宏观经济学及财务知识分析

Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-1,CHAPTER13,StabilizationPolicy,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-2,Questions,Whatprinciplesshouldguidestabilizationpolicy?Whataspectsofstabilizationpolicydoeconomistsargueabouttoday?Ismonetarypolicyorfiscalpolicymoreeffectiveasastabilizationpolicy?Howdoesuncertaintyaffectthewaystabilizationpolicyshouldbemade?,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-3,Questions,Howlongarelagsassociatedwithstabilizationpolicy?Isitbetterforstabilizationpolicytobeconductedaccordingtofixedrulesortobeconductedbyauthoritieswithsubstantialdiscretion?,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-4,GovernmentPolicy,TherearetwokindsofgovernmentpolicyfiscalpolicyshiftstheIScurvemonetarypolicyshiftstheLMcurveThegovernmentusespolicytostabilizethemacroeconomybyminimizingtheimpactofshocks,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-5,MonetaryPolicyInstitutions,MonetarypolicyintheU.S.ismadebytheFederalReservewhichisthecentralbanktheprincipalpolicy-makingbodyoftheFederalReservesystemistheFederalOpenMarketCommittee(FOMC)theFOMClowersandraisesinterestratesandincreasesanddecreasesthemoneysupply,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-6,MonetaryPolicyInstitutions,TheFederalReservehasacentralofficeand12regionalofficesthecentralofficeistheBoardofGovernorsinWashington,DCthe12regionalofficesarethe12FederalreservebanksscatteredaroundtheU.S.themembersoftheBoardofGovernorsandthePresidentsoftheregionalFederalReserveBanksmakeuptheFOMC,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-7,Figure13.1-StructureoftheFederalReserveSystem,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-8,Figure13.2-CompositionoftheFederalOpenMarketCommittee,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-9,MonetaryPolicyInstitutions,TheFOMCmeetsapproximatelyonceamonthtosetinterestratesemergencymeetingscanalsobescheduledonshortnoticeWhentheFOMCdecidesonapolicychange,itisimplementedimmediatelyittakesonlyminutesforinterestratestoshiftinresponsetoFOMCactions,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-10,MonetaryPolicyInstitutions,TheFOMCchangesinterestratesbycarryingoutopen-marketoperationsinanexpansionaryopen-marketoperation,theFederalReservebuysgovernmentbonds,increasingbankreserves,andloweringinterestratesinacontractionaryopen-marketoperation,theFederalReservesellsgovernmentbonds,decreasingbankreserves,andraisinginterestrates,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-11,MonetaryPolicyInstitutions,TheFederalReservecanalsoalterinterestratesintwootherwaystheBoardofGovernorscanalterlegallyrequiredbankreservestheBoardofGovernorscanlendmoneydirectlytofinancialinstitutionsThesetoolsareusedveryrarely,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-12,FiscalPolicyInstitutions,FiscalpolicyintheU.S.ismanagedbyCongresstheCongresscreatesthetaxlawsthatdeterminetheamountoftaxesimposedbythefederalgovernmenttheCongresssspendingbillsdeterminethelevelofgovernmentpurchasesTaxandspendinglevelsaresetthroughaprocesscalledthebudgetcycle,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-13,Figure13.4-TheBudgetProcess,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-14,GovernmentExpenditures,MandatoryexpendituresincludespendingforSocialSecurity,Medicare,Medicaid,unemploymentinsurance,andfoodstampsDiscretionaryexpendituresmustbeappropriatedeachyearbyCongresstheseincludedefensespending,NASA,highwayspending,educationspending,andsoforth,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-15,Figure13.5-MajorFederalGovernmentExpendituresbyCategory,1960-2000,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-16,Figure13.6-FederalGovernmentDiscretionarySpending,ExcludingDefense(2000),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-17,FiscalPolicyInstitutions,Becauseofthewaythebudgetprocessissetup,makingfiscalpolicyintheU.S.iscomplicatedandtime-consumingthetimebetweenwhenapolicyproposalismadeandwhenitbecomeseffective(theinsidelag)cantakeyearstheinsidelagassociatedwithmonetarypolicychangescanbemeasuredindaysorweeks,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-18,TheHistoryofEconomicPolicy,TheEmploymentActof1946establishedCongresssJointEconomicCommitteeandthePresidentsCouncilofEconomicAdvisorscalledonthePresidenttoestimateandforecastthecurrentandfuturelevelofeconomicactivityintheU.S.announcedthatitwastheresponsibilityofthefederalgovernmenttofosterandpromotefreeenterpriseandthegeneralwelfare,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-19,TheHistoryofEconomicPolicy,BeforetheGreatDepression,thegeneralbeliefwasthatthegovernmentcouldnotstabilizetheeconomyandshouldnottrytodosoItwaslargelyduetothewritingsofJohnMaynardKeynesthateconomistsandpoliticiansbecameconvincedthatgovernmentscouldhaltdepressionsandsmoothoutthebusinesscycle,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-20,TheHistoryofEconomicPolicy,Becauseofthelowandstableinflationandunemploymentratesofthe1960s,economistsandpoliticiansthoughtthatthebusinesscyclewasdeadHowever,inthe1970s,expectedinflationroseandthePhillipscurveshifteduptheresultwasstagflation,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-21,Figure13.7-TheU.S.PhillipsCurve(s),1955-1980,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-22,TheHistoryofEconomicPolicy,Bytheendofthe1970s,manyeconomistswereconvincedthatactivemonetarypolicydidmoreharmthangoodtheyarguedthattheU.S.wouldbebetteroffwithan“automatic”monetarypolicyoneideaistofixthemoneystocktoastablelong-rungrowthpaththeinstabilityofvelocityhasreducedthenumberofadvocatesofthispolicy,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-23,Figure13.8-TheVelocityofMoneybefore1980,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-24,ThePowerandLimitsofStabilizationPolicy,Economiststodayhavevariedviewsastohowthecentralbankandfiscalauthoritiesshouldmanagetheeconomysome(suchasMiltonFriedman)feelthatactivistattemptstomanagetheeconomyarelikelytodomoreharmthangoodsomebelievethattheappropriategovernmentpolicycandoalottostabilizetheeconomyaftershocksoccur,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-25,ThePowerandLimitsofStabilizationPolicy,Eventhemostactivistofeconomistsrecognizethelimitsofstabilizationpolicystabilizationpolicyrequiresustoknowwheretheeconomyisandwhereitisgoinguselarge-scalemacroeconomicmodelstoforecastthefuturesearchforleadingindicatorsthelevelofthestockmarketisoftenused,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-26,TheLucasCritique,Expectationsofthefutureaffectdecision-makinginthepresentRobertLucasarguedthat,becauseexpectationsofthefutureincludeexpectationsofgovernmentpolicies,ifpoliciesarechangedthestructureoftheeconomymaychangeaswelleconomicmodelsfromthepastmaynotbeusefulinforecastingthefutureeffectsofpolicy,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-27,LeadingIndicators,TheindexofleadingindicatorscontainstencomponentsTheleadingindicatorthathasbeenmostcloselywatchedisthemoneysupplytherearefourmeasuresofthemoneysupply(M1,M2,M3,andL)thesefourmonetaryaggregatesdonotbehaveinthesameway,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-28,Figure13.9-DifferentMeasuresoftheMoneyStockBehaveDifferently,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-29,TheMoneyMultiplier,OpenmarketoperationschangethemonetarybasetheeffectsonthemoneysupplyarelessdirectandlesscertainChangesinthemonetarybasecausechangesinthemoneysupplythroughaprocesscalledthemoneymultiplier(),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-30,TheMoneyMultiplier,Themoneymultipliercanbeaffectedbythethecurrency-to-depositsratiothathouseholdsandbusinesseskeepandthelevelofexcessreservesheldbybanks,(curr/dep)=currency-to-depositsratio(req/dep)=ratioofrequiredreserves(exc/dep)=excessreserves-to-deposits,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-31,Figure13.10-ChangesintheCurrency-to-DepositsRatio,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-32,LongLags&VariableEffects,Evenwithreliableforecasts,changesinpolicyaffecttheeconomywithlonglagsandhavevariableeffectsChangesininterestratestaketimetoaffectinvestment,aggregatedemand,andrealGDPThelevelofGDPtodayisdeterminedbywhatlong-runriskyinterestratesexistedmorethanayearandahalfago,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-33,Monetaryvs.FiscalPolicy,AttheendoftheWorldWarIIera,mosteconomistsandpolicymakersbelievedthattheprincipalstabilizationpolicytoolwouldbefiscalpolicyToday,theoverwhelmingconsensusisthatmonetarypolicyhasprovenitselftobefasteractingandmorereliablethanfiscalpolicy,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-34,Monetaryvs.FiscalPolicy,FiscalpolicytakesalongeramountoftimetoworkdelaysduetothepoliticalprocessThismeansthattheFederalReservecanneutralizetheeffectsofanychangeinfiscalpolicyonaggregatedemandswingsintaxlawsandappropriationshavelittleeffectonrealGDPunlesstheFederalReservewishesthemto,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-35,AutomaticStabilizers,AutomaticstabilizersincludetaxcollectionsandsocialtransferprogramssuchasfoodstampsandunemploymentinsuranceTheseworkwithoutnewpolicieshavingtobecreatedandthereforecanmoderatethebusinesscyclemuchmorequicklythancandiscretionarypolicy,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-36,HowMonetaryPolicyWorks,MonetarypolicytakestimetoworkaswelltheFederalOpenMarketCommitteemustfirstrecognizethatthereisaproblemandthenformulateapolicywhilechangesininterestrateswilloccuralmostimmediately,ittakesoverayearforchangesininterestratestochangenationaloutputandunemployment,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-37,HowMonetaryPolicyWorks,TheFederalReservecaneithertargetrealinterestratesorkeepthemoneystockgrowingsmoothlyiftheprincipalinstabilityintheeconomyisashiftingIScurve,targetinginterestrateswillnotstabilizetheeconomyiftheinstabilityintheeconomyoccursbecausemoneydemandisunstableorbecausethecurrency-to-depositsandthereserves-to-depositsratiosvary,thentargetinginterestratesiswiser,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-38,Rulesvs.Authorities,Shouldmonetarypolicybeconducted“automatically”accordingtorulesorshoulditbelefttothediscretionofauthorities?thefirstreasonforautomaticrulesisthatwefearthatthepeopleappointedtoauthoritieswillbeincompetentthesecondreasonforfixedrulesisthatauthoritiesmightnothavetherightobjectivespoliticalbusinesscycle,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-39,Figure13.11-ThePolitically-InfluencedBusinessCycle:RelativeGrowthintheSecondYearofPresidentialTerms,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-40,CentralBankIndependence,Researchhassuggestedthatthemoreindependentacentralbank,thebetteritsperformancemoreindependentcentralbankspresidedoverloweraverageinflationandlessvariableinflationcountrieswithindependentbanksdidnothavehigherunemploymentrates,lowerrealGDPgrowth,orlargerbusinesscycles,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-41,Figure13.12-InflationandCentralBankInsulationfromPolitics,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-42,Credibility&Commitment,Intheshortrun,pursuingamoreexpansionarymonetarypolicycanseemtohavegreatbenefitshigherrealGDP,lowerunemployment,littleimpactoninflationInthelongrun,however,acentralbankiswisertokeeplowinflationasitstopprioritykeepsexpectedinflationlowandmaintainscredibility,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-43,Credibility&Commitment,Economistscallthisconflictbetweenshort-runandlong-runinterestsdynamicinconsistencysomeeconomistshavearguedthatthisisanotherreasontohaveafixedsetofrulesformonetarypolicyothersbelievethatcentralbanksareconcernedwiththeirlong-termreputationandwillresistthetemptationtomakeinflationandmoneygrowthhigherthanexpected,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-44,ModernMonetaryPolicy,Whatguidelinesformonetarypolicyshouldthecentralbankfollow?EconomistsbelievethatthecentralbankshouldnottargetrealeconomicvariablessuchasthegrowthrateofrealGDPortheunemploymentratethesearedeterminedinthelongrunbythegrowthofpotentialoutputandthenaturalrateofunemploymentPolicieswhichtargetnominalvariableswillworkbetter,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-45,ModernMonetaryPolicy,TheTaylorruleprovidesapolicyproposalforthecentralbankthecentralbankchoosesatargetfortheinflationrateandthenraisesinterestrateswheninflationisaboveandlowersinterestrateswheninflationisbelowthistarget,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-46,FinancialCrises,TheFederalReservehasotherimportanttoolsthatcanbeusedtotrytostemdepressionsdepositinsuranceinsulatesbankdepositorsfromtheeffectsoffinancialcrisesifafinancialcrisisissevereenough,theFederalReservewillactasalenderoflastresort,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-47,FinancialCrises,Afinancialcrisisseesinvestorsasagroupsuddenlybecomeconvincedthattheirinvestmentshavebecomeoverlyriskytheytrytoexchangetheirinvestmentsforrelativelysafe,liquidassetsinterestratesspikeupwardinvestmentcanfallsharplysendingtheeconomyintoadepression,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-48,FinancialCrises,Inafinancialcrisis,theFederalReservecandoalotofgoodbyrapidlyexpandingthemoneysupplytokeepinterestratesfromrisingsharplyTheFederalReservecanalsoreducethechanceofafinancialcrisisoccurringbydoingagoodjobasthesupervisorandregulatorofthebankingsystem,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-49,LenderofLastResort,TheFederalReservecanalsohelpbylendingdirectlytoinstitutionsthatarefundamentallysolventbutaretemporarilyilliquiditcandoharmifitbailsoutinstitutionsthathavegonebankruptbecausethatencouragesotherinstitutionstotakeexcessiveriskshopingthatthecentralbankwillbailthemoutinthefuture,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-50,DepositInsurance,OneofthereformsoftheNewDealwastheinstitutionofdepositinsurancebytheFederalDepositInsuranceCorporationfederaldepositinsuranceactsasamonetaryautomaticstabilizereliminatestheriskofkeepingfundsinabanktheavailabilityofdepositinsurancecreatesmoralhazardbanksmaydecidetomakeriskyhigh-interestloans,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-51,ChapterSummary,Macroeconomicpolicyshouldattempttostabilizetheeconomy:toavoidextremesofhighunemploymentandofhighandrisinginflationLongandvariablelagsmakestabilizationpolicyextremelydifficult,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-52,ChapterSummary,Economistsarrangethemselvesalongaspectrum,withsomeadvocatingmoreaggressivemanagementoftheeconomyandothersconcentratingonestablishingastableframeworkandeconomicenvironmentcomparedtodifferencesofopinionamongeconomistsinthepast,differencesofopiniontodayareminor,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,13-53,ChapterSumma