第四讲用实验方法进行经济学研究20111121.ppt

第四讲、运用实验方法进行经济学研究主讲人：陈叶烽（北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院）2011年12月2日四川成都（欢迎讨论，lengggone）,西南财经大学实验经济学短期课程“实验的设计和具体操作”专题讲座,讲解内容,一、实验经济学方法论的争议二、实验经济学能做什么？三、在国内进行实验研究的优劣点分析四、具体实验研究案例展示之公平的本质研究（结合11月29日听课师生作为被试参与的实验，需实验完成后补充更新此部分PPT）五、具体实验研究案例展示之人类合作之谜研究（结合11月30日听课师生作为被试参与的实验，需实验完成后补充更新此部分PPT）,一、实验经济学的方法论争议,1.归根到底经济学研究人的决策行为，但是行为决策如何观察得到数据呢？一手数据还是二手数据？：一手数据更容易被接受蔡洪滨AER论文田野实验柯荣住关于信任的文章：调查数据李实老师的调查问卷其二就是LAB2.关于实验经济学的方法论争议：学生作为被试是否有代表性？是否反映了其真实的世界行为？等等3.为何实验论文很少用到计量，或者很少用到复杂的计量方法？,支持派VS质疑派,质疑派：Henrichetal.（2010）TheweirdestpeopleintheworldLevitandList(2007)WhatDoLaboratoryExperimentsMeasuringSocialPreferencesRevealAbouttheRealWorld?支持派：FalkandHeckman(2009)LabexperimentsareamajorsourceofknowledgeinthesocialsciencesCrosonandGchter(2010)Thescienceofexperimentaleconomics其他如Simth(2010)Gchter(2010)等等,实验经济学方法论的争议举例1,实验经济学方法论的争议举例2,作为一门成熟学科的标志1：实验经济学经典文献的被引次数,FehrandSchmidt（1999）QuarterlyjournalofEconomicsAtheoryoffairness,competition,andcooperation4160Rabin(1993)AmericanEconomicReviewIncorporatingfairnessintogametheoryandeconomics2759KahnemanandTversky(1979)EconometricaProspecttheory:Ananalysisofdecisionunderrisk19423HoltandLaury(2002)AmericanEconomicReviewRiskaversionandincentiveeffects1369Gthet.al(1982)JournalofEconomicBehaviourandOrganizationsAnexperimentalanalysisofultimatumbargaining1847Berget.al(1995)GamesandEconomicBehaviorTrust,reciprocity,andsocialhistory1838Ledyard(1995)TheHandbookof.ExperimentalEconomicsPublicgoods:Asurveyofexperimentalresearch1915,作为一门成熟学科的标志2：实验经济学的学术共同体,学术团体:ESAusingcontrolledexperimentstolearnabouteconomicbehavior（1986VernonSmith）实验经济学期刊：ExperimentalEconomics（1998）学术会议：经济学实验室,作为一门成熟学科的标志3：实验研究在顶级期刊的发表数（以AER2011年5期期刊为例）,Vol.101,No.1,February2011IsTigerWoodsLossAverse?PersistentBiasintheFaceofExperience,Competition,andHighStakes(pp.129-57)DevinG.PopeandMauriceE.SchweitzerTheEvolutionofCooperationinInfinitelyRepeatedGames:ExperimentalEvidence(pp.411-29)PedroDalBandGuillaumeR.FrchetteVol.101,No.2,April2011ReferencePointsandEffortProvision(pp.470-92)JohannesAbeler,ArminFalk,LorenzGoetteandDavidHuffmanContractsasReferencePointsExperimentalEvidence(pp.493-525)ErnstFehr,OliverHartandChristianZehnderTheEconomicsofCredenceGoods:AnExperimentontheRoleofLiability,Verifiability,Reputation,andCompetition(pp.526-55)UweDulleck,RudolfKerschbamerandMatthiasSutterPerformancePayandMultidimensionalSorting:Productivity,Preferences,andGender(pp.556-90)ThomasDohmenandArminFalk,作为一门成熟学科的标志3：实验研究在顶级期刊的发表数（以AER2011年5期期刊为例）续2,Vol.101,No.2,April2011HeterogeneityinRiskyChoiceBehaviorinaBroadPopulation(pp.664-94)Hans-MartinvonGaudecker,ArthurvanSoestandErikWengstromTheRichDomainofUncertainty:SourceFunctionsandTheirExperimentalImplementation(pp.695-723)MohammedAbdellaoui,AurlienBaillon,LaetitiaPlacidoandPeterP.WakkerSearchDynamicsinConsumerChoiceunderTimePressure:AnEye-TrackingStudy(pp.900-926)ElenaReutskaja,RosemarieNagel,ColinF.CamererandAntonioRangelCoordinationinthePresenceofAssetMarkets(pp.927-47)ShimonKogan,AnthonyM.KwasnicaandRobertoA.WeberReal-TimeSearchintheLaboratoryandtheMarket(pp.948-74)MetaBrown,ChristopherJ.FlinnandAndrewSchotterCheckmate:ExploringBackwardInductionamongChessPlayers(pp.975-90)StevenD.Levitt,JohnA.ListandSallyE.Sadoff,作为一门成熟学科的标志3：实验研究在顶级期刊的发表数（以AER2011年5期期刊为例）续3,Vol.101,No.2,February2011TheWillingnesstoPayWillingnesstoAcceptGap,theEndowmentEffect,SubjectMisconceptions,andExperimentalProceduresforElicitingValuations:Comment(pp.991-1011)AndreaIsoni,GrahamLoomesandRobertSugdenTheWillingnesstoPayWillingnesstoAcceptGap,theEndowmentEffect,SubjectMisconceptions,andExperimentalProceduresforElicitingValuations:Reply(pp.1012-28)CharlesR.PlottandKathrynZeilerStationaryConceptsforExperimental2X2Games:Comment(pp.1029-40)ChristophBrunner,ColinF.CamererandJacobK.GoereeStationaryConceptsforExperimental2X2Games:Reply(pp.1041-44)ReinhardSelten,ThorstenChmuraandSebastianJ.Goerg,作为一门成熟学科的标志3：实验研究在顶级期刊的发表数（以AER2011年5期期刊为例）续4,Vol.101,No.3,May2011DoResidentialCustomersRespondtoHourlyPrices?EvidencefromaDynamicPricingExperiment(pp.83-87)FrankA.WolakUsingFieldExperimentsinEnvironmentandResourceEconomicsDoesMarketExperienceEliminateMarketAnomalies?TheCaseofExogenousMarketExperience(pp.313-17)JohnA.ListThePersistenceofTreatmentEffectswithNorm-BasedPolicyInstruments:EvidencefromaRandomizedEnvironmentalPolicyExperiment(pp.318-22)PaulJ.Ferraro,JuanJoseMirandaandMichaelK.PriceCanTailoredCommunicationsMotivateEnvironmentalVolunteers?ANaturalFieldExperiment(pp.323-28)OmarAl-UbaydliandMinLeeUsingArtefactualFieldExperimentstoLearnabouttheIncentivesforSustainableForestUseinDevelopingEconomies(pp.329-33)MaartenVoors,ErwinBulte,AndreasKontoleon,JohnA.ListandTyTurleyTeacherMobilityResponsestoWageChanges:EvidencefromaQuasi-naturalExperiment(pp.460-65)TorbergFalchSocialPreferencesandFairnessNormsasInformalInstitutions:ExperimentalEvidence(pp.509-13)PamelaJakiela,作为一门成熟学科的标志3：实验研究在顶级期刊的发表数（以AER2011年5期期刊为例）续5,Vol.101,No.4,June2011Participation(pp.1211-37)GaryCharnessandMartinDufwenbergFaceValue(pp.1497-1513)CatherineC.EckelandRaganPetrieGroupSizeandIncentivestoContribute:ANaturalExperimentatChineseWikipedia(pp.1601-15)Xiaoquan(Michael)ZhangandFengZhuCorrigendum:PsychologicalPressureinCompetitiveEnvironments:EvidencefromaRandomizedNaturalExperiment(page1636)JoseApesteguiaandIgnacioPalacios-HuertaVol.101,No.5,August2011AnExperimentalComponentIndexfortheCPI:FromAnnualComputerDatatoMonthlyDataonOtherGoods(pp.1707-38)TimEricksonandArielPakesVol.101,No.6,October2011NudgingFarmerstoUseFertilizer:TheoryandExperimentalEvidencefromKenya(pp.2350-90)EstherDuflo,MichaelKremerandJonathanRobinsonThePotentialofSocialIdentityforEquilibriumSelection(pp.2562-89)RoyChenandYanChen,二、实验经济学能做什么？,引子GaryCharness,NinghuaDu,andChun-LeiYang，2010，“TrustandTrustworthinessReputationsinanInvestmentGame”,GamesandEconomicBehavior,实验经济学能做什么？,检验经济学理论检验制度或政策的影响测度人们的偏好：时间偏好，公平偏好，风险偏好等等为构建新的经济学理论提供经验证据,检验经济学理论示例,检验制度或政策的影响示例,测度人们的偏好示例,实验经济学的研究主题（无法穷尽）,市场均衡拍卖实验行为博弈实验社会偏好理论风险决策信任问题合作问题田野实验社会距离实验经济学方法论问题其他如资本市场实验，财政税收等应用性实验,MartinKocher,SheheryarBanuri,JosephTao-yiWang,市场均衡,E.H.Chamberlin(1948),“AnExperimentalImperfectMarket,”JournalofPoliticalEconomy,95108.VernonSmith(1962),“AnExperimentalStudyofCompetitiveMarketBehavior,”JournalofPoliticalEconomy,70,111-137.CharlesPlottandShyamSunder(1982),“EfficiencyofExperimentalSecurityMarketswithInsiderInformation:AnApplicationofRationalExpectationsModels,”JournalofPoliticalEconomy,90,663698.RobertForsythe,ThomasPalfreyandCharlesPlott(1984),“FuturesMarketsandInformationEfficiency:ALaboratoryExamination,”JournalofFinance,39,955981.7D.GodeandShyamSunder(1993),“AllocativeEfficiencyofMarketswithZeroIntelligenceTraders:MarketasaPartialSubstituteforIndividualRationality,”JournalofPoliticalEconomy,101,119137.CharlesPlott(1996),“RationalIndividualBehaviorinMarketsandSocialChoiceProcesses:TheDiscoveredPreferenceHypothesis,”inTheRationalFoundationsofEconomicBehavior,K.Arrow,E.Colombatto,M.PerlamanandC.Schmidt(eds)MacmillanandNewYork:StMartinsPress,225250.JohnList(2003)“DoesMarketExperienceEliminateMarketAnomalies,”QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,4171.,市场均衡,行为博弈实验,Marwell,G.andR.E.Ames,“ExperimentsontheProvisionofPublicGoods.I.Resources,Interest,GroupSize,andtheFree-riderProblem”,AmericanJournalofSociology,1979,84(6),13351360.Gth,W.,R.SchmittbergerandB.Schwarze,“AnExperimentalAnalysisofUltimatiumBargaining”,JournalofEconomicBehaviorandOrganization,1982,3(4),367388.Forsythe,R.,J.L.Horowitz,N.E.SavinandM.Sefton,“FairnessinSimpleBargainingExperiments”,GamesandEconomicBehavior,1994,6(3),347369.Berg,J.,J.DickautandK.McCabe,“Trust,ReciprocityandSocialHistory”,GamesandEconomicBehavior,1995,10(1),122142.Henrich,J.,R.Boyd,S.Bowles,C.Camerer,E.Fehr,H.GintisandR.McElreath,“InSearchofHomoEconomicus:BehavioralExperimentsin15Small-ScaleSocieties”,AmericanEconomicReview,2001,91(2),7378.Camerer,C.,BehavioralGameTheory:ExperimentsonStrategicInteraction.PrincetonUniversityPress,Princeton,NJ,2003,11,167188.,社会偏好理论,Rabin,M.,“IncooperatingFairnessintoGameTheoryandEconomics”,AmericanEconomicReview,1993,83(5),12811302.Levine,D.,“ModelingAltruismandSpitefulnessinExperiments”,ReviewofEconomicDynamics,1998,1(3),593622.Fehr,E.andK.Schmidt,“ATheoryofFairness,Competition,andCooperation”,QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,1999,114(3),817868.Bolton,G.E.andA.Ockenfels,“ERCATheoryofEquity,Reciprocity,andCompetition”,AmericanEconomicReview,2000,90(1),166193.Andreoni,J.,andJ.Miller,“GivingAccordingtoGARP:AnExperimentalTestoftheConsistencyofPreferencesforAltruism”,Econometrica,2002,70(2),737753.Charness,G.andM.Rabin,“UnderstandingSocialPreferenceswithSimpleTests”,QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,2002,117(3),817869.Dufwenberg,M.andG.Kirchsteiger,“ATheoryofSequentialReciprocity”,GamesandEconomicBehavior,2004,47(2),268298.Sobel,J.,“InterdependentPreferencesandReciprocity”,JournalofEconomicLiterature,2005,43(2),392436.Falk,A.andU.Fischbacher,“ATheoryofReciprocity”,GamesandEconomicBehavior,2006,54(2),293315.Fehr,EandK.Schmidt,“TheoriesofFairnessandReciprocity:EvidenceandEconomicApplications”,in:M.Dewatripont,L.P.Hansen,S.Turnovski,AdvancesinEconomicTheory,EigthWorldCongressoftheEconometricSociety,Vol.1,Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,2003,208257.Fowler,J.,“AltruismandTurnout”,JournalofPolitics,2006,68(3),674683.,社会偏好理论各模型关系图,拍卖实验,KagelJHandLevinD(1986),TheWinnersCurseandPublicInformationinCommonValueAuctions,AmericanEconomicReview,76,894-920.JohnKagel,(1995),“Auctions:ASurveyofExperimentalResearch,”inHandbookofExperimentalEconomics,editedbyJ.KagelandA.Roth,Princeton,N.J.:PrincetonUniversityPress,501-535.KlempererP(1998),AuctionswithAlmostCommonValues:TheWalletGameanditsapplicationsEuropeanEconomicReview,42,757-769.Kagel,J.andLevin,D.(1999),“CommonValueAuctionswithInsiderInformation,”Econometrica,Vol.67,No.5.pp.1219-1238.Goeree,HoltandPalfrey(2002),“QuantalResponseEquilibriumandOverbiddinginPrivate-ValueAuctions,”JournalofEconomicTheory,104(1),247-272AbbinkKetal(2005),AnExperimentalTestofDesignAlternativesfortheBritish3G/UMTSAuction,EuropeanEconomicReview,49,505-530.CrawfordandNagoreIriberri(2007),“Level-kAuctions:CanaNon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