05-TOC约束理论(瓶颈管理)八讲 行销.doc

GOLDRATT SATELLITE PROGRAM高瑞特卫星节目SESSION 5第五讲MARKETING营销Good to see you again. 很高兴又见到你们。Marketing. 营销。I am afraid that this session will have to start in a very banal way. 我担心这个讲次一开始的介绍方式会很老套。We will have first of all to define what is marketing. 我们会先为营销下定义。Why? 为什么呢？Because in spite of the fact that every marketing book in the last 50 years is giving reasonable definition of marketing reality is that in most companies you will not find marketing.虽然在过去50年内，每本营销书籍都为营销下了合理的定义，然而实际上在大部分的公司里，你找不到营销。They somehow confuse marketing with sales. 他们把营销和销售混为一谈。So maybe we should use some stronger words to deliver the message of what is marketing and what is sales and how different they are from each other.所以也许我们应该使用更有力的表达方式来传达营销和销售的概念，区分两者间的差异。Marketing in my eyes is spreading the corn for the ducks to come and sit. 我认为营销是在地上撒谷粒，让鸭子进来坐。Sales is taking a gun and shoot a sitting duck. 销售是拿枪射杀一只静坐不动的鸭子。And if the duck is not sitting but moving like a mosquito, dont blame the sales person, blame the fact that you dont have marketing. 如果这只鸭子并非静坐不动，而是像蚊子一样到处移动，不要责怪销售人员，要怪你自己没有营销。In other words, marketing is bringing the market to desire your product or your service. 换句话说，营销是让市场渴望得到你提供的产品或服务。When you are at the stage of marketing you dont see an individual prospect, you see maximum section of the market in front of your eyes. 你在做营销时，眼前不是只看到一位潜在顾客，而是看到市场内最大的一部分。Sales is you see a specific prospect and your job is- close the deal. Close the deal. 销售是指你看到一位特定的潜在顾客，你的工作是完成交易。Now, if you think it is easy to shoot a sitting duck, try to do it.现在，如果你认为射杀一只静坐不动的鸭子很容易，就放手试试看。And remember if you miss and the bullet goes near its ear, it is not sitting any more. 别忘了，如果你射歪了，子弹靠近牠的耳朵，牠就不会继续静坐不动。It flew.牠飞走了。Good marketing means, have a lot of sitting ducks with glue on their feet. 好的营销意谓着：拥有许多只脚上沾满黏胶静坐不动的鸭子。Now how do you do it? 现在你要怎么做？What is the real problem today that prevents companies from doing good job in marketing? 在目前，究竟是什么问题让公司无法做好营销的工作？What is the problem, what is the core problem? 问题出在哪里？什么是核心问题？From analyzing the market, and I will not go today into full analyses, I will just rely on things that we have already established, which is the problem, once again is this notion of local optima is the way to reach the global optima, the local notion of things. 从分析市场开始，但是我今天不会作全盘的分析，只会根据我们已经建构的事实。因此，问题就是我们以为达到局部效益就能达到整体效益。And this is what creates the real conflict for marketing. 就是这种想法造成营销真正的冲突。It stems from the fact that due to this local approach of looking at things trying to optimize each portion in isolation, we have increased drastically one of the perception of value that exists in the field. 从局部的角度来看事情，会让我们想要使每一部分个别达到最大效益，于是就会大幅提高这个领域内其中一种认知价值。You see, when you have a product or a service there are two different perceptions of value for this same product. 你看，如果你提供一项产品或服务，这个产品会有两种不同的认知价值。One is a perception of value of the supplier. What is it based on? 一个是来自于供货商的认知价值，这是以什么为基础呢？If you really look on it, it is based on actually the efforts that went into providing this product. 如果你深入探讨，会发现其实是以提供这项产品所付出的努力为基础。The more efforts, the more money, the more time it took you as a provider to bring this product from nothing into the hands of the client, the more you think that it is valuable.你付出的努力、金钱、和时间愈多，将这项产品从无到有交到客户的手中，你就认为愈有价值。If you put into the material 1000 dollars and then you have to work so much, you have to put new technology and you have to build whole expensive distribution thing, in order to provide it, you think that the value is high.如果你的原料是一千美元，你必须非常努力，使用新技术，建立完整昂贵的配销通路，才能提供这项产品，所以就认为价值非常高。In other words there is something called supplier perception of value. 换句话说，这叫做供货商的认知价值。And this value is according to the investment in bringing the product or the service to the market. 这个价值是根据这项产品或服务引进市场所需的投资而定。But lets not forget there is another perception of value to the same exact product or service.但是我们不要忘了，同样的产品或服务还有另一种认知价值。And this is the perception of value of your client, of your market. 就是你的客户和市场对产品的认知价值。Now if you noted it has nothing to do with your cost or your efforts to bring the product. 现在你注意一下，这个价值与你的成本或努力毫无关系。It has everything to do with what? -with how much your product if I will acquire it, how much benefits am I going to get from it. 与什么有关呢？如果我买你的产品，可以得到多少好处？It has everything to do with satisfying my needs, it has nothing to do with your efforts. 只跟满足我的需求有关，跟你的努力毫无关系。Is it understood, yes or no? 了解了吗？Suppose that you had huge efforts but this product is not satisfying my needs or satisfying it to a very, very small degree, who cares? 假设你付出相当多的努力，但是这项产品无法满足我的需求、或只能满足我极少部分的需求，谁在乎呢？I am not willing to pay a lot.我不愿意花很多钱购买。Customer perception of value is according to the benefits expected from acquiring the product or the service. Nothing to do with your cost. 顾客的认知价值是根据预期从购买产品或服务得到的好处，与你的成本无关。Now look how these two perceptions of value bringing marketing into an enormous conflict. 现在看一下，这两种认知价值如何为营销带来相当大的冲突。And this I believe is a conflict which is at the root of jeopardizing our marketing efforts. 我认为这个冲突就是使得营销努力付诸流水的罪魁祸首。Lets look on the conflict. 让我们看一下冲突。You want to make good decisions. You want to arrive at good decisions. 你想要做出好决策，想要得到好决策。In order to arrive at good decisions, when we are talking about marketing, good decision must be such that if you will follow that decision you will get enough sales volume. 为了得到好决策，谈到营销，我们所谓的好决策必须要能让你获得足够的销售量。Because if you dont get good enough sales volume this is definitely not good decision.如果你无法获得足够的销售量，绝对不是好决策。In order to get enough sales volume you have to satisfy what?- the market, otherwise they will not buy enough from you. 为了获得足够的销售量，你必须满足什么？市场，否则他们就不会向你购买足够的产品。Or in other words, in order to get enough sales volume you must act upon the clients or the prospects perception of value.或者换句话说，为了获得足够的销售量，你必须根据客户或潜在客户的认知价值采取行动。But on the other hand, good decision means also what- that you will not lose your pants.但是从另一方面来看，好决策代表什么意义呢？不会让你倾家荡产。In other words arriving at good decision means that you must get a reasonable product margin. 换句话说，做出好决策意谓着你必须得到合理的产品毛利。And in order to get a reasonable product margin you must act upon the supplier perception of value. 为了得到合理的产品毛利，你必须根据供货商的认知价值采取行动。And now you are at a huge conflict. And this conflict is not just at the highest levels. 现在你面对极大的冲突。这个冲突不只发生在公司的最高阶层。In any company how many times have you heard an argument or a quarrel like -dont accept the order, the price that this client is willing to pay is ridiculous. 在任何一家公司里，你是否听过无数次这样的争吵不要接这张订单，客户愿意付的价钱太荒谬了。Sorry, we must accept the order we dont have enough work.很抱歉，我们必须接这张订单，我们的业务量不够。We must get more sales, so I will accept the order. 我们必须有更多的业绩，所以我要接这张订单。Dont accept the order, accept the order, dont accept the order, why did you accept the order? 不要接这张订单，接这张订单，不要接这张订单，你为什么要接这张订单呢？Have you heard such arguments before? 你是否听过这类的争吵？This is showing you to what extent companies are oscillating on the conflict arrow.这种情况告诉你公司正面临冲突。As long as this cloud, this conflict exists, marketing hands are totally tied up. 只要这个冲突图存在，营销人员就会完全动弹不得。We have to find a way to break this cloud. And this is actually the job of marketing. 我们必须找一个方法来破解这个冲突图。实际上，这就是营销的任务所在。My first step will be to purify this cloud. 我的第一步骤是要澄清一下这张冲突图。Because if you noticed in the cloud itself not just in the assumption of the cloud we have already the connotation of the local optima.如果你看一下冲突图本身，而不只是冲突图背后的假设，会发现我们已经隐含了局部效益的概念。Which tells us even the problem itself today is not stated correctly, where is this connotation of local optima, it is coming from the word- product margin. 也就是说，问题本身陈述的方式并不正确。哪里隐含了局部效益的概念？来自于产品毛利这个词。How do we calculate product margin? Based on product cost.我们如何计算产品毛利？根据产品的成本。What have we learned in these series, of programs? Product cost is baloney. 我们从前面这些讲次中学到什么？ 产品成本根本是一派胡言。So first of all lets clarify to ourselves so that we will see the real conflict, it does exist. 所以，我们要先了解问题，才能看到真正的冲突，冲突确实存在。But lest purify it from the local optima fog that is around it. 不过要将环绕在局部效益旁边的云雾拨开，才能澄清问题。If we look on the assumption that led us to product margin lets look on what it is? 先看一下我们是从什么假设导出产品毛利的？In order to arrive to good decisions you must get reasonable product margin, why? 为了做出好决策，你必须得到合理的产品毛利，为什么呢？Because the assumption is - having positive margin for each product or service guarantees that the company is profitable. 因为背后的假设是：只要每项产品或服务的毛利为正，就能确保公司赚钱。That is why you want it. 所以你希望得到合理的产品毛利。Now from reality, is it correct? 现在我们看一下现实状况真的是这样吗？Most companies that are losing money currently, do they have positive margins on each and every product? 目前许多公司都在亏损，他们每项产品的毛利都为正数吗？And the answer is yes. Which means something is wrong in the assumption是的。也就是说，这个假设有问题。If you look a little bit more into it, you will find immediately the fallacy of this assumption. 如果你再深入探讨，立刻会发现这个假设有漏洞。Look on the following. 看看以下的例子。Suppose that we are producing one unit of one product.假设我们生产一单位的甲产品。Of course, all the overhead is contributed to this one product and by that we know what is the product cost and, thus the product margin.当然，全部的开销都是为了生产这个产品，因此我们知道产品的成本和毛利。Suppose that we are producing 2 units of the same product. What happened to the product cost?假设我们生产两单位的甲产品，产品的成本会发生什么事呢？It is much, much more reduced. The whole calculation of the product margin has to change.成本会大幅降低，产品毛利的整个计算结果必须改变。Which means if you noticed, even though we are talking in terms of product margin and as if we have a very accurate notion of it, it is just an illusion. 也就是说，你会发现虽然我们以产品毛利的角度来看结果，好像这种观念非常正确，但实际上却只是个假象。Why? Because the product margin is also a function of how much from each one of our products are we going to sell.为什么呢？因为产品毛利也必须取决于产品销售的数量。Anybody know that? How accurate is your forecast on the product level? 有没有人知道你在产品层级的销售预测准确度如何？A joke, which means it gives us an impression that it is accurate when it is not.简直是个玩笑！也就是说，在我们的印象中好像很准确，但实际上却不然。And if we have missed in our expectation about the quantities, even though if it looked to us, based on historic data, as if each product has a positive margin we will be amazed or not so amazed where we finish the quarter with a loss.如果我们的预测数量不正确，则虽然从历史数据看来每项产品的毛利都为正，但是等到这一季结束时发现亏损，就会大吃一惊。This assumption is wrong. 这个假设是错的。In order to make sure that you understand to what extent it is wrong, lets take the sister assumption underlying the same arrow, which is even more demanding.为了确认你真的了解这个假设是错的，让我们再看同样的箭头背后另一个假设，错得更离谱。There is another assumption here.这里有另一个假设。In order to arrive to good decisions we must get per each product reasonable product margin because assumption that we make is any sales which has negative margin reduces the companys profitability.为了做出好决策，我们必须让每项产品都得到合理的产品毛利，因为背后的假设是如果任何一笔交易的毛利为负，就会减少公司的获利。If you take even a single product and sell it below cost, by that you have caused the profitability of the company to go down. 如果你将一项产品以低于成本的价格卖出，就会减少公司的获利。This is our assumption. Is the assumption correct? 这是我们的假设，这个假设对吗？I hope that by now you understand that it is not. 我希望你现在能了解这个假设是错的。But let me show you to what extent. Lets take an example just to show you how wrong is this assumption.但是让我举一个例子来告诉你这项假设错得多离谱。Suppose that you have a company that sells per year 100 million dollars.假设你拥有一家公司，每年的销售额是一亿美元。And what can we do? You are losing 2 million dollars at the end of the year. 到了年底你损失两百万美元，我们该怎么办呢？It is not an exception. 这是常态，不是例外的情况。And you have excess capacity.你有剩余的产能。The constraint is in the market, you dont have enough sales.限制是在市场，你没有足够的销售量。You have so much excess capacity that you actually can produce 20% more volume. 你有过多剩余产能，实际上还可以再提高20%的产量。And you are lucky. You are lucky because there is a segmented market where you can get rid of this 20% but for prices which are 30% below your current prices. 你很幸运，因为你可以在某个区隔的市场内，以低于目前售价的30%卖出这20%的产品。Which means definitely below cost. 这意谓着你的售价绝对低于成本。Let me first of all emphasize what I mean by segmented market. 让我先强调一下区隔的市场是什么意思。Segmented market is not a niche in the market, it doesnt have the same connotation.区隔的市场不是利基市场，这两者的含意不同。Segmented market means: a section of the market will be called segmented if and only if any price and quantity that you sell in this market, in this section doesnt have any effect whatsoever on the price and quantities that you are selling in the other sections. 区隔的市场代表：市场中某个部分的价格和数量发生变动，不会影响市场中其它部分的价格和数量。Then and only then you say that it is segmented.此时才称为区隔的市场。Now lets suppose that this company has such a segmented market. 现在我们假设这家公司有这样一个区隔的市场。Not so easy to achieve. 要做到这一点并不容易。My question is what will happen to the profitability of the company if we take 20% additional production that definitely we can sell in this segmented market but for a loss relative to the product cost and well do it. 我的问题是：如果我在这个区隔的市场内，以低于成本的价格出售20%的多余产量，会对公司的获利产生什么影响？In order to be able to do the calculation lets assume that raw material and subcontracting and commission, in other words all the totally variable cost, the one that you have to pay more per each additional unit that you are producing, lets suppose that this is 40% of the original price. 为了能计算，让我们假设原料、外包和佣金等所有的变动成本，等于目前售价的40%。Now remember we are talking here about selling a large quantity, additional quantity for a loss.现在要记得，我们在这里说的是大量销售，以赔本的价格卖出多余的产品。According to this assumption we should lose even more. 根据这项假设，我们应该会损失更多。If we are now losing 2 million, we should lose even more. 如果现在亏损两百万美元，我们应该会损失更多。What happens when we do the calculation? 我们在计算时，会发生什么事呢？Well, lets do the calculation, it is not so difficult. 好，我们来算一下，这并不难。Look, 20% more, if we sell 20% more for the original prices it means that delta sales will be additional 20 million dollars. Correct?你看，如果我们以目前的售价多卖出20%，表示会多增加二千万美元的销售额。对不对？The total was 100 million and we are selling another 20 at the original prices, then the delta, the change in sales would be positive 20 million. 总销售额是一亿美元，我们以目前的售价多卖出20%，那么销售额会增加两千万美元。But we cannot sell it in the current prices, we can sell it in segmented market but for 30% less. 但是我们无法以目前的售价卖出，我们可以在区隔的市场内，以低于目前售价的30%出售。This means that delta sales in the segmented market will actually be only, help! 14 million, 30 % less. 也就是说，在这个区隔的市场内，实际上只增加一千四百万美元的销售额，少了30%。This is delta sales, change is sales this is not change in throughput.这是销售额的变动量，并不是有效产出的变动量。Why? Because due to the fact that we are producing and selling more, we have to have more raw materials and commission and so on. 为什么呢？因为我们生产和销售更多的产品，所以必须支付更多的原料和佣金等成本。How much? 40% of the original price. If the original was 20 million dollars 40 % means 8 million.多少呢？目前售价的40%。如果原来是两千万美元，40%等于八百万美元。Which means we have to reduce from it totally variable cost of 8 million.也就是说，我们必须扣掉八百万美元的总变动成本。This means that the delta throughput will be 6 million. 因此有效产出的变动量会是六百万美元。How much is the delta operating expense? How much more operating expense do we have to pay?营运费用的变动量是多少？我们还必须支付多少额外的营运费用？Nothing. We said, this is excess capacity that we pay anyhow.零。因为我们说过，这是剩余的产能。Which means that the delta operating expense is zero and thats why the delta net profit is 6 million dollars.也就是说，营运费用的变动量为零，因此净利的变动量就是六百万美元。So, if we have lost 2 million dollars before now we have made 4 million dollars profit.所以，如果我们之前亏损两百万美元，现在就有四百万美元的利润。Look what happened here.看看这里发生了什么事。I have sold additional things. Each one of them I have sold in a loss, but in the total I have made money.我卖了多余的产品，以赔本的价格出售每个产品，但是整体来看我赚钱了。No wonder, cost accounting is simply wrong we have proved it more than once. Ok? 这也难怪，成本会计根本就是错的我们不只一次证明了这个结果，对吗？The assumption that any product that you are selling which does not have a positive margin reduces the profitability of the company is wrong.你销售的产品毛利若为负，就会减少公司的获利，这项假设是错的。This assumption is totally wrong.这项假设大错特错。By the way, do not get a wrong impression that I am recommending to reduce prices when you have excess capacity.顺带一提，不要误以为我是在建议你有剩余产能时，就降低售价。I am not recommending it at all. Ill tell you why.我绝不是提供这项建议，我会告诉你原因。Because in most cases, that I have seen, companies that are doing it, since they do not pay attention that the market is totally segmented they are starting a price war.我看到在大多数的情况下，公司没有注意到市场已经完全被区隔开来，所以他们贸然降价，开启了价格战。If you started a price war everybody looses. Thats the most dangerous thing.如果你开启了价格战，每个人都是输家，这是最危险的举动。So, I am not recommending it at all. 所以我根本不会建议你这么做。At the same time we have to understand - this phrase is wrong. Its not that we are looking for having positive product margin. What we are actually looking is something else.同时我们必须了解，“追求正的产品毛利”，这句话是错的，我们追求的其实是别的东西。We are looking to get reasonable, instead of getting reasonable product margin, actually what we are looking for is that if we do the right decisions at least we covered all the investment and the expenses.我们追求的是合理，而不是合理的产品毛利，实际上，我们追求的是如果做出正确的决策，就足以涵盖所有的投资成本和费用。That is important. 这一点相当重要。Because lets face it, good decision means I still want to meet the goal of the company which is to make money or I do not want to run out of the budget and be bankrupt.我们看一下，好决策意谓着我仍然想要达到公司的目标赚钱、或者是不想因为预算用完而破产。So the real cloud, the real dilemma, is to arrive at good decisions, get enough sales volume, but get also enough to cover the all expenses. Ok?所以真正的冲突图和困境是要做出好决策，获得足够的销售量，但也要足以涵盖所有的费用，好吗？No, not ok, please change it. Ok.不，不好，请稍微改变一下，好吗？Cover at least the companys expenses and investments.至少要能涵盖公司的费用和投资成本。It doesnt change the cloud - not by much.这并没有改变冲突图，没有改变太多。If you look on the cloud now, ok? What you see is, I am still stuck between rock and the har