竞争市场中产品组合管理博弈模型(英文).ppt

Agametheory basedmodelforproductportfoliomanagementinacompetitivemarket A Sadeghi M ZandiehExpertSystemswithApplications 2010 Structure IntroductionLiteraturereviewDescriptionofthePPMproblemProblemformulationExampleConclusionsandfuturework 1 Introduction Consumers industrialmanagers andsalesandmarketingpeople alldemandproductsthatimprovetheirlifestylesortogainanedgeoverthecompetition So productportfoliosareinterestingformanypeople Butunlimitedproductvarietyisnotawaytobesuccessful therehastobeanoptimum ItistrueformostcompaniesthattheParetoruleapplies 80 ofthesalesand orpro tscomefrom20 oftheproducts Itisevidentthatasingleproductcannot ful llthemanufacturerneedsandontheotherhand fordiversitythereexistslimitation Intoday shighlycompetitiveenvironment determininganoptimalproductportfolioisveryimportantforthesurvivalofa rm Optimalproductportfoliohasreceivedconsiderableattention becausetheratesoffailureofnewproductportfolioandtheirassociatedlossesareveryhigh Thewholeproductcomponentinformation 产品构建信息 engineering portfoliodecision 工程组合决策 isverycrucialfortheprogressofa rm becauseitisverycostlyanddifficulttochange Thekeyquestionsare whatthebestproductportfoliois andhowmanufacturercan ndit Productportfoliomanagement PPM isageneralbusinessconceptthatanalyzetheproductionability 生产能力 andmarketpotential simultaneously andthendeterminethebestsetofproductstooffer PPMisdevelopedtodirectaproductanditsdiversity includingnotonlyattributes 属性 levels andprice s butalsoanalysisresults environmentalrequirements 环保需求 manufacturingprocedures 生产流程 productperformanceinformation 产品性能信息 andetc ThereforePPMhasbeenclassifiedasacombinatorialoptimizationproblem Eachcompanystrivesfortheoptimalityofitsproductofferingsthroughvariouscombinationsofproducts ThePPMproblemmaydevelopfromtwoperspectives I Forattracttheopinionofcustomers intargetmarkets II Forreducethemanufactureengineeringcosts Firstistheproblemofmarketingmanagers andsecondistheproblemofproducer Whenbothofthemcomposewitheachotherasreflecttoutilityofcostumersandengineeringcosts thisproblembecomestomisslinkbetweensaleandproductionchain JiaoandZhang 2005 considerthecustomer engineeringinteractioninproductportfolioplanning whichaimstocreateproductfamily speci cations 产品族 系列规格 foratargetmarketsegment andproposedamaximizingsurplussharemodel 最大剩余份额模型 Incompetitiveenvironment wedetermineourproductportfoliowithregardtoproductsthatofferbycompetitors whilethecompetitorsmanagetheirproductportfoliosinregardtoourproducts Gametheorycanbeusedtomodelthisproblem Theproposedmodelconstructsproductportfolio basedoncustomer engineeringinteractionmodelinproductportfolioplanningwhichisdevelopedbyJiaoandZhang PresentpaperextendspreviousworksinPPMwithregardtocustomer engineeringconcernsandcompetitiveenvironment Itisnotforanyspecificproduct anditcanbeappliedtoadiversityofproductsorservices objective developagametheory basedmodelasaprocedureof ndingoptimalproductportfolio 2 Literaturereview APPMisde nedasadecisionmakingthatoptimizessomecriteria suchasmarketshare ThemaincontributionofthemostresearchesinPPMissummarizedinfollowingissues 1 Generatingdesignalternativesviamulti objectiveoptimization 通过多目标优化生成设计方案 2 Accountingforuncertaintyandcompetitionwhenestimatingtheachievementofbusinessgoals 3 Applyingmeta heuristicalgorithms 元启发式算法 tosolveacombinatorialproblemduringtheproductlinedesign ThedevelopmentofalgorithmsHeuristic identifyproductpro leproductlinedesign algorithmsimprovedheuristicalgorithmsgeneticalgorithms Thedevelopmentofmodels1 JiaoandZhangproposedamodeltoaddresstheproductportfolioplanningproblem itconsiderscustomerpreferences choiceprobabilitiesand platformbasedproductcosting Also ageneticalgorithmprocedureisapplied 2 AiyoshiandMakiproposedagameproblemundertheconstraintsofallocationofproductandmarketsharesimultaneously Theirresearchisconsideredseveralmanufacturersinoligopolymarket 寡头垄断市场 Thisproposedmodel ontheonehandhadthecompetitivecircumstance butontheotherhand didnothasdetailssuchaslargevarietyofcustomers preferences customer engineeringconcerns etc 3 modelinthispaperconsidersbothdetailsandcompetitivecircumstance 3 DescriptionofthePPMproblem Consideringthe rmcapabilitiestoproduceproducts asetofproductportfolioshavebeenidenti ed Eachproducthascertaindesirabilitybetweencustomers Morespeci cally weconsiderascenarioinwhichasetofproducts havebeenidenti ed giventhatthemanufacturer m hasthecapabilities bothdesignandproduction toproducealltheseproducts Aproductportfolio isasetconsistingofsomeselectedproduct Combinedwiththeproducts asetofproductportfoliosarecreated 相关参数 Forexample ifmanufacturermcanproduce3product 7productportfolioareavailable 7 Everyproduct isassociatedwithcertainengineeringcosts denotedas Therearemultiplemarketsegments S s1 sg sG eachcontaininghomogeneouscustomers withade nitesize Qg Thecustomer engineeringinteractionis embodiedinthedecisionsassociatedwithcustomers choicesofdifferentproducts Variouscustomerpreferencesondiverseproductsarerepresentedbyrespectiveutilities utilityofthegthsegmentforthenthproductofmthmanufacturer Productdemandsormarketshares marketshareofthegthsegmentforthenthproductofmthmanufacturer aredescribedbytheprobabilitiesofcustomers choosingproducts Customerschooseaproductbasedonthesurplus buyerrule Theyhavetheoptionofnotbuyinganyproductsorbuyingcompetitors products Weassumethatcompetitorsrespondtothemanufacturer smoves meaningthat thecompetitionreactbyintroducingnewproducts 4 Problemformulation ThepresentpaperconsidersamarketwithGsegments S s1 sg sG and2manufacturersthateachofthemcanofferNmproducts andJmproductportfolios Thisgivesthebimatrix game 双矩阵对策 problemwith2playersandJmstrategyforeach m 1or2 Thepayoffforeachplayerwillofcoursedependonthecombinedactionsofbothplayers Apayoffmatrixshowswhatpayoffeachplayerwillreceiveat theoutcomeofthegame Forplayerm m 1or2 thepayoffmatrix Fm isasfollows Insummary aJ1 J2 bimatrixgameisplayedbytwoplayers player1andplayer2 Player1hasafinitesetandplayer2hasa nitesetofpurestrategies Thepayoffmatrixes f1 ofplayer1andofplayer2aredenotedbyF1andF2respectively Thisgameisdenotedby F1 F2 Nowthegame F1 F2 isplayedasfollows Players1and2choose independentofeachother astrategy andrespectively Herecanbeseenastheprobabilitythatplayer1 2 chooseshis throw thcolumn The expected payoffforplayer1isx1F1x2andtheexpectedpayofftoplayer2isx1F2x2 Astrategypair isanequilibriumforthegame F1 F2 if Thesetofallequilibriaforthegame F1 F2 isdenotedbyE F1 F2 ByatheoremofNashthissetisnon emptyforallbimatrix games Nash 1950 Somemethodsforcalculatingpayoffmatrixarrays arethere seeSection2 WeusedthefunctionthatproposedbyJiaoandZhang 2005 Thisfunctionisbasedoncustomer engineeringinteractionmodelinPPM Thisisasfollows Eq 3 istheexpectedsharedsurplusbyofferingaproductportfolio consistingofproducts tocustomersegments sg eachwithsizeQg Themarketpotentials Qg canbegivenexogenouslyattheoutsetorestimatedthroughavarietyoftechniquesbasedonhistoricaldataortestmarkets Theutilityofthegthsegmentforthenthproductofmthmanufacturerisdenotedas Thismodelassumesthatcustomersonlychoosea productwithapositivesurplus Thechoiceprobability thatacustomerorasegment sg choosesaproduct withNcomcompetingproducts isdefinedasfollows whereuisascalingparameter 尺度参数 Accordingtomatrix 1 andEq 3 letthefunctionbedefinedby 5 Example Inthissection asimpleexampletousetheproposedmodelispresented Forsimplicity weconsideramarketwithtwocompetitor M 2 andfourdifferentproducts Nm 4 foreach Feasiblestrategies isdefinedasfollows 产品组合数 24 1 15 Threesegmentsareidentified i e s1 s2 ands3 Q1 Q2 andQ3areassumed0 2 0 3and0 5 respectively Table1showstheutilitiesofthreesegmentstoeveryproduct andcostofeach Also scalingparameter u issupposed0 8 Therefore 2payoffmatrixesF1andF2formedformanufacturer1and2 separately Thisgameandobtaineddatafromexpectedsharedsurplusvalues Eq 5 aresummarizedinFig 1 返回 TheoptimalresultforeachmanufacturerisderivedfromtheNashequilibriumpointofthegame Astrategypairisanaloneequilibriumforthegame Therelatedpayoffpairis 0 74 0 83 6 Conclusionsandfuturework Thispaperproposedagametheory basedmodelthatisusedtomaximizetheexpectedsharedsurplusforaproductportfoliomanaged Theproductportfoliomanagement PPM isanimportantoptimizationproblemthatincludesthelargesetofconstraintsandcharacte