(英文)罗兰贝格给荷兰石油做的SWOT分析.ppt

SectorSketchandSWOTAnalysisoftheDutchOilSector FinalPresentation DutchMinistryofEconomicAffairsOilDivision TheHague 3rdFebruary1999 AconflictappearstobeemergingbetweenthetraditionalDutcheconomicstrengthsandmorerecentenvironmentalconcerns Dutcheconomicprosperity Oilindustryfocussedonexports Foundedontrading MotorofRotterdamtradingstrength Dutchenvironment Legitimateenvironmentalconcerns Highpopulationdensitylow lying vulnerabletoGlobalwarming GlobalwarmingCongestionNoise Exportindustrymustbeinternationallycompetitivetosurvive Toughenvironmentalstance Conflict Contents Page A ExtractsfromSectorSketchB FeedbackfromoilandchemicalcompanyinterviewsC SWOTAnalysisC 1 StrengthsC 2 WeaknessesC 3 OpportunitiesC 4 ThreatsD Recommendations 47111217232631 A ExtractsfromSectorSketch TheDutchoilindustryhastraditionallybeenstrongandinternationallyorientated Only15 oftotaloilsupplydestinedforhomemarketAccountsfor9 ofEUrefiningcapacityKeysynergieswithandsupplytoDutchchemicalsindustryBeneluxchemicalclusterissecondlargestinEurope Rotterdam world sleadingport for30yearsRoad rail inlandwaterwayandpipelineconnectionstomanymajormarkets MajoroiltradingmarketintheEUtimezoneandoneofthebig3globally Rotterdam Houston Singapore Eachsectorintheoilindustryfacesimportantissuesaffectingitscompetitiveposition Oilrefining IncreasingcostsofenvironmentalcomplianceMergers allianceschangethecompetitivesceneOvercapacityandlowreturns Storage SupportstheinternationalbusinessFostersindependenttradersOvercapacityandlowreturns Trading StrongroleofrefiningcompaniesDependentoncriticalmassofRotterdammarket Bunkering ImportantfueloiloutletforrefinersRefinersbecomingdominant Pipelines PipelinesandwaterwayskeytoRotterdamlogisticaladvantageDominatedbyprivateorconsortiumownedpipelines Chemicals ImportantsynergieswithoilsectorSectorenteringdownturnLong termgrowthpotential B Feedbackfromoilandchemicalcompanyinterviews Environmentalandclean upregulationswerecentraltoviewsexpressedbymostinterviewees RoleoftheNetherlands Decisionmakingbodies Landrelease Currentsituation Industryviewpoint Alternativeapproach Goesaheadofcompetingcountriesonenvironmentalissues Thisunderminescompetitivepositionofoilandchemicalindustries LeadbyinfluencingEUconsensusratherthanbyexample SignificantregionalandnationalvariationonenvironmentalregulationsCompetitiontobegreener Variationpreventstheexistenceofa levelplayingfield Placeenvironmentaldecisionmakingandimplementationinthehandsofonebody Clean upcostsareaformidableexitbarrier Landcanbereleasedifeconomicallyviable Costsofclean upshouldbebalancedagainstcostoflandreclamation However thegovernment swillingnesstodiscussandreachconsensuswasappreciated Allintervieweesrecognisedthe WorldClass infrastructureofRotterdam althoughtherearethreemajorcontentiousissues Portfees Commoncarrierpipeline Maasvlakte2 Currentsituation Industryviewpoint Alternativeapproach Harbourduesbasedontonnageratherthanservicesused RotterdamismoreexpensivethanAntwerp LeHavreorHamburg Theoilindustry subsidises thecontainerindustry Basechargesmoreonservicesthanontonnagebasis Nocommon carrierpipelineexists Maybeeconomicallyviable Considercommoncarrierwhereextraflexibilityneeded butcompensateownersofpipelinesforinvestmentandrisk Positivediscussionlikely newlandreclamationathighcost ExtralandwillfavourchemicalsectorTheoilindustrydoesnotrequireextraland EnsureproperfundingforMaasvlakte2 Noburdenonoilindustry Pressureforrationalisationislikelytocoincidewithtimingofinvestmenttomeetfuturefuelspecifications Overcapacity Futurefuelspecifications Currentsituation Industryviewpoint Despiterecentclosures thereremainsupto15 overcapacity Asmanyas13EUrefineriesneedtocloseIssuecomplicatedfurtherbyrecentmergersClean upcostsremainthebiggestbarriertoexit socialcostsarealsosignificant Targetspecificationsfor2005require 40bninvestmentacrosstheEU OftheDutchrefineries onlyEssoandShellarewellplacedtomeet2005specswithoutmajorinvestment C SWOTAnalysis C 1 Strengths TheDutchoilsectorislargeandwellconcentrated accountingfor9 ofEUrefiningcapacity comparedto4 5 consumption Europoort Pernis CrudeCapacity b d Nerefco Shell Esso Total KPI S H 374 000 400 000 180 000 148 000 70 000 10 000 Botlek Vlissingen x Amsterdam Europoort 79 500 Koch Europoort Source MinistryofEconomicAffairs Allelementsoftheoilsectorarecloselyintegrated Chemicalcluster Refining Internationaltradingport Openandco operativegovernment StorageandBunkering Services utilitiesandcontractors Thisintegrationissupportedbyworldclassinfrastructure Harboursandterminals Deepwaterharbours particularlyRotterdamDirectaccessibilityfortheworld slargesttankersHighvolumecapacityandshortturn aroundtimeExtensivebargehandling Pipelines SupplyBelgiumandGermanywithcrudeandproductsConnectionstomajorchemicalclustersinandbeyondtheNetherlandsMorethan1100kmnetworkwithinRotterdamlinkingproducersandstoragecompanies RoadandRail ConsiderableinfrastructurecurrentlyinplaceMajorinvestmentprogrammeinprogress TheDutchports particularlyRotterdam benefitfromadvantageouslocations ClosetoNorthSeaoilfieldsNaturalportforMEcrudesdestinedforNWEuropeanmarket HollandoneofthemostdenselypopulatedEuropeancountriesPopulationof160millionwithin500kmradiusNavigableinlandwaterwaystomajormarkets C 2 Weaknesses OvercapacityhasledtolowprofitabilityintheDutchoilsectorandincreasingpressureforrationalisation Refining Storage OvercapacityinHollandreflectsthetrendinEUasawholeExportrefinerieswithlowconversioncapacityarevulnerable althoughspecialitynicheshelpprofitability Longtermstructuralovercapacity RecentmergersandalliancescreateanuncertainoutcomeforDutchoil OftheNetherlandsrefineries onlyShellandEssohavetheup gradingflexibilitytomeetfuturedemandswithonlylimitedinvestment Source IEA DutchMinistryofEconomicAffairs RB Panalysis FCCequivalentconversioncapacity distillationcapacity DistillationcapacityMT year 12 25 99 3 8 20 0 7 4 9 18 7 37 KPIEuropoort Total DOWVlissingen EssoRotterdam ShellPernis Nerefco BP Texaco Europoort 34 EURefineriesaverage 66 38 Germany 40 UnitedKingdom 24 France 23 Belgium AverageConversionCapacities 54 TheNetherlands Inaddition theNetherlandsattemptstoleadratherthangowithEuropeanenvironmentallegislation EUhassetnewproductspecificationsButNo levelplayingfield forrefineryemissionsatEUlevelEnforcementofregulationsstricterinNetherlandsInconsistenciesbetweenNational RegionalandMunicipalauthorities DutchOilSector Thecostofclean upregulationsinRotterdamisdistortingtheincentivesfortheoilindustrytoreleaseunusedland but TheLose LoseoutcomecanonlychangetoWin Winbyalteringtheincentivesforlandrelease Clean upcostsinEUarebetweenNLG100m NLG400mperrefinery NLG60 120 m2 Evenwhereplantshaveclosed oilindustryhasincentivetoretainlandandpayrentratherthanpayimmediateclean upcostSimilareconomicsconstrainreleaseofsurpluslandfromstorageterminals ProjectedshortageoflandforexpansionisdrivingMaasvlakte2projectCostoflandreclamationisexpensiveandwillbebornebytaxpayerinitially NLG500 m2 GovernmentpolicyisseentofocussolelyonRotterdam partlyasaconsequenceofMainPortPolicy Vlissingen Onlyonejettyterminal upto120 000dwt Isolatedfromnaturalgaspipelines WhenchemicalcompaniesfoundRotterdamunfavourable AntwerpwaschosenaboveotherDutchports Amsterdam Growthlimitedbywaterdepth shipsizeLackofrefininglimitssynergiesbetweenoilandchemicals C 3 Opportunities Thereareopportunitiesfornewbusinessesorsubstantialextensionstoexistingactivities Energy Pipelines Electricityco generationLowlevelheatcollectionanddistributionCO2collectionforgreenhouses CommoncarriertoreducetransportcostsandmeetenvironmentalaimsEthylenepipelineforchemicals Highvalue addedproduction Storage UpgradeproductsforrefineriesunabletomeetenvironmentalspecsHighqualityproductstrategyforexporttopremiummarketsPushforhighershareofchemicalsgrowth UseexcessstoragetoholdstrategicstocksforwholeEU Overcapacityisalong termproblemthatneedstobeaddressedbyindustrybutmaybehelpedbyGovernmentassistance FocusesinvestmentonareasofstrengthThereispotentialforindividualplantclosuresRecentmergers clusterapproachmayleadtonewcombinations Opportunity Action Aim Strongestunitsoperatenearfuelcapacity Landwouldbemadeavailableforportexpansion GovernmentIntroduceincentivesforclean upofformerorsurplussites Bestuseofunusedland Companiesoptimisewithininternationalnetworks Focusonstrongcompetitiveunits Governmentsponsordiscussiononoptimisation Alternativeforuncompetitiveunits C 4 Threats Thegreatestthreatisthatpressuretoadoptthehighestenvironmentalstandardswillhittheoilindustrytoohard anderodepublicsupport Over zealousenvironmentalismcouldbreaktheDutchoilindustryNetherlandsismuchtougheronpolicingcommonenvironmentalrulesthanotherEUstatesPressuregroupsandMunicipalitiescompetetoappeargreenerImplementationmethodsarenotseenasconsistentwiththetrueneeds Oilmaynolongerbeseenasacontributortosociety HighcostsassociatedwithRotterdamarecurrentlyoutweighedbyadvantages Shiftsinthelabourrate productivitybalancecouldchangethis PortduesontonnagebasishasledtohighestcrudeimportcostsinEuropeHighconstructioncostsOneofthehighestlabourratesinEuropeHighsocialcosts CompetitivelogisticsProximitytomarketplaceHighlabourproductivitySkilledworkforce tradingexperienceLowportlandrentals Externalcompetitionmayincreaseorbecomedistorted EUCompetition GlobalCompetition CheaperservicesatcompetingportsPetropreneursbuycheapassetsEUmemberstatesorunionssupportownweakerrefineries MiddleEastoilproductandbasechemicalexportsChemicalgrowthattractedtoUSbylowercosts Substitutionandnewtechnologycouldcausea surprise dropinoildemand butnosignificantchangelikelybefore2005 Transport CommonrailtechnologywillmakedieselsubstantiallymoreefficientHybridenginesBiomassethanolcouldsubstitutemogasanddieselFuelcelltechnologynosignificantimpactbefore2005IncreaseindieselmarketsharemaydistortrefineryeconomicsLPG CNGsubstitutionofmogasanddiesel Thecurrentverylowcrudeoilpriceswilldelayanysubstitutioneffects Otheruses Gas fromRussia NorthSea willsubstituteheatingoilinBelgiumandGermanyRenewablefuelsinexportmarketsFOforelectricityGOhome commercialheatingLFOforindustry D Recommendations Fourkeyissuesneedtobeaddressedtoensurelongterminternationalcompetitivenessoftheoilindustry Longtermcompetitiveness Stableindustrialpolicy Affordableenvironmentalpolicy Actiononinfrastructurecosts Optimisationofoilindustry Thereisalsoscopeforstreamliningproceduresandencouragingnewvalue addedactivities Astable visiblegovernmentpolicyfortheoilsectorneedstobeagreed andexternaltrendsregularlymonitored Seekconsensusonenvironmenttrade offsizeofoilindustrytypeofoilactivitieslocationandlogisticscorridorsPubliciseagreedvision OwnplansLinkageswithowninternationalnetworksImplicationsoflocationsConcreteides Implicationsofincreaseordecreaseinoilindustrypresence VROMpartofconsensusLocalauthoritiesbroughtintoconsensusandlocationplanning Longtermpolicydevelopment Evaluateinternationaloilindustrytrends ProvideowninformationandbenchmarksoncompetitivenessofDutchoilindustry Benchmarkcostinfrastructureandcharges VROMCompareotherEUstatesenvironmentregulations Regularfeedback MinistryofEconomicAffairs OilIndustry Ports Other EnvironmentalprinciplesforoilshouldbalancetheneedforcompetitivenesswithDutchenvironmentneeds AgreeapproachwithVROMMonitorproposalsthataddextracostabovecompetitorsEnsureonlyimplementedifenvironmentimpacthighReviewexistingtargetsforoilindustrySeekchangesifunduecompetitivepenalty ProvidecredibleestimatesofcompliancecostsProvidecomparisonswithcompetingareas Affordableenvironmentpolicy Flexibleimplementation VROMOnlyactaheadofcompetitornationsforclearbenefit VROMRetainflexiblemechanismsforimplementationConsideruseoftradingrights Atsametime continuetoencouragewiderEUprogressonenvironmentalstandardsand levelplayingfield MinistryofEconomicAffairs OilIndustry Other Optimisation includingscopeforeconomicallyviablerationalisation mustbeaddressedbytheoilindustry butwithactiveencouragementoftheMinistry Explorescope benefitsofoptimisationand orrationalisationOptimisewithinowninternationalnetworks Scopeforoptimisation RemovebarrierstorationalisationDiscusschangeofapproachtoclean upcostsofportland Revealfullpotentialforreleaseofportland RevieweffectofanythroughputreductionsExplorecost benefitofportlandreleasedcomparedtolandreclamation VROMtoreviewlandclean uprequirements Barrierstorationalisation Securesupportofauthoritiesforrationalisation optimisationVROMCompetitionauthoritiesLocalauthorities Enablingrole Objectofoptimisationistosecurelongtermcompetitiveness Somerationalisationmayalsoreduceemissionsandcongestion MinistryofEconomicAffairs OilIndustry Ports Other Furtheractionstomaintainstrongandcompetitiveinfrastructureshouldbeconsidered ConsiderselectedexistingpipelinesascandidatesNewpipelineinvestmentwhereviable Logistics Ensurefastapprovalanddevelopmentofinfrastructureprojects Competitivelocalauthoritytaxes rates Ifbenchmarkingshowsportinefficiency