亚化咨询美国页岩气对中国煤化工影响(之一)--重塑全球.doc

亚化咨询：美国页岩气对中国煤化工影响（之一）-重塑全球甲醇供应格局2014-10-23引言美国自上世纪80年代开展页岩气开发技术攻关，直到本世纪初实现技术突破，2006年以后进入快速发展阶段。2013年美国页岩气产量为2764亿立方米，占美国天然气总产量的40%。EIA预计，2014-2040年间，美国页岩气产量将翻一番，到2040年，页岩气产量占美国天然气产量比重将上升至50%。 页岩气产量增长拉低了美国天然气价格，2012年天然气价格低于3美元/MMBTU（约0.7元人民币/立方米），达到近十年来谷底。此外，页岩气开采的湿气组分如乙烷、丙烷等，可为下游化工业提供丰富廉价的原料。2008-2013年期间，美国页岩气繁荣的同期，一个庞大的煤化工产业也在中国崛起。亚化咨询认为，这两种全球最重要的新型石化路线将不可避免地迎来竞争，并将重塑全球化学品生产和贸易的格局。无论如何，美国页岩气对中国煤化工行业的影响不容小觑。下面我们来探讨美国页岩气对中国煤化工的系列影响。美国页岩气对中国煤化工影响（之一）：重塑全球甲醇供应格局中国是全球最大的甲醇生产和消费国。2013年甲醇产量达2879万吨，占全球甲醇产量的48%；2013年中国甲醇净进口量为409万吨。进口甲醇平均价格达到2006年以来最高值，为386美元/吨。面对不断增长的甲醇需求，中国也在紧锣密鼓的推进本土甲醇新建项目。亚化咨询统计，截至2014年8月，中国拟在建规模10万吨/年以上的甲醇项目69个。预测到2018年底，中国甲醇总产能将超过9000万吨/年。新增甲醇产能主要作为煤制烯烃一体化项目中间产品，大部分不进入市场。此外，已投产的甲醇生产装置也在规划甲醇制烯烃项目。因此，亚化咨询预计，国产商品甲醇供应量增长将有限，未来几年内，中国仍将需要进口甲醇。美国历来是甲醇的进口国，每年进口甲醇量为500万吨左右。而在丰富廉价页岩气资源的驱动下，美国甲醇生产成本大幅降低，新建、扩建及重启了数个甲醇项目。例如梅塞尼斯公司（Methanex）将其位于智利的一个闲置甲醇厂分拆成两个部分搬到美国路易斯安那州的Geismar，重新建起两套产能分别为100万吨/年和90万吨/年的甲醇装置。中国企业也试图利用美国优势资源，直接投资生产甲醇。2014年7月份，山东玉皇化工和吉林康乃尔集团先后宣布拟投资分别18.5亿美元和45亿美元在美国建造年产能分别为300万吨和720万吨的甲醇工厂。假如以上所有项目均能建成投产，则美国新增甲醇产能将超过2500万吨。其中，中国企业在美拟建甲醇产能共达1340万吨/年。资料显示，拟在美国投资建甲醇厂的中国企业并不打算进入美国的甲醇消费市场，而是利用美国廉价的天然气资源生产低成本甲醇并运输至中国，预计这一比例将达80%。过去中国进口甲醇主要来源为伊朗、阿曼、沙特阿拉伯、马来西亚，2013年进口自这四国的甲醇量达371万吨，占甲醇总进口量的76%，而美国出口给中国的甲醇量非常有限。亚化咨询认为，随着美国甲醇产能的释放，今后，从美国进口的甲醇量将会逐渐增加，长期来看，有可能成为主要来源之一。考虑到美国每年对于甲醇衍生品的需求增长缓慢，若减去准备输出至中国的甲醇产能，余下的部分也足以填补美国甲醇供需缺口，届时，过剩的甲醇必将出口，对国际甲醇贸易格局产生一定影响。亚化咨询认为，美国页岩气的繁荣将改变全球的甲醇贸易格局，同时也将和中国的沿海甲醇制烯烃等新型石化产业链融合。我们将在下一节探讨。由亚化咨询与中国化工学会煤化工专委会联合举办的第六届煤制烯烃技术经济研讨会将于2014年11月19-21日在浙江嘉兴召开。亚化咨询专家将从甲烷-甲醇-MTO、丙烷-PDH-丙烯和乙烷-乙烯三条产业链探讨美国页岩气对中国煤制烯烃行业的影响。由于会期临近，如有兴趣参加，请联系高经理114 邮箱ASIACHEM: The U.S. Shale Gas Impacts on Chinas Coal Chemical Industry (1) - To Reshape the Global Pattern of Methanol Supply 2014-10-23Foreword引言forForewordSince 1980s, the United States has developed shale gas exploitation technology research, and achieved the breakthrough in the beginning of this century, and entered the stage of rapid development since 2006. In 2013, the production of the U.S. shale gas reached 276.4 billion Nm3, accounting for 40% of the total output of natural gas. EIA expected that during 2014 to 2040 US shale gas production will be doubled, by 2040, shale gas output will rise to 50% of total US natural gas supply.The growth of shale gas production brings down the price of natural gas in the U.S. In 2012, the gas prices below 3 USD/MMBTU (approximately 0.7 CNY/Nm3), reached bottom in nearly a decade. In addition, the shale gas wet components such as ethane, propane, etc., can be provided for the downstream chemical industry as the abundant and cheap raw materials.During 2008-2013, a large coal chemical industry emerged in China in the same period of the U.S. shale gas boom. ASIACHEM considers that the two innovative petrochemical routes will inevitably face competition, and will reshape the global chemicals production and trade patterns. In any case, the effects of the U.S. shale gas to Chinese coal chemical industry will be significant.Lets discuss the series of U.S shale gas impact on Chinas coal chemical. ASIACHEM: The U.S. Shale Gas Impacts on Chinas Coal Chemical Industry (1) - To Reshape the Global Pattern of Methanol Supply China is the worlds largest methanol production and consumption country. In 2013, the methanol production reached 28.79 Mt, accounting for 48% of global output; in the same year, the methanol net imports was 4.09 Mt. The average price of imported methanol reached 386 USD/t, which was the highest one since 2006.In the face of growing demand for methanol, China is also in full swing to promote domestic methanol new projects. ASIACHEM analyzes that as of August 2014, there are 69 methanol projects proposed to construct in China, which scale more than 100kt/a. ASIACHEM estimates that by the end of 2018, Chinese methanol capacity will exceed 90 Mt/a. New methanol production capacity mainly as intermediate product will integrated to coal to olefin project for captive use, and most of them will not enter the market. In addition, methanol production unit has been put into production are planning the new MTO projects. As a result, ASIACHEM estimates that domestic commercial methanol supply growth will be limited, the next few years, China will still need to import methanol.In the past, the U.S. had always been the methanol importer, with annual imports of 5 million tons. Thanks the abundant and cheap shale gas resources, the production cost of methanol significantly reduce in the U.S. A number of new expanding and restarting methanol projects are in the planning or under construction. As an example, Methanex divided its Chilean methanol plant into two parts and shifted to LA as two plants of 1 Mt/a and 900kt/a capacity respectively.A few Chinese investors also seek the investment opportunities of gas based methanol projects in the U.S. In July 2014, Shandong Yuhuang Chemical and Jilin Cornell group has announced plan to invest USD 1.85bn and USD 4.5bn respectively to build methanol plants with annual production capacity of 3 Mt and 7.2 Mt in the U.S.If all items are completed and put into operation, the U.S. new methanol capacity will reach 25 Mt. Among them, the Chinese enterprises proposed methanol capacity of 13.4 Mt/a. Public information shows that the proposed investment of Chinese companies do not intend to enter the U.S. methanol consumption market, but to use the cheap American natural gas resources to produce low-cost methanol and transport to China, the proportion is expected to 80%.In the past, China imported methanol from Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia as major source. In 2013 China imported 3.71 Mt of methanol from these four countries, accounting for 76% of total methanol import, while was limited for US to export methanol to China. ASIACHEM believes that with the release of US methanol capacity, in the future, the amount of methanol will be imported from the US is likely to increase gradually, in the long run, it may become one of the main sources.Considering the US demand growth for methanol derivatives is slow, if minus the capacity of methanol which planned to output to China, the rest of the US new capacity is enough to fill the gap between supply and demand of methanol, at tha