unit 5 Take a lesson from the economists 翻译.doc

Unit 5 Take a lesson from the economists Economics is the dismal science: so say the large number of people who heap scorn on the intellectural merits of the discipline. Much of the criticism comes from pure or proper scientist physicists, chemists and biologists. Now, economics certainly has its failings. But the general way in which economists approach and describe the world, and how they convey their message about it to others , carries lessons which pure scientists should learn from. 经济学是一门消沉的科学：大量对这门学科的理性优点长期不屑的人这么说。大部分批评来自于“纯粹”或者是“适当”的科学家们物理学家们，化学学家们，生物学家们。现在，经济学的确有他的缺点，但是经济学家们接触和描述世界的一般方法和他们传递消息给其他人的方式，是纯粹科学家们需要学习的。Economics has inexactitudes and vagueness built into it. The general lack of reliable data about past events makes virtually impossible the accurate measurement of even the most basic economic variables, such as the total volume of output in a country, or the path of consumer spending, or inflation. 经济学的建立存在不精确性和含糊性。关于过去事件的可靠数据的缺少，使得即便是最基础的经济学变量的精确测量几乎不可能，比如说一个国家的出口总量，消费者的消费情况图，和通货膨胀。 If economists are hazy about what is going right now, they are even less sure about the future. Due to the general measurement difficulties, as well as unforeseen events such as wars or natural disasters, economic forecasts are almost always wrong, sometimes by wide margins. As for economic theories, they change almost according to fashion, with economists allowed to move effortlessly between them, sometimes holding several contrasting points of view at the same time. 如果经济学家们对现在的情况不明确，他们对未来的情况就更不确定。由于总体测量的困难性，以及战争和自然灾害等的不可预见性，经济学的预测通常是错误的，有时甚至是错的非常离谱的。由于经济学理论通常会跟随潮流改变，经济学家们只能无助地在他们之间移动，有时还会同时持有几种有对照性的观点。 The contrast with scientists could not be starker. The tools of an economists trade are muddy data, loose theorising and a shambling approach to causality which says . that a set of interactions between A, B and C MIGHT lead to a conclusion Z (and only via a roundabout route which takes in P, Q and R as well) . Scientists have a harder-edged way of looking at the world, requiring a set of rigid theories and data based on painstaking experimental observation.经济学家们和科学家们的对比再完全不过了。经济学家们交易的工具是混乱的数据，不严谨的理论和接近因果关系的摇摆不定，这些说明A,B和C之间一系列的交换可能会导致得出Z的结论。（并且只有通过包含P，Q和R的迂回路径）。科学家们有看待世界的严谨方式，要求一系列严格的基于艰苦科学实验的理论。 But the economists have been able to use the vagueness with which their subject is afflicted to their advantage. By concentrating on broad conclusions to problems and communicating these in terms that can be understood by the special interest groups they are dealing with, economists have had a generally good record in assimilating themselves into positions of influence. Scientists have done rather less well by concentrating on the nature of problems rather than on the conclusions or policy prescripitons. 但是经济学家们已经能够将使他们饱受艰苦的模糊性变为优势。通过着眼于问题的广泛结论，和以深处其中的特殊群体所能理解的方式交流，经济学家们在融合他们进入有影响力的位置上有着很好的记录。科学家们着眼于问题本质而不是结论和政策导向。 All this explains why, in British at least, economists as a body of people have had much more success in purely professional terms over the past 20 years than scientists. 这些解释了，在过去的20年里，至少在英国，为什么作为人类的一部分经济学家们相比于科学家们，在纯科学领域有更多的成就。 Take the posts in the Britain government of chief scientific adviser and chief economist. In the first position, Bill Stewart has a thin power base, playing a marginal role in providing scientific advice to dozens of government departments. The second job takes the incumbent to the centre of the governments decision-making machinery in the Treasury, and into involvement with many of the most important decisions ministers make about how Britain should operate. 以英国政府首席科学顾问和首席经济学家的岗位为例。在第一个职位上，Bill Stewart权力有限，仅在给诸多政府部门提供科学建议时起主导作用。而第二个职位却能将在职者带入到隶属于财政部的政府决策机构的中心，以及接触到许多做出英国如何运作等的重要决定的部长们。 In industry, top scientists working for big firms such as ICI or IBM certainly are in strong positions. But the ability of such people to influence events is put into the shade by the power of economists working for the big international banks and investment houses in the City of London. The broad judgments of these people about global economic patterns, transmitted by numerous direct and indirect ways, form a key component of thousands of decisions made at company level at the grass roots of industry.在工业方面，那些为诸如ICI和IBM等大公司工作的顶尖科学家们的确处在重要的位置上。但是他们对一些事件的影响能力相比于为在纽约为国际银行和投资事务所的经济学家们则相形见绌。经济学家们对于全球经济模式的总体判断，通过直接或非直接方式的传递，成为了在工业底层公司层面上所做决定的关键组成部分。 How did economists get to be in this position - and what can scientists learn from them?Despite the difficulty in arriving at hard answers to many of the problems in economics, people in the discipline have shown an ability to skim over the inexactitudes, to come up with a general view of the world in terms that are relevant and make sense to those outside the profession.经济学家们是如何到达这个地位的科学家们又该从他们身上学习什么？不管找出在经济学方面诸多问题答案的困难性，在这一学科领域的人们已经展示出略去不精确性，来以一种切题并且能被职外人士所理解的方式获得对世界的整体看法。 As an example, consider a single topic of relevance to a wide body of peoplethe flow of capital around the world. Finding out about where all the worlds money is going (and why and how and at what rate) is of obvious importance to anyone interested in investment decisions and the competitive advantages of specific nations over others. 举个例子，考虑一个单纯的与大多数人切切相关的话题在世界范围内的资金流动。找出世界资金流向（和为什么以及如何和以什么比率）对每一个对投资感兴趣的个人和特定的想要获得竞争优势的国家来说都是很重要的。 Every few miuntes, banks and other institutions are switching hundreds of millions of dollars from country to country in a pattern that is far from clear. The goal on each transaction is to move money into a region where the returns are higher and so chalk up a profit. Working out what is going on in this vast exercise, and the important influences that are at play, is vital to understanding a host of issues involving the buildup of wealth in the modern world. 每隔几分钟，银行和一些其他机构都在以一种不明确的模式从一个国家向另一个国家进行数以百万计的转账。每一场交易的目的都是将钱转入可以获得更高回报和收益的地区。对于现代社会诸如财富积累问题的理解最重要的是找出在巨大的运作当中它的实际操作和他所起的影响。 The pure science way of approaching this problem would be to attempt to collect data from all the banks and regulatory authorities participating in money transfer, and thence gain a sum of all the capital flows - from which appropriate conclusions could be drawn. The economist would recognise that the task of measuring and collecting the data is well nigh impossible.纯粹科学家多这一问题的解决方式是从所有涉及到金钱转移的银行和管理当局那收集数据，因此获得资金流向的总量，并通过他们得出合理的结论。经济学家通常认为测量和收集数据的工作是不可能的。 Using the fairly paltry statistics that are available, and some judicious averaging out and guesswork, the economist would gain a rough idea about the shape of the worlds money flow. From this would flow a convincing argument about the policy dimension to the problem - such as how the balance of interest rates between several countries made a specific course of action, as related to funds transfer, either less or more appropriate - in a relevant way. The scientific way is to throw everything at the problem and be less concerned at the prescription that follows; with the economist the balance is the other way round. 通过使用已有的极少的数据和一些明智的猜测，经济学家可以获得世界资金流动形式的粗略看法。关于这一问题的政策维度就可以以切题的方式得出令人信服的观点，这种观点或多或少是合适的，比如说在涉及资金转换时，如何采取措施平衡各个国家间的汇率这个问题。科学家是把所有跟这个问题有关的事情都考虑到，但是经济学家则正好相反。 What can pure scientists gain from this study of the dismal science? When necessary, they should reject exact approach, take a broader view, study conclusions and how to implement them and above all learn better communications skills. There are some signs of such things happening. There is a general move in certain sections of academia and industry towards the concept of the multidisciplinary scientist, one who can take in to