国养猪业的整合发展-变革和挑战.pdf

Consolidation in the U S Pig Industry Changes and Challenges 美国养猪业的整合发展美国养猪业的整合发展 变革和挑战 变革和挑战 Donald E Orr Jr President JBS United Inc Chairman Elect American Feed Industry Association 当奥博士 当奥博士 美国联合营养公司 总裁美国联合营养公司 总裁 美国饲料工业协会 主席 当选 美国饲料工业协会 主席 当选 PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Seven Pillars of Hog Production 养猪生产的七大支柱养猪生产的七大支柱 Access to affordable feed grains 有充足的优价饲料资源 Infrastructure costs基础设施成本 Regulatory requirements法规要求 Access to and cost of capital资金来源和成本 Labor cost and availability劳动力成本和来 源 Management expertise and practice 管理经验和手段 Large domestic market pork consumption 当地的消费市场 RaboBank 2005 PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Largest Pork Producers 2007美国养猪公司排名美国养猪公司排名 3 124 700TotalTop 1 20 Producers 63 000Austin MNHormel Foods12 70 000Springdale ARTyson Foods11 85 000Goldsboro NCMaxwell Foods Inc 10 95 000Audubon IAAMVC Management9 107 000Minneapolis MNCargill8 115 000Carlyle ILThe Maschhoff s Inc 7 135 600Pipestone MNThe Pipestone System6 142 000Clinton NCPrestige Farms5 150 000Iowa Falls IAIowa Select Farms4 213 600Shawnee Mission KSSeaboard Foods3 403 700St Joseph MOTriumph Foods2 1 227 000Smithfield VASmithfield Foods1 SowsHeadquartersName of OperationRank PDF created with pdfFactory trial version 59 19 9 4 8 1 2003 65 21 6 3 5 1 2006 5137179750 13 10 12 13 20 23 1991 13 12 12 12 17 17 1994 16 10 10 10 12 5 1997 12 9 10 11 19 32 1988 71 2 52 3 73 5 2 Less than 1 105 10 1810 50 2000 Firm size thousand head mktd annually Share of Annual U S Hog Slaughter by Year and Size Category 美国不同规模的养猪公司年生猪宰杀比例美国不同规模的养猪公司年生猪宰杀比例 U S Pork Industry Structure Study 2006 University of Missouri Iowa State University Pork magazine Pig Improvement Company National Pork Board PDF created with pdfFactory trial version 24 149 2003 27 164 2006 20189500 1361275750 500 200019971994 Firm Size thousand head mktd annually Number of Large Firms Producing Hogs 美国大型猪场数量美国大型猪场数量 U S Pork Industry Structure Study 2006 University of Missouri Iowa State University Pork magazine Pig Improvement Company National Pork Board PDF created with pdfFactory trial version How Firms Plan to Expand 2006 09 Percent of U S Hogs Owned by All Firms Reporting 猪场扩张展望猪场扩张展望 10 Contract for more finishing space 11 Purchase existing facilities 50 Construct new facilities 34 Market more through existing facilities 28 Do not plan to market more hogs Percent of Hogs U S Pork Industry Structure Study 2006 University of Missouri Iowa State University Pork magazine Pig Improvement Company National Pork Board PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits 1996 2008美国依阿华州养猪盈利美国依阿华州养猪盈利 Iowa State University Calculations 70 50 30 10 10 30 50 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Per Head Source John Lawrence Iowa State University PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Cost of Slaughter Hog Production美国生猪成本美国生猪成本 Iowa State University Calculations 1990 2008 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Marketing Month Per Live Cwt Source John Lawrence Iowa State University PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Changes in live weight in Midwest USA herds over 20 years 美国上市生猪体重变化美国上市生猪体重变化 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245 250 255 260 265 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Weight LB Weight PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Changes in whole herd feed efficiency in Midwest USA herds over 20 years 美国猪群饲料报酬变化美国猪群饲料报酬变化 2 9 3 3 1 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 5 3 6 3 7 3 8 3 9 4 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Wlole Herd Feed Gain HFC Feed gain PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Feed gain changes adjusted for live weight 饲料报酬以体重调整后的变化饲料报酬以体重调整后的变化 2 00 2 20 2 40 2 60 2 80 3 00 3 20 3 40 3 60 3 80 4 00 19851990199520002005 PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Throughput Trends in US Agri Metrics 上市体重变化上市体重变化 243 246 248 250 253 255 257 258 262 264 240 0 245 0 250 0 255 0 260 0 265 0 270 0 96979899 00 01 02 03 04 05 MKt Wt lb PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Throughput Trends in US Agri Metrics 每头母猪年生产小猪头数每头母猪年生产小猪头数 20 8 20 9 21 1 21 2 21 3 21 5 21 6 21 8 21 9 22 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 96979899 00 01 02 03 04 05 PSY PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Throughput Trends in US Agri Metrics 每头母猪年生产猪肉量每头母猪年生产猪肉量 4658 4719 4806 4868 4928 5015 5076 5141 5223 5283 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 96979899 00 01 02 03 04 05 Lb Sow Yr PDF created with pdfFactory trial version U S Pork Industry Structure Study 2006 University of Missouri Iowa State University Pork magazine Pig Improvement Company National Pork Board Production Information 2006 Percent of All U S Hogs Affected二 六年猪场生产情况二 六年猪场生产情况 29 Facilities are wean finish 35 Grain raised by own firm 94 Hogs are raised indoors 64 Feeding is split sex 32 Replacement gilts are purchased 54 Feed is self prepared PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Grain Market Factors谷物市场因素谷物市场因素 Energy Prices 能源价格能源价格 Biofuels World Supply世界供应世界供应 Grain carryovers declining Growing World Demand世界需求增长世界需求增长 Weak Dollar美元疲软美元疲软 Encourages exports Inputs more expensive Feed Demand饲料需求饲料需求 Fund Trading资金需求资金需求 Market Volatility市场浮动市场浮动 Risk premiums Inflation通胀通胀 Credit Crunch信用 资金 限制信用 资金 限制 Acreage Balance Expected Production种植面积种植面积 生产供应生产供应 Weather气候变化气候变化 PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Use of AI in the USA Swine Industry 人工授精技术的使用人工授精技术的使用 1990 only 5 of the sow were artificially inseminated 2000 approximately 60 were bred with AI 2007 than 90 bred with AI Typical dose is 75 80 ml 2 5 3 billion sperm cells dose Singleton WL 2001 Theriogenology 56 1305 1310 PDF created with pdfFactory trial version 14 23 11 14 5 13 Part owned stud 33 71 63 70 69 77 Purchased 25 3 5 10 1 3 Firm Size thousand head mktd 16 5 10 26 10 50 86 11 Collected by firm 500 50 500 Where Firms Acquired Semen猪猪精来精来源源 percent of firms responding in size category U S Pork Industry Structure Study 2006 University of Missouri Iowa State University Pork magazine Pig Improvement Company National Pork Board PDF created with pdfFactory trial version 42 4 10 9 5 4 Own packing plant 5 56 21 19 17 10 Group contract 89 38 35 16 16 9 Negotiated contract 7 65 3 5 4 82 1 3 Firm Size thousand head mktd 7 67 5 10 4 57 10 50 5 1 Other 32 28 Load by load 500 50 500 How Firms Marketed Slaughter Hogs 2006 生猪生猪是怎样销售是怎样销售的的 percent of firms in size category U S Pork Industry Structure Study 2006 University of Missouri Iowa State University Pork magazine Pig Improvement Company National Pork Board PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Percent of Hogs Sold on Carcass Merit Basis依胴体价值定价依胴体价值定价 Firm Size thousand head mktd annually U S Pork Industry Structure Study 2006 University of Missouri Iowa State University Pork magazine Pig Improvement Company National Pork Board 63 8080 76 97 99 81 93 85 89 95 98 80 91 90 92 98 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 33 55 1010 5050 500500 Percent 2000 2003 2006 PDF created with pdfFactory trial version 45 22 9 14 1997 55 41 14 3 2006 Finished by contractorsFarrowed by contractorsFirm Size thousand head mktd 66 64 55 6839 40 Total 40 39 33 4026 22 500 14 12 13 13 8 8 50 500 5 2000 10 1997 15 2003 9 2000 12 13 1 50 20062003 Percent of U S Hogs Raised by Firms That Are Contractors 公司公司由提由提供合同供合同进行进行 合 合约约 养猪的比例 养猪的比例 1997 2006 U S Pork Industry Structure Study 2006 University of Missouri Iowa State University Pork magazine Pig Improvement Company National Pork Board PDF created with pdfFactory trial version 30 16 7 8 1997 20 15 4 1 2006 FinishedFarrowed Firm Size thousand head mktd 46 41 34 23 22 17 Total 25 25 21 17 13 11 500 14 11 10 5 7 4 50 500 2 2000 1 1997 7 2003 3 2000 7 5 1 50 20062003 Percent of U S Hogs Raised under Contract 养猪养猪户户依依照照合同合同来来养猪的比例养猪的比例1997 2006 U S Pork Industry Structure Study 2006 University of Missouri Iowa State University Pork magazine Pig Improvement Company National Pork Board PDF created with pdfFactory trial version What Do You See as the Greatest Challenges to the U S Pork Industry over the Next 5 Years 未来五年最大挑战未来五年最大挑战 U S Pork Industry Structure Study 2006 University of Missouri Iowa State University Pork magazine Pig Improvement Company National Pork Board 2 82 42 14 0Finding training retaining employees 2 82 73 02 7Establishing consumer trust confidence 2 82 82 53 0Alternative feeds profitability environ impact 2 61 92 92 9Input purchasing成本成本 2 42 52 02 8Animal care well being animal activism动动物物福福利利 2 32 02 62 4Maintaining desired productivity生产生产力力 2 22 02 02 7Compliance issues法法规规 2 12 02 12 3Disease health management疾病疾病 Firm Size 1 000 hd mktd Rank 1 extremely serious 6 not serious 3 9 3 8 3 5 3 0 1 50 5 1 3 8 3 6 3 4 50 500 4 1 4 1 3 9 3 0 500 4 4 3 9 3 7 3 1 All Finding higher value pork alternatives niche mkts Health effect of prod on employees neighbors Facilities management maintenance Reorganizing farm business PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Unprecedented Times前所未有的境遇前所未有的境遇 120 barrel oil At least 4 1 billion bushels of 08 09 corn crop used for ethanol 33 of projected production Corn carryout of 0 5 Very low maybe negative without any weather issues What happens if there is even a modest drought Greenwood 2008 PDF created with pdfFactory trial version At least 7 more market hogs in 2008功过于求 5 50 corn bu玉米价格 340 soybean meal ton豆饼价格 280 ton feed cost finishing ration 饲料成本 Abundant finishing spaces open available育肥栏过剩 US Breeding herd has been growing a very modest 1 2 annually 繁殖猪群增长 Canada paying producers 225 to eliminate sows from production food chain 加拿大淘汰母猪补助计划 Greenwood 2008 Unprecedented Times前所未有前所未有的的境遇境遇 PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Signature Farms联合公司养猪生产部联合公司养猪生产部 1 Feed costs increased dramatically 2 Sale weights were heavy feed efficiencies biased upwards as a result 3 Questions issues a What is the impact of altering feed composition on profitability b What is optimal most profitable sale weight How is that weight achieved STRATAPLAN PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Putting the STRATAPLAN Model to Work联合养猪生产模式联合养猪生产模式 Impact of reducing diet cost removing fat removing Paylean adding DDGS Reduced both diet costs pig performance 4 42 pig Optimal most profitable sale weight ingredient costs at 6 bu corn 258 270 lbs live Net effect of achieving weight additional 2 3 pig Achieved through a combination of selling ahead reducing total days in barn STRATAPLAN PDF created with pdfFactory trial version Financial Impact对回报的影响对回报的影响 Feed composition costs 4 42 pig Annualized 1 800 000