国际经济学20

Chapter20,OptimumCurrencyAreasandtheEuropeanExperience,Slide20-2,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,ChapterOrganization,HowtheEuropeanSingleCurrencyEvolvedTheEuroandEconomicPolicyintheEuroZoneTheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAreasTheFutureofEMUSummary,Slide20-3,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,Introduction,EuropeanUnioncountrieshaveprogressivelynarrowedthefluctuationsoftheircurrenciesagainsteachother.ThisculminatedinthebirthoftheeuroonJanuary1,1999.Thischapterfocusesonthefollowingquestions:HowandwhydidEuropesetupitssinglecurrency?Willtheeurobegoodfortheeconomiesofitsmembers?HowwilltheeuroaffectcountriesoutsideoftheEuropeanMonetaryUnion(EMU)?WhatlessonsdoestheEuropeanexperiencecarryforotherpotentialcurrencyblocks?,Slide20-4,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,Introduction,Figure20-1:MembersoftheEuroZoneasofJanuary1,2001,Slide20-5,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,Table20-1:ABriefGlossaryofEuronyms,HowtheEuropeanSingleCurrencyEvolved,Slide20-6,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,HowtheEuropeanSingleCurrencyEvolved,EuropeanCurrencyReformInitiatives,1969-1978TheWernerreport(1969)Itsetoutablueprintforthestage-by-stagerealizationofEconomicandMonetaryUnionbyproposingathree-phaseprogramto:Eliminateintra-EuropeanexchangeratemovementsCentralizeEUmonetarypolicydecisionsLowerremainingtradebarrierswithinEuropeTwomajorreasonsforadoptingtheEuro:ToenhanceEuropesroleintheworldmonetarysystemToturntheEuropeanUnionintoatrulyunifiedmarket,Slide20-7,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,TheEuropeanMonetarySystem,1979-1998Germany,theNetherlands,Belgium,Luxemburg,France,Italy,andBritainparticipatedinaninformaljointfloatagainstthedollarknownasthe“snake.”Mostexchangeratescouldfluctuateupordownbyasmuchas2.25%relativetoanassignedparvalue.ThesnakeservedasaprologuetothemorecomprehensiveEuropeanMonetarySystem(EMS).EightoriginalparticipantsintheEMSsexchangeratemechanismbeganoperatingaformalnetworkofmutuallypeggedexchangeratesinMarch1979.,HowtheEuropeanSingleCurrencyEvolved,Slide20-8,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,Capitalcontrolsandfrequentrealignmentswereessentialingredientsinmaintainingthesystemuntilthemid-1980s.Afterthemid-1980s,thesecontrolshavebeenabolishedaspartoftheEUswider“1992”programofmarketunification.DuringthecurrencycrisisthatbrokeoutinSeptember1992,BritainandItalyallowedtheircurrenciestofloat.InAugust1993mostEMScurrencybandswerewidenedto15%inthefaceofcontinuingspeculativeattacks.,HowtheEuropeanSingleCurrencyEvolved,Slide20-9,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,GermanMonetaryDominanceandtheCredibilityTheoryoftheEMSGermanyhaslowinflationandanindependentcentralbank.Italsohasthereputationfortoughanti-inflationpolicies.CredibilitytheoryoftheEMSByfixingtheircurrenciestotheDM,theotherEMScountriesineffectimportedtheGermanBundesbankscredibilityasaninflationfighter.InflationratesinEMScountriestendedtoconvergearoundGermanysgenerallylowinflationrate.,HowtheEuropeanSingleCurrencyEvolved,Slide20-10,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,HowtheEuropeanSingleCurrencyEvolved,Figure20-2:InflationConvergenceWithinSixOriginalEMSMembers,1978-2000,Slide20-11,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,TheEU“1992”InitiativeTheEUcountrieshavetriedtoachievegreaterinternaleconomicunityby:FixingmutualexchangeratesDirectmeasurestoencouragethefreeflowofgoods,services,andfactorsofproductionTheprocessofmarketunificationbeganwhentheoriginalEUmembersformedtheircustomsunionin1957.TheSingleEuropeanActof1986providedforafreemovementofpeople,goods,services,andcapitalandestablishedmanynewpolicies.,HowtheEuropeanSingleCurrencyEvolved,Slide20-12,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,EuropeanEconomicandMonetaryUnionIn1989,theDelorsreportlaidthefoundationsforthesinglecurrency,theeuro.Economicandmonetaryunion(EMU)AEuropeanUnioninwhichnationalcurrenciesarereplacedbyasingleEUcurrencymanagedbyasolecentralbankthatoperatesonbehalfofallEUmembers.,HowtheEuropeanSingleCurrencyEvolved,Slide20-13,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,ThreestagesoftheDelorsplan:AllEUmembersweretojointheEMSexchangeratemechanism(ERM)ExchangeratemarginsweretobenarrowedandcertainmacroeconomicpolicydecisionsplacedundermorecentralizedEUcontrolReplacementofnationalcurrenciesbyasingleEuropeancurrencyandvestingallmonetarypolicydecisionsinaESCB,HowtheEuropeanSingleCurrencyEvolved,Slide20-14,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,MaastrichtTreaty(1991)ItsetoutablueprintforthetransitionprocessfromtheEMSfixedexchangeratesystemtoEMU.ItspecifiedasetofmacroeconomicconvergencecriteriathatEUcountriesneedtosatisfyforadmissiontoEMU.ItincludedstepstowardharmonizingsocialpolicywithintheEUandtowardcentralizingforeignanddefensepolicydecision.,HowtheEuropeanSingleCurrencyEvolved,Slide20-15,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,EUcountriesmovedawayfromtheEMSandtowardthesinglesharedcurrencyforfourreasons:GreaterdegreeofEuropeanmarketintegrationSameopportunityasGermanytoparticipateinsystem-widemonetarydecisionsCompletefreedomofcapitalmovementsPoliticalstabilityofEurope,HowtheEuropeanSingleCurrencyEvolved,Slide20-16,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,TheEuroandEconomicPolicyintheEuroZone,TheMaastrichtConvergenceCriteriaandtheStabilityandGrowthPactTheMaastrichtTreatyspecifiesthatEUmembercountriesmustsatisfyseveralconvergencecriteria:PricestabilityMaximuminflationrate1.5%abovetheaverageofthethreeEUmemberstateswithlowestinflationExchangeratestabilityStableexchangeratewithintheERMwithoutdevaluingonitsowninitiativeBudgetdisciplineMaximumpublic-sectordeficit3%ofthecountrysGDPMaximumpublicdebt60%ofthecountrysGDP,Slide20-17,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,TheEuroandEconomicPolicyintheEuroZone,Figure20-3:BehavioroftheEurosExchangeRatesAgainstMajorCurrencies,Slide20-18,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,AStabilityandGrowthPact(SGP)in1997setsup:Themedium-termbudgetaryobjectiveofpositionsclosetobalanceorinsurplusAtimetablefortheimpositionoffinancialpenaltiesoncountiesthatfailtocorrectsituationsof“excessive”deficitsanddebtpromptlyenough,TheEuroandEconomicPolicyintheEuroZone,Slide20-19,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,TheEuropeanSystemofCentralBanksItconsistsoftheEuropeanCentralBankinFrankfurtplus12nationalcentralbanks.Itconductsmonetarypolicyfortheeurozone.Itisdependentonpoliticiansintworespects:TheESCBsmembersarepoliticalappointments.TheMaastrichtTreatyleavesexchangeratepolicyfortheeurozoneultimatelyinthehandsofthepoliticalauthorities.,TheEuroandEconomicPolicyintheEuroZone,Slide20-20,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,TheRevisedExchangeRateMechanismItdefinesbroadexchangeratezonesforEUcountriesthatarenotyetmembersofEMUagainsttheeuro.Itspecifiesreciprocalinterventionarrangementstosupportthesetargetzones.ItisreferredtoasERM2.Itwasviewednecessaryinorderto:DiscouragecompetitivedevaluationsagainsttheeurobyEUmembersoutsidetheeurozoneGivewould-beEMUentrantsawayofsatisfyingtheexchangeratestabilityconvergencecriterion,TheEuroandEconomicPolicyintheEuroZone,Slide20-21,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,TheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAreas,TheoryofoptimumcurrencyareasItpredictsthatfixedexchangeratesaremostappropriateforareascloselyintegratedthroughinternationaltradeandfactormovements.,Slide20-22,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,EconomicIntegrationandtheBenefitsofaFixedExchangeRateArea:GGScheduleMonetaryefficiencygainThejoinerssavingfromavoidingtheuncertainty,confusion,andcalculationandtransactioncoststhatarisewhenexchangeratesfloat.Itishigher,thehigherthedegreeofeconomicintegrationbetweenthejoiningcountryandthefixedexchangeratearea.GGscheduleItshowshowthepotentialgainofacountryfromjoiningtheeurozonedependsonitstradinglinkwiththatregion.Itslopesupward.,TheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAreas,Slide20-23,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,TheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAreas,Figure20-4:TheGGSchedule,Slide20-24,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,EconomicIntegrationandtheCostsofaFixedExchangeRateArea:TheLLScheduleEconomicstabilitylossTheeconomicstabilitylossthatarisesbecauseacountrythatjoinsanexchangerateareagivesupitsabilitytousetheexchangerateandmonetarypolicyforthepurposeofstabilizingoutputandemployment.Itislower,thehigherthedegreeofeconomicintegrationbetweenacountryandthefixedexchangerateareathatitjoins.LLscheduleItshowstherelationshipofthecountryseconomicstabilitylossfromjoining.Itslopesdownward.,TheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAreas,Slide20-25,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,TheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAreas,Figure20-5:TheLLSchedule,Slide20-26,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,TheDecisiontoJoinaCurrencyArea:PuttingtheGGandLLSchedulesTogetherTheintersectionofGGandLLDeterminesacriticallevelofeconomicintegrationbetweenafixedexchangerateareaandacountryShowshowacountryshoulddecidewhethertofixitscurrencysexchangerateagainsttheeuro,TheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAreas,Slide20-27,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,TheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAreas,Figure20-6:DecidingWhentoPegtheExchangeRate,Gainsexceedlosses,Lossesexceedgains,Slide20-28,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,TheGG-LLframeworkcanbeusedtoexaminehowchangesinacountryseconomicenvironmentaffectitswillingnesstopegitscurrencytoanoutsidecurrencyarea.Figure20-7illustratesanincreaseinthesizeandfrequencyofsuddenshiftsinthedemandforthecountrysexports.,TheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAreas,Slide20-29,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,TheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAreas,Figure20-7:AnIncreaseinOutputMarketVariability,Slide20-30,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,WhatIsanOptimumCurrencyArea?Itisaregionwhereitisbest(optimal)tohaveasinglecurrency.Optimalitydependsondegreeofeconomicintegration:TradeingoodsandservicesFactormobilityAfixedexchangerateareawillbestservetheeconomicinterestsofeachofitsmembersifthedegreeofoutputandfactortradeamongthemishigh.,TheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAreas,Slide20-31,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,TheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAreas,Figure20-8:Intra-EUTradeasaPercentofEUGDP,Slide20-32,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,TheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAreas,Table20-2:PeopleChangingRegionofResidencein1986(percentoftotalpopulation),Slide20-33,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,CaseStudy:IsEuropeanOptimumCurrencyArea?Europeisnotanoptimumcurrencyarea:MostEUcountriesexportform10%to20%oftheiroutputtootherEUcountries.EU-U.S.tradeisonly2%ofU.S.GNP.LaborismuchmoremobilewithintheU.S.thanwithinEurope.Federaltransfersandchangesinfederaltaxpaymentsprovideamuchbiggercushionforregion-specificshocksintheU.S.thandoEUrevenuesandexpenditures.,TheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAreas,Slide20-34,Copyright2003PearsonEducation,Inc.,TheTheoryofOptimumCurrencyAre