HR PLANNING.doc

CHAPTER TWO: HR PLANNING 第二章人力资源规划CHAPTER OBJECTIVES本章目标WHAT IS HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING?第一节人力资源规划概述1.Definition（规划定义）2. Content for Human Resource Planning（规划内容）3. Relations Between HRPand other HRM Activities（规划与其他HRM活动的关系）THE PROCESS OF HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING第二节人力资源规划过程1.Scanning goal and collecting information2.Forcasting Demand3. Forecasting Supply4.Balancing Supply and Demand5. Evaluation of HR planningFORCASTING TECHNICS第三节人力资源规划的预测技术1. Demand Forecasting(需求预测)2Supply forecasting(供给预测)3.External Labor SupplyHOW TO BALANCING DEMAND & SUPPLY第四节人力资源供求调节1 Staff/skills shortages2 Staff surplusesEXERCISES作业Reference参考文献CHAPTER OBJECTIVES（本章目标）After you study this chapter, you will be able to: 1.Explain the reason and role of human resource planning activities. 2.Identify the relationship between strategic goals. 3.To know the four key elements of HR planning model. 4.Define how HRM practices are developed in response to oversupply and undersupply. 5. Describe three kinds of demand forecast technique 6. Describe three kinds of demand forecast technique WHAT IS HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING?（第一节人力资源规划概述）CASE: “How can HRM respond to the opportunity?” BEC is a Software Company in Beijing with 200 employees. Once on a routine meeting for all managers, Li Lin, the Marketing Manager said “ Two days ago I obtained a sizable order and the customer hoped we could execute the order within one year.” After hearing this news, all managers were very happy except HR Manager. HR Manager said: “ I am worried, it is difficult for our employees to produce the designated products within the contracted time. We need to train our employees and to recruit a few people who will have the skills in this particular line.” The above mini-case shows us that when strategy or operation objectives of an organization changes due to a fast-changing environment, HRM will need to solve some problems such as: a. How about the cooperate structure? b. How many employees we need in the future? c. What kind of new knowledge, skills do they need to cope with new procedure and system? d. Do they need training? e.Do we need to recruit people from outside? And if yes and when?f.How can we design an attractive rewarding plan to arract people from outside?How do managers cope with all these changes? How do they make certain they have the right people at the right time doing the right things for their organizations? Dramatic shifts in the market require that managers become more involved in HRP, since such changes affect not only employee recruitment but also methods of employee selection, training, compensation, and motivation. HRP becomes especially critical when organizations consider mergers, relocation of plants, downsizing, or the closing of operating facilities. 1.Definition（规划定义）Today, more than ever, success in business is dependent on being able to react quickly to opportunities that arise, and economic uncertainty. Predicting future needs for human resources and using existing resources effectively are the basic issues addressed in this chapter. Human resource planning (人力资源规划) has been defined as a process of scientific anticipating and analyzing the future supply（供给） of and demand （需求）for human resources in the organization operating in a changeable environment and then formulating a relevant policy and taking some measure so as to have the right people at the right time for the right place to achieve the organization and individual goal. In addition,planning is a technique to facilitate the acquisition, utilization, development and retention of a companys human resources. These resources are considered to be the organisations most valuable asset and, therefore, they need to be deployed with the maximum efficiency and effectiveness.In terms of period,HRPcan be divided into short-term,mid-term and long term HRP.2. Content for Human Resource Planning（规划内容） In terms of cintent,HRP can be devided into two levels -general planning (总体规划)and specific business plan(业务规划).It includes general HRP,deploy plan,retirement plan,employee replenishing plan,promotion plan,training plan,career plan,performance &rewarding plan,labour relations plan and HR bugeting plan.In narrow sense,HRP only indicates employee replenishing plan. But in broader sense,it includes all kinds of HR planning.3. Relations Between HRPand other HRM Activities（规划与其他HRM活动的关系） a.HRP has to work for corport strategy. b. Both job analysis and performance appraisal lay a foundation for HRP formulation. c.HRP lays a basis for recruitment,training and compensation management. More effective and efficient use of people at work: Human resource planning should precede all other HRM activities. It is difficult to envision how an organization could efficiently recruit, select, or train employees without advance planning. In addition, efficient use of those human resources already employed by a company can really be achieved only through careful planning activities. More satisfied and better developed employees: Employees who work for organizations that use good human resource planning systems have a better chance to participate in planning their own careers and to share in training and development. Thus, they are likely to feel that their talents are important to the employer, and they have a better chance to utilize those talents. This situation often leads to greater satisfaction among employees. 4. Roles of Human Resource Planning The prime role of HRP is to ensure that an organization has the right quantity and quality of employees doing the right things in the right place at the right time and at the right cost to the organization.In achieving this, HRP has a number of more specific roles as follows: To facilitate the effective use of people To foresee the future insufficent and surplus of people To facilitate the acquisition and retention of the employees required by the organization To identify the need for training（培训）and development To assess current employment costs in relation to other organizational costs ( wage costs account for over 60% of an organisations expenses) HRP plays a vital role in the formulation of strategy within the organization. An organization cannot function without people; thus the human resource planning activities become all the more important because they forecast how many employees are required to carry out the organisations activities and help it to meet customer demand for its products or services. HR directors are usually members of the board and, as such, they have a specific role to play in the formulation of HR objective, policies, procedures, plans and strategy.THE PROCESS OF HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING（第二节人力资源规划过程）The process of HR planning is complex, but in its simplest form it centers on the following main activities: 1.Scanning goal and collecting information1. The major external forces influencing the organization such as: (1) Economic factors, including general and regional conditions(2) Competitive trends, including new processes, services, and innovations(3) Technological changes, including new products and substitutes(4) Political and legislative issues, including laws and administrative rulingsIn addition to scanning the external environment, internal environments should be scanned such as strengthens and weakness. Then strategy goal or operation direction must scanned to see whether there is any changes or shifts occur. Then we have to collect the information such as job analysis,current employees condition(including training and education background)2.Forcasting DemandIt entails determining the numbers and quality （素质） (knowledge, skills and attitudes) of staff that will be needed at any given time in the future.Forecasting demand involves in determining the numbers and attributes （素质） (knowledge, skills and attitudes) of staff that will be needed at any given time in order to realize the strategic goal. The purpose is to estimate not only how many but also what kinds of employee will be needed. 3. Forecasting SupplyA forecast of anticipated changes in the supply of labour-this takes account of anticipated losses from the existing workforce and the external supply of suitable staff from sources outside the organization.Forecasting supply includes internal and external aspects. Internal supply forecasting should first make the inventory of(盘点)the existing workforce and then forecasting future supply condition by doing training adjusting the existing employee external supply of suitable staff from sources outside the organization. External forecasting should be depends on internal supply condition Shortage of staff or of skills: if a business employ fewer staff than it requires, it is unlikely to be able to meet its production and sales targets, machinery and stock will be unused, and its trading profit is likely to be reduced. Surplus of staff: a business which finds itself employing more staff than it needs will incur wage and salary costs which cannot be funded from employing such staff on productive forms of activity. 4.Balancing Supply and DemandBy comparing demand and supply forecast, we can obtain net demand for human resources .The action is required to bridge the gap between the demand forecast and the supply forecast This action may determine the activities to be undertaken under several personnel policies.If the net demand is positive, we may consider recruiting, training and adjusting the current employees. If the net demand is negative ,downsizing is necessary5. Evaluation of HR planningOnly when the operational plans of the HRM department are evaluated can the organization know if the HR strategies were effective. If a company has the problem that some vacancies cant be filled for sometime, we assume that HR planning is ineffective. Exhibit below presents a series of questions the HRM department can use to assess its overall contribution to successful implementation of the HR planning process. 1. Does the firm use strategic planning concepts? 2. Is the HR department involved in overall strategic planning for the organization? 3. Are company objectives and goals measurable and well communicated to everyone in the organization? 4. Do managers delegate authority to departments following strategic plans? 5. Do managers at all hierarchical levels plan effectively and continually?6. Is the organizations structure shaped so that all departments are involved in the strategic planning process? 7. Is employee morale acceptable? 8. Are job duties, specifications, and descriptions clear? 9. Is employee turnover and absenteeism low? 10. Are organizational reward and control mechanisms effective and tied to overall strategic goals and objectives? 11. Are all units, departments, employees, managers, etc., working toward the same, congruent goals? FORCASTING TECHNICS（第三节人力资源规划的预测技术）1. Demand Forecasting(需求预测)Demand forecasting involves predicting the number and types of people the organization will need at some future point in time. There are two general approaches to demand forecasting: statistical and judgmental. Trend Analysis（趋势分析）: The future demand for human resources is predicted on the basis of past trends regarding a business factor. An example is shown as follow:19931994199519961997Sales (thousands of dollars) 10,20087007800950010,000Number of employees 240200165215Ratio analysis（比率分析） is the process of determining future HR demand by computing an exact ratio between the specific business factor and the number of employees needed. Lets suppose, for example, that a hospital has 10,000 patients and 500 nurses the ratio is thus 10,000:500 or 20:1. This ratio means that for every 20patients it needs one nurse. If the hospital anticipates an increase for next year of 1000 patients, Haw many additional nurses need to hire? Like trend analysis, ratio analysis assumes that productivity remains the same. Regression analysis（回归分析） is similar to the above which are based on the relationship between a business factor and workforce size. This method is more statistically sophisticated, an organization would first draw a scatter diagram depicting the relationship between the business factor and workforce size. It would then calculate a regression line-a line that cuts right through the center of the pints on the scatter diagram. By observing the regression line, one can see how many employees are needed at each value of the business factor. The Manager Estimate(经理预测法)The least mathematically sophisticated approach to employment planning -yet the one most frequently used-is for managers to forcast demands on the basis of their experience and guess.They may do this by thinking about past employment level,and asking about future needs. There are two kinds of manager estimate :the top-down and the down-top.The Delphi Technique(德尔菲法) It is a set of procedures originally developed by the Rand Corporation(兰德 公司) in the late 1940s.Its purpose is to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion of a group of experts.This technique consists of intensive questioning of each expert through a series of questionnaires to obtain data that can be used to make forecasts. The procedures are designed to avoid direct meetings between the experts in order to maximize independent thinking.A person who serves as intermediary sends the questionnaries to the experts and asks them ,for example, their best estimates of employment needs for the coming year.The intermediary prepares a summary of the results,calculating the average response .Then the experts are asked to estimate the number again.Usually,the response tend to narrow down. The average number is then used as the forecast.2Supply forecasting(供给预测)Markov Analysis is a two-step process. In the first step, the organization groups its positions by title. The groupings should reflect levels of positions across which employees may be expected to advance. For instance, the HRM group might include the job titles of HR assistant, HR manager, and HR director. The secretarial group might include secretarial clerk, principal secretary, senior secretary, and administrative assistant. The second step is to estimate, within each job group, how many of its current employees will remain in their positions during the planning period, how many will move to another position and how many will leave the organization. These predictions are based, in part, on past mobility trends. Hypothetical Markov Analysis for a Retail CompanySkill inventories （技能清单法） itcan also be prepared that list each employees education, past work experience, vocational interests, specific abilities and skills, compensation history, and job tenure. So skill inventories are used to show employee capability featureWhen data are gathered on managers, these inventories are called management inventories. Both skill and management inventoriesbroadly referred to as talent inventoriescan be used to develop employee replacement charts（调配图）. 3.External Labor Supply When an organization lacks an internal supply of employees for promotions, or when it is staffing entry-level positions, managers must consider the external supply of labor. Many factors influence labor supply including(a)Macro economics and demographic changes in the population（b）Local labor market condition(c) Line economic condition .HOW TO BALANCING DEMAND & SUPPLY（第四节人力资源供求调节）Once the company has analysed its position in terms of the current level of staff and the likely number it will need to secure the continuation of its operations, it will determine whether it has a surplus or deficiency of staff and/or skills. If demand for the companys goods/products or services falls and leads to a drop in output, a surplus of staff may be identified. 1 Staff/skills shortagesWhen there is a shortage of staff and/or skills the adjustment should make provisions along the following lines: Part-time recruitmentincreasing the number of part-time staff, using sub-contractors and temporary staff Getting more from existing staffthrough offering employees the opportunity to work overtime, and extending temporary or fixedterm contracts. Subcontract a portion of work Promoting existing staff-integrated with appraisal and development schemes. Redeployment of staff transfers may be appropriate, particularly where surpluses exist in one part of the organization but not another. Training: specifying numbers of staff in various categories who will require training, what kinds of courses are required, and resources needed. Through training we can improve the productivity of present work force. structure &job redesigndifficulties in staffing may sometimes be overcome by redesigning department,jobs. External recruitmentundertaking specific recruitment and selection for the vacancies identified, specifying the numbers and required. 2 Staff surpluses When there is a surplus of labour the plan will make provisions as follows: Increasing sales volume Improving Product quality Natural wastageas workers leave they are not replaced. Redeployment/transfersemployers have a statutory obligation to seek alternative employment for employees whose jobs are threatened by redundancy. Early retirementsstaff inventories can indicate the numbers of staff members due to retire at normal dates and the potential number who might consider retiring earlier. This can be an expensive way of reducing staff numbers