Financial Planning and Forecasting(英文版)

,CHAPTER4FinancialPlanningandForecasting,ForecastingsalesProjectingtheassetsneededtosupportsalesProjectinginternallygeneratedfundsProjectingoutsidefundsneededDecidinghowtoraisefundsSeeingtheeffectsofaplanonratios,2000BalanceSheet(Millionsof$),CashRR=70%).Nonewcommonstockwillbeissued.Anyexternalfundsneededwillberaisedasdebt,50%notespayableand50%L-Tdebt.,Sales$2,0001.25$2,500Less:VC1,2000.601,500FC7000.35875EBIT$100$125Interest1616EBT$84$109Taxes(40%)3444Netincome$50$65Div.(30%)$15$19AddntoRE$35$46,ForecastBasis,2001Forecast,2001ForecastedIncomeStatement,2000,Atfullcapacity,soallassetsmustincreaseinproportiontosales.,2000,1stPass,ForecastBasis,Cash$200.01$25Accts.rec.2400.12300Inventories2400.12300TotalCA$500$625NetFA5000.25625Totalassets$1,000$1,250,2001BalanceSheet(Assets),*Fromincomestatement.,2000,2001,ForecastBasis,AP/accruals$1000.05$125Notespayable100100TotalCL$200$225L-Tdebt100100Commonstk.500500Ret.earnings200+46*246Totalclaims$1,000$1,071,2001BalanceSheet(Claims),Whatistheadditionalfinancingneeded(AFN)?,NWCmusthavetheassetstomakeforecastedsales.Thebalancesheetmustbalance.So,wemustraise$179externally.,Requiredincreaseinassets=$250Spontaneousincreaseinliab.=$25Increaseinretainedearnings=$46TotalAFN=$179,HowwilltheAFNbefinanced?,Additionalnotespayable=0.5($179)=$89.50AdditionalL-Tdebt=0.5($179)=$89.50,Butthisfinancingwilladdtointerestexpense,whichwilllowerNIandretainedearnings.Wewillgenerallyignorefinancingfeedbacks.,20012ndPassBalanceSheet(Assets),Nochangeinassetrequirements.,1stPass,2ndPass,AFN,Cash$25$25Accts.rec.300300Inventories300300TotalCA$625$625NetFA625625Totalassets$1,250$1,250,20012ndPassBalanceSheet(Claims),1stPass,2ndPass,AFN,AP/accruals$125$125Notespayable100+89.5190TotalCL$225$315L-Tdebt100+89.5189Commonstk.500500Ret.earnings246246Totalclaims$1,069$1,250,EquationAFN=$181vs.$179.Whydifferent?,Equationmethodassumesaconstantprofitmargin,aconstantdividendpayout,andaconstantcapitalstructure.Financialstatementmethodismoreflexible.Moreimportant,itallowsdifferentitemstogrowatdifferentrates.,Ratios,20002001(E)Industry,BEP10.00%10.00%20.00%PoorProfitmargin2.52%2.62%4.00%”ROE7.20%8.77%15.60%”DSO(days)43.2043.2032.00”Inv.turnover8.33x8.33x11.00 x”F.A.turnover4.00 x4.00 x5.00 x”T.A.turnover2.00 x2.00 x2.50 x”D/Aratio30.00%40.34%36.00%”TIE6.25x7.81x9.4x”Currentratio2.50 x1.99x3.00 x”Payoutratio30.00%30.00%30.00%O.K.,Whatwasthenetinvestmentinoperatingcapital?,Oper.cap.2001=NOWC+NetFA=$625$125+$625=$1,125.Oper.cap.2000=$900.=$1,125$900=$225.,Netinv.inoper.cap.,Howmuchfreecashflowwasgeneratedin2001?,FCF=NOPATNetinv.inoper.cap.=EBIT(1T)Netinv.inoper.cap.=$125(0.6)$225=$75$225=-$150.,Supposein2000fixedassetshadbeenoperatedatonly75%ofcapacity.,Withtheexistingfixedassets,salescouldbe$2,667.Sincesalesareforecastedatonly$2,500,nonewfixedassetsareneeded.,Howwouldtheexcesscapacitysituationaffectthe2001AFN?,Theprojectedincreaseinfixedassetswas$125,theAFNwoulddecreaseby$125.Sincenonewfixedassetswillbeneeded,AFNwillfallby$125,to$179$125=$54.,Q.Ifsaleswentupto$3,000,not$2,500,whatwouldtheF.A.requirementbe?,A.Targetratio=FA/Capacitysales=500/2,667=18.75%.,HaveenoughF.A.forsalesupto$2,667,butneedF.A.foranother$333ofsales:,DFA=0.1875(333)=$62.4.,Howwouldexcesscapacityaffecttheforecastedratios?,1.Saleswouldntchangebutassetswouldbelower,soturnoverswouldbebetter.2.Lessnewdebt,hencelowerinterest,sohigherprofits,EPS,ROE(whenfinancingfeedbacksconsidered).3.Debtratio,TIEwouldimprove.,2001ForecastedRatios:S01=$2,500,%of2000Capacity100%75%Industry,BEP10.00%11.11%20.00%Profitmargin2.62%2.62%4.00%ROE8.77%8.77%15.60%DSO(days)43.2043.2032.00Inv.turnover8.33x8.33x11.00 xF.A.turnover4.00 x5.00 x5.00 xT.A.turnover2.00 x2.22x2.50 xD/Aratio40.34%33.71%36.00%TIE7.81x7.81x9.40 xCurrentratio1.99x2.48x3.00 x,HowisNWCperformingwithregardtoitsreceivablesandinventories?,DSOishigherthantheindustryaverage,andinventoryturnoverislowerthantheindustryaverage.Improvementsherewouldlowercurrentassets,reducecapitalrequirements,andfurtherimproveprofitabilityandotherratios.,Assets,Sales,0,1,100,1,000,2,000,2,500,DecliningA/SRatio,1,000/2,000=0.5;1,100/2,500=0.44.Decliningratioshowseconomiesofscale.GoingfromS=0toS=$2,000requires$1,000ofassets.Next$500ofsalesrequiresonly$100ofassets.,BaseStock,Assets,Sales,1,000,2,000,500,A/Schangesifassetsarelumpy.Generallywillhaveexcesscapacity,buteventuallyasmallDSleadstoalargeDA.,500,1,000,1,500,RegressionAnalysisforAssetForecasting,Gethistoricaldataonagoodcompany,thenfitaregressionlinetoseehowmuchagivensalesincreasewillrequireinwayofassetincrease.,ExampleofRegression,ConstantratiooverestimatesinventoryrequiredtogofromS1=2,000toS2=2,500.,ForaWell-ManagedCo.,Year,Sales,Inv.,1998,$1,280,$118,1999,1,600,138,2000,2,000,162,2001E,2,500E,192E,Inventory,Sales(000),1.28,1.6,2.0,2.5,Regressionline,Constantratioforecast,HowwouldincreasesintheseitemsaffecttheAFN?,Higherdividendpayoutratio?IncreaseAFN:Lessretainedearnings.Higherprofitmargin?DecreaseAFN:Higherprofits,moreretainedearnings.Highercapitalintensityratio,A*/S0?IncreaseAFN:Needmoreassetsforgivensalesincrease.Paysuppliersin60daysratherthan30days?DecreaseAFN:Tradecreditorssupplymorecapital,i.e.,L*/S0increases.,Summary:Howdi