051麦肯锡-公共电视运营模式.ppt

DevelopingaSustainableEconomicModelforPublicTelevision May29 2003 CONFIDENTIAL 1 PROJECTASPIRATIONSANDKEYQUESTIONS Identifyanddrivemajorchangesthatwillputpublictelevisiononamoresoundeconomicfootingandensureitsfuturesuccess Howsevereandlonglastingarethefinancialpressuresonthesystem Howshouldwelaunchtheseinitiativesandeffectlastingchange Whichperformanceimprovementopportunitiesofferthemostpromise 2 CHALLENGES BOTHSTATIONECONOMIESANDPROGRAMDEVELOPMENTAREAT RISK Excludescapitalfundingfordigitalupgrade Revenuesnotadjustedforinflation Growthratefrom1994 2001Source CPBAuditedFinancialReports AFR PBSanalysis dues AppendixQfromPBSSGwhitepaper FundingforPBSNPSProgrammingbyFunderCategory 1 93Billion 450Million 2001LocalStationEconomy 2001NationalProgramFunding Prospectsforfuturerevenuegrowth 3 5 peryear 3 1 peryear Historicalgrowthinrevenues 1990 2001 Currentsize Declineinrealtermsduetofallingnetmemberrevenues Asystemdecision 5 4 peryear Flattoveryslowlygrowing 1 aboveinflation 2001StationAssessment 107M 3 273 3 374 0 249 4 328 5 230 5 330 5 205 6 347 6 128 6 259 6 104 2 145 6 62 9 94 5 TotalPTVsystemrevenue 1990and2001 Millions University In kind Corporateandfoundationgiving Unrelatedbusiness Stateandlocalfunding Federalfunding Membergiving Excludescapitalfundingfordigitalupgrade additionalcapitalfundraising endowment andinterest Federalagencygrantsfor2001areestimated assumed5 growthover2000 Source AFR federalreports PBSannualreports 1 25billion 1 88billion CHALLENGES ONLYGROWTHAREASAREUNRELATEDBUSINESSANDUNDERWRITING 1990 2001 3 8 3 1 6 6 4 9 3 3 2 9 AnnualGrowth 1990 2001 2 5 Driversofgrowth 4 CHALLENGES HISTORICALLY THESYSTEMHASGROWNTHROUGHDIVERSIFICATION NOWALLREVENUESOURCESARETHREATENED Source AFRs Teamperspective FutureOutlook 5 CHALLENGES NETSTATIONMEMBERSHIPREVENUEHASDECLINEDINREALTERMSSINCE1990 Allgrowthratesarecompoundannualgrowthrates Source AFRs BureauofLaborStatistics Fundraisingcosts 1 0 Netmembershiprevenues 0 9 17millionlostincome Millions Adjustedforinflationtoconstant2001 Grossrevenues 0 1 6 CHALLENGES DECLINESWILLCONTINUEINNETMEMBERSUPPORT Pledge whichistheengineofnewmemberacquisition hasseenrisingcostsrelativetonewmemberyieldinlinewithdecliningproductivitytrendsoutsidePTV NetrenewalrevenuewillnotoffsetdecliningacquisitionStationsalreadyhaveamongthenonprofitsector shighestrenewalratesRenewalmail sproductivityisflattodecliningDecliningratingsincreasestations challenge Fallingratingslikelycontributetothelongtermmembershipdecline bothbecausetheprospectpoolwithaconnectiontoPTVshrinksandbecausemembershiprenewalishighlycorrelatedwithaudience Withthenumberofnonprofitsgrowingtwiceasfastasrealhouseholdcharitablegiving stationswillbehardpressedtogrowtheirshareofmembers wallets Source DonorCentricsComparisonReportforPublicTelevision December2000 DMAFactbook2001 GivingUSA2002 AudienceSize NewMember RenewingMember PhilanthropicEnvironment MembershipRevenueDrivers Outlook 7 CHALLENGES STATIONHAVEMETTHESECHALLENGESINTHEPASTBYCONTROLLINGCOSTSACROSSTHEBOARD 1990 Underwriting Programinformation Fundraising Managementandgeneral Broadcasting Programmingandproduction 100 1 80billion 7 9 3 3 3 8 3 1 4 0 3 8 ExpensesdonotincludeCPBorPBSoverheadorCPBprovidednonstationgrantsSource AFR PBSannualreport 2001 AnnualGrowthRate1990 2001 Stationsexpense 1990and2001Percent 100 1 19billion 2001 NPSduesandservices 4 0 Nearly1 3ofstationprogrammingandproductioncostsareconcentratedinproducingstationsfornationalprogramming 8 2001Actual 2010Illustrative Broadcastops Membership Educ outreach Other CHALLENGES REVENUEDECREASESWILLPROMPTREPEATEDPAINFULCOSTREDUCTIONS Source SABS interviews Stationcost cuttingscenario 15 revenueloss Acquisition scheduling Prog production General administrative 10 7million Underwriting Website 76 Reduceheadcountby26 from80to59Cutlocalproductionbudgetby40 reducingannuallocallyproducedhoursfrom109to65EliminatetheProgramGuideMaintainorslightlydecreaseinvestmentinwebsiteandeducation 76 9 1million Illustrativeexpensebudgetforanaveragemedium largecommunitystation 100 9 CHALLENGES CAPITALINVESTMENTSMAYFURTHERREDUCEAVAILABLEFUNDING Only 800millionoftheestimated 1 7billiongoalhasbeenraised Plansaretoreplacecurrentinfrastructureby2006usingCPB s 177millionappropriationrequest Source CPB APTSDigitalClearinghouse PBSestimates NextGenerationInterconnect NewServices Plannedcapitalinvestments Potentialstrategicinvestments Bringingthebestofpublictelevisionintoadigitalmediaworldthroughtheuseofdigitalcable VOD PVRsandHighDefinitionprogramming Innovatingandlaunchingnewservicessuchasdistancelearningornewmediaservicesthatmaynotgenerateincome atleastinthenearterm 10 CHALLENGES NATIONALPROGRAMMING LIKEWISE FACESUNPRECENTEDPRESSURES UnprecedentedchangesinaudiencedemographicsandviewingenvironmentIncreasinginvestmentinprogrammingandpromotionfromcablecompetitors ExternalPressures InternalPressures LittleornogrowthintraditionalsourcesofrevenueRisingcostsandnewcosts suchasHDproduction Responses Introducingnew limitedseriesandspecialstoslowratingsdeclineIncreasingfundingfromCPBandPBStocoverrisingperhourcostsGreaterrelianceonfully fundedprogramsPeriodiccostreduction NationalProgramming 11 CHALLENGES NORELIEFFROMTRADITIONALPROGRAMMINGFUNDINGSOURCES IncludesgovernmentagenciessuchasNSFandNEH butnotCPBappropriationSource PBSSG sEnvironmentalScanofthePBSSponsorshipSalesModelAugust2002 2002figuresareestimatesasof12 12 02 Growthintotalprogramminginvestment NPS Plus SIP Select 1991 2001 Millions Corporate Foundation privateproducer other Station PBS andCPB 1991 2001GrowthRate 7 1 5 4 2 6 266 301 338 267 291 327 370 311 326 379 450 Prospectsforfuturefundinggrowth Source 1991 2001GrowthRatePercent Futureoutlook PBS stations 4 impossibletoincreaseassessments absentverycompellingcase Corporate underwriters 5 AbilitytojoininrecoveryofTVadmarketthreatenedbyturnoverofkeyunderwritersandcommercialcompetition CPB 3 Federaldeficits fiscalenvironment threatenrequestedincreases Foundations 9 Slowergrowthlikelyasfoundations stabilizegivinglevelsafterrapid increasesinthelate1990sand shrinkingendowmentssince2000 Independent producers 8 Continuedgrowthuncertain Government agencies 9 Threatenedbygovernmentdeficits Other 10 Toosmalltomakeadifference 432 12 CHALLENGES INCREASINGLY NATIONALPROGRAMMINGDOLLARSHAVELESSLEVERAGERELATIVETOCOMPETITION GrowthRate19 9 Programminginvestmentof4comparablecablenets Annualprogramminginvestment 1993 2001 Millions Source Kagan sEconomicsofBasicCableNetworks2002 TVProgramInvestor PBS NPSoriginalbroadcastandre upspending GrowthRate4 7 Averageinvestment 41M year PTVinvestment 334M year PTVinvestment 450M year Average 183M year 8 1 2 5 1 13 CHALLENGES INDEPENDENTCOMMERCIALBROADCASTSTATIONSFACESIMILARPRESSUREANDARERESPONDINGWITHSIMILARSOLUTIONS INCREASESCALEANDIMPROVEPRACTICES Pressureonlocalnews thecashcowfrom AudiencefragmentationGreatercompetitionRatingsforsyndicatedprogrammingdownwhilecostsareupDecreases eliminationofnetworkcompensationDifficultadmarketDTVmandatesThreatfrommoreO Os IndustryPressures Acquisition consolidationtoachievescaleProgramacquisitionTechnologyinvestment e g trafficoperations salessystems graphics Sharedservices e g accounting HR Upgradeofsalespracticesandsystems e g pricing IndustryResponses 14 OPTIONS WEBEGANTHEPROCESSBYDEFININGASETOFCRITERIA Criterion1 Likely large andnear term represents 10Mnetperyearwithin5years basedonclearbusinesscasefromcompellinginternalexamplesorrelevantexternalbenchmarks Criterion2 UnderPTVcontrol Achievingtheopportunitydidnotrelysolelyona happyaccident outsideofthesystem scontrol Criterion3 Nomajorstrategicissues pursuingthiswouldnotrequiremajorconsultationtoreassess reaffirmthestrategy mission positioningofPTV 15 OPTIONS ABROADRANGEOFIDEASWERECOLLECTEDTHATWEBELIEVEDMIGHTMEETTHECRITERIA TraditionalRevenueSources C Foundations D LocalPartnerships AncillarySources DigitalTelevision B FederalSupport B Collaboration MasterControlCommercialPartnersMembership UnderwritingSales B ChangeProgrammingMix SystemEfficiencies Programming A ImproveLowerPerformingStations 16 OPTIONS WEANALYZEDTHEIDEASAGAINSTEACHCRITERION Criterion3 Nomajorstrategicissues Criterion2 UnderPTVcontrol Criterion1 Likely large nearterm MajorgiftsMemberretentionMembershipcostNationalunderwritingLocalunderwritingFoundationfundraisingCableChannelDomesticwindowingVOD TIVONewdigitalservicesIncreasedfederalsupportforDTVRightsmanagementSystemefficiencies Needastrategicplantopursue CableChannelDomesticwindowing Prepareforbutavoidover investment VOD TIVOIncreasedfederalsupportforDTV Goodideasbutinsufficienttosecurefinancialhealth NewdigitalservicesMemberretentionMembershipcostLocalunderwriting MajorgiftsMemberretentionMembershipcostNationalunderwritingLocalunderwritingFoundationfundraisingVOD TIVONewdigitalservicesIncreasedfederalsupportforDTVRightsmanagementSystemefficiencies MajorgiftsMemberretentionMembershipcostNationalunderwritingLocalunderwritingFoundationfundraisingNewdigitalservicesRightsmanagementSystemefficiencies MajorgiftsNationalunderwritingFoundationfundraisingRightsmanagementSystemefficiencies 17 OPTIONS THREEPOTENTIALSOLUTIONSPASSEDEACHSCREEN ExpandmajorandplannedgivingeffortsPursuecostsavingsthroughstationandsystemefficienciesImprovemodelforNationalProgramming 18 Basedoncasestudystations includingKUED OPTV KNPB andWGBHSource Stationinterviews McKinseyNonprofitPractice Givingpyramidfortypicalstationbeforelaunchingmajorgifteffort Givingpyramidfortypicalstationafterlaunchingmajorgivingeffort Majorgivingrevenue 6 94 13 87 SOLUTIONS MAJORGIVINGHASAPOTENTIALIMPACT 20 35MILLIONNETREVENUE Ifallstationscouldseecomparableimprovements systemcouldraise 20 35millionnetrevenue 19 SOLUTIONS CASESTUDIESOFFERUSEFULROLEMODELSFORSTATIONSLAUNCHINGHIGHTOUCHDEVELOPMENTEFFORTS Source Stationdata KLRU KNPB OregonPTV andKUED 6 5 1 6 1 6 CostperdollarraisedPercent 4 7 6 0 2 0 17 2 9 KNPB smajorgivingeffortwassuccessfulbecausetheyaggressivelytargetedhighnetworthindividualsforlargegifts Thousands KLRU smajorgivingeffortgrew 3timesasfastastheirregularmembershipefforts Thousands Oregonhasbeensuccessfulbecausetheyexpandedafullrangeofhightouchdevelopmentefforts includingmajorgiving plannedgiving andanendowmentfund Thousands 75 90 113 Numberofmajordonors 27 47 71 106 25 6 Midlevelgiving Majorgiving Plannedgiving Endowment 34 80 82 122 112 Numberofmajordonors 7 63 85 N A 95 127 33 6 1 701 787 460 615 697 Costperdonor 0 814 575 N A 960 632 10 4 KUED slong terminvestmentinmajorgivinghasledtoaten foldincreaseinthisrevenue Thousands GrowthRate 25 5 1 420 2 174 3 054 3 790 4 519 7 853 8 495 GrowthRate 28 9 GrowthRate 14 0 20 SOLUTIONS SUCCESSREQUIRESSIGNIFICANTACTION Definedasstationswithnoorlimitedmajorgivingeffortsorreporting lessthan6 oftotalmemberrevenuesfrommajorgifts Definedasstationswheremajorgivingrevenuesaccountfor6 13 oftotalmemberrevenue Definedasstationswheremajorgivingrevenuesaccountfor 14 oftotalmemberrevenueSource SABS Stationssegmentedbymajorgiftefforts Total 176 374M Numberofstations Totalmemberrevenue Strongmajorgifteffort Limitedmajorgifteffort Somemajorgifteffort Establishfullrangeofhightouchdevelopmentefforts i e majorgiving plannedgiving endowmentdevelopment Opportunity Potential 10 20Mnetrevenue Raisecurrenteffortsuptobestpractice e g improveexistingmajorgiving expandmenuofhightouchdevelopmentofferings 8 15Mnetrevenue Continueeffortstoachievefullpotential Totalunknown 20 35M 21 SOLUTIONS MEMBERSHIPSTAFFOUTNUMBERSMAJORGIVINGSTAFFOVER6 1 Source SABS Serveover1 5millionmembersandover 120millioninrevenue Serve8500majorgiversandover 40millioninrevenue 22 SOLUTIONS KEYELEMENTSOFOURPLANWILLINCLUDEDEVELOPINGCAPACITYATSTATIONS WITHGMsANDBOARDS ASWELLASWITHINDEVELOPMENTDEPARTMENTS 23 McKinseyStudy SOLUTIONS SYSTEMWIDEOPERATIONALEFFICIENCIESHASTHEPOTENTIALFOR 40 200MILLION CentralizedMasterControlRegionalNationalConsolidatedtransmissionfacilitiesFullyautomatedtrafficmanagement schedulingCentralizedIngestProducingcentersInterconnectionPOPConsolidatedarchivingCentralized nationalpurchasingConsolidatedIT TelcomfunctionalityAdministrative Backofficeconsolidation OpportunityCostSavings BoozAllenStudy AccentureStudy 24 SOLUTIONS BROADCASTOPERATIONSWORKFLOWSPROJECT DECISION IMPLEMENTATION ANALYSIS PLANDEVELOPMENT COMMUNICATIONS LAUNCH 25 SGsellsadditionalsponsorshipInventory SOLUTIONS NATIONALPROGRAMMING SOBJECTIVE IDENTIFYIMPROVEMENTSINVALUECHAIN NEWPROCESSES DIFFERENTROLES Setpriorities agenda Commissionprojects analyzeresults Synthesizeallfindings Share distributefindings Setstrategy Definefuturescheduleplan goals Devisemetricstomeasuresuc