价格形态百科-矩形(2).doc

32、Rectangle BottomsRESULTS SNAPSHOTUpside BreakoutsAppearancePrices trend down to the formation then oscillate between two horizontal trendlines before breaking out upward.Reversal Or ConsolidationLong-term (over 6 months) bullish reversalFailure Rate0%Average Rise46%, with the most likely rise about 20%Premature Breakouts12%Volume TrendUpwardThrowbacks61%Percentage meeting predicted price target93%Surprising FindingsActual breakout is opposite that shown by premature breakouts 75% of timeSee alsoRectangle TopsUpside BreakoutsAppearancePrices trend down to the formation then oscillate between two horizontal trendlines before breaking out downward.Reversal Or ConsolidationShort-term (up to 3 months) bearish consolidationFailure Rate4%Average Decline19%, with most likely decline between 10% and 15%Premature Breakouts17%Volume TrendDownwardPullbacks70%Percentage meeting predicted price target65%Surprising FindingsActual breakout is opposite that shown by premature breakouts 75% of time.See alsoRectangle TopsLike other formations without a classic definition of a top or bottom, I decided to give rectangles a definition by separating them based on the price trend approaching the chart pattern. If the trend is downward, then the formation is a bottom. If the trend is up, then the formation classifies as a top. The distinction is perhaps arbitrary, but it does help with searching for reasons to a given breakout direction.矩形顶和矩形底的区别在于之前的价格趋势。上涨趋势之后的矩形称为矩形顶，下跌之后矩形称为矩形底。This chapter concerns itself with rectangle bottoms. Bottoms have two breakout directions: up and down (no surprise, right?). The Results Snapshot lists the more important statistics. The failure rate for rectangles with upside breakouts is 0%. Do not get too excited as the sample size is small (41 formations). I do not believe that upside breakouts never fail. They do, it just did not happen on my shift. One thing is clear, though: They are reliable. The average rise is 46%, above the usual 40% gain for bullish formations. The most likely rise at 20% is about what you would expect. With such a large gain, it is no surprise that the formation meets its price target 93% of the time. I consider anything above 80% to be reliable.底部形态有两个突破方向，向上和向下。矩形底向上突破的失败率是0，不要太激动，我的样本空间太小，只有41一个样本，不过至少说明矩形底的向上突破是很可靠的。并且向上突破的涨幅高达46%，并且价格目标达成93%，相当好！Rectangles with downside breakouts perform almost as well. They have a 4% failure rate. That is very good as I consider reliable anything below 20%. The average loss is 19%, just shy of the usual 20% for bearish formations. Pullbacks score well, appearing 70% of the time. That score is high enough on which to base a trading tactic. After a downside breakout, short the stock then add to the position once a pullback returns to the formation and begins moving down again (always wait for the downside move because prices might continue climbing).向下突破也表现良好，失败率4%，平均跌幅19%符合一般水平。70%概率回调，回调后再次下跌做空是个不错的策略(一定等再次下跌发生，不然价格可能继续涨)。A surprising finding is that a premature breakout is opposite the genuine breakout direction 75% of the time. We explore this further in the Statistics section.矩形底中，过早突破75%概率与真正突破方向相反。TourFigure 32.1 shows an example of a rectangle bottom. The short-term price trend is upward (for 3 days anyway) leading to the formation, but I discard it. I look at the intermediate-term trend, which is down, and view the decline a few days before the formation start as an overshoot. This commonly happens just before prices oscillate between the support and resistance zones.图32.1，尽管是三天的上涨之后进入矩形，但也不要因为这三天就归入矩形顶，要看中期趋势-下跌趋势。The chart pattern forms after prices loop around during the October 1994 to January 1995 period and retrace some of their gains. Prices drop quickly from the support zone at 57 to 52 H, then they bump up against the top of the rectangle resistance zone at 56 and slink back to find support at 54. Prices bounce off the two zones like a Ping-Pong ball ricocheting off players paddles. Up and down, up and down prices boomerang on volume that is rising. Soon, one player sneezes and the ball shoots past him. Prices move up, pausing only a day before moving higher on heavy volume. Prices quickly climb and enter another congestion zone; this time it is a descending triangle with an upside breakout.Identification GuidelinesTable 32.1 shows a few identification guidelines for rectangle bottoms. While reviewing the guidelines, consider how they apply to the rectangle shown in Figure 32.2. The price trend leading to the rectangle bottom is downward, which is what separates rectangle bottoms from their top brothers. I usually use the intermediate-term price trend when considering whether prices are trending up or down. This is subjective and varies from formation to formation. As shown in Figure 32.1, I ignore the few days just before the formation starts, choosing to use the prevailing longer trend instead. Prices bounce between two levels, setting up a support zone at the bottom and a line of resistance at thetop. If you connect the minor highs with a trendline, it should be horizontal or nearly so. A similar line drawn below the bottoms forms a parallel trendline. The two trendlines bound the price action. Occasionally, one of the lines will not be exactly horizontal or will break near the end, which is fine as long as the slope is not too steep to disturb the overall picture.使用中期趋势辨别矩形顶底。两条趋势线要至少近似水平At least two touches of each trendline are required for a valid rectangle. Figure 32.2 shows three alternating touches. Touches need not alternate, but you should have at least two clearly defined minor highs and two minor lows coming close to or touching the trendlines. Except for the brief punch through the top in early December, prices stay within the two boundary lines until breaking out downward on light volume in mid-January.每条趋势线至少需要两个触点。图32.2中各3个触点。上下触点交替出现，至少需要高点低点各清晰地两个。The volume pattern is somewhat random but it does seem to track the breakout direction. For Figure 32.1, the volume pattern is up and so is the breakout. Figure 32.2 shows high volume at the start of the formation and light volume just before the downside breakout. I caution against trying to predict the breakout direction by looking at the volume trend. Although it does track the breakout direction more often than not, the chances of it going with the breakout direction is just above picking the correct side of a coin toss.成交量趋势跟随价格突破方向。价格向上突破，成交上涨趋势；价格向下突破，成交下跌趋势。但是，完全根据成交走势买入不比掷硬币强多少。Focus on FailuresFigure 32.3 shows a rectangle bottom in a downtrend. Since most rectangle bottoms act as consolidations of the prevailing trend, the breakout is expected downward. Prices drop away from the support line at 54% and 2 days later pull back to the formation. Prices move horizontally for several days before ultimately climbing above the top of the rectangle. When prices pierce the top rectangle trendline and close above it, I consider the downtrend to be over.Since the initial decline moves just 3% down, the formation is a failure. Formations that do not move in the breakout direction by more than 5% are what I call 5% failures. Although this formation ultimately moves lower, it does so only after closing above the formation top. If you sold this formation short expecting a price decline, you may be stopped out for a loss. Certainly, your worry would climb along with prices. Failures do occur, as Figure 32.3 illustrates, but rectangles are reliable. Out of 95 formations, just two are failures. That observation conveniently brings us to the Statistics section.Trading TacticsTable 32.5 lists trading tactics for rectangle bottoms. The first tactic is to determine the predicted price target using the measure rule. The rule first finds die height of the formation by subtracting the lowest low from the highest high. In essence, just subtract the value of the two trendlines from each other. Figure 32.6 shows an example of this. The top trendline is at a value of 127/i6 and the bottom one is at 11. The difference, 17/16, is the formation height. Add the height to the value of the top trendline to get the upside breakout target (137/g) and subtract it from the value of the lower trendline to get the downside breakout target (99/i6). Some analysts suggest measuring the length (not the height) of the rectangle, flipping it vertically, and adding or subtracting it from the top or bottom trendline to get the maximum price move (for upside and downside breakouts, respectively). This sounds a bit far-fetched, but it is a handy guideline. Use it with caution as I have not verified how well it works. 测量规则：矩形高度是最小价格目标，矩形长度是最大价格目标。Since you cannot predict the breakout direction with complete accuracy, wait for the breakout before investing. Place the trade after prices close outside the rectangle trendlines, then trade with the trend. If the formation is tall enough, consider placing an intraformation trade near the two trendlines. Short at the top when prices begin descending and cover when they rebound off the bottom trendline (do not cover too soon as prices may continue moving down). Go long at the bottom and sell at the top trendline when prices begin falling. Again, wait for a direction change as prices may stage an upside breakout.Throwbacks and pullbacks allow investors another opportunity to place a trade, add to their position, or get out with a smaller loss. Take advantage of it but wait for prices to complete their throwback or pullback before placing a trade or adding to a position. The reason is that prices may continue in the adverse direction instead of returning to the trendline and rebounding. Sometimes, rectangle bottoms form as the corrective phase of a measured move formation. See Measured Move Down for information on how to take advantage of the situation. Occasionally a rectangle will mark the end of a substantial decline and appear like a flat bottom before prices rise.Sample TradeFigure 32.6 shows a paper trade I made recently. The rectangle bottom appeared after prices dropped from a high of 205/g in October 1997. The drop was a painful one but it did not occur all at once. Prices dropped quite rapidly to 15 where they moved horizontally for 8 months. Then the second half of the decline took over and prices reached a low of about 11.Prices bounced off the low several times, like a boy taking his first steps on a trampoline. They were tentative, shaky, with not much enthusiasm. Then in mid-October 1998, prices touched the bottom trendline and moved quickly across the formation to tie the September high at 123/s. A few more oscillations and the two trendline boundaries became apparent.If you look at the overall picture, you might think that prices would continue downa downside breakout (following the downward trend). I could not tell which direction prices would go, so I decided to wait for the breakout. If the formation acted as a consolidation, then the breakout would be downward. However, with a two-step downtrend from the high at 205/8, this reminded me of a measured move down with a really long corrective phase. I thought it might break out upward. If the rectangle was taller, I would try an intraformation trade (buy at 11/s, sell at 123/8, then reverse).In early December, prices pierced the top trendline and closed above it; the rectangle staged an upside breakout. I noticed the breakout the day after it happened and called in my trade. I received a fill at 13, midrange for the day. I estimated that a support zone had formed at 11 %, so I placed a stop at 1 l5/s. Prices had stopped at this level just before the chart pattern formed and again just before the December breakout. A better stop would have been just below the lower rectangle trendline because both trendlines act as support or resistance zones. However, I did not want to take such a large loss (15%+). Even paper trades go wrong and that is what happened here. A day after buying the stock, prices returned to the rectangle formation to do more work. Prices slowly, agonizingly, moved lower until hitting my stop in late December. I took a paper loss of 11%.It turns out that I placed a trade on a premature breakout. The statistics suggest that after an upside premature breakout, the genuine breakout direction should be down. Well, that did not work out either. Prices shot out the top of the formation. As I write this, they are hovering about 13, my purchase price last time. I suspect prices might throw back to the formation again. If that happens and they start moving up again, perhaps I will buy the stock for real. 33、Rectangle TopsRESULTS SNAPSHOTUpside BreakoutsAppearancePrices up down to the formation then oscillate between two horizontal trendlines before breaking out upward.Reversal Or ConsolidationLong-term (over 6 months) bullish consolidationFailure Rate2%Average Rise52%, with the most likely rise between 20% and 30%Premature Breakouts11%Volume TrendDownwardThrowbacks53%Percentage meeting predicted price target91%Surprising FindingsThe actual breakout is opposite that shown bypremature breakouts 65% of the time.See alsoRectangle BottomsDownside BreakoutsAppearancePrices trend up to the formation then oscillate between two horizontal trendlines before breaking out downward.Reversal Or ConsolidationShort-term (up to 3 months) bearish reversalFailure Rate0%Average Decline20%, with most likely decline being 20%Premature Breakouts23%Volume TrendDownwardPullbacks55%Percentage meeting predicted price target77%Surprising FindingsThe actual breakout is opposite that shown bypremature breakouts 65% of the time.See alsoRectangle BottomsRectangle tops with upside breakouts fail 2% of the time. The average rise is an astounding 52% with a likely gain between 20% and 30%. These numbers are excellent. With such a large gain, it is no surprise that the measure rule works out well with 91% of the formations hitting their price targets.Downside breakouts tell a similar tale, but one that is not quite as rosy. Downside breakouts have a 0% failure rate not because they are excellent performers, but because I did not find any that failed. I am sure there are rectangle tops with downside breakouts that fail to move down by less than 5%. The average loss is 20% with a strong likely decline of 20%, too. This is unusual but it suggests there are few large declines to skew the average. A glance at the frequency distribution shows that the assumption is correct. The percentage of formations with downside breakouts meeting or exceeding the price target is 77%, just below the 80% threshold that I consider reliable.The only surprising finding deals with premature breakouts. When a premature breakout occurs in a rectangle top, the probabilities suggest that the genuine breakout occurs on the opposite side. This relationship is not as strong as for rectangle bottoms but it comes close.TourFigure 33.1 shows an example of a rectangle top. Prices begin their upward trek in June 1992 at 14 and reach the rectangle in May of the following year. Then prices consolidate for over a month, bouncing between overhead resistance at 245/s and support at 235/s. A trendline drawn across the minor highs is horizontal as is the one connecting the minor lows. There are a number of touches of both trendlines suggesting a reliable formation. At the start, prices overshoot both up and down by peeking outside the two trendlines. This is not a problem because it occurs too early in the chart pattern before it can be recognized as a rectangle.The volume pattern begins in the typical manner receding. However, about two-thirds of the way to the breakout the pattern changes. Volume gets heavier as if building pressure for the upcoming release. Then, mysteriously, volume subsides as prices move horizontally just below the top trendline for over a week. When prices pierce the top trendline, volume picks up but not remarkably so. Volume just builds on the expanding trend that is developing since prices began sliding along the trendline top.Prices climb away cleanly. There is a slight, 3-day dip in late June when it looks as if prices are trying to throw back to the formation top, but the buying pressure is just too strong. The retrace stops and prices turn around and continue moving up.Why do rectangles form? A rectangle chart pattern is a struggle between the haves and the have-nots. Those that own the stock but want to sell have identified a price at which they are willing to part with their shares. When the price reaches that level, they sell, forcing the price down. When prices fall, they quit dumping the stock. On the other side is another group of investors who want to acquire the stock. They place buy orders at what they perceive to be the fair value. When prices fall to their target price, the buy orders overwhelm supply and the price rises. If this struggle goes on long enough, prices bounce between one extreme and the other. Over time, you can draw a horizontal trendline along the peaks and another along the valleys as a rectangle formation takes shape. Eventually, one of the sides runs out of ammunition. If the people selling their shares run out first, buying demand overwhelms supply and the price pierces the top trendline. If the buyers spend all their money and back away from the table, prices drop through the bottom of the rectangle. In either case, the shares continue in the breakout direction because of growing demand (the price moves upward) or increasing supply (the price tumbles).Identification GuidelinesTable 33.1 shows identification guidelines for rectangle tops. Over the short to intermediate term, the price trend should be leading up to the formation. This upward trend is