并购中基于收益法的企业价值评估研究.docx

一、我国并购市场发展情况及并购概述（一）我国并购市场发展情况改革开放以来，中国经济取得了举世瞩目的成就。但发展到今天，中国经济也面临着能源消耗过大，产业结构不合理，环境污染严重等一系列问题。放缓经济增速，提高经济质量是当今中国经济发展的总基调。在这样的经济背景下，向产业高端升级和新兴产业转型是中国企业必须面对的考验，而技术改革、渠道拓展、树立品牌和管理的国际化战略又将是中国企业必须抓注的战略机遇。基于这样的发展压力，中国企业的并购活动也日趋活跃，并购市场规模显著增长。据报道，2014年中国并购市场共发生交易3546宗，与2013年相比增长44.28%；交易金额达到9874亿元人民币，与2013年相比增长48.44%。1总体来看，中国并购市场呈现健康发展态势；北上广和江浙等经济发达地区在并购规模上占有强势地位；与国民经济中的产业结构相似，并购市场以制造业并购为重；信息产业，能源及矿业，房地产等在并购市场上也占有主要地位；民营企业并购数量赶超国有企业；海外并购维持在相对稳定的水平。据预测，2015年科技（特别是互联网）、金融服务、零售、消费相关以及房地产行业将是并购热点；医疗健康行业也是重点行业，但并购交易活动较今年将有所减缓；总体上中国并购市场将在2015年继续健康发展。2（二）我国并购市场中存在的问题企业并购是指企业的兼并和收购，国际上简称为M&A。并购活动的实质是一家企业通过获取另一企业的部分或全部产权从而取得对该企业控制权的一种投资行为。并购会导致产权变动。在各相关因素和市场的综合作用下，不同企业结合自身的发展需求和发展状况，发生并购行为有多种不同的原因。企业发生并购的根本原因是为了提高公司价值，实现企业战略目标。然而，在实际并购活动中，存在着大量并购失败的案例。数据显示，近几年来的并购有40%被证明远没有达到预期。主要失败原因可以从并购目的、并购企业的并购能力、对目标企业的价值评估和并购整合四个方面来探讨：首先，并购失败的企业的并购动机往往是非理性的，从代理理论出发，管理者为了讨好投资方或者处于自身业绩的考虑，盲目开展并购活动，而不考虑是否对企业有效；第二，要想达到理想的并购效果，并购方应该具备实施并购的能力，并购作为一项复杂的投资活动，要求并购方不仅要拥有雄厚的财务基础，更应该拥有良好的管理能力，将目标企业的资源有效地整合到并购后的企业中，实现预期的协调效果；基于不同的并购战略和目的，不同的并购方对相同的目标企业可能有不同的估值。因此，在实施并购行为时，并购方要对目标企业有完整和细致的价值评估，充分了解目标企业的优劣势，考虑双方的资源互补性，对并购后企业运行作出预测计划等；最后，并购整合的效果直接影响到并购成功与否，而并购整合的效果取决于双方的文化融合和管理的有效性。特别是要增强双方企业员工对并购的认同感，对组织的承诺。企业自上而下地配合并购整合，以实现协同效应。企业并购的失败原因也正是并购成功的关键要素。由此并购成功的必要条件就是对目标企业的价值进行客观的评估，可见企业价值评估在并购中起着不可忽视的作用。二、并购活动与企业价值评估（一）并购中的企业价值评估的重要性并购作为一项产权交易活动，交易能否实现的核心问题就是对目标企业的定价。然而由于并购双方存在信息不对称等局限，很难形成对企业价值的一致认识，这就需要具有专业能力的评估师对企业价值进行客观公正的评估，双方在评估价值的基础上议价博弈，最终达成协议。由此可见，企业价值评估在并购过程中承担着媒介的角色，沟通了并购双方的意见，提高了并购效率。再者，企业价值评估也是保证并购双方利益的主要手段。并购方借此充分了解目标企业未来发展潜力，并根据自身情况制定并购方案和整合计划，管理并购风险，实现预期并购目标；而目标企业从第三方角度上客观了解自身企业价值，确定可接受的价格底线，有利于保护所有者的利益。特别是在国有企业并购中，价值评估就更为重要，根据国有资产评估管理办法规定，对占有国有资产的单位发生资产转让、企业并购、企业出售、企业联营等经济行为时必须进行评估。国有资产的评估重在防止资产流失，保护国有资产安全。以上从并购过程，并购各方利益的角度出发，进一步说明了企业价值评估在并购中的关键作用。（二）并购中的企业价值评估的特点资产评估准则中对于企业价值评估的定义，是指注册资产评估师依据相关法律、法规和资产评估准则，对评估基准日特定目的下企业整体价值、股东全部权益价值或者股东部分权益价值等进行分析、估算并发表专业意见的行为和过程。针对并购活动中的企业价值评估，需要明确以下主要内容：第一，根据西方效用价值理论的观点，企业价值来源于企业为评估委托方带来的效用。效用越高，企业价值越高。所谓效用，从企业并购的主要目的来说，可以用未来盈利能力表示。由此看来，企业价值评估的核心即量度企业未来盈利能力。第二，企业价值有不同的类型，它根据企业所处的生命周期阶段和盈利水平的改变而改变。在创业期和成长期的前期，企业处于亏损或微利状态，生产经营勉强维持，此时的企业价值体现在有形资产重置成本价值；在成长期的后期和成熟期，企业获得丰厚的利润，企业价值体现在无形资产、有形资产以及两者互相作用的价值；在衰退期，企业濒临破产，不能补偿消耗的资产价值，此时企业价值体现在破产清算价值上。因此，明确企业价值类型是了解企业价值的必要路径。 第三，不同的信息使用者，基于不同的角度，企业价值评估的结果也会不同。对于目标企业，需要考虑的是继续“独立”经营下去的企业价值；对于并购方来说，有各自不同的并购目的，如有的是为了扩大生产规模，有的是为了多样化经营降低风险等，不同的管理整合能力，多种因素导致最终目标企业的评估价值不同。因此，在进行企业价值评估的过程中还要明确信息使用者的情况和评估目的。另外，在执行企业价值评估业务时，应确定以下基本事项：评估报告使用者；评估对象和评估范围；评估基准日；评估假设等。总的来说，并购活动中的企业价值评估是在特点的评估基准日，基于不同的信息使用者的要求和不同的评估目的对企业未来盈利能力的一种预期。三、并购中企业价值评估的方法选择国际评估准则在谈到资产评估基本方法时指出：成本法，市场法和收益法是资产评估中最常用的的三种方法。进行并购中企业价值评估时，应该考虑到并购活动的特点进行选用。并购作为一项投资活动，本质上是在购买目标企业的未来，更强调企业未来发展情况。而成本法是基于历史成本，调整企业资产账面价值得到评估值；市场法是基于市场价值，比较当前市场上类似企业或者类似并购案例，确定目标企业的价值；而收益法是考虑资产时间价值和风险因素，对预期收益资本化或者折现进行企业价值评估，从价值类型上来看，收益法更符合并购活动的特点。另外，成本法评估的企业价值是分散的资产的加和，忽略了资源间相互作用的价值增值，而不是将企业作为一个整体，考虑其盈利能力；市场法依赖于成熟和有效的资本市场，但当前我国证券市场不成熟，市场机制不完善，数据公允性低，这为市场法的广泛使用造成了障碍。企业发生并购的主要目的是创造企业价值和实现企业价值最大化。而收益法正是立足于企业未来盈利能力，突出了企业在未来利用各种内外部资源，实现企业整体价值最大化的过程。综上，收益法更契合并购中企业价值评估的特点，本文主要围绕收益法展开阐述。（一）收益法概述收益法是立足于企业未来获利能力，以合理的货币预测企业未来的收益和风险，以其现值之和作为企业当前时点价值。收益法包含三个要素：收益，折现率和收益年限。利用收益法评估企业价值，要满足一定的前提条件：首先，以持续经营为假设，着眼于未来。该条件限制了目标企业的状态和并购企业的目的，目标企业在可预见的未来不会出现现金流量持续为负数或者破产的状况；并购企业的并购目的是为了获得长期收益，而不是为了获得短期投资收益。再者，收益，风险的可预测性。这要求在可预见的持续经营的未来，经济环境不会有大的不可预料的变革，企业可以在一定的风险水平下实现原有的战略计划和目标；再者，目标企业当前应该有真实完整的历史资料和会计信息以支撑预测内容的可靠性和合理性。收益法的使用依赖于对三个要素的预测，这三个要素的确定直接影响着对企业价值的评估质量。另外，收益法一般适用于实物资产较少，专利技术等无形资产所占比重较大，成长性高和发展潜力好的新兴企业或是高新技术企业。这种情况，一般不适于使用成本法，账面价值与内在价值有较大的差距，会造成评估极大的误差。另外，在市场上缺少可比企业或案例，同类企业评估价值不稳定时，我们也常选用收益法。收益法常用的具体方法包括股利折现法，企业自由现金流折现模型和股权自由现金流折现模型。股利折现法和股权自由现流量模型主要是对股权价值的评价；而企业自由现金流量模型是基于企业自由现金流量和企业资本成本对企业整体价值的评估。因此，企业自由现金流折现模型最适用于并购中的企业价值评估。（二）企业自由现金流折现法企业现金流量折现法是将企业预期自由现金流量按照一定的折现率折现得到企业的价值。其中，表示企业第t期期末的预期自由现金流量；V表示评估基准日目标企业的价值；r表示折现率。一般地，未来预期的自由现金流可以通过对企业自由现金流的界定，分析历史绩效水平得到；折现率可以通过加权平均资本成本（WACC）模型或资本资产定价（CAPM）模型求得，折现率与企业自由现金流要在口径上保持一致；预测期t一般划分为两个阶段，明确预测期和其后阶段，要根据宏观经济发展，行业整体稳定情况和企业自身发展阶段确定。本文将重点介绍自由现金流量的确定。自由现金流量是企业产生的在满足了为保持公司持续发展所需的再投资之后剩余的现金流量，这部分现金流量是企业资本供应者应享有的利益，是可供分配给供应者的最大现金额。3下面将具体说明如何在明确自由现金流量定义的前提下，提高自由现金流量预测的可靠性。（三）利用聚类分析确定收益相关联指标在自由现金流量预测过程中，评估人员需要分析大量内外部信息，庞杂的信息导致评估人员难以迅速找到与收益相关的主要经济指标，降低了评估的效率和可靠度。我们可以应用聚类分析方法来进行迅速的财务分析，找到与企业收益联系最紧密的经济指标。在现实情况中，各个企业由于面临不同的经营环境，拥有不同的资源，不同的客户群体，所以各企业的收益创造的驱动因素也会有所不同。比如，对于一个成熟的国有企业，拥有成熟的经营模式，相对稳定的销售渠道，此时现金比率指标对企业收益不会有太大影响，但该企业存在着大量存量资产，占用资金，还需要相应的费用支出。企业如果采取措施盘活这些存量资产，一方面可以降低资金占用，另一方面还可以提高资产周转，创造收益。此时存货周转率等资产管理比率与收益有较大的相关性。利用聚类分析的方法，衡量企业收益和各经济指标之间的关系，可以充分利用历史数据，计算在一个很长的时间序列中，企业的各个经济计量指标与经济效益之间的距离。4通过观测各个时期距离的变化，就可以确定与企业经济效益最为密切的经济指标，即企业收益的主要驱动因素。在此基础上进行现金流量预测，针对性更强，可靠性更高。四、结论随着中国改革的进一步深化，中国企业面临着向产业高端升级和新兴产业转型的挑战，在这样的发展压力下，中国企业并购市场蓬勃兴起。然而，约40%的企业并购并不能达到预期效果，本文从并购动机，企业并购能力和并购整合三个方面揭示了并购失败的原因，指出客观的企业价值评估是并购成功的必要条件。再者，本文又从提高并购效率，保障各方利益的角度进一步阐释了企业价值评估在并购活动中的重要性。提出并购活动中的企业价值评估是在特点的评估基准日，基于不同的信息使用者的要求和不同的评估目的对企业未来盈利能力的一种预期。本文通过比较成本法，市场法和收益法三种常用的企业价值评估方法与并购活动特点的契合程度，表明收益法在并购中企业价值评估的合理性，并围绕收益法展开详细阐述。收益法以持续经营和收益风险的可预测性为假设前提，适用于物资产较少，专利技术等无形资产所占比重较大，成长性高和发展潜力好的新兴企业或是高新技术企业。企业自由现金流折现模型作为收益法的一种，最适用于并购中的企业价值评估。然而该模型在我国并没有得到广泛应用，其中主要的原因就是评估的可靠性不高。本文针对自由现金流量的预测，提出利用聚类分析方法迅速找到与企业收益联系最紧密的经济指标，在此基础上进行自由现金流量预测，为并购中企业价值评估的客观性提供了基础。The overview, the m&a market development situation in our country, and mergers and acquisitions(a) the m&a market development situation in our countrySince Chinas reform and opening up, Chinese economy has made remarkable achievements. But today, the Chinese economy is faced with excessive energy consumption, unreasonable industrial structure, and a series of serious environmental pollution problems. A slowdown in economic growth, improve the quality of economy is the chief tone of Chinas economic development today. In this economic background, and emerging industry transformation and upgrade to high-end industry is Chinas enterprises have to face the test of the technology reform, the development of channels, and sets up the brand and the management of international strategy and will be China enterprise must grasp the strategic opportunity. Pressure based on the development, Chinese enterprises m&a is active, the m&a market scale growth significantly. It is reported that in 2014 Chinas m&a market a total of 3546 cases, compared with 2013 growth of 44.28%; Transaction amount is RMB 987.4 billion, compared with 2013 growth of 48.44%. 1Overall, Chinas m&a market healthy development momentum; 3 and economically developed regions such as jiangsu and zhejiang holds strong position in the history of m&a scale; Similar to the industrial structure of national economy, the m&a market manufacturing m&a oriented; The information industry, energy and mining, real estate and so on in the m&a market also occupies the main status; Number of private enterprises mergers and acquisitions to catch up with the state-owned enterprises; Overseas mergers and acquisitions at a relatively stable level. It is predicted that in 2015 science and technology (particularly the Internet), financial services, retail, consumer and real estate industry will is a hot spot in mergers and acquisitions; Health care industry is also a key industry, but from this year will be mergers and acquisitions activity slowed; On the whole, Chinas m&a market will continue in 2015 healthy development. 2(2) the problems existing in the m&a market in ChinaMergers and acquisitions refers to the enterprise mergers and acquisitions, international M&A for short. The essence of mergers and acquisitions activity is a business by acquiring some or all of the property rights from another enterprise to achieve control of a kind of investment behavior of the firm. Mergers and acquisitions will cause a change in the property. In various relevant factors and market under the combination of different enterprises own development needs and development, m&a has a variety of different reasons. Enterprise merger in the fundamental reason is that in order to improve the value of the company, to achieve corporate strategic objectives.In practical activity, however, there are a large number of mergers and acquisitions. Figures show that 40% of mergers and acquisitions in recent years has proved far from expected. Main reasons for failure can from mergers and acquisitions, mergers and acquisitions, corporate mergers and acquisitions ability, the target enterprise value assess and m&a integration to discuss four aspects: first, the failure of m&a enterprise m&a motives are often irrational, based on agency theory, managers to curry favor with the investor or at his own performance, blind m&a activities, without considering whether the enterprise effectively; Second, to achieve the ideal effect of mergers and acquisitions, mergers and acquisitions party should have the ability to implement mergers and acquisitions, mergers and acquisitions as a complex investment activity, require m&a should not only have solid financial foundation, more should have a good management ability, the target enterprise resources effectively integrated into the enterprise after the merger, achieve the desired effect and coordination; Based on the merger and acquisition strategy and purpose of different, different m&a party on the same target enterprise may have different valuations. M&a, therefore, in the implementation of the square to the target enterprise merger and acquisition of a complete and detailed evaluation, fully understand the advantages and disadvantages of target enterprise, considering both sides of the complementary resources, to make a prediction enterprise run after the merger plan, etc.; Finally, the effect of the merger integration directly affect the success of mergers and acquisitions, the effect of the m&a integration, depends on the effectiveness of the both sides of the cultural integration and management. Especially, to enhance the identity of both enterprise staff for mergers and acquisitions, a commitment to the organization. From top to bottom enterprise merger integration, to achieve the synergy effect.The failure of the merger and acquisition reason it is also the key factors in the success of the mergers and acquisitions. Necessary for the successful merger is the objective assessment of target enterprise value, is the enterprise value assessment plays a considerable role in mergers and acquisitions.Second, the merger and acquisition activity and evaluation of enterprise value(a) the importance of enterprise value assessment in m&aMergers and acquisitions as a property right trading activities, transaction can realize the core of the problem is that the target enterprise pricing. However, due to limitations such as mergers and acquisitions there is information asymmetry on both sides, it is difficult to form a consistent understanding of enterprise value, which requires professional ability of appraiser, an objective evaluation of enterprise value, the two sides on the basis of assessed value bargaining game, finally reached an agreement. Enterprise value assessment, therefore, assumes the role of media in the process of mergers and acquisitions, communication opinions from both sides of the m&a, improve the efficiency of m&a.Moreover, enterprise value evaluation is also the principal means of ensure benefits of mergers and acquisitions both sides. Acquirers to fully understand the target enterprise future development potential, and according to oneself circumstance acquisition scheme and integrated planning and management of m&a risk, achieve the expected targets; Objective understand the target enterprise from the Angle of the third party on their own enterprise value, to determine the acceptable price bottom line, is conducive to protect the interests of the owner.Especially in state-owned enterprise merger and acquisition, the evaluation is more important, according to the assessment of state-owned assets management method regulation, in possession of state-owned assets of the unit assets transfer, merger and acquisition, enterprise sales, joint and other economic behavior must be evaluated. State-owned assets assessment is to prevent the loss of assets, protect the safety of state-owned assets.Above from the merger process, mergers and acquisitions the perspective of the interests of all parties, further illustrate the key role in the enterprise value assessment in m&a.(2) the characteristics of the enterprise value evaluation of mergers and acquisitionsAssets assessment criteria in the definition of enterprise value assessment, refers to the certified asset appraiser according to relevant laws, regulations, and assets assessment criteria, the appraisal base date under the specific purpose value of whole enterprise, shareholder rights and interests of all or part of the rights and interests of shareholders value analysis, estimate, and provide professional opinions such as behavior and process. For merger and acquisition activity in enterprise value evaluation, the need to clear the following main contents:First, according to western view of utility theory of value, enterprise value is derived from the enterprise to assess the effectiveness of the delegate to bring. The higher the utility, the higher the enterprise value. The main purpose of the so-called effectiveness, from mergers and acquisitions, said future profitability can be used. It seems that the enterprise value evaluation measure at the core of the enterprise future profitability.Second, the enterprise value has different types, it according to enterprises stage of life cycle and change with the changes in the level of profit. At the early stages of the start-up period and growth period, the enterprise is in a state of losses or small profit, production and operation for the enterprise value is embodied in tangible assets replacement cost value; In the late stage of growth period and mature period, the enterprise to reap profits, enterprise value lies in intangible assets, tangible assets and the value of the two interact with each other; In the recession, the enterprise on the verge of bankruptcy, not the consumption of compensation value of the asset, the enterprise value embodies in bankruptcy liquidation value. Therefore, clear enterprise value type is to understand the necessary path of enterprise value. Third, different information users, based on the different Angle, the results of the assessment of enterprise value will also be different. For the target enterprise, the need to consider is to continue independence of business enterprise value; For mergers and acquisitions party, have different purposes of mergers and acquisitions, such as have a plenty of in order to expand the scale of production, have a plenty of to diversification reduces risk and so on, different management integration ability, many factors lead to the final assessment of the target enterprise value are different. Therefore, in the process of assessing the enterprise value to define the nature of information users and evaluation purposes.In addition, the execution of the enterprise value appraisal business, shall determine the following basic items: assessment report users; Evaluation objects and the evaluation scope; Appraisal base date; Assessment hypothesis, etc.In general, the merger and acquisition activity in enterprise value evaluation is the base date in assessing characteristics, based on the requirements of different information users and different evaluation purposes an expected future profitability of the enterprise.Third, mergers and acquisitions in the enterprise value evaluation method of choiceInternational assessment criteria when it comes to asset appraisal basic method points out: cost method, market method and income method is the most commonly used three kinds of assets evaluation method. Mergers and acquisitions in the enterprise value assessment, consideration should be given to the characteristics of the merger and acquisition activity to choose.Mergers and acquisitions as an investment activity, is essentially in the purchase of the target enterprise in the future, more emphasis on enterprise development in the future. The cost method is based on historical cost, adjust the book value of enterprise assets assessed value; Marketing is based on market value, enterprise is similar to the current market or similar m&a cases, the value of the target enterprise; The income approach is to consider the time value of assets and the risk factors, the expected income capitalization or discount enterprise value assessment, on the type of value, income method more accord with the characteristics of the merger and acquisition activity. In addition, the cost method to assess asset is the value of the enterprise, and ignore the value of the interaction between resource value, instead of the enterprise as a whole, considering its profitability; Marketing depends on the mature and effective capital market, but the current our country securities market is not mature, the market mechanism is imperfect, the fair sex data is low, it has been widely used for marketing. Enterprise merger in main purpose is to create value and maximize enterprise value. And income approach is based on the enterprise future profitability, highlighted the enterprise in the future use of a variety of internal and external resources, to realize the process of whole enterprise value maximization.In conclusion, income approach fits the characteristics of enterprise value assessment in m&a, this article mainly revolves around income method in this paper.(a) description of income methodIncome approach is based on the enterprise future profitability, at a reasonable monetary to predict future earnings and risk, with the sum of its present value as the value of the current date. Income approach