk value and importance of the risk, explored the pathsand methods to prevent the risk, designed the risk prevention system and puttedforward policy suggestions. The research results will perfect the tickettransaction system and provide the important theory and the practicalsignificance.1. To evaluate the land ticket transaction system running efficiency anddeficiencyThe land ticket transaction system had achieved obvious social, economic,ecological benefit. One is the innovation of land replacement model betweenrural collective construction land and urban construction land, and set up aunified urban and rural land market. Two is to manifest the value of rural land, toincrease income and property for farmers and to optimize the rural land spacelayout; Three is that land reclamation first and then expropriation of the land toreplace firstly expropriating the land and then land reclamation, not only helpedto supply farmland 76600 mus, but also to maintain 32560000 acres of farmlandquantity in Chongqing. Generally, the operating of the land ticket transactionsystem has played a tremendous role in promoting, made a significantcontribution. Although the ticket system has obtained certain result, but with anyinstitutional innovation, there are still some deficiencies in the practice, needed togradually improve. A preliminary exploration of the land ticket system is lack ofsome of the upper law basis; two is that the price formation mechanism theoriesneed to be explored; three is that the accrual mechanism still needs furtherimprovement. In the land ticket transaction system some deficiencies wereexposed, which inlluenced the land ticket transaction systems normal operationand development on certain level. So we should research these risks, andVIAbstractestablish the risk prevention control system in the land ticket transaction system.2.To qualitatively identify the land ticket transaction system riskFrom risk identification meaning, content and principle, using thebrainstorming, Delphi method and the DSP system risk technology system, wequalitatively identify the land ticket transaction system risk. The points of viewwere just that the problems affected on land ticket transaction system wereconsistent in the three methods. There are five risk factors for land tickets system:farmland protection risks, the risk of national macro-control, the impact of thereal estate market risk, the risk of coordinating urban and rural areas and the riskof protecting the interests of fanners. Three methods in breadth and depth aredifferent. Brainstormings predict and analyze the land ticket transaction systemrisk by subjective analysis. It cant analyze some risks that not easy to bedetected. Delphi method can identify the risks that not easy to be detected, butbecause the experts time is so limited, the detected risks are not comprehensive.DSP system risk of technology system was applied on the system risk, whichcould analyze the system risks comprehensively and systematically. There were16 risk points, the balance of cultivated land effect, arable land dynamic balanceeffect, national land management influence, the influence of amount of newlyincreased construction land, the urban and rural construction land use spatialregulation, the city land supply, real estate market monopoly, increased costspush construction land high prices, the real estate market supply increases, themarket does not fully consider the rural development needs, to produce their owndevelopment caused negative effects, is not conducive to the protection offarmers land use of small towns, the reclamation of subject status, to promoterural land social security function need further considered, farmer rights andinterests are not guaranteed in the land tickets landing area and fall incompensation for land expropriation and requisition rationality is worthconsidering. The results that qualitatively identified by risk identificationmethods can supply the study of the risk points.3.To quantitatively identify the land ticket transaction system riskUsing analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy analysis method and comprehensiveevaluation method, the thesis quantitatively assess the risks in the land ticketVII西南大学博士学位论文transaction system. According to the results of the risk assessment, the land tickettransaction system integrated risk value was 0.38, and contrasted with the riskgrade table, the risk to a lesser extent, the risk is still in a controllable state. Inaccordance with the possibility of risk ranking, 5 risks can be ranked as: the riskof protecting the interests of farmers, farmland protection risks, the risk ofnational macro-control, the impact of the real estate market risk, the risk ofcoordinating urban and rural areas, the risk values were 0.171,0.0827, 0.0633,0.036 and 0.0226. According to the risk value, the following five risks are greater:the risk that does not take full account of the rural homestead security in theindex layer, the risk that does not fully reflect the dominant position ofreclamation of farmers, the risk of dynamic balance of total arable land, the riskthat does not fully guarantee farmersrights and interests in land tickets tolanding areas, and the impact risk of national planning indicators. For furtheranalysis the risk that does not take full account of the rural homestead security inthe index layer,the thesis take Beibei as an example . The results showed that therisk that does not take full account of the rural homestead security in the indexlayer is the biggest negative impact on the risk of protecting the interests offarmers .And the thesis put forward to the point of view that its very necessaryto respect the wishes of farmers and establish a scientific and reasonable incomedistribution mechanism and to actively explore new effective social securitysystem.4.To put forward to ticket trading system risk prevention strategyAccording to the 5 major risks degree of influence, the thesis put forwardthe risk prevention strategy. Such as “ establish the main body position of thepeasants ”,” explore reasonable income distribution mechanism of compensation,” perfect the land ticket price supervision mechanism n, n strengthenreclamation design and acceptance link ”,M develop Farmland Grade conversionapproach, reasonable control of annual ticket transaction scale ”,” build ticket+ plan index n reasonable package ”,” overall allocation of construction landindex ” reasonable subdivision to ticket index ”, strengthen rural sustainabledevelopment ability5.To design the risk prevention system on the land ticket transaction systemVIllAbstractFrom risk management and systems engineering, in order to further preventthe risks on the land ticket transaction system, improve the land ticket transactionsystem; design the risk prevention system on the land ticket transaction system.The land ticket transaction system of risk prevention system mainly includesorganization system, a monitoring system and an assessment system.6. To put forward some suggestions that can ensure the land tickettransaction system against system risksIn order to ensure the land ticket transaction risk prevention system runeffectively, put forward some suggestions such as attention to the base worksof the land ticket transaction system “ perfect the land ticket transactionmanagement mechanism ”,“ carry out the operation of key technology research,strengthen land ticket transaction system and current related systemconvergence “ building the land ticket transaction transaction informationsystemGiven all that, this thesis meet the required, brush aside system innovation,legal nature, significance analysis of the land ticket transaction system, set outfrom system level, research the potential or itself risk in the land tickettransaction system, rather than the risks that the system practical operation oroperation effected by people behavior effect lead to the risk. It is the first timethis kind of the land ticket transaction system risk research has been studied. Sothe research has creative value. The risk appraisal, risk identification and riskprevention as a whole, the study is very systematic and structural. Qualitativeanalysis, quantitative evaluation of Chongqing land exchange in the land tickettransaction risk and constructing the risk prevention system of the land tickettransaction system, which is benefit for the land ticket transaction system. Theland ticket transaction system is a new thing; system construction is a longprocess in practice. At present, the risk prevention doesnt prevent the emergenceof new problems. Now this thesis has established the model, but the factors in theland ticket transaction system will change. So we need further on this foundationto improve and expand.Key words: Chongqing; Rural land exchange; the land ticket transaction; risk;precautionIX第1章文献综述第1章文献综述1.1统筹城乡土地利用土地利用即是决定土地的某种具体功能,土地资源功能的确定既要充分发挥上地自身的特性,也要满足社会经济发展对土地的需求。土地作为城乡存在的载体,又是推动城乡发展的动力与源泉。因此,土地利用在统筹城乡发展的过程中所扮演的角色越来越重要,关注于研究城乡土地利用研究的学者也越来越多。1.1.1国外研究状况(1)城乡土地利用变化角度Bell and rwin(2002)将微观经济模型用于研究空间数据管理的优劣上,并以美国城乡土地利用变化为实例加以分析2】。Currit and Easterling(2009)通过对墨西哥奇瓦瓦市1970?2000年近30年的人口和收入情况的分析,得出城乡土地利用变化全球化这一特征,并着重分析了人口驱动这一重要影响因素l3l。Huang等(2009)将地理信息系统(GIS)与Logistic回归模型相结合并运用指数滤波技术对美国特拉华州新赛市的土地利用吋空变化进行了分析,得出影响城乡土地利用变化的四大主要驱动因素为人口密度、道路接近度、坡度和周围的土地利用类型(2)城乡土地资源优化配置角度Fleischer and Tsur(2009)以以色列为例,从农业景观中生产活动的适宜性角度分析了人口、收入等因素对土地优化配置的影响5。(3)城乡土地利用政策研究角度Kelly(1998)以菲律宾马尼拉为例,分析了当地的土地政策对城乡关系的影响情况6。Long等(2008)以中国重庆市为例,着重分析了土地政策在城乡关系和土地利用变化中的作用71。1.1.2国内研究状况(丨)城乡土地利用变化角度陈玉福、王业侨、姚德明(2007)针对海南城乡土地利用率不高的现象,从城乡土地利用变化的角度出发,-?方面对海南的土地利用效率进行了评价并对海南区域差异进行了分析;另一方面在分析问题的基础上提出了相应的解决办法:一是积极探索统筹城乡发展的新型土地管理模式;二是进一步完善土地市场的配置机制;三是进一步加大农村土地的整理力度8。刘彦随和卢艳霞(2007)首先对我国沿海城乡土地的利用特点进行了分析,其次对沿海地区2010年、2020年建设用地的需求情况分别从基准增长和高增长进行预测,最后针对预测的结果提出土地利I西南大学博士学位论文用优化措施杨山、陈升(2009)通过收集江苏省无锡市30年的遥感影像数据,构建擅变模型,着重对城乡过渡地域用地的演变特征及影响因素进行了分析张衍毓、刘彦随(2010)着重对大城市边缘区城乡土地利用情况进行研究。选取天津市东丽区为研究区域,分析了在城市化和工业化的进程中大城市边缘区土地利