我国外汇的影响因素.doc

一、影响外汇储备减少的主要因素1经常项目逆差在正常减少范围之内统计数据显示，2012年第二季度，我国经常项目顺差537亿美元，其中，按照国际收支统计口径计算，货物贸易顺差909亿美元，服务贸易逆差222亿美元，收益逆差156亿美元，经常转移顺差6亿美元。资本和金融项目逆差412亿美元，其中，直接投资净流入411亿美元，证券投资净流入111亿美元，其他投资净流出944亿美元。2012年上半年，我国国际收支经常项目顺差772亿美元，经常项目顺差占同期国内生产总值（GDP）的比例为2.1%；资本和金融项目顺差149亿美元；国际储备资产增加629亿美元。经常项目下的数据主要由进出口情况决定，我国具有相对较高的储蓄率，显著的贸易优势，如改革开放与稳定的营商环境、完整的制造产业链等，这使得我国保持经常项目顺差的能力在中期相对较为稳定。因此，在当前全球经济疲弱的背景下，外贸顺差自2008年以来持续收窄，2012年4-6月经常项目实现顺差537亿美元，应该说，二季度外汇储备与历史同期相比虽然有所减少，但基本与当前的进出口贸易形势相吻合。2资本和金融项目逆差是导致外汇储备减少的真正原因其实，真正导致资本和金融项目二季度出现逆差的主要是“其他投资”项下的逆差944亿美元，其中，其他投资的资产方逆差高达1214亿美元。其他投资的资产方主要有三个子项：贸易信贷、贷款以及货币和存款。2012年第二季度，贸易信贷、贷款以及货币和存款三个项目因资产增加而分别流出资金336亿美元、251亿美元和639亿美元。由此可见，金融项目逆差的主要原因。具体来看，进出口商因贸易而形成的应收款净增加336亿美元（贸易信贷），中国的金融机构对非居民的贷款增加251亿美元（贷款资产），中国的金融机构乃至企业和个人在境外银行的存款增加639亿美元（货币和存款）。境外贷款和存款增加的一个很重要原因是，2012年以来，国内银行外汇存款增长迅速，上半年累计增加1301亿美元。而同时，国内外汇贷款仅增加319亿美元，远低于外汇存款增长，这意味着银行体系只能将吸收的大部分外汇存款转向对外贷款、投资和拆借，反映为银行境外资产增加。在经常项目实现顺差的情况下，如果不是家庭和企业增加持有外汇资产，就是央行增加持有外汇资产，后者的表现就是大家熟悉的外汇储备和外汇占款的增加。但央行持有的外汇储备同样是要流出到境外持有资产，比如购买美国国债。从已公布的数据看，直接投资在第二季度实现顺差411亿美元，但顺差规模较去年同期有较明显的下降，同比下降14%。与今年第一季度489亿美元的顺差规模相比，环比下降16%。证券投资项下的主要交易包括以QDII方式的对外投资和以境外上市及QFII等方式吸收的境外投资，因受到严格的审批管制，所以一般而言差额不大。第二季度证券投资实现顺差111亿美元，除此前的境外证券投资回流外，还包括对境外人民币持有者开放银行间货币市场后非居民人民币债券投资流入30多亿美元，以及境内企业海外上市及发债筹资及QFII项下资金净流入合计35亿美元等。虽然外汇占款持续下降，呼吁增加流动性的声音不断增强，但今年央行采取的货币政策并不能称得上宽松。数据显示，2012年以来，银行外汇存款增长迅速，上半年累计增加1301亿美元，同比多增994亿美元。其中，个人外汇存款仅增加21亿美元，因此，外汇存款部分主要是企业外汇存款的增加。企业外汇存款增加的原因，主要是企业对人民币升值预期降低，贬值预期增加，企业调整财务运作所致，企业开始逐步扭转“资产本币化、负债外币化”的倾向。因此，从这个角度来看，虽然外汇占款在今年前八个月出现明显少增，但是少增的部分正在以外汇存款的形式存在于金融体系内，一旦人民币升值预期重启，这部分外汇存款再次转为外汇占款，则可能再次形成对流动性的冲击。因此，可以推测，在外汇占款已连续两个月出现负增长，市场对降准的预期非常强烈的情形下，央行仍然迟迟不肯降准，正是出于对这部分资金的考虑和担忧。1.国家外债余额、汇率变动是中国外汇储备量增长的决定因素。通过回归模型分析可知，国家外债余额是影响中国外汇储备的主要原因。通常，一国外债规模越大，短期外债越多，还本付息的压力就越大，为维持清偿力，需要的国际储备就越多。随着国际资本的迅猛流入，中国外债余额也急剧膨胀，并成为中国外汇储备增长的主要来源之一。自1984年以来，中国外债规模不断扩大，到2003年底，中国外债余额折合1936.3亿美元，比2002年年末增加222.7亿美元，增长了12.9%。短期外债快速增多，投机性外汇资本的流入，对外汇储备增长起了推波助澜的作用。外债的增加，必然导致中国外汇储备相应地增加。但是负债与持有外汇储备都需要成本，因此需要权衡他们各自所发挥的作用与持有的成本。影响中国外汇储备规模尤其是外汇储备需求量的另一个重要因素是汇率水平的变动。自1994年外汇管理体制改革以来，中国实行“以市场供求为基础的，单一的、有管理的浮动汇率制度”。人民币汇率是有管理的，这意味着必要时中央银行可以入市对人民币汇率进行适当干预，进行逆市场操作：当人民币面临升值压力时，中央银行就通过投放人民币而买入外汇；当人民币面临贬值压力时，中央银行就可以运用外汇储备在市场上卖出外汇，买入人民币。一般地，中央银行在外汇市场上干预的目的在于减少汇率大幅度波动给实体经济发展带来的干扰，而非改变汇率的长期走势。2.我们通过相关分析得出：进口规模、进出口贸易差额的变化、国际收支经常账户差额、实际利用外资额与外汇储备的相关系数分别是0.981、0.732、0.850、0.754。显然，进口规模、进出口贸易差额的变化、实际利用外资额以及国际收支经常账户差额与外汇储备具有很高的相关性，从而间接影响外汇储备的适度规模。进口规模的大小，直接影响占用的外汇资金数量。一国占用的外汇资金越多，发生逆差的可能性及数额往往也大，因此需要保持较多的外汇储备。例如，从1994年到1997年，中国出口收入中平均约20%转化为外汇储备，在此4年间，出口收入中转化为外汇储备的份额要比出口收入高于其趋势线的比例更大，即相对于出口收入的增长而言，外汇储备是加速增长的。进口额仅仅表示资金的一种单向流动，而进出口贸易差额则反映了资金的双向运动及对储备的实际需求。中国每年都存在贸易差额，但每年进出口贸易差额的方向和大小往往不一致，即有一个波动的幅度问题。波动幅度越大，对外汇储备的需求就越大；反之，外汇储备需求就越小。从国际收支经常账户差额角度分析，由于全球经济联系日益密切，而国际金融市场波动不断增大，判断一国外汇储备规模是否适度的标准，重要的一点是看这个国家的经济是否实现了内外均衡。1980年代以来，中国的国际收支虽然在总量上保持了基本平衡，但在经常项目的收支方面仍存在着不稳定因素，因此只能求助于资本项目和动用外汇储备进行综合调节。从利用外资角度分析，实际利用外资是外汇储备变动的结构性因素。对于中国这样一个发展中国家，积极引进外资，特别是外商直接投资，能在一定程度上缓解资金短缺的瓶颈制约，促进经济增长。但是如果外商直接投资回报率较高，那么每年就会有大量投资利润汇出(据统计资料显示，2003年外商来华投资的平均利润率为10%以上)，这将使预计外汇储备量大打折扣。由此可见，利用外资是影响外汇储备的一个重要因素。One, the main factors that affect the reduction of foreign exchange reserves1 the current account deficit is within the normal range of reduction.Statistics show that in the second quarter of 2012, Chinas current account surplus of $53700000000, of which, according to the international balance of payments statistics, goods trade surplus of $22200000000, the service trade deficit of $90900000000, the deficit of the current transfer surplus of $600000000. Capital and financial account deficit of $41200000000, of which, the net inflow of direct investment of $41100000000, the net inflow of securities investment 11100000000 U.S. dollars, other investment net outflow of $94400000000. In the first half of 2012, Chinas international balance of payments current account surplus of $77200000000, the current account surplus is 2.1% of GDP (GDP), capital and financial account surplus of international reserve assets increased by $62900000000.Under current account data are mainly determined by the import and export situation, China has a relatively high savings rate, significant trade advantages, such as the reform and opening up and stable business environment, complete manufacturing industry chain, which makes China to maintain the ability to maintain current account surplus in the medium term is relatively stable. Therefore, in the current global economic weakness, the foreign trade surplus since 2008 continued to narrow, in 2012 4-6 month current account surplus of $53700000000, it should be said that the two quarter of foreign exchange reserves and historical period compared to the same period, although it has been reduced, but the basic and the current situation of trade and export.2 capital and financial account deficit is the real reason for the reduction of foreign exchange reservesIn fact, the real cause of capital and financial projects in the two quarter of the deficit is mainly the other investment in the deficit of $94400000000, of which, the other side of the investment assets of $121400000000. Other assets of the investment mainly have three sub items: trade credit, loans and deposits. In the second quarter of 2012, trade credits, loans and deposits increased by $33600000000, $25100000000 and $three, respectively. This shows that the main reason for the financial project deficit. Specifically, the import and export business, due to the formation of a net increase of $33600000000 (trade credit), Chinas financial institutions to increase loans to non residents of $25100000000 (loan assets), Chinas financial institutions and businesses and individuals in foreign bank deposits increased by $63900000000 (money and deposits). An important reason for the increase in foreign loans and deposits is that since 2012, the domestic banks foreign exchange deposits increased rapidly, the first half increased by $130100000000. Meanwhile, the domestic foreign exchange loans increased by only $31900000000, far lower than the growth of foreign exchange deposits, which means that the banking system can only absorb most of the foreign exchange deposits to foreign loans, investment and lending, reflecting the increase in foreign assets of banks. Under the current account surplus, if not households and firms have increased their holdings of foreign assets, is the central bank to increase holdings of foreign assets, the latter is we are familiar with the foreign exchange and foreign exchange reserves increased. But the central banks foreign exchange reserves held by the same is to flow out to hold assets, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds.From the data has been published, the direct investment in the second quarter to achieve a surplus of $41100000000, but the size of the surplus is more than a year earlier, down 14%. Compared with the size of the first quarter of $48900000000, the chain fell 16%. The main transactions under the securities investment include the foreign investment in the form of QDII, which is absorbed by foreign investment and foreign investment, and is subject to strict examination and approval, so the difference is not big in general. Securities investment in the second quarter to achieve a surplus of 11100000000 U.S. dollars, in addition to the previous overseas securities investment return, but also to the holders of foreign currency markets after the opening of the RMB yuan bond investment inflows of about 3000000000 U.S. dollars, and domestic enterprises overseas listing and issue bonds to raise funds and QFII funds under the net inflow of $3500000000, etc.Although the foreign exchange continued to decline, calling for increased mobility of the voice continued to increase, but take this year, the central banks monetary policy and can not be called loose. Data show that since 2012, the banks foreign exchange deposits grew rapidly in the first half increased by $130100000000, an increase of $99400000000. Among them, the personal foreign exchange deposits increased by only $2100000000, therefore, foreign exchange deposits is mainly an increase in foreign exchange deposits. The reason for the increase in foreign exchange deposits is that enterprises are expected to reduce the appreciation of the RMB, the depreciation is expected to increase, enterprises adjust the financial operation due to enterprises began to gradually reverse the trend of asset devaluation, foreign currency, foreign currency.Therefore, from this point of view, although the foreign exchange in the first eight months appear significantly less increase, but a small increase in the is in the for