投资者另一个失落的十年.doc

投资者另一个失落的十年？简介1999年以来，标准普尔指数一直在往下走，接下来的十年仍然可能如此。不过如果您能采取一些新策略的话，也许你能在接下来的十年有所收获。1999年以来，标准普尔指数一直在往下走，接下来的十年仍然可能如此。不过如果您能采取一些新策略的话，也许你能在接下来的十年有所收获。【相关内容：股票，中国，巴西，Jim Jubak，ETF】Jim Jubak著过去的十年是许多投资者失落的十年。如果你在1999年十月投资了10,000万美元在标准普尔指数上，十年之后你会发现你损失了900美元不止。投资股票10年但却平均每年损失1%？这不是我们所设想的。那接下来的十年呢？对很多投资者来说，形势仍然严峻，因为他们仍然持有那些会让他们最终一无所获的投资组合。但也许不必如此。让我们回到1999，如果在那时你没有把所有的钱都投资到标准普尔指数，而是投资到了中国-比如说，购买马修斯中国基金（Matthews China，MCHFX）。那你不但不会遭受每年1%的损失，反而会得到18.17%的年收益复利率。当然在那时，只有相当少的人意识到中国会成为那十年的投资传奇。还有一种办法，如果说那时你想到通过共同基金投资新兴市场，比如，购买T. Rowe的价格新兴市场股票基金（T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock Fund，PRMSX），你10年来的年收益复利率也可以达到12.06%。想哭的心都有了吧？ 如果你像很多人那样，在十年前把10，000万美元全部投资了标准普尔指数，十年后你只剩下9,090.52美元。 如果这10，000美元是投入了T. Rowe的价格新兴市场股票，它会增值到31,225.27美元。 如果这10，000美元是投入了马修斯中国基金，它会增值到53,097.29美元。 你知道更让你想哭的是什么吗？10年前就有分散投资的传统投资理念指引我们要多投资海外市场，包括新兴市场。如果你跟随这种理念，把10%的钱投入到了新兴市场，你1%的年损失率就会变成不那么吸引人但好歹是正的收益率0.35%，你口袋里的10，000美元也会变成10,357.53美元。收益总是好过损失，想想看，你的1000块钱为你挣了另外1267块钱，让你的总收益率由负变正，这总比另一个完全亏钱的策略要好得多。如果有谁觉得这1267块钱不是钱的话，就把它寄给我好了。平衡的问题你没有办法回到十年之前去追加海外新兴市场的投资，但是你可以在接下里的十年不犯同样的错误。实际上，很多的美国投资者都在调整他们的策略。美国股市占全球股市的份额随着其他国家扩大经济总量和深化资本市场一直在减少。2004年，根据标准普尔的研究，美国资本市场占全球自由资本的53%。（许多中国和印度的资本在政府的控制下不能自由交易。）到了2007年，这个百分比下降到了44%，到了2008年则变成了41%。美国投资者的投资分配并没有跟上这个趋势。不同类型的美国投资者投资了约2%到20%的股票份额在海外股票上。而401k投资者投资了约12%的股票份额在海外股票上。即使你仅仅关注一下世界股票市场的构成，你也会发现美国投资者在本国股票上的过度投资和在外国股票上的缺乏投资。发展中国家的崛起如果人们预期美国经济会比世界上其他经济体发展快的话，这对美国投资者来说就不是坏消息了。但是，经济合作发展组织（Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development， OECD）预计美国经济2010年的增长率是2.5%，2011年是2.8%；预计中国2010年的增长率是10.2%，2011年是9.3%；预计印度2010年7.3%，2011年7.6%；预计巴西2010年4.8%，2011年4.5%。当然不是所有国家都预计会有超过美国的增长率。经济合作发展组织预计日本和欧洲会比美国发展得还慢：欧元经济体2010年预计增长率0.9%，2011年1.7%；日本2010年预计增长率1.8%，2011年2%。而且，中国、巴西、印度和其他发展中国家的预计快速发展并非只持续一到两年。因为这些国家低龄化，生产率快速发展和相对较低的金融危机负债，使得它们的快速发展会持续10年或更多。显而易见的解决方案你要怎样才能避免犯过去十年一而再，再而三犯的错误呢？你应该逐渐地增加海外投资的比重，尤其是世界上发展最快的经济体的股票的比重，使得你的投资构成接近世界资本市场的构成。你会遇到很多障碍。在过去的五年内我已经努力这样做了，但还是没有完成。让我来讲讲我经验中遇到的困难，以及我是怎样克服这些困难的。障碍一：貌似我已错失了一轮良机。新华富时中国25指数（iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25）基金今年（到11月18日为止）的增长率是55%，而去年是103%。摩根士丹利资本国际巴西指数（iShares MSCI Brazil Index）ETF今年（到11月18日为止）的增长率是120%，而去年是97%。解答一：你要知道比赛才刚开始。现在不投资中国或是巴西就像是19世纪1875年的投资者不投资美国，因为他认为他错过了南北战争后的繁荣期。调整和萧条确实不可避免。我们也不能忘记摩根士丹利资本国际巴西指数ETF在2008年曾下跌54%。但是长期持有带来的长期收益会消弭入市时间不当带来的损失。障碍二：谁真的了解中国太阳能公司或是印尼手机运营商或是印度银行？我只听说过麦当劳、通用电气和苹果。我出门就能见到他们的店铺。我买他们的商品。当我需要他们的信息时，我可从标准普尔或是我的网上经纪人或是互联网得到信息。不过你去试试能不能得到足够多的关于印尼Telkom公司的信息？解答二：慢慢来。你不需要成为一个通晓这些公司的专家才能投资它们。现在有很多发展迅速、积极投资、跟随一国指数的共同基金和ETF。买摩根士丹利资本国际巴西指数就是一种很好的投资巴西的方式。拥有了它-你可以继续研究这个指数投资的股票-就是你开始了解这些单个公司的开始。有些时候-比如巴西-你可以挑选一系列代表同一个新兴市场里不同部门的ETF。比如，在我的Jubak精选组合(Jubaks Picks portfolio)里，巴西小盘股（Market Vectors Brazil Small Cap）ETF代表巴西国内消费品经济体。（想了解更多的话，请参考我在JubakP的博客文章九月原始购买（“original buy in September”）。我的精选组合里30%的股票是海外股票，而且我还打算增加这一比例。）障碍三：我感觉所有人都在追逐相同的一小撮股票和相同的两三个市场。我怕我刚好是给先前那批聪明人接棒的傻瓜。解答三：意识到新兴市场的崛起秩序。如果说中国是下一个美国，印度是下一个中国，巴西是下一个印度（哈！），那哪个国家是下一个巴西？我觉得是印尼。这个国家现在在重复着巴西15年前的路径。现在已经有了一个印尼市场(Market Vectors Indonesia)ETF，但是它出现才一年不到。另一个新兴市场是土耳其。摩根士丹利资本国际土耳其(iShares MSCI Turkey)ETF2008年的时候就有了。想投资印尼和土耳其，你还可以购买旧封闭式基金，比如土耳其投资（TKF）或印尼基金（IF）。最后，对很多新兴市场，主导电信公司往往占据很大的市场份额，是很好的个股投资。比如印尼的Telkom，和土耳其的Turkcel Iletisim。我的投资精选在2010年会选入一只或是两只都买。当你扩张投资组合时采取缓慢而稳定的步骤最好。毕竟，这会是一个新的十年。在世界投资展会（The World MoneyShow）上和Jubak面对面Jim Jubak将会是来年2月3-6日在佛罗里达奥兰多举办的世界投资展会上的众多投资专家之一。他将会就投资者当前面临的问题作演说和讨论以帮助投资者面对这个挑战性的时刻。门票对Jubak杂志的读者免费。请登录世界投资展会网站获得更多信息。后记：文章发表的时候，Jim Jubak拥有文中列举的下列基金和公司的份额：摩根士丹利资本国际巴西指数(iShares MSCI Brazil），巴西小盘股（Market Vectors Brazil Small Cap），中国马修斯基金（ Matthews China），印尼Telkom公司（Telkom Indonesia）和土耳其Turkcel Iletisim公司(Turkcel Iletisim）。Jim Jubak一直撰写Jubak杂志，并且从1997年开始在MSN Money上跟踪评估他的Jubak精选投资组合。他是新书Jubak精选的作者，也是“Jubak精选”博客的作者。他还是MoneyS市场部的资深编辑。Another lost decade for investors?Since 1999, the S&P 500 has been a loser, and the next 10 years could be just as grim. But with new strategies, you can position yourself well for the decade to come.Related content: stocks, China, Brazil, Jim Jubak, ETFBy Jim JubakThe past 10 years have been a lost decade for many investors.If you had invested $10,000 in the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($INX) in October 1999, a decade later you would be looking at a loss of more than $900. Lock your money up in stocks for 10 years and lose 1% a year? Its not supposed to work that way.So what about the next 10 years? It might be just as grim for many investors, who are still sitting on portfolios that are likely to make the next decade as unrewarding as the last.But it doesnt have to be that way.Lets rewind to 1999 and imagine that instead of putting all your money into an S&P 500 fund you had invested in China - say, by buying into Matthews China (MCHFX). Instead of a 1% annual loss, you would have seen an average annual compounded return of 18.17% for each of the next 10 years.Of course, few people recognized way back then that China would be the investment story of the decade. Lets say that instead you had simply bought into a mutual fund that invested broadly in emerging markets, such as the T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock Fund (PRMSX). Your average annual compounded return for the 10-year period would have been 12.06%.Ready to have a good cry? If you had invested $10,000 in the S&P 500, as many people did, you would have been left with just $9,090.52 after 10 years. A $10,000 investment in T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets would have grown to $31,225.27. And a $10,000 investment in Matthews China would have grown to $53,097.29. And you know whats even worse? Ten years ago, the conventional wisdom preached diversifying a stock portfolio by putting a hunk of money into overseas markets and a piece of that into emerging markets. Simply following the prevailing common wisdom 10 years ago and putting 10% of your money into emerging stock markets would have turned your 1% annual loss on a 100% S&P 500 portfolio into a small gain, leaving you with $10,357.53. Thats a not-so-hot 0.35% average annual compounded return.But a gain is always better than a loss, and getting a $1,267 swing to the good on a $10,000 investment just from making one easy-as-falling-off-a-log asset-allocation decision is a pretty decent return.Anybody who doesnt think $1,267 is real money is welcome to send it to me.A question of balanceYou cant go back in time and redo your underexposure to overseas stocks, in general, and emerging-markets stocks, in particular, but you can try not to make the same mistake in the next 10 years.All the evidence, though, is that U.S. investors are about to do it to themselves again.The U.S. share of the global stock market is falling as other countries build larger economies and deeper capital markets. In 2004, U.S. capital markets accounted for 53% of the value of all shares in the world that were free to trade, according to Standard & Poors. (Many shares in markets such as China and India are locked up under government control and arent free to trade.) By 2007, that percentage was down to 44%, and by 2008 it had fallen to 41%.Asset allocation by U.S. investors hasnt kept pace with that change. Depending on what group of investors you measure, U.S. investors have somewhere between 2% and 20% of their equity portfolios in overseas stocks. Among 401k investors, about 12% of their stock portfolios are in overseas stocks.If you simply look at the makeup of the worlds equity markets, U.S. investors are heavily overweighted in U.S. stocks and seriously underweighted in foreign stocks.The rise of developing nationsThat might not be so devastating to the portfolios of U.S. investors if the U.S. economy were projected to outperform the economies of the rest of the world. But its not. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, projects that the U.S. economy will grow 2.5% in 2010 and 2.8% in 2011. China, in comparison, is projected to grow 10.2% in 2010 and 9.3% in 2011. For India, forecasts read 7.3% growth in 2010 and 7.6% growth in 2011. For Brazil, 4.8% growth in 2010 and 4.5% growth in 2011.But not all the world is projected to grow faster than the United States. Japan and Europe will lag the U.S. economy, according to the OECD. The euro-zone economies are expected to grow just 0.9% in 2010 and 1.7% in 2011. In Japan, 1.8% in 2010 and 2% in 2011.The outperformance in China, Brazil, India and the rest of the developing world isnt projected as a one- or two-year thing either. It should last a decade or more, powered by younger populations, faster-growing productivity and lower post-financial-crisis debt burdens in comparison with their developed-market counterparts.A no-brainer solution?What you should do to avoid a repeat of the past lost decade is obvious, although it undoubtedly feels extremely daunting.You should gradually work to increase your allocation toward overseas stocks, with an emphasis on the equities of the worlds fastest-growing economies, toward something like the actual weighting of global capital markets.There are lots of reasons that feels hard. Ive been working for the past five years or so in my own portfolio to achieve an allocation like that, and Im not there yet. Let me tell you from experience why it feels so hard, and Ill tell you about the strategies Im using to get past those difficulties.Obstacle No. 1: It feels like Ive missed the boat. The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI, news, msgs) exchange-traded fund is up 55% this year (as of Nov. 18) and 103% in the past year. The iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ, news, msgs) ETF is up 120% in 2009 (as of Nov. 18) and 97% in the past year.Solution No. 1: Remind yourself that its early in the ballgame. Deciding not to invest in China or Brazil now is like a 19th-century investor saying he doesnt want to buy into the future of the United States in 1875 because he missed the post-Civil War boom. Wait for corrections and busts. The iShares Brazil ETF was down 54% in 2008, lets not forget. And realize that a long enough holding period and a strong enough performance will wipe out a lot of timing mistakes.Obstacle No. 2: Who knows anything about Chinese solar companies or Indonesian cell phone operators or Indian banks? McDonalds (MCD, news, msgs) and General Electric (GE, news, msgs) and Apple (AAPL, news, msgs) are names I know. I can go out and visit a store. I buy their products. And when I need information, I can get it from Standard & Poors or my online broker or on the Internet. But just try to find decent information on Telkom Indonesia (TLK, news, msgs).Solution No. 2: Take it slow. You dont have to become an expert on any of these companies to invest in them, thanks to the growth of actively managed mutual funds and ETFs that follow single-country indexes. Buying iShares MSCI Brazil is a great way to add Brazil to your portfolio. Owning it will - if you poke around in the lists of the funds holdings you can find online - give you an entry point into learning more about individual companies.In some cases - and Brazil is one - youve even got a choice of ETFs that will give you an exposure to different pieces of an emerging market. For example, in my Jubaks Picks portfolio, I own the Market Vectors Brazil Small Cap (BRF, news, msgs) ETF to get exposure to more of the domestic consumer economy. (For more on that buy, see my blog post on my original buy in September at JubakP. About 30% of my Jubaks Picks portfolio is now in true overseas stocks, and I plan to increase that percentage over time.)Obstacle No. 3: I feel like everybody is chasing the same handful of stocks and the same two or three markets. Im worried that Im buying just in time to be the fool of last resort so that the early, smart money can sell.Solution No. 3: Recognize that emerging markets are a constantly changing new-world pecking order. If China is the next United States and India is the next China and Brazil is the next India (whew!), then whos the next Brazil? At the moment, Id say Indonesia. The country shows signs of moving down the same path that Brazil started down 15 years ago. There is already an ETF, Market Vectors Indonesia (IDX, news, msgs), but its less than a year old. Another emerging economy to watch is Turkeys. The iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR, news, msgs) ETF goes all the way back to 2008. In the case of both Indonesia and Turkey, you can also buy an older closed-end mutual fund, such as Turkish Investment (TKF) or Indonesia F