巨无霸指数.doc

简单了解巨无霸指数各国的汉堡包价格与美国汉堡包价格之比即为此国货币与美元的巨无霸指数例如：当前中国的汉堡包（巨无霸）的价格是￥9.50，而美国的是$2.90。于是人民币对美元的当前巨无霸指数就是2.909.503.28这个数值大大低于当前人民币与美元的汇率8.28，据此理论，我们就认为人民币被低估了这个指数是由经济学人Economist制定的。主要理论依据是购买力平价理论。关于这个指数最详细的介绍，莫过于Economist自己的一篇文章，现在与大家分享这篇妙文。Food for thoughtMay 27th 2004 From The Economist print editionThe world economy looks very different once countries output is adjusted for differences in prices用不同的标准衡量国家产出，就会看到不同的世界经济 HOW fast is the world economy growing? How important is China as an engine of growth? How much richer is the average person in America than in China? The answers to these huge questions depend crucially on how you convert the value of output in different countries into a common currency. Converting national GDPs into dollars at market exchange rates is misleading. Prices tend to be lower in poor economies, so a dollar of spending in China, say, is worth a lot more than a dollar in America. A better method is to use purchasing-power parities (PPP), which take account of price differences. 世界经济增长的有多快？作为一个增长引擎，中国在世界经济中有多重要？美国人均比中国富多少？如何把不同国家的产出价值换算成相同的货币决定了这些问题的答案。把一个国家的GDP以市场兑换率转换成美元，这样会引入误区。贫穷经济地区的物价比较低，所以在中国花一美元比在美国价值高。一种更好的方法是以购买力平价(PPP)计算，它考虑到了价格差异。The theory of purchasing-power parity says that in the long run exchange rates should move towards rates that would equalise the prices of an identical basket of goods and services in any two countries. This is the thinking behind The Economists Big Mac index. Invented in 1986 as a light-hearted guide to whether currencies are at their “correct” level, our “basket” is a McDonalds Big Mac, which is produced locally in almost 120 countries. 根据购买力平价理论，任何两个国家间相同的一篮子商品和服务的价格应该可以通过汇率调整成相等的价格。购买力平价理论是经济学人巨无霸指数的理论基础。在1986年发明的作为轻松指导货币是否在“正确”水平上的指数，我们的“篮子”就是在120多个国家生产的麦当劳汉堡包。The Big Mac PPP is the exchange rate that would leave a burger in any country costing the same as in America. The first column of our table converts the local price of a Big Mac into dollars at current exchange rates. The average price of a Big Mac in four American cities is $2.90 (including tax). The cheapest shown in the table is in the Philippines ($1.23), the most expensive in Switzerland ($4.90). In other words, the Philippine peso is the worlds most undervalued currency, the Swiss franc its most overvalued. 巨无霸指数是让任何国家一个巨无霸的成本都与美国的相同的汇率。我们根据对多个地方的汉堡包调查制作了一个表格，表格中的第一列以当前的汇率把当地汉堡包的价钱换成美元。美国四个城市汉堡包的平均价格为2.90美元。表格显示菲律宾的汉堡最便宜（1.23美元一个），瑞典的最贵（4.90美元）。换句话说，菲律宾比索是世界上最被低估的货币，瑞士法郎是最被高估的。The second column calculates Big Mac PPPs by dividing the local currency price by the American price. For instance, in Japan a Big Mac costs 262. Dividing this by the American price of $2.90 produces a dollar PPP against the yen of 90, compared with its current rate of 113, suggesting that the yen is 20% undervalued. In contrast, the euro (based on a weighted average of Big Mac prices in the euro area) is 13% overvalued. But perhaps the most interesting finding is that all emerging-market currencies are undervalued against the dollar. The Chinese yuan, on which much ink has been spilled in recent months, looks 57% too cheap. 第二列汉堡包平价是用美国汉堡包价格除以当地汉堡包的价格来计算的。例如：在日本汉堡包262日元一个，用美国价格2.90美元除以262日元，平价值为90日元，同当前日元汇率113相比，表明日元被低估了20%。与之相反的是，欧元被高估了13%。但是也许最有趣的发现是所有新兴市场的货币兑美元都被低估了，中国的人民币看起来便宜57%。The Big Mac index was never intended as a precise forecasting tool. Burgers are not traded across borders as the PPP theory demands; prices are distorted by differences in the cost of non-tradable goods and services, such as rents. 巨无霸指数从来都没想成为一个精确的预测工具。汉堡不会因为购买力平价理论的需求而跨国交易；非贸易商品以及服务成本的不同造成了价格差异，比如租金。Yet these very failings make the Big Mac index useful, since looked at another way it can help to measure countries differing costs of living. That a Big Mac is cheap in China does not in fact prove that the yuan is being held massively below its fair value, as many American politicians claim. It is quite natural for average prices to be lower in poorer countries and therefore for their currencies to appear cheap. The prices of traded goods will tend to be similar to those in developed economies. But the prices of non-tradable products, such as housing and labour-intensive services, are generally much lower. A hair-cut is, for instance, much cheaper in Beijing than in New York.但是，这些缺点让巨无霸指数指数变得很有用，因为换个角度看，巨无霸指数可以帮助衡量不同国家的生活成本。中国的汉堡包便宜，事实上不能证明象许多美国政客宣称的那样人民币大大低于它的公平价值。在比较贫穷的国家，平均物价自然较低，因此它们的货币看起来也便宜。发展中国家贸易产品的价格同发达国家趋于相似。但是非贸易产品的价格，象住房和劳动力密集的服务，一般来说就会低一些。在北京理发就比纽约便宜。One big implication of lower prices is that converting a poor countrys GDP into dollars at market exchange rates will significantly understate the true size of its economy and its living standards. If Chinas GDP is converted into dollars using the Big Mac PPP, it is almost two-and-a-half-times bigger than if converted at the market exchange rate. 较低价格的一个重要含义是：以市场汇率把贫穷国家的GDP转换成美元会低估其真正的经济规模和生活标准。用汉堡包平价换算中国的GDP是用市场汇率换算值的2.5倍。The global economic picture thus looks hugely different when examined through a PPP lens. Take the pace of global growth. Anyone wanting to calculate this needs to bundle together countries growth rates, with each one weighted according to its share of world GDP. Using weights based on market exchange rates, the world has grown by an annual average of only 1.9% over the past three years. Using PPP, as the IMF does, global growth jumps to a far more robust 3.1% a year. 因此，全球的经济图案站在购买力平价理论的视角看来会有很大不同。正像美联储所用的方法，用购买力平价理论衡量的话，在过去三年里，世界经济的平均增长速度是每年3.1%而不是1.9%。The main reason for this difference is that using PPP conversion factors almost doubles the weight of the emerging economies, which have been growing much faster. Measured at market exchange rates, emerging economies account for less than a quarter of global output. But measured using PPP they account for almost half. 最主要的原因是因为使用购买力平价理论来分析就会使得新兴经济体的数值翻番，因为新兴经济体发展得更为迅速。用市场汇率计算，新兴经济体只占世界总产出的四分之一，但是如果使用购买力平价理论，就会占到一半。Small wonder, then, that global economic rankings are dramatically transformed when they are done on a PPP basis rather than market exchange rates. America remains number one, but China leaps from seventh place to second, accounting for 13% of world output. India jumps into fourth place ahead of Germany, and both Brazil and Russia are bigger than Canada. Similarly, market exchange rates also exaggerate inequality. Using market rates, the average American is 33 times richer than the average Chinese; on a PPP basis, he is “only” seven times richer. 用购买力平价理论来衡量世界经济与用市场汇率来衡量相比，世界经济排名不会有很大的变化。美国仍然是第一，但中国会从第七升至第二，占据了世界总产出的13%。印度升至第四位，取代了德国，巴西和俄罗斯也排在加拿大的前面。同样，市场汇率也夸大了不同经济区域的差异。基于市场汇率，美国人均财富是中国的33倍；基于购买力平价理论，他们只比中国人富7倍。The way in which economies are measured also has a huge impact on which country has contributed most to global growth in recent years. Using GDP converted at market rates China has accounted for only 7% of the total increase in the dollar value of global GDP over the past three years, compared with Americas 25%. But on PPP figures, China has accounted for almost one-third of global real GDP growth and America only 13%. 衡量世界经济的方法同样也影响各国对世界经济增长速度的贡献。使用市场汇率计算，中国在最近三年为世界贡献了7%的增长速度，相比而言美国是25%。但是如果使用购买力平价模型，中国为世界经济增长贡献了三分之一而美国只占13%。This helps to explain why commodity prices in general and oil prices in particular have been surging, even though growth has been relatively subdued in the rich world since 2000. Emerging economies are not only growing much faster than rich economies and are more intensive in their use of raw materials and energy, but they also account for a bigger chunk of global output if measured correctly. As Charles Dumas, an economist at Lombard Street Research, neatly puts it, even if a Chinese loaf is a quarter of the cost of a loaf in America, it uses the same amount of flour. 这有助于解释一般日用品价格特别是油价增长的原因，即使是从2000年起在发达国家这种增长相对减慢。新兴经济体不单比发达国家增长得快，而且在原材料与能源使用上更多。使用正确的计量方法的话，新兴经济体在世界经济中也占据了很大的比重。经济学家查尔斯研究证明，即使中国与美国的工厂使用相同的面粉，中国的面包成本仍然是美国的四分之一。All measures of PPP are admittedly imperfect. But most economists agree that they give a more accurate measure of the relative size of economies than market exc