第2章贸易的动态环境.ppt

2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 1 Chapter2TheDynamicEnvironmentofInternationalTrade 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 2 Introduction Historyofworldtrade Stockmarketcrashof1929 U S gaveuponfreetradeOthercountriesretaliatedandworldtradecollapsedintoaglobaldepressionAfterWorldWarII theU S andtheindustrializednationswantedfreetradeWorldtradeincreased22 foldsince1950GeneralAgreementonTariffsandTrade GATT wasformedin1944tohelpreducetariffs 2 2 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 3 Overview Transitionoftheworldtradefromthe20thtothe21stcenturyBalanceofpaymentsProtectionism LogicandillogicTradebarriersEasingtraderestrictions GATT WTO IMF andtheWorldBankGroupAnti globalizationprotests 2 3 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 4 GlobalPerspectiveTradeBarriers AnInternationalMarketer sMinefield ManycountriestakeadvantageofU S openmarketswhileputtingbarriersinthewayofU S exportsJapan snowskis rice baseballs andbeef France Americanmoviesandsongs Britain taxingofP G sPringlepotatochips TradebarriersnotonlylimithowmuchU S companiescansell theyalsoraisepricesforimportedproductsmuchhigherthantheysellforintheU S SincethebirthoftheWTO WorldTradeOrganization effortshavebeenmadebymanycountriestoreducetradebarriers benefitingtheworldsocially politically andeconomically 2 4 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 5 TheInternationalTradeEnvironment Yesterday scompetitivemarketbattleswerefoughtinwesternEurope Japan andtheUnitedstates nowthesebattleshaveexpandedtoLatinAmerica easternEurope Russia China India Asia andAfrica Thisemergingglobaleconomybringssignificantadvantagestobothmarketersandconsumers MarketersbenefitfromnewmarketsthatgivethemviablebusinessopportunitiesConsumersbenefitfromawidearrayofgoodsatthelowestprices 2 5 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 6 TopTen2009U S TradingPartners billions merchandisetrade Exhibit2 1 2 6 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 7 TwentiethtotheTwenty FirstCentury 1of2 FirstHalfoftheTwentiethCenturyTheDepressionera 1930s betweentwoworldwars WWI 1914 1919 andWWII 1939 1945 CapitalismwaspromotedbytheU S throughtheMarshallPlan EconomicallyrebuildingEuropeandJapanFosteringeconomicgrowthintheunderdevelopedworldInshort theUnitedStateshelpedmaketheworld seconomiesstronger whichenablethemtobuymorefromus 2 7 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 8 TwentiethtotheTwenty FirstCentury 2of2 GATT GeneralAgreementonTariffsandTrade wascreatedin1986byworldleaderstohelpnegotiatereductionsintariffsandothertradebarriers WTO WorldTradeOrganization wascreatedin1995toreinforceGATTrulesandlegislatetradedisputes Lasthalfofthe20thcenturymarredbycompetingapproachestoeconomicdevelopmentbetweentheSocialistMarxistandDemocraticcapitalist 2 8 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 9 WorldTradeandU S Multinationals 1of2 21stcenturyusheredintheeraofnewglobalmarketingopportunities1950s U S companiesbegantoexportandmakesignificantinvestmentsinoverseasmarketingandproductionfacilities1960s U S multinationalcorporations MNCs facedmajorchallengesontwofrontsResistancetodirectinvestmentIncreasingcompetitioninexportmarkets 2 9 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 10 WorldTradeandU S Multinationals 2of2 AmericanMNCswereconfrontedbyaresurgenceofcompetitionfromallovertheworldJapan Germany NIC NewlyIndustrializedCountries Brazil Mexico India SouthKorea Taiwan Singapore HongKong developingcountriessuchasVenezuela Chile BangladeshestablishedSOE State OwnedEnterprises TheU S roleasaneconomicpowerhousewaschallengedontwofronts U S positioninworldtrade seechartonthenextslide U S tradedeficit ashighas 700billionin2007 Lastdecadeofthe20thcenturysawprofoundchangesinthewayworldtradewouldbedoneFreetradezonesdevelopedsuchasNAFTA AFTA andAPEC 2 10 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 11 World s100LargestIndustrialCorporations AnnualRevenues Exhibit2 2 2 11 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 12 BeyondtheFirstDecadeofthe21stCentury 1of2 GrowthoftheU S economysloweddramaticallyinthelastfewyearsespeciallyin2009Economiesofthedevelopedworldexpectedonaveragetogrowannuallyat3 forthenext25years OECD Economiesofthedevelopingworldexpectedonaveragetogrowannuallyat6 forthenext25years OECD Asaresult economicpowerandinfluencewillmoveawayfromindustrializednationstodevelopingnations LatinAmerica Asia EasternEurope andAfrica 2 12 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 13 BeyondtheFirstDecadeofthe21stCentury 2of2 Companiesarelookingforwaystobecomemoreefficient improveproductivity andexpandtheirglobalreachwhilemaintaininganabilitytorespondquicklyanddeliverproductsthatthemarketsdemand Nestle Samsung WhirlpoolSmallercompaniesalsousingnovelapproachestotargetglobalmarketsNocharInc fireretardant BuztronicsInc promotionallapelbuttons 2 13 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 14 BalanceofPayments 1of2 Balanceofpaymentsisdefinedasthesystemofaccountsthatrecordsanation sinternationalfinancetransactions TransactionsrecordedannuallyMustalwaysbeinbalanceArecordofcondition notdeterminantofconditionBalanceofpaymentsincludethreeaccounts Currentaccount exports imports services funds Capitalaccount investmentsandshort termcapital Reservesaccount gold foreignexchange andliabilities 2 14 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 15 BalanceofPayments 2of2 Receipts Payments 2 15 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 16 U S CurrentAccountbyMajorComponents 2009 billions Exhibit2 3 2 16 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 17 U S CurrentAccountBalance ofGDP Exhibit2 4 2 17 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 18 WhatWouldOneU S DollarBuy Exhibit2 4 2 18 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 19 Protectionism Therealityofworldtradeisthatcountriesprotectitsmarketsfromforeigncompaniesbysettinguptariffs quotas andnontariffbarriers Barrierstotradecantakeanyofthefollowingforms Legal tariffsandquotas ExchangePsychological nontariffs Privatemarket 2 19 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 20 ProtectionLogicandIllogic Argumentsforprotectionism ProtectionofinfantindustryProtectionofthehomemarketNeedtokeepmoneyathomeEncouragementofcapitalaccumulationMaintenanceofthestandardoflivingandrealwagesConservationofnaturalresourcesIndustrializationofalow wagenationMaintenanceofemploymentandreductionofunemploymentNationaldefenseIncreaseofbusinesssizeRetaliationandbargaining 2 20 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 21 DoesProtectionismHelp Arecentstudyon21protectedindustriesshowedthatwhilejobsareprotected consumerspaymuchhigherpricesbecauseofprotectionism U S consumerspayabout 70billionperyearinhigherpricesbecauseoftariffsandotherprotectiverestrictions Atthesametime theaveragecosttoconsumersforsavingonejobintheseprotectedindustrieswas 170 000peryear Protectionismispoliticallypopular particularlyduringtimesofdecliningwages and orhighemployment butitrarelyleadstorenewedgrowthinadecliningindustry 2 21 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 22 TradeBarriers TariffsQuotasandImportLicensesVoluntaryExportRestraints VER BoycottsandembargoesMonetarybarriersBlockedcurrencyGovernmentapprovalStandardsAntidumpingpenaltiesDomesticsubsidiesandeconomicstimuli 2 22 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 23 TradeBarriers Tariffsaretaxesimposedbyagovernmentongoodsenteringitsborders Inflationarypressures specialinterests privileges governmentcontrolandpoliticalconsiderationsineconomicmatters andthenumberoftariffs Balance of paymentpositions supplyanddemandpatterns andinternationalrelationsbystartingtradewars Manufacturer ssupplysources choicesavailabletoconsumers andcompetition 2 23 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 24 TradeBarriers QuotasandImportLicensesQuotaisaspecificunitordollarlimitappliedtoaparticulartypeofgood increasespriceofgood Importlicenseslimitsquantitiesonacase by casebasisJapanandforeignrice BananawarsbetweentheUnitedStatesandtheEUVoluntaryExportRestraints VER Oftenusedinthe1980sisanagreementbetweentheimportingcountryandtheexportingcountryforarestrictiononthevolumeofexports Japan sVERonU S automobiles 2 24 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 25 TheGeneralAgreementonTariffsandTrade GATT ShortlyafterWorldWarII theU S and22othercountriessignedGATT 1947 whichpavedthewayforthefirsteffectiveworldwidetariffagreementBasicelementsoftheGATTTradeshallbeconductedonanondiscriminatorybasisProtectionshallbeaffordeddomesticindustriesthroughcustomstariffs notthroughsuchcommercialmeasuresasimportquotasConsultationshallbetheprimarymethodusedtosolveglobaltradeproblemsEliminatinginternationaltradebarriers UruguayRoundTheGeneralAgreementonTradeinServices GATS Trade RelatedInvestmentMeasures TRIMs Trade RelatedaspectsofIntellectualPropertyRights TRIPs 2 25 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 26 GeneralAgreementonTariffsandTrade 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 27 TheWorldTradeOrganization WTO WTOwhichisaninstitution notanagreement wasfoundedin1994 Setsmanyrulesgoverningtradebetweenits148membersProvidesapanelexportstohearandruleontradedisputesbetweenmembersIssuesbindingdecisionsAllmembercountrieswillhaveequalrepresentationMembercountrieshaveopentheirmarketsandtobeboundbytherulesofthemultilateraltradingsystemU S ratificationconcernsPossiblelossofsovereigntyoveritstradelawstoWTOLackofvetopowerRoleU S wouldassumewhenaconflictarisesoveranindividualstate slawsthatmightbechallengedbyaWTOmemberChinabecamememberoftheWTO 2001 Vietnam 2007 2 27 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 28 SkirtingthespiritofGATTandWTO LoopholesChinareducedtariffswhileatthesametimeincreasednumberandscopeoftechnicalstandardsandinspectionrequirementsImposingantidumpingdutiesNegotiatingbilateraltradeagreementsMayleadtomultinationalconcessionsNotnecessarilyconsistentwithWTOgoalsandaspirations 2 28 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 29 自由贸易和公平贸易 FREETRADEEqualaccesstocountrymarkets对各国市场进入平等Non discriminationininternationalprocurement国际采购中非歧视Respectforpropertyrights尊重产权Transparencyinlegalsystems法律体系透明Eliminationoftradebarriers消除贸易壁垒 FAIRTRADEEnhancinglocalcitizen swellbeing livingwages safeandhealthyworkconditions 提高本地居民的福利 生活工资 健康 工作条件等 Localscanremainindependentfromexternalgovernmentsandprivateorganizationsindevelopingtheirlivelihoods 本地在发展民生中保持独立 和外国政府和私人组织区别开来 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 30 InternationalMonetaryFund IMF Becauseofinadequatemoneyreservesandunstablecurrencies theIMFwascreatedtoassistnationsinbecomingandremainingeconomicallyviableObjectivesoftheIMFStabilizationofforeignexchangeratesEstablishmentoffreelyconvertiblecurrenciestofacilitatetheexpansionandbalancedgrowthofinternationaltrade 2 30 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 31 WorldBankGroup Bypromotingsustainablegrowthandinvestmentinpeople theWorldBankGroupisaninstitutioncreatedin1944toreducepovertyandimprovestandardoflivingTheWorldBankhasfiveinstitutionswhichperformthefollowingservices LendingmoneytothegovernmentsofdevelopingcountriesProvidingassistancetogovernmentsfordevelopmentalprojectstothepoorestdevelopingcountries percapitalincomesof 925orless LendingdirectlytotheprivatesectorProvidinginvestorswithguaranteesagainst noncommercialrisk Promotingincreasedflowsofinternationalinvestment 2 31 2020 1 11 IM chj chapter2 32 Anti globalizationProtests Theunintend