(宏观经济学-东伊利诺伊大学).ppt

copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 1 chapter1 introductiontomacroeconomics copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 2 questions howmuchricherarewethanourparents howmuchricherwillourchildrenbethanourgrandparentswere willchangingjobsbeeasyorhardinfiveyears howmanyofuswillhavejobsinfiveyears copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 3 questions willthebusinessesweworkforvanishasdemandfortheproductstheymakedriesup willinflationmakeuspoorbydestroyingoursavingsorrichbyeliminatingourdebts copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 4 macroeconomics isthesubdisciplineofeconomicsthattriestoanswerthesesixquestionsisthebranchofeconomicsrelatedtotheeconomyasawhole copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 5 macroeconomists trytofigureoutwhyoveralleconomicactivityrisesandfallstrytounderstandwhatdeterminesthelevelandrateofchangeofthepricelevelstudyothervariablesthatplayamajorroleindeterminingtheoveralllevelsofproduction income employment andprices copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 6 whymacroeconomicsmatters culturalliteracyabilitytofollowandparticipateinpublicdebatesanddiscussionsunderstandingofnewsreportsonchangesintheeconomy copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 7 figure1 1 thedailyflowofeconomicnews copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 8 whymacroeconomicsmatters self interesteffectsofmacroeconomyonourdailylivesunderstandingofchangingopportunitiesastheeconomyfluctuates copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 9 whymacroeconomicsmatters civicresponsibilitymoreinformedvotingmoreresponsiblemacroeconomicpolicy copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 10 macroeconomicpolicy growthpolicypoliciestoaccelerateordeceleratelong runeconomicgrowthmostimportantpoliciesforthelong run copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 11 figure1 2 long runeconomicgrowth swedenandargentina 1900 2000 copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 12 macroeconomicpolicy stabilizationpolicypoliciestosmoothoutthebusinesscyclebydiminishingthedepthofrecessionsanddepressionsbusinesscyclesarefluctuationsinproductionandemploymentboomsorexpansionsoccurwhenproductiongrowsandunemploymentfallsrecessionsordepressionsoccurwhenproductionfallsandunemploymentrises copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 13 figure1 3 theamericanbusinesscycle fluctuationsintotalproductionrelativetothelong rungrowthtrend copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 14 macroeconomicsversusmicroeconomics macroeconomistsexaminetheeconomyasawholefocusonthefeedbackfromonecomponentoftheeconomytoanotherstudythetotallevelofproductionandemploymentbelievethatimbalancesbetweensupplyanddemandmayberesolvedbychangesinquantitiesratherthanprices copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 15 macroeconomicsversusmicroeconomics microeconomistsstudythemarketsforsinglecommoditiesandthebehaviorofindividualhouseholdsandfirmsfocusonhowcompetitivemarketsallocateresourcestocreateconsumerandproducersurplusassumethatimbalancesbetweendemandandsupplyareresolvedbychangesinprices copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 16 economicstatisticsandeconomicactivity economicactivityisthepatternoftransactionsinwhichthingsofreal usefulvaluearecreated transformed andexchanged nationalincomeandproductaccounts nipa reportedbytheu s commercedepartment sbureauofeconomicanalysis copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 17 table1 2 theflowofeconomicdata 2000 2001 copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 18 sixkeyeconomicvariables realgrossdomesticproduct gdp iscorrectedforchangesinthepricelevel real includesthereplacementofworn outandobsoleteequipmentandstructuresaswellasnewinvestment gross countseconomicactivitythathappensintheunitedstates domestic representstheproductionoffinalgoodsandservices product copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 19 sixkeyeconomicvariables realgrossdomesticproductoftendividedbythenumberofworkersintheeconomymeasureshowwelltheeconomyproducesgoodsandservicesthatpeoplefindusefuldoesnotindicatetherelativedistributionofthenation seconomicproductisanimperfectmeasureofeconomicwell being copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 20 figure1 4 officiallymeasuredrealgdpperworkerintheunitedstates copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 21 sixkeyeconomicvariables theunemploymentratetobeunemployed apersonmustwanttoworkandbeactivelylookingforajob buthavenotyetfoundone thelaborforceconsistsofthosewhoareemployedandthosewhoareunemployedtheunemploymentrateisequaltothenumberofunemployedpeopledividedbythelaborforce copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 22 figure1 5 theu s unemploymentrate copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 23 sixkeyeconomicvariables theunemploymentratefrictionalunemploymentoccursbecauseworkersandfirmsspendtimesearchingforthebestmatchcyclicalunemploymentoccursduringrecessionsanddepressionstheunemploymentrateisthebestindicatorofhowwelltheeconomyisdoingrelativetoitsproductivepotential copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 24 sixkeyeconomicvariables theinflationrateisameasureofhowfasttheoverallpricelevelisrisinghyperinflationoccurswhenthepricelevelisrisingbymorethan20 permonth copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 25 figure1 6 inflationintheunitedstates copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 26 sixkeyeconomicvariables theinterestrateisimportantbecauseitgovernstheredistributionofpurchasingpoweracrosstimethemanydifferentinterestratesintheeconomyvarybydurationanddegreeofriskoftenmoveupanddowntogether copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 27 sixkeyeconomicvariables theinterestratenominalinterestrateistheinterestrateintermsofmoneydoesnottakeintoaccounttheeffectsofinflationrealinterestrateistheinterestrateintermsofgoodsandservicesdoestakeintoaccounttheeffectsofinflation copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 28 figure1 7 u s realinterestrates 1960 1999 copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 29 sixkeyeconomicvariables thestockmarketisheardaboutmostoften everyday isanindexofexpectationsforthefutureahighvaluemeansthatinvestorsexpecteconomicgrowthtoberapid profitstobehigh andunemploymenttobelow copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 30 figure1 8 realstockindexprices copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 31 sixkeyeconomicvariables theexchangerategovernsthetermsonwhichinternationaltradeandinvestmenttakeplacenominalexchangerateistherateatwhichmoniesofdifferentcountriescanbeexchangedforoneanotherrealexchangerateistherateatwhichthegoodsandservicesproducedindifferentcountriescanbeexchangedforoneanother copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 32 sixkeyeconomicvariables theexchangerateifdomesticcurrencyappreciatesitsvalueintermsofothercurrenciesincreasesforeign producedgoodsarerelativelycheapfordomesticbuyersimportsarelikelytobehighdomestic madegoodsarerelativelyexpensiveforforeignersexportsarelikelytobelow copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 33 sixkeyeconomicvariables theexchangerateifdomesticcurrencydepreciatesitsvalueintermsofothercurrenciesdeclinesdomestic producedgoodsarerelativelycheapforforeignbuyersexportsarelikelytobehighforeign madegoodsarerelativelyexpensivefordomesticbuyersimportsarelikelytobelow copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 34 figure1 9 theu s realexchangerate thedollaragainstacompositeindexofforeigncurrencies copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 35 thecurrentmacroeconomicsituation theunitedstates 2001economicgrowthhasslowedtoaveryweakpaceforecastfor2001isthatrealgdpwillgrowbynomorethan1 8 interestratesloweredthroughfedpolicyduetolags effectsoflowerinterestrateswillnotbefeltuntilendof2001 attheearliest inflationcontinuestobelow copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 36 thecurrentmacroeconomicsituation theunitedstates recentpastfromearly1990sto2000 therewasaneconomicboomunemploymentfellduringthe1990slowestunemploymentrateintwodecades 4 realwagesincreasedonlyslightlyhelpedtokeepinflationlow copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 37 thecurrentmacroeconomicsituation europeeconomicgrowthincountriesbelongingtotheeuropeanmonetaryunionslowinglowinflationlessthan2 peryearrelativelyhighunemploymentnear10 copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 38 thecurrentmacroeconomicsituation japanslowgrowthraterealgdpgrewonly1 8 in2000realgdpisexpectedtogrowonlyby1 4 in2001deflationisoccurringtheoverallpricelevelfellby0 7 in2000 copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 39 chaptersummary macroeconomicsisthestudyoftheoveralleconomy therearethreekeyreasonstostudymacroeconomicstogainculturalliteracytounderstandhoweconomictrendsaffectyoupersonallytoexerciseyourresponsibilityasavoterandcitizen copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 1 40 chaptersummary thekeyindicatorsinmacroeconomicsarerealgdptheunemploymentratetheinflationratetheinterestratethelevelofthestockmarkettheexchangerate copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 41 chapter2 measuringthemacroeconomy copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 42 questions whatkeydatadomacroeconomistslookat howarekeymacroeconomicdataestimatedandcalculated whatisthedifferencebetween nominal and real values howarestockmarketvaluesrelatedtointerestrates copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 43 questions howareinterestratesrelatedtothepricelevelandtheinflationrate howisunemploymentrelatedtototalproduction whatisright andwhatiswrong withthekeymeasureofeconomicactivity realgdp copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 44 theimportanceofdata economistsusequantitativedatatoexamineandunderstandbehaviorpricesquantitiesvaluesdatacanbeusedintwowaysmakequantitativeforecaststesteconomictheories copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 45 mostimportantmacroeconomicdata realgdptheunemploymentratetheinflationratetheinterestratethelevelofthestockmarkettheexchangerate copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 46 table2 1 thesixkeyeconomicvariables copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 47 theexchangerate thenominalexchangerateistherelativepriceoftwodifferentcurrenciesdeterminedintheforeignexchangemarketexample 1 00equals 1 20 1 00equals 0 83 copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 48 theexchangerate domesticexportersearnforeigncurrencywhentheyexportproductsneedtotradetheforeigncurrencyfordollarsforeignproducersearndollarswhenu s residentsimporttheirproductsneedtotradethedollarsforforeigncurrency copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 49 figure2 1 themarketforforeignexchange copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 50 theexchangerate therealexchangerateisthenominalexchangerateadjustedforchangesinthevalueofthecurrencydependsonthenominalexchangerateandthepricelevel copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 51 theexchangerate example1nominalexchangeratechangesfrom 1 20 1 00to 2 40 1 00priceleveldoublesrealexchangerateisunchangedexample2nominalexchangerateremainsatthesamelevel 1 20 1 00 priceleveldoublesrealexchangeratefallsbyhalf copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 52 theexchangerate example3nominalexchangerateincreasesfrom 1 20 1 00to 2 30 1 00pricelevelremainsthesamerealexchangeratedoubles copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 53 theexchangerate tocalculatetherealexchangerate youneedthreepiecesofinformationpricelevelinthehomecountry p pricelevelabroad p nominalexchangerate e copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 54 theexchangerate therearemanydifferentcurrenciesintheworldmanydifferentexchangerateseconomistsconstructanexchangerateindextorepresent the exchangerateeachcountryreceivesaweightequaltoitsshareoftotalu s trade copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 55 theexchangerate theexchangerateindexisbyaveragingeachcountry scurrentexchangeraterelativetoitsexchangerateinthebaseyear 1992 copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 56 figure2 2 theexchangerateindex 1992 1998 copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 57 thestockmarket themostrepresentativeindexoftheu s stockmarketisthestandardandpoor scompositeindex s p500 themostcommonlydiscussedindexoftheu s stockmarketisthedow jonesindustrialaverage copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 58 thestockmarket stockmarketaveragesareinnominaltermsmustdividebysomemeasureofthepriceleveltogettherealvalueofthestockmarkettherealvalueofthestockmarketisasensitiveindicatoroftherelativeoptimismorpessimismofinvestorscanforecastfutureinvestmentspending copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 59 thestockmarket investorsfaceachoicebetweenholdingstocksandholdingbondsstocksaresharesofownershipofacorporationentitlesyoutoaportionofthecompany sprofitsbondsaredebtsthatthecorporationowesyoupaysperiodicinterestpaymentsandreturnsprincipaltoyouatmaturity copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 60 thestockmarket ratesofreturnforbonds therateofreturnistheinterestrate r forstocks therateofreturnistheratioofearningspershare es tothepricepaid ps stocksareriskyinvestorsmayrequireariskpremium s copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 61 thestockmarket investorswillholdonlystocksif investorswillholdonlybondsif copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 62 thestockmarket investorswillholdbothstocksandbondsif thismeansthatthevalueofastockisequalto copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 63 thestockmarket howcanwemeasurees newspaperreportswhatthefirm saccountantshavecalculated ea investorsareinterestedinsomelong runaverageofexpectedfutureearnings es needanestimateoftherelationshipbetweeneaandes copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 64 figure2 3 calculatingthevalueofabasketofstocks copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 65 thestockmarket providesinformationonthecurrentlevelofprofits earnings whetherinvestorsareoptimisticorpessimisticthecurrentcostofcapitalattitudestowardrisk copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 66 theinterestrate isthepriceatwhichpurchasingpowercanbeshiftedfromthefutureintothepresentisnotasinglelumpsum butanongoingstreamofpaymentsmadeovertimeisaflowvariable copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 67 theinterestrate thereisalargenumberofdifferentinterestratesthatvarybyriskdurationtaxtreatmentpublishedinterestratesarenominalinterestrates copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 68 figure2 4 therealversusthenominalinterestrate copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 69 thepricelevel ismostfrequentlymeasuredbytheconsumerpriceindex cpi whichiscalculatedmonthlybythebureauoflaborstatisticsisanexpenditure weightedindex copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 70 table2 5 calculatingapriceindexforfruit anexample copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 71 theconsumerpriceindex priceindexformula copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 72 theconsumerpriceindex inthebaseyear thepriceindexwillequal100 copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 73 theconsumerpriceindex inthesubsequentyear thepriceindexwillequal138 copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 74 kindsofindexnumbers laspeyresindexusesrelativeexpenditurelevelsinafixedbaseyearasweightsexample consumerpriceindexpaascheindexusescurrent variableexpenditurelevelsasweightsexample gdpdeflator copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 75 kindsofindexnumbers allpriceindicesareimperfectthelaspeyresindexoverstatestheeffectsofpriceincreasesbasedonafixedmarketbasketdoesnottakeintoaccountthatconsumerssubstituterelativelycheapergoodsforrelativelymoreexpensivegoodswhenpricesrise substitutionbias copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 76 kindsofindexnumbers allpriceindicesareimperfectthepaascheindexunderstatestheeffectsofpriceincreasesdoestakeaccountofsubstitutiondoesnottakeintoaccountthefactthatsubstituteditemsareless valuedthantheitemstheyreplace copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 77 theinflationrate isameasureoftherateofchangeinthepricelevelovertimeisaflowvariablecanbemeasuredusingdifferentpriceindicesconsumerpriceindex cpi gdpdeflator copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 78 figure2 5 differentmeasuresofu s inflation 1960 2000 copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 79 theunemploymentrate isthefractionofpeoplewhowantajobarelookingforajobcannotfindajobiscalculatedusingthecurrentpopulationsurveymonthlysurveybythebureauoflaborstatistics copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 80 theunemploymentrate individualsareclassifiedintooneoffourcategoriesthosewhoareemployedthosewhoareoutofthelaborforceanddonotwantajobcurrentlythosewhodowantajobcurrently buthavegivenuplookingforonethosewhodowantajobandarecurrentlylookingforone copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 81 theunemploymentrate copyright 2002bythemcgraw hillcompanies inc allrightsreserved 2 82 figure2 6 theu s unemploymentratesince1950 copyr