经营冒险的计划.ppt

ProjectRiskManagementorHelpingteamstotakerisks 2 Contents Need benefitsofRiskManagementDefinitionofRiskPhilosophyofRiskManagementIntegrationwithinIPMRiskQuickScanRiskDiagnosisMethodologyFinalthoughtsandadvice 3 WhyManageRisk Inarapidlychangingworld XXXneedstobequickertoanticipatechange fastertoactandevenmoreenterprising Currently wearetooinward lookingandpossiblyrisk averse Toaccelerategrowth XXXmusthavethelookandfeelofanorganisationwithasingle mindedpassionforwinning 4 TherearesixmandatoriesthattheUECinsiststhateachandeveryOperatingCompanyabidesby whichmaybesubjecttoAuditscrutiny Thereisaformalprocessformonitoringrisk TheXXXIPMGuidelinesforSeniorManagement 5 Whatis Risk InEnglishitisderivedfromtheearlyItalian risacore meaning todare OxfordEnglishDictionary Hazard danger exposuretomischanceorperil Thechanceofhazardofcommercialloss consideredthesourceofprofit 6 Somepeople sideaofRiskManagement Zaphod putonthesunglasses TheywereadoublepairofJooJanta200SuperChromaticPerilSensitivesunglasses whichhadbeenspeciallydesignedtohelppeopledeveloparelaxedattitudetodanger Atthefirsthintoftroubletheyturntotallyblackandthuspreventyouseeinganythingthatmightharmyou DAdams TheRestaurantattheEndoftheUniverse 7 TopicsforDiscussion Whatdoesriskmeantoyou Whathappensifyouignorerisk Isriskgoodorbad 8 FoodforThought Andthetroubleis ifyoudon triskanything youriskevenmore EricaJong Avoidingdangerisnosaferinthelongrunthanexposure HelenKeller Ashipinharbourissafe butthat snotwhatshipsarebuiltfor WilliamShedd Riskandrewardtravelsidebyside Avoidoneandtheotherwillalsopassyouby Anon Halfthefailuresinlifearisefrompullinginone shorseasitisleaping JuliusHare Youmiss100percentoftheshotsyounevertake WayneGretzky 9 MoreFoodforThought Experienceisnotwhathappenstoyou itiswhatyoudowithwhathappenstoyou AldousHuxley 10 WhatlessonscanwelearnfromtherealexpertsinRiskManagement TheInsuranceindustry AnotherPerspective 11 DefinitionsinInsuranceIndustry RiskisuncertaintySpeculativerisk ChanceofgainorlossPurerisk Chanceoflossonly 12 Loss NegativeimpactofaneventPeril Causeofalosse g fire windstorm explosionHazard Increaseschanceoflosse g oilyrags unguardedmachines DefinitionsinInsuranceIndustry 13 RiskManagementinInsurance Reducerisk Reduceuncertaintyofportfolioe g increasescale diversify Transferrisk Contracts e g reinsurance Retainrisk Acceptresidualuncertainty Thesearetheresponsibilitiesoftheunderwriter 14 Reducehazard Reduceprobabilityoflosse g disposeoilyrags Reduceloss Reduceimpactoflosse g installsprinklers Thesearetheresponsibilitiesofthelosscontrolengineer RiskManagementinInsurance 15 LessonsfromInsuranceIndustry GoodportfoliomanagementBalancedportfoliocanreduceriskGoodprojectmanagementMustconsiderallpotentialproblemsSpecialistscanreduceprobabilityoflossPlanningcanreduceimpactoflossRiskisNEVEReliminated 16 HowisallthistobeappliedtoInnovationProcessManagement 17 Everythingshouldbeassimpleaspossible butnotsimpler AlbertEinstein 18 DefinitionsatProjectLevel Risk probabilityoflossthroughtheoccurrenceofanundesiredeventProjectRisk potentialforanundesiredeventtocauseaprojectdelayorfailureandtermination Wastedresourceand orlostmarketopportunity CorporateRisk potentialforaprojecttoleadtomaterialdamagetoabrandorthecorporation 19 IPMonRiskManagement BalanceeffortwithdegreeofriskLevel1 InitialRiskScreeningLevel2 RiskQuickScan RQS Level3 RiskDiagnosisMethodology RDM AllprojectsrequireaRiskManagementPlan 20 Level1 InitialRiskScreening ForrolloutprojectswithfamiliartechnologyandmaterialsonlyFoursimplequestionstoconsiderIfanyanswerisyes uncertain proceedtothenextlevelofanalysis theRiskQuickScan BydefinitionResearchProjectsSTARTassessmentatRiskQuickScan 21 Level2 RiskQuickScan BroadoverviewofallperilsandhazardsQualitativeassessmentUsesconsistent unambiguousdefinitions anchoredscale Ifcorporateriskishigh proceedtonextlevelofanalysis RDM 22 Level3 RiskDiagnosisMethodology Thorough in depthanalysisUsestrainedRiskAnalysisFacilitatortoguideprojectteamIncludesindividualinterviews detailedquestionnaire plenarysessiontodebateissuesanddevelopactionplans 23 ComparisonofRALevels 24 RiskManagementPlan RequiredforLevels2 3 TrackriskissuesandactionsHelpteamsandgatekeepersIncorporatedintoGatedocument 25 TheRiskQuickScan RQS 26 Who whatshouldbepresentatanRQS ProjectLeaderProjectBriefProjectteamExpertadviceRQSproformaRQSanchoredscalesFacilitator 27 WhentodoanRQS MandatorythattheteamcompleteanRQSandactionplanbeforetheprojectcharterisgranted Reviewedatsubsequentgatesandmilestones Reviewedafteranysubstantialchangeintheproject Doestheprojectnowrequireafull RDM analysis TheRQSmaybenefitfromfacilitationbutthisisnotessential 28 WhatvaluedoesfacilitationaddtoRQS GetsTeamtoexamineissuesNOTjusttickboxesGetteamtore examineassumptionsAdviseonbestpractice specialistcontactsLearnfromotherprojectsinsame differentCategoryGetallteammemberstocontribute 29 ProjectRiskPotentialforanundesiredeventtocauseaprojectdelayorfailure termination wastedresourceand orlostmarketopportunity 1 ConsumerNeed2 Scientific TechnicalFeasibility3 TechnicalComplexity4 Technical ProfessionalSkills5 EvaluationMethods6 ExternalExpertise Technology7 ExternalCredibilityandSupport8 ProprietaryPosition9 FreedomtoUse10 Manufacturing SupplyChainCapability 11 MaterialSupply12 RegulatoryIssues13 UnileverSafetyClearance14 EnvironmentalSafety15 Distribution ChannelstoMarket16 CompetitorResponse17 KeyDecisionPointsIdentified18 AvailabilityofResources19 AccountabilitiesAgreed 30 CorporateRiskPotentialforaprojecttoleadtomaterialdamagetoaUnileverbrandorthecorporation 1 Reputation2 VulnerabilitytoChallenge3 StrategicImportance4 FinancialTargets5 InvestmentRisk Whyiscorporateriskimportant 31 ExampleAnchoredScale Magnitudeofresponsefrom1 5 32 HowtoUsetheScales Theanchorpointsareintendedtoallowteamstogaugethemagnitudeofthisparticularriskfortheirproject Someteamsmayneedtousearangeratherthanonefigure 33 HowtoUsetheScales IdentifyingtheISSUESforaprojectismoreimportantthantheexactrating remembertheratingisqualitative Theratingcanbedividedinto 1 2Lowrisk stillsomeissueswhichcanbeaddressed3 4 5Mediumtohighrisk issueshereMUSTbeactivelymanaged 34 RQS spreadofscores questionstoask Isthisahighriskproject Canwealonemanagetherisk Who whatextradoweneed Whatdowewishtoputinthegatedocument IfanyCorporateRiskfactoris3orabovethenanRDMisindicatedAteamcanalsorequestanRDM 35 RiskManagementPlan 4possibleresponsestoRiskRETAINiflowriskexposureelse AVOID ifuncontrollableelse REDUCE takeactionstocontrolor TRANSFER impactaswellasactions DecideonactionplansWHOdoesWHATbyWHENPlanmustbedynamic Noplansurvivescontactwiththeenemy WWIISoldier 36 IfanRDMischosen indicated DiscusswithseniormembersofyourmanagementGatekeepernotifiedGatekeepernotifiesCategorySVPProjectminutedatnextInternationalCategoryBoardmeeting 37 TheRiskDiagnosisMethodology RDM TheRDM surface articulateallrisks assessrisksobjectively prioritiserisks risk reducingactions 1 2 3 decidewhoshouldbeinvolvedtriggerlistinterviewscaptureriskissues questionnairerisktopographysoftware plenaryprojectre plan 39 RDMInterviewingEthosofRiskFacilitators Knowledgegap fillingConfidentialityNon attributablerecordsSafedocumenthandlingGuardianof lonevoice Notproblemsolving 40 AftertheInterviews CrystallisingtheIssues byfacilitators QuestionnaireCollationofriskissuesTranslationintoPOSITIVERISKSTATEMENTSTeammembersscoreissues facilitatorsanalysetheresults 41 PlenarySession Takingdecisionsandownership SelecthighestriskissuestobediscussedfordecisionsandactionplanningConstructagendawithPL PlenaryChairman whatiswantedDecidewithPLwhoshouldbepresent inadditiontotheteam 42 AddedvalueofRDM TeamREALLYthinkabouttheprojectandwhattheyshoulddotoensuresuccessThoroughidentificationofallforeseeablerisksIncreasedteamandstakeholdercommitmentIncreasedteamconfidenceinabilitytocreatesuccess improvedteamdynamics 43 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