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The politics of Hurricane SandyIS HURRICANE SANDY capable of altering the election result? The presidential candidates are hunkering down and trying to avoid looking partisan as this big, wet storm heads for the eastern seaboard. But any number of calculations are being made by the campaigns. Plausible arguments are flying, explaining why this storm is bad news, or is it good news, for both sides.In a conference call with reporters on Monday morning, bosses at the campaign headquarters of Barack Obama in Chicago stressed that the president is focused on the storm and governing the country, and noted that he had cancelled events in storm-hit states from Florida to Wisconsin. A well-handled disaster can strengthen an incumbent president (just as a Katrina-level bungle is a political, as well as human disaster).Mitt Romney cancelled events planned for Monday night and Tuesday, citing the need to avoid putting supporters in danger or tying up emergency services. In Virginia, the Romney campaign bus will be delivering storm-relief supplies. The Romney campaign also sent out a notice that it had suspended fundraising emails to the District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia.To be brutal, a certain amount of bad weather on election day helps conservatives in every democracy. In crude terms, car-driving conservative retirees still turn out in driving rain, when bus-taking lower-income workers just back from a night shift are more likely to give rain-soaked polls a miss. School closures are a particular problem for low-income families or single mothers scrambling to find childcare. In this case, the weather is supposed to clear up well ahead of election day, but the impact could be felt in the turnout of early voters.Democrats will perceive that as bad news. The Obama campaign has pinned big hopes on increasing turnout among Obama-supporting sporadic voters, the sort of voters who give mid-term elections a miss but may turn out in presidential years. According to Michael McDonald, an elections expert at George Mason University whom I spoke to last week, this is the precise moment in the election cycle when sporadic voters are most likely to turn out.The very first early voters are those who cannot wait to vote: they are the partisans who could be seen queuing outside polling stations in Ohio or Florida on the first mornings of early voting, like bargain-hunters hitting the sales. Now, several days into early voting and a week from election day, would normally be the moment when less zealous supporters were supposed to be finding a moment to cast a ballot.There are others who believe that Sandy will benefit the president, with the storm freezing the election campaign, and Mr Romneys perceived momentum, in place. In short, nobody knows how it will impact the race.For proof of the uncertainty that reigns just now, I can only cite my favourite campaign email of the last 24 hours, a four-paragraph missive from Mr Romney in which one full paragraph is devoted to asking supporters to bring campaign yard signs indoors before the storm strikes. In high winds they can be dangerous, and cause damage to homes and property, Mr Romney urges.Sensible advice, no doubt, but something in me likes the idea of a multi-billion dollar election juggernaut being halted by visions of a voter impaled then pinned to a wind-lashed lawn by a flying Romney-for-president yard sign.Politics this weekOct 27th 2012 | from the print edition TweetLebanon was on the brink after the Syrian regime was widely blamed for a huge bomb in Beirut that killed Brigadier-General Wissam Hassan, the head of internal security, and seven others. Ten people died in sectarian clashes following the explosion. See articleThe United Nations envoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, said that President Bashar Assads government and most rebel leaders had agreed to abide by a ceasefire during the four-day Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha.In this section Politics this week Business this week KALs cartoon Correction: Swedish MatchReprintsRelated topics Libya Basque Country Argentina Spain European Central BankSudan accused Israel of an air raid on an arms factory in Khartoum, the Sudanese capital. Israel did not comment, though it is known to blame Sudan for allegedly letting arms pass through en route to Gaza.Irans president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, was barred from visiting Evin prison in Tehran, the capital, where a close aide is imprisoned. Some saw this as a sign of tension among the countrys leaders.Forces loyal to the Libyan government took control of most of Bani Walid, a former stronghold of Muammar Qaddafi, while pockets of resistance were reported on the towns outskirts.Into the lions denMario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, launched a charm offensive in Germany to persuade sceptical politicians about the merits of the ECBs bond-buying scheme. Speaking to members of the Bundestag, Mr Draghi argued that it was necessary to save the euro and gave assurances that it would not lead to runaway inflation. One politician praised him as “a Prussian from southern Europe”.Mariano Rajoy, Spains prime minister, was buoyed up by a regional election in Galicia, where his ruling Peoples Party extended its majority as the Socialists vote collapsed. Mr Rajoy claimed the result was evidence of broad support for his austerity programme. Protests continued outside parliament.Meanwhile, nationalist parties in Spains Basque country gained seats in a regional election. Emboldened by the result, the nationalists may push for a referendum on independence, which would further complicate any potential bail-out request from Spain. An election in Catalonia on November 25th already threatens to turn into a referendum on independence there. See articleTo the relief of many, Silvio Berlusconi said he would not run again for prime minister. His People of Liberty party will choose a new leader in December. See articleAn Italian judge sentenced six scientists and a public official to six years in jail on manslaughter charges for misleading the public about the risk of an earthquake days before one hit LAquila in April 2009, killing 309 people. He also ordered them to pay compensation to the families of 29 victims who died because they heeded the scientists advice not to leave their homes. Many observers fear the verdict will inhibit public discussion of scientific risks. See articleThe vital centreAmericas presidential candidates discussed foreign policy at their final debate. As in their previous two encounters Mitt Romney ditched many of the severely conservative positions he took on the campaign trail. Polls suggested that Barack Obama won the debate, but the race is close with the momentum still swinging towards the challenger. See articleOne endorsement that Mr Romney didnt get was from the Salt Lake Tribune. Utahs biggest newspaper reasoned that although he is the states “favourite adopted son”, his “servile courtship of the tea party” and failure “to share specifics of his radical plan” meant that it would back Mr Obama (as it did in 2008).The Republicans chances of winning the Senate were hurt by more remarks on women and rape from one of their candidates, this time in Indiana. Richard Mourdock, who defeated Richard Lugar in Mays primary, said that a pregnancy that resulted from rape was “something that God intended to happen”.Breach of the peaceIn Myanmar the authorities imposed a night-time curfew in parts of western Rakhine state, after violence flared again between Rohingya Muslims and ethnic Rakhine Buddhists. Four people were killed and 1,000 houses burned down. More than 100 have been killed this year, mostly Rohingyas, with little official condemnation. See articleThe prime minister of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, came under yet more pressure to call a general election following the resignation of his justice minister, who had been in the job for less than a month. A magazine article alleged that Keishu Tanaka had ties with the yakuza, the Japanese mafia.Shintaro Ishihara, the 80-year-old governor of Tokyo who provoked a row with China by seeking to buy disputed islands on behalf of the metropolitan government, announced that he is stepping down to set up a party to run for parliament in the next elections. He is the latest maverick to seek to capitalise on voter dissatisfaction with Japans two main political parties.A court in Cambodia ordered the deportation of a Chinese factory supervisor after she defaced two photographs of the late former king, Norodom Sihanouk. She had grown impatient at how garment workers had broken off from their tasks to admire the portraits. In her defence, she said she did not know who was depicted.Margin of errorChiles president, Sebastin Piera, announced the creation of an independent statistics agency. The move followed opposition claims that the government had manipulated a survey concerning the poverty rate in the country.Argentina evacuated 281 crew members from a naval frigate that is being detained in Ghana. A hedge fund that owns defaulted Argentine debt obtained a legal order to hold the vessel, a 50-year-old tall ship. Argentina says it will not pay the $20m court bond the fund demands.Fidel Castro, the former president of Cuba, published an article in the state newspaper and released recent photos of himself in response to rumours that he was near death.The choiceAll elections get called the most important for decades. This one really is: two very different paths for the future are on offerOct 6th 2012 | from the print edition Tweet“HOWS that hopey-changey stuff working out for you?” Sarah Palin, the Republican vice-presidential candidate at the last election, memorably asked in 2010, mocking Barack Obamas airy campaign slogans of two years before. On November 6th many voters will be asking themselves more or less the same question, when they decide whether or not to award Mr Obama a second term. The slogans have become no weightier over the past four yearsMr Obama now wants to go “Forward”; his rival, Mitt Romney, prefers to “Believe in America”but the stakes are, if anything, higher. The gulf that separates the policies of the two candidates and their parties seems wider than in any election in living memory.Mr Romney wants a much smaller government (except when it comes to throwing Americas weight around overseas, where he wants to boost defence spending from 3.4% of GDP to a target of 4%). To that end, he proposes to lower taxes, dramatically cut spending on everything other than the armed forces, adopt a balanced-budget amendment, repeal Mr Obamas health-care reforms and overhaul big “entitlement” programmes such as Medicare, Medicaid and Social Securitythe government schemes for, respectively, health-care for the elderly and the poor, and pensions. Even food stamps, the last refuge of Americas poorest, would be on the chopping block. Mr Obama, who recently said that “the country doesnt need radical changes,” opposes all those things. He, too, promises to reduce the deficitbut without reaching for a cleaver. By keeping tax rates stable for most and raising them for the rich, he says he can reduce the public debt while spending more on infrastructure and education, among other things.In this section The choice Gridlock central Trillion-dollar questions Defining the state Election fever Class warfare In or out? Boom times, not green A world of troubles Arms and the men Intelligent sentences Culture wars, again Four more weeksReprintsRelated topics Politics Government and politics Elections and voting United States Barack ObamaIn addition to this basic dispute about the size of the state, the pair disagree on just about everything else. There are the typical fissures on “values”: Mr Romney wants to ban gay marriage and, in almost all cases, abortion, although neither step is in the presidents power. Mr Obama is resolutely pro-choice and, after much dithering, now says he supports gay marriage. Immigration is another fault-line. Mr Obama has issued a reprieve for certain illegal immigrants living in fear of deportation, and says he would like to do more, if only Congress would go along. Mr Romney wants to make life so miserable for all those in the country without permission that they will “self-deport”, although he also pledges to expand legal immigration.Mr Romney is also a foreign-policy hawk. He complains that Mr Obama spends too much time apologising for his country. He promises to cow countries that have crossed America, including China, Iran, Russia and Venezuela, and to bolster its allies, chief among them Israel. Mr Obama dismisses his rival as inexperienced in such matters, and his talk as “blustering and blundering”. Recent gaffes by the Republican candidate have tended to reinforce the presidents argument.Yet another stark difference concerns global warming. Mr Obama tried to get Congress to curb greenhouse-gas emissions through a cap-and-trade scheme. When that failed, his administration continued to pursue regulation to the same end under the Clean Air Act. Mr Romney wants to amend the act to make that impossible, and says the causes and effects of global warming are too uncertain to justify expensive remedies.Its still the economyThere is plenty for voters to mull on, in other words. They seem to have been finding the decision wrenching. Most polls have shown the two candidates within a whisker of one another for months, although Mr Obama has recently showed signs of pulling away. Americans do not often turf out sitting presidents: over the past 70 years, only threeGerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George Bush seniorhave been shown the door after one term.Conversely, a weak economy is normally thought to be the biggest threat to an incumbent, and it has been over 70 years since unemployment was so high at the time of an election. Mr Obama himself said in 2009 that if he failed to sort out the economic mess he had inherited, his presidency would be a one-term proposition.That has given Mr Romney hope, and a strategy. He has relentlessly criticised Mr Obama for his poor stewardship of the economy. The presidents stimulus, he says, has yielded lots of debt but no growth; median incomes are down (by 4.6% since mid-2009); his health-care reforms are burdening small businesses; environmental regulations are strangling Americas energy output. Mr Romney has seized on a remark the president made, “You didnt build that!”making the point that even the most successful of entrepreneurs relied in some measure on government services to build their businessesto suggest that Mr Obama is hostile to entrepreneurship itself. The president may have inherited a grim outlook in 2008, the argument runs, but his policies have made it worse.This attack resonates. Big majorities of Americans tell pollsters that the country is heading in the wrong direction. One of the few realms of policy on which voters have tended to rate Mr Romney more highly than Mr Obama is the economy, though recently that has shifted slightly. Crucially for Mr Romney, that economic discontent is shared by Americans of all stripes: young and old, rich and poor, male and female, white and minority.Mr Obama has tried to counter this by highlighting policies he has championed to help each of those slices of the population. Women, he says, are better off thanks to an act he signed making it easier for them to sue for equal pay, and thanks to clauses in his health-care reforms obliging insurers to offer at no extra cost preventive measures such as breast-cancer screenings and, controversially, birth control. Hispanics are reminded of the presidents reprieve for “dreamers”illegal immigrants brought to America as children. To young people Mr Obama emphasises his expansion of grants and low-interest loans for students. To the old he harps on about his commitment to preserving Medicare in its present form, rather than adopting the sort of voucher scheme Mr Romney proposes. To blue-collar workers, he is the saviour of the car industry. To one and all he bangs on about ordering the raid in which Osama bin Laden was killed.But the presidents main strategy has been to demonise his opponent. Mr Obama and his backers have painted Mr Romney, a former boss of Bain Capital, as a corporate parasite who sucked big profits out of businesses even as workers were sacked and balance-sheets buckled. They have questioned his failure to release more than two years of tax returns. They suggest that Mr Romney as president would do much more for the rich and undeserving than for the middle-class and struggling.The presidents main strategy has been to demonise his opponentThis, too, is an attack which resonates with voters. Mr Romney, with a personal fortune of some $250m (and at least one confidant says much more), is the wealthiest presidential candidate in generations. He is prone to glib remarks that accentuate the gulf between him and most Americans: how he knows several owners of car-racing teams, or how his wife drives “a couple of Cadillacs”. He is often wooden and unconvincing on the campaign trail, with an unfortunate habit of reciting the lyrics of patriotic songs in a sombre monotone. In polls most respondents assume that Mr Obama has a better grasp of the sort of problems they face. A majority usually express an unfavourable opinion of Mr Romneyan unprecedented deficit of goodwill for a challenger this close to election day.The election, in other words, is a race between limping candidates. Both men have many admirable qualities, to be sure. Mr Obama still gives a mean speech, and his story remains inspirational. But his knack for conjuring a