价格形态百科-双顶底(2).doc

12、Double BottomRESULTS SNAPSHOTAppearanceA downward price trend bottoms out, rises, then bottoms again before climbing. Reversal Or ConsolidationShort-term(up to 3 months) bullish reversalFailure Rate64%Failure Rate if waited for breakout3%Average Rise40%, with most likely rise between 20 and 30%.Volume TrendDownward until breakoutThrowbacks68%Percentage meeting predicted price target68%Surprising FindingBottoms closer together show larger gainsSee alsoHead-and-Shoulders Bottoms, Complex; Horn BottomsPerhaps the biggest surprise with double bottoms is the high failure rate at 64%. Only a third of the formations classify as true double bottoms. They are the ones that have prices rising above the confirmation point, which is the highest high between the two lows. The failure rate tumbles to just 3 % if one waits for confirmation. Only those formations with confirmed breakouts are evaluated in this study. 双底形态失败几率高达64%。只有三分之一可以称为真正的双底。它们是价格穿越确认点的，两底之间最高价位。确认之后的失败率骤降到3%。本书只研究突破确认的双底。The average rise is 40% but is tempered by a third of the formations having gains less than 15%. These small rises are balanced by a third of the formations showing gains over 45%. The most likely rise is between 20% and 30%, relatively high for bullish formations. 平均涨幅40%。三分之一收益低于15%。三分之一超过45%。最常见的是20%-30%。Throwbacks occur 68% of the time, suggesting it is wise to wait for a throwback and invest once prices turn upward. In some cases, waiting for a throwback can save you from making an unprofitable trade. 68%的情况下会发生回调。明智的策略师等待回调然后介入。A surprising finding is that bottoms closer together outperform those spaced farther apart. The Statistics section of this chapter examines this in more detail. 一个令人惊奇的发现是底部接近的双底表现比疏远的要好。TourWhat does a double bottom look like? Figure 12.1 shows a good example of a double bottom. Prices reach a high in mid-March then head lower. For the next 3 months, prices continue down in a steady decline to die low in June. Volume picks up as prices near the low then peg the meter at over 1.1 million shares on June 18, the day prices reach a low of 12.69. From the March high, the stock declines 47% in 3 months. The high volume marks the turning point and the stock moves upward. However, a retest of the low is in store and prices round over and head down again. In late August, prices make another low when the stock drops to 13.06, also on high volume. The day after the low, on a burst of buying enthusiasm, the stock jumps up and reaches the confirmation point in just 2 days. Instead of continuing upward, however, the stock throws back to the breakout point and moves horizontally for just over a week before resuming its move upward. By late January, the stock reaches a high of 26 7/8, again of 75% from the breakout price.双底长什么样？图12.1是一个很典型的双底。价格在三月中旬形成头部，之后三个月一路下行，在六月止于极低。六月18日，价格到达12.69，从三月的最高点算起，三个月内该股下跌了47%。高成交量也标志着反转的出现，股价开始上行。然后，价格在再次探底前形成又一个头部。八月底，价格在13.06跌出另一个低点，伴随着高成交量。低点之后，随着疯狂的买入，股价跳升，两天后即冲到确认点。然而，在继续爬升前，股价突破后回调，横向运动一周多。一月底，该股达到了26 7/8，从确认点算起涨了75%。Figure 12.1 shows a double bottom and the gains achieved by such a formation. Are there key elements that make up a double bottom? Yes and a discussion of the key elements follows in the next section. 图12.1展示了双底的形态和其收益。双底有什么决定性要素吗？是的，随后的章节中进行讨论。Table 12.1Identification Characteristics of Double BottomsCharacteristicDiscussionDownward price trend价格趋势向下Prices trend down (short term) and should not drift below the left bottom. 价格趋势向下(短期)但不会突破左底价位。Rise between bottoms两底之间价格上升There should be a 10% to 20% rise (or more) between the two bottoms, measured from low to high. Peaks close together tend to be at the lower end of the range. The rise usually looks rounded but can be irregular. 两底之间的反弹高点至少要有10%-20%的涨幅Dual bottoms双底Bottom to bottom price variation is 4% or less. This is not crucial except that the two bottoms should appear near the same price level. 两个底部的价格相差不超过4%。不过并非严格规定，但两个底部应该价格接近。Bottom distance底部距离Bottoms should be at least a few weeks apart (many consider a month to be the minimum), formed by two separate minor lows (not part of the same consolidation area). Minimum bottom separation is not critical as the best gains come from formations with bottoms about 3 months apart, on average. 两个底部至少应相隔数周Prices rise after right bottom.右底之后价格上升After the second bottom, prices must rise above the confirmation point without first falling below the right bottom low. 在第二个底部形成后，价格必须越过确认点，并且不在跌破右底Bottom volume底部成交量Usually higher on the left bottom than the right. 左底通常比右底成交量高Breakout volume突破成交量Volume usually rises substantially. 成交量通常极大Confirmation point确认点The confirmation point is the highest high between the two bottoms. It confirms that a twin bottom formation is a true double bottom. A breakout occurs when prices rise above the confirmation point. 确认点是两底之间的最高点。它确认了两个底部的形态是双底。价格穿越确认点称为突破。Identification GuidelinesNot any two bottoms at the same price level will suffice for a double bottom. Listed in Table 12.1 are a number of guidelines that make correct selection easier. While considering the guidelines, look at Figure 12.2. The stock begins declining in mid-October 1993 from a price of about 56 1/2. It bottoms out at about 411/2 in mid-May. Prices never drop below the left low on the way to the bottom. The reason for this guideline is that you should use the two lowest minor lows on die price chart. Do not try to select one low then a nearby low just to satisfy the guidelines. The two points marked A and B in Figure 12.2 represent an incorrectly selected double bottom because point A has lower lows to die left of it. 并非所有两个底部且在同一价位的形态都可以称为双底，表12.1的一系列准则有助识别。思考指南的同时，对照图12.2。该股1993年十月中旬从56 1/2开始下跌。1994年五月中旬在41 1/2触底。在到达该底价之前价格从未更低过。这条准则的意义是要求选择图上最低的两个点。不要试图选取一个低点和附近的另一个地点来满足条件。图12.2中A和B不正确是因为A左边有更低的点存在。The rise between the two bottoms should climb at least 10%, as measured from the low at the bottom to the rise high. The confirmation point is die highest high between the two bottoms, and it is used to calculate the measure rule and to gauge the breakout price (more about diat later). Figure 12.2 shows a rise from the right bottom, at 415/32, to a high of 47 1/2. That is a rise of 15%, well above the 10% threshold. 双底之间的涨幅至少需要10%，从底部到爬升顶部测算。确认点是双底之间的最高点。该点用于测量规则和突破确认。图12.2的右底是415/32，到高点471/2，涨幅是15%，大于阈值10%。The bottom to bottom price variation should be 4% or less. The basic rule is that the two bottoms should appear to be near one another on the price scale. Figure 12.2 shows a price variation of about 1%. 双底的价格差别应低于4%。基本原则是二者的价格应该在一个价格量级上。图12.2中差别是1%。The two bottoms should be at least a few weeks apart but are often separated by many months, as shown in Figure 12.2. I set a 10-day minimum as die standard for selections in this study (15 days between turns out to be the measured minimum for all double bottoms hi this study). A month is the minimum separation that many professionals view as leading to powerful rallies. I set a lower standard to help verify diat this is true. It turns out that peaks close together perform better than those spaced farther apart. I limited the maximum separation to about a year (the widest had a separation of 374 days). 双底的时间间隔至少应为数周，但经常相隔数月。我在研究中设定10天为最低标准，最长不超过1年。其他一些专家认为1个月是最低。事实证明低谷离得较近的双底表现的比疏远的要好。Many of the identification guidelines are arbitrary and the classic definition of a double bottom has different ones. The classic definition says that the two bottoms should be at least 1 month apart, separated by less than a 3 % price variation, and have a confirmation point that rises 20% above the low (bottoms closer together have somewhat lower confirmation points). The rise between the two troughs should look rounded. 经典的双底定义与我的有所不同。经典定义要求双底相聚至少1个月，价差不超过3%，确认点要高与底部20%以上(相聚近的双底确认点也低些)，双底间的山峰须成圆形。I examined the performance difference between my definition and the classic one and optimized the parameters to achieve the best performance. What I discovered is that there is no meaningful performance difference between the various settings, so I used the less stringent guidelines in the statistical evaluation (10-day minimum separation, 4% price variation, 10% minimum rise to the confirmation point). 我检查了我的标准与经典标准的不同，优化参数以实现更好的表现。我发现不同定义在实际表现上并没有太大的区别，因此，保留了略为宽松的标准(10天，4%，10%)。A double bottom is not a true double bottom until prices rise above the confirmation point. In tabulating the statistics, / only count those double bottoms in which prices rise above the confirmation point. Why? Because of the high failure rate: 64%. There were 980 formations that looked like double bottoms, but their price trends eventually moved below the second bottom. An additional 525 formations performed as expected by rising to the confirmation point and continuing higher. If you buy a stock just after it touches the second bottom, your chances of having a successful trade are one in three. In other words, wait for prices to rise above the confirmation point. 价格突破确认点之后双底才是真正的双底。在统计中，我只计算了价格突破确认点的双底。为何？因为双底的超高失败率-64%。总计有980个图形看起来像双底，但是价格最终向下跌破右底。另外的525个形态表现的如预期突破确认点然后涨的更高。如果在价格刚刚触及右底时买入，成功机会只有三分之一。换言之，一定要等价格突破确认点。The volume chart for double bottoms usually shows the highest volume occurring on the left bottom. Diminished volume appears on the right bottom, and the volume trend of the overall formation is downward. None of these are absolute rules. Sometimes volume is highest on the right bottom instead of die left. However, on average, most of the formations obey the guidelines. 成交量图表显示，左底最高，右底低于左底，成交量呈下降趋势。不过这并非绝对规则。最大成交量有时出现在右底。不过多数情况下在左底。The breakout volume is high, usually well above the prior days volume and above the average volume as well. Again, this is not an inviolate rule so expect exceptions. 突破时成交量高与前一天和平均值。同样的，这也不是绝对要求。Why do double bottoms form? To answer that question, consider the double bottom shown in Figure 12.3. Prices reach a high in mid-April 1993 and move horizontally until nervousness sets in during September. Then prices start moving down, sliding from a high of 337/8 to 20/4 by late June 1994, a 40% decline in 9 months. 为何会形成双底？参考图12.3。价格在1993年四月中旬达到高峰，之后横向运动。直到9月开始下行，从高点33 7/8降到20 1/4，9个月中接近40%的跌幅。After reaching a multiyear low in June, prices recover some of their losses by moving upward. After reaching a new low, a rebound is quite common with a retest of the low typically following. A retest is just like it sounds; prices return to the low and test to see if the stock can support itself at that price level. If it cannot, prices continue moving down. Otherwise, the low usually becomes the end of the decline and rising prices result. 在6月跌至多年的低点时，价格开始回升。之后价格再度下跌回探，并跌破左底。回探顾名思义，价格回到低点测试股价是否在此获得支撑。如果不能，价格将继续下跌；否则，下跌将终止，上涨将开始。Such is the case depicted in Figure 12.3. It seems clear from the volume pattern that many investors believe the low, shown as point B, is a retest of point A. Volume surges on two occasions in the vain hope that the decline has ended. Investors are wrong. Prices hold at 21 for about a week before continuing down. As prices head toward the level of the June low, volume surges again. This essentially marks the end of the downward plunge. Prices hesitate at that level for slightly less than 2 weeks before turning around and heading upward.图12.3中，由成交量可见，B点是A点的回测。成交量爆发，以期下跌将终止，可惜投资者们错了。价格在21稍作停留就继续下跌，直到跌破6月的地点才止跌，此时才标志着下跌的终止。价格在此踯躅了大概2周才回升。A double bottom is nothing more than a retest of the low. Investors buy the stock in the hope that the decline has finally ended. Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are not, which leads us into the next section: failures. 双底无非是对低点再确认。投资者预期跌势终止而买入股票。他们有时正确有时错误，这就引入了另一个话题-失败。Focus on FailuresIt is obvious that the formation pictured in Figure 12.4 is a double bottom. The first bottom occurs after a downward price trend, as you would expect. The two bottoms are far enough apart, the rise between them is sufficient to delineate two minor lows, and the price variation between the two bottoms is small. The volume pattern is unusual in that the second bottom has a higher, denser volume pattern than the first. However, this is not significant. After the second bottom, prices rise at a steady rate until the confirmation point. Then prices jump up and pierce the prior minor high at about 40 5/8. When prices close above the confirmation line, it signals a valid breakout and confirms the double bottom formation. In this case, as is common for most double bottoms, prices throw back to the breakout point. However, prices continue moving down. Scrolling Figure 12.4 to the left, you would see prices making a new low in September 1993 at 31 3/8, below the February low of 34. 图12.4是一个典型的双底。第一个底部发生在下跌趋势之后；双底部相隔足够远；双底间的涨幅足够高；双底的价格差异很小。虽然，右底的成交量超过左底，但这不是很重要。右底之后，价格稳步突破确认点然后迅速蹿升。在这个例子里，像多数双底一样，价格回调突破点。然后，突破后继续下降。Had you purchased this stock on the breakout and held on, you would have lost money. I call this type of failure a 5% failure. Prices do not rise by more than 5% above the breakout before heading lower. Fortunately, 5% failures are also rare; they occur only 17 times in this study. To put that statistic in perspective, it means that on 525 separate occasions prices continue upward by more than 5%. 如果你在突破后买了这只股票并持有，会造成亏损。我称这种失败为5%失败。价格突破后没超过5%就掉头下降。幸运的是，5%失败很少见，在我的研究中只出现17次。据统计数据，525个案例中继续上涨超过5%。Figure 12.5 shows an example of a second type of failure that perhaps you, too, have seen. Ted is a novice investor with an attitude. He looks at the stock chart, checks the identification guidelines, and believes that the stock is making a double bottom. When prices rise after the second bottom, Ted decides to pull the trigger early and buys the stock, receiving a fill at 42 5/8. He reasons that all the indications suggest the stock has completed a valid double bottom. That being the case, why not get in now while the price is still low instead of waiting for prices to rise above the confirmation point (46 1/8)? Ted makes a good point. He is pleased with the stocks performance until it begins to round over. Does he sell out now at a small profit or should he hold on and risk a downturn while waiting for additional gains? This is a recurring investor dilemma. 图12.5是另一种你可能会遇到的失败模式。Ted是个投资新手，他认为图12.5正在形成双底，进而决定提前出手买入，42 5/8美元入场。他坚信所有的信号都显示图中正在形成双底，没道理不趁着价格仍地买入，等到确认点价格就太高了。Ted太心急了，价格开始出现头部迹象。他是应该带着少许利润出场呢，还是冒险等待更多利润？实在是个两难的境地。He decides to hang on to his position. During May, the stock surges upward again before beginning a downhill run. Ted watches in horror as his profit vanishes and losses mount. Eventually, when prices spike downward, he sells at the opening the next day and closes out his position. Ted决定继续持有头寸。在5月，股票急转直下。Ted看着利润一点点消失亏损越来越大。最终，价格暴跌，他忍痛割肉出局。What did he do wrong? He failed to wait for breakout confirmation. Prices must close above the confirmation point before a trade is placed. Otherwise your chances of success are only one in three. We discuss how to trade this formation properly in the Trading Tactics section of this chapter. 他做错了什么？没有等待突破确认点！应该在突破确认点后交易，否则成功率只有三分之一。在交易策略中将继续讨论。Trading TacticsTable 12.5 shows trading tactics for double bottoms. The measure rule predicts die minimum price move expected once a double bottom experiences an upside breakout. Consider the chart pictured in Figure 12.8. To calculate the predicted price, first determine the formation height by subtracting the lowest low from the highest high in the formation. Tn Figure 12.8, the lowest low occurs at the right bottom, with a price of 27.57. The highest high, marked on the figure by point A, is 31.09. Add the difference, 3.52, to the confirmation point, or the highest high between the two bottoms (that is, 31.09 + 3.52). Again, the highest high is point A. The result, 34.61, is the expected minimum target. You can see in the chart that prices meet the target in late December. A few days after meeting the target, prices momentarily descend before resuming their climb. During mid-April, the stock reaches its ultimate high price of 40.26 before declining. After you locate a potential double bottom, review the selection guidelines before placing a trade. Figure 12.8 shows a declining price trend leading to the first bottom. The rise between the two bottoms is about 13%, just above the 10% threshold. The two bottoms are at nearly the same price level and several months apart. 锁定潜在的双底后，在下单前复习形态规范。图12.8展示了一个下跌趋势形成第一个底部。之后的上涨离双底13%，超过了10%的阈值。两个底部几乎在同一价位，相距几个月。Very high volume appears on the left bottom with substantially reduced volume on the right bottom, which is typical. The overall volume trend slopes downward from the left bottom to the right, as expected. Once the second bottom of a double bottom occurs, you can use the measure rule to estimate the minimum price move. If the potential profit is large enough, then wait for the breakout. This cannot be overemphasized. With a dismal failure rate of 64%, you must wait for an upside breakout. Figure 12.5 is an example of what happens if you do not. 左底成交量极高，右底成交显著下降，此为典型表现。总体成交趋势从左底向右底下降。一旦第二个底部出现，即可以采用测量规则计算最低价格走势。如果潜在利润足够大，等待突破。鉴于双底失败率高达64%，突破之前不可太过高估盈利可能。图12.5是犯规的下场。A close above the confirmation point signals a breakout. The confirmation point is simply a fancy way of saying the highest high reached between the two bottoms. Shown is the confirmation point, marked point A in Figure 12.8, and a line extending to the breakout point. 成交价收在确认点水平线之上是突破的信号。Once prices close above the breakout point, should you buy the stock? Probably not. Since two-thirds of the formations rise up, then quickly return to the breakout price, it is wise to wait. Once prices complete the throwback to the breakout point, they may continue moving down. Usually, however, they turn around and start heading higher. In either case, wait for prices to stop descending and begin climbing again. When that happens, buy the stock. However, following this guideline means that you will miss some potentially profitable opportunities. 一旦价格收在确认点之上是否应该立刻买入？不见得。因为三分之二的情况下价格会回调到确认点，继续等待是个