外文翻译世界纺织品和服装活动.doc

外文翻译-世界纺织品和服装活动 毕业论文外文翻译外文题目： china and the international relocation of world textile and clothing activity 出 处： interconomics, 2005, volume 40, number 4, pages 226-234 作 者： kym anderson and young-il park 译 文：of world textile and clothing activity 世界纺织品和服装活动by 作者kym anderson and young-il park kym anderson and young-il parkc ontents: i. introduction.导言- ii. 二comparative advantage in fibres, textiles andcloth比较优势 -iii. 三china and the other east asian economi中国和其他东亚经济体。 - iv.四conclusions andpolicy implicatio结论实践启示。 1. introduction 1简介t he dramatic reforms of chinas economic policies since the late 1970s particularly the opening up of china to international trade and investment have stimulated very rapid growth in this populous economy.during the past decade chinas real gdp per capita and volume of exports have grown at more than 6 and 10 percent per year, respectively- treblethe rates for other developing countries and for the world as a whole and close to the remarkable performance of east asias more advanced developing economies. 国际贸易和投资的戏剧性的改革对中国的经济政策，70年代末以来，（在人口有刺激增长十分迅速，在过去十年，中国出口量的实际人均国内生产总值每增长超过百分之6和10左右，较发达的经济体诚然，中国仍只占超过百分之二的世界国内生产总值和百分之出口产品，但对于一些更接近基本商品的重要性世界市场在某些情况下是超过了。食品，一些矿物质和金属，纤维，纺织品和服装是在特殊类别。 this paper addresses the question: how important is china becoming in world textile and clothing markets?本文讨论的问题：中国成为世界纺织品和服装？ in particular, to what extent is china contributing to the international relocation of textile and clothing activity tothe east asian region? 特别是，在有助于亚洲地区的国际纺织品和服装迁移？纺织和服装生产进口纤维扩大国内纤维生产以满足中国光纤制造商？ the evidence is clear that china has already become a substantial player in world textile and clothing markets.有证据表明中国已经成为在世界纺织服装市场大玩家as table 1 shows, chinas share of world production of cotton textiles has increased from 20 to 26 percent since the economic reforms began, while its shares of wool textiles, synthetic textiles and blankets have trebled.如表1所示，自经济改革开始中国的纺织品占世界棉花产量已由原来的百分之20增至26，而其毛毯的毛纺织品，化纤纺织已增加了两倍。 the table also shows that chinas share of global production of raw wool has crept up, and its share of raw cotton has increased phenomenally to 30 percent in 1984, double its share of a decade ag该表还显示，中国的羊毛占全球生产原料攀升，其棉花份额已增至惊人1984年的百分之30，。（1985年的，留下了真正的传统天然纤维的出口疑中国是否会成为 table 1 - china s shares of worm production of natural fibres and textiles, 表1 - 中国“的纺织股和蜗杆生产天然纤维，1976 to 1984 percent, volume based 1976至1984年（百分比，体积计算）product 产品 1976-78 1976-1978年 1982-84 1982-84 product 产品 1976-7 1976 - 7 982-84 982-84 1985 1985年 cotton textiles 棉纺织品 19.7 19.7 25.9 25.9 blankets 毯子 4.1 4.1 11.5 11.5 wool textiles 毛纺织品 1.6 1.6 4.3 4.3 raw cotton 原棉 15.2 15.2 28.6 28.6 25.1 25.1 synthetic 综合 textiles 纺织品 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 raw wool 原毛 clean basic （） 4.1 4.1 5.0 5.0 5.5 5.5 1976. 1976- 1983.1983年 chinas greasy wool production is converted to a clean equivalent basis by 中国的原毛生产转换为 multiplying by 0.45 source: state statistical bureau a, various issues; un a, various issues; fao a, various issues for world production of cotton and wool . 来源：国家统计局的a，各种问题联合国，各种问题，粮农组织的a，各种问题（世界棉花和羊毛生产）。 drawing on standard trade and development theory summarised in the next section, the present paper argues that those recent rates of increase in natural fibre production in china are likely to slow down and that china in the longer term will steadily become a larger net importer of natural fibres as its comparative advantage in manufactured goods strengthens. 图上标准贸易和发展理论概括，本文认为，比较优势在增强中国在较长期内将稳步成为一个更大的纤维及其制成品的净进口国。the paper also argues that china is becoming a large importer of synthetic fibres, which will allow the textile industries in the more advanced industrial economies of east asia and perhaps europe greater scope for specialization in this and other more eapital-intensive areas of textile production as china displaces them from world markets for unskilled-labour-intensive products such as fmished该还认为，中国正在成为合成纤维进口大国，这将使东亚纺织行业较为先进的工业经济在欧洲更大程度的专业化，也许在这个范围更多密集的纺织领域中如 textiles and standard clo much depends, however, on the extent to which the multifibre arrangement limits chinas capacity to exploit its strengthening comparative advantage in labour-intensive manufactures, a point taken up in the final section of the paper on the implications of chinas growth for other countries trade in fibres, textiles and clothing. 这在很大程度上取决于，多种纤维限制中国利用劳动密集型制成品的强化比较优势的能力，在贸易的角度采取的最后一节就在对中国国家的经济增长对其他文件的影响，在纤维，纺织品和服装。 ii. 二comparative advantage in fibres, textiles and cloth纤维，纺织及制衣standard trade and development theory suggests that a poor country opening up to international trade will tend to specialize in the export of primary products, though less so, the more densely-populated the country. 标准贸易和发展理论表明，一个贫穷的国家开放国际贸易将趋于专门从事出口初级产品，人口较稠密的国家。 if its domestic incomes grow more rapidly than the rest of the worlds, its export specialization will gradually switch away from primary products in raw or lightly processed form to manufactures. 如果其国内收入的增加世界更为迅速，其出口专业化将逐渐转离初级产品（原材料或轻度加工的形式）。资源较贫乏的国家或 the manufactured goods initially exported will be more labour-intensive, the more resource-poor or denselypopulated the countr最初的制成品出口将更多的劳动密集。 since many though by no means all textile and clothing production activities tend to be intensive in the use of unskilled labour, they would be among the items initially exported by a newly industrializing, densely-populated country由于许多（尽管并非全部）纺织和服装生产活动往往是劳动密集型的低技术的使用，出口项目最初由新兴工业化。 and as the demands for textile raw materials by that countrys expanding textile industry grow, so the countrys net exports of natural fibre would diminish, or net imports of natural fibre would increase, ceteris paribus. 而且随着这个产业化国家的纺织品的需求不断扩大纺织原料的生长，该国的天然纤维的净出口将减少，或者净进口的天然纤维会增加，其他条件不。 i. global cross-sectional evidence 一，全球截面据this theory has strong empirical support. 这一理论具有很强的实证支持。the theory suggests the share of primary products in total exports pri would be negatively related to both per capita income y, a crude index of the endowment of capital per worker and population density pd, a crude index of the endowment of natural resources per capita and this is what is obtained in estimating ols regression equations from cross-sectional data.该理论认为pri（总出口中主要产品占得比例）的整体出口初级产品将是负相关两者的均（y，一个）和人口密度（pd，一个），这得到估计截面数据的ols回归方程的十字。 for example, using the data available for the y例如，使用现有的数据年度 1983 from the world bank b, 1985, 1986 for 69 countries with populations exceeding one million, one obtains the following regression result t-values in parentheses世界银行1983年世界并b，1985年，1986 69）的国家人口超过百万，一得到下列回归结果（t值： pri 180.4 - 9.751ny - 11.521npd, r2 .54 5.68 7.15 the theory suggests also that the share of labour-intensive goods such as textiles and clothing in total exports of manufactures would be negatively related to per capita income, again assuming the latter reflects each countrys capital/labour ratio.该理论认为还认为，在分享劳动密集型产品如纺织品服装总出口和生产与人均收入将是负相关，后者反映了假定每个国家的资本/劳动比率。 the same world bank source provides data on 1983 shares of textiles and clothing in manufactured exports tex for 57 of those 69 countries, from which the following regression equation is obtained同样的世界银行数据源提供的是1983纺织品和服装的回归，其中制成品出口密度的个国家的个，： tex 91.8 - 8.821ny, r2 .29 tex 91.8 - 8.821ny, .29 4.92 these regression equations are dearly consistent with the theory of changing comparative advantage mentioned above.这些回归方程深深地符合以上提到的理论变化的比较优势。 how well does china fit in these patterns中国得如何适应这些模式？ the above equations predict chinas share of primary products in its total exports during 1982-84 to average 68 percent, and its share of textiles and clothing in its exports of manufactured goods to average 39 percent上述方程预测初级产品出口占1982年至1984年期间，中国产品在其总的平均为百分之68，其纺织品和服装制成品的出口份额平均为百分之39。 the ftrst of these predicted shares is well above the actual 1982-84 share of 49 percent, and the second is identical to the actual share for 1982-84 although it had been above in earlier years.这些预测，远高于实际1982-84份额百分之49，而第二个的实际份额1982-84多年来，它上。 one of the reasons for the actual shares being below those predicted has to do with chinas previous development strategy, which was perhaps more extreme than that of other developing countries in i discouraging food and clothing exports in an attempt to keep down domestic prices of these basic items , ii in discouraging the export of industrial raw materials and energy products to keep down the cost of industrial production , and iii in encouraging heavy industry relative to light industry to reduce the need to import capital-intensive manufactured goods .其中国内价格的不断下降企图理由，对实际股票被低于所预测的，是因为有中国以前的食品发展劝阻战略，该战略也许是更极端高于其他发展中国的 i 令人沮丧的食品和服装出口（尝试，尽量减少这些基本项目的国内价格），（ii）产品出口工业原料和能源（保持了生产成本），和 iii 相对于轻工业鼓励重工业（以减少需要进口资本密集型制成品）。 with the recent dramatic reforms to chinas development strategy, involving substantial liberalization to these distortions in producer incentives, one might therefore expect to see chinas shares of primary products in total exports and of textiles and clothing in manufactured exports to rise at first, before declining in the manner suggested by the above regression equations.随着近期戏剧性的改革，以中国的发展战略激励机制，涉及大量的自由化生产者这些，人们可能因此期望看到中国制成品出口和服装的初级产品总纺织品出口增加在第一，。 and in fact this has happened: according to world bank data the former rose between 1983 and 1985 from 43 to 46 percent and the latter between 1982 and 1985 from 28 to 44 percent而事实上这已经发生了：根据世界银行的数据，1983年至1985年43和百分之4 2. 2.东亚的time-series evidence from east asia时间序列据japan and the newly industrialized economies of hong kong, south korea and taiwan are, like china, among the worlds most densely-populated coun-tries.日本，香港韩国和台湾的新兴工业化经济体，像中国，世界上稠密的人口。 they also have had the enviable reputation for a long time of enjoying extremely rapid rates of economic growth, as has china since 1978他们令人羡慕的经济增长速度中国1978年以来。 thus the above theory suggests that all five of these economies should lose their comparative advantage in primary products at a relatively early stage of their economic development and have an initial strengthening of comparative advantage in unskilled-labour-intensive manufactured products such as finished textiles and clothing which will eventually diminish因此，上述理论表明，所有这些经济体的在初级产品在其经济发展相对早期阶段，它们的相对优势已经失去，并且在已经具有的比较优势初步加强的非熟练劳动密集型制造产品（如纺织品和服装成品）方面也将最终消失。this is indeed what the historical record shows.这确实是历史的记录。日本的出口总额中初级产品的的份额百分之70世纪第一个但它已逐渐下降当时和现在已经接近零。 the newly industrialized economies of korea and taiwan also exported mostly primary products prior to their industrial take-off, in their case in the early 1960s, but in just two decades their primary export shares have fallen to less than 10 percent韩国和台湾的新兴工业化经济体也大多是初级产品出口前，其工业起飞他们的情况在60年代初，但在仅仅20年他们的出口份额已经下降到不到百分之十。相同的模式已发生在中国。 the development of chinas export capacity will add to the pressure on firms in more advanced industrial economies to move out of labour-intensive manufacturing such as finished textiles and standard clothing.中国出口能力的将增加对企业的经济压力，更先进的工业制造出移劳动密集型的纺织品和标准的成品服装。在一定程度上收入国家竞争压力，但只能在labour-intensive end of the spectru劳动密集型。由于公司在亚洲升级应对竞争压力，从中国到资本密集的纺织过程中，美国和西欧更密集的资本。因此，在可预见的未来纺织品服装出口东亚地区很可能会继续增加。 that is, there is a high probability chinas industrial development will ensure east asias share of world exports of these manufactures - and the regionss share of world imports of fibres - keeps growing. 也就是说，how the rest of the world responds to this competitive pressure from east asia will have a critical bearing on chinas future.如何在世界各地的回应这种东亚的竞争压力，将事关中国。 for china to increase its share of world markets for labour-intensive textiles and clothing in line with its changing comparative advantage, it is essential that advanced industrial countries allow the penetration of increasing volumes of imports of these products from china对于中国，要增加其对劳动密集型纺织品和比较优势及其变化与服装的世界市场份额线，至关重要的是先进的工业国家允许增加来自中国的这些产品的进口量渗透。 without that market access, chinas export growth prospects will be thwarted, which in turn will dampen its overall economic performance and thus its domestic demand for finished textiles and clothing.如果没有市场准入，中国其国内需求和服装纺织成品的出口增长前景受挫，这反过来将削弱其整体经济表现，因此， the new multifibre arrangement mfa negotiated in 1986 between industrial and developing countries, and related agreements, allow for very little export growth from china relative to chinas potential - even though china used its economic and political might to obtain larger quotas than 新的多种纤维协定（mfa）谈判于1986年工业化国家和发展中国家之间展开，以及相关协议，以允许来自中国非常小的出口增长相对中国的潜力尽管中国利用其经济和政