新贸易保护措施论文多边贸易体制下新贸易保护措施对中.doc

新贸易保护措施论文：多边贸易体制下新贸易保护措施对中国外贸影响研究【中文摘要】1948年关税及贸易总协定(GATT)的正式签署标志着多边贸易体制的建立,在该体制下,成员国可以对各国(地区)贸易政策进行国际协调。其载体从关贸总协定发展到世界贸易组织(WTO),使得各国关税大幅下降,大大加快了贸易自由化进程。然而自由是相对的,各国为了保护本国产业利益,也从未停止过对贸易保护措施的使用,且伴随着自由化进程不断转变着保护方式。由于多边贸易体制下对关税水平的约束,各国贸易保护纷纷转向以非关税的形式,如反倾销、反补贴、绿色壁垒、技术壁垒等措施,这里把不同于关税形式的保护措施称为“新贸易保护措施”。中国加入WTO后,对外贸易快速增长,长期的贸易顺差使得各国纷纷针对中国出口产品采取新型保护措施。据WTO统计,中国已成为各种新贸易保护措施的“最大受害国”。2008年金融危机爆发,贸易保护再次盛行,我国的出口贸易受到重创。因此,研究新贸易保护措施、分析其对中国外贸的影响对制定合理的贸易政策、改善我国出口现状具有很大的理论指导及现实意义。木文即是在此背景下进行研究,主要分三个部分进行阐述：第一部分简单介绍贸易保护理论及新贸易保护措施的形式及特征,尤其是金融危机背景下的新特征。第二部分则对贸易保护的形成机制及其经济效应进行阐述,主要从供求和博弈角度分析了贸易保护产生机制,并通过大国条件下的一般均衡重点介绍对我国影响较大的反倾销、技术壁垒、保障措施这三大措施的经济效应,得出这三种措施对出口国的损失都较大。第三部分引用大量数据,重点介绍入世以来我国前三大主要贸易伙伴欧盟、美国、日本对我国实施的新贸易保护措施的情况,总结这些措施的国别分布及产品类别分布；在此基础上使用引力模型对我国出口贸易的影响进行定量说明：最后从制度、出口结构以及市场开拓三方面提出中国应对新贸易保护措施的对策和建议。本文在体系构建及资料整理上较为完善,且使用模型进行定量说明有一定的创新性：但本文还存在着不足,如模型并未跳出老框架,且受数据获得限制并未从量上表示出具体影响程度,因此,就模型本身还有待进一步完善。【英文摘要】It is the official sign of general agreement on tariffs and trade in 1948 that marks the establishment of the multilateral trading system (MTS). In this system, members can make international coordination of trade policies from different countries. Its carrier develops from GATT to WTO, which greatly declines the world tariff level and accelerates the process of trade liberalization. However, its far from real freedom. As to protect their own industrial interests, different countries adopt different trade protection measures. The forms of these measures often turn from tariff to non-tariff protection under the restraint of MTS, such as anti-dumping、countervailing、green barrier、technical barrier.Our foreign trade grows rapidly and makes long-term trade surplus after we become a member of WTO, which makes foreign countries adopt kinds of new protection measures. According to WTO, China has become the biggest victim of new trade protection measures. Chinas export trade had been greatly hit especially after prevailing protectionism caused by 2008 financial crisis. Therefore, it is necessary to make a research on the effects of new trade protection measures to our export trade.In this context, I make analysis of this topic from four angles. First, the paper introduces various theories of trade protection and its new forms and features, especially the features under financial crisis. Second, it describes the formation mechanism of trade protection and its economic effects. The formation mechanism is mainly from the perspective of supply and demand and game theory. The economic effects involve anti-dumping、technical barrier and safeguard measures which do great harm to our exports. Third, by using large amounts of data, the article mainly states the current situation of the measures which are adept by our top three trading partnersEuropean union, United states, Japan. It summarizes the country distribution and product category of measures. Then, the paper makes quantitative explanation by gravity model. Finally, it suggests three methods to deal with the new measures of trade protection from system, export structure and marketing.My paper has done a lot in system construction and material processing, and the using of gravity model is quite innovative. But its still not good enough, the model is based on old framework and cant figure up specific data of the effects to our export trade due to the data limitation. So, the model remains to be further improved.【关键词】新贸易保护措施 出口贸易 引力模型 多边贸易体制【英文关键词】New measures of trade protection Export trade Gravity model Multilateral trading system【目录】多边贸易体制下新贸易保护措施对中国外贸影响研究摘要6-7Abstract7第1章 绪论10-161.1 研究背景及意义10-111.2 国内外现状研究11-131.3 本文的研究思路与主要内容13-141.4 本文的创新点与不足14-16第2章 贸易保护理论及措施16-262.1 贸易保护理论16-192.2 多边贸易体制下的新贸易保护措施19-262.2.1 相关概念界定19-202.2.2 新贸易保护措施简介20-222.2.3 新贸易保护措施发展趋势22-232.2.4 金融危机下保护措施的新特征23-26第3章 新贸易保护措施的经济学分析26-333.1 新贸易保护措施的形成机制26-283.1.1 经济供求分析26-273.1.2 博弈分析:”囚徒困境”27-283.2 各贸易保护措施的经济效应28-333.2.1 反倾销措施的经济效应29-303.2.2 技术性贸易壁垒的经济效应30-313.2.3 保障措施的经济效应31-33第4章 新贸易保护措施对中国外贸的影响33-524.1 现状及原因分析33-434.1.1 主要贸易伙伴的贸易壁垒体系33-384.1.2 我国出口贸易遭遇新贸易保护现状38-424.1.3 中国外贸频繁遭遇贸易保护原因42-434.2 新贸易保护措施对外贸影响定量分析43-494.2.1 模型设定43-444.2.2 数据处理44-484.2.3 模型回归及结果分析48-494.3 新贸易保护措施对出口的影响