宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析(英文版)

Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-1,CHAPTER6,BuildingBlocksoftheFlexible-PriceModel,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-2,Questions,Whatisafull-employmentanalysis?Whatkeepstheeconomyatfullemploymentwhenwagesandpricesareflexible?Whatdeterminesthelevelofconsumptionspending?Whatdeterminesthelevelofinvestmentspending?,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-3,Questions,Whatdeterminesthelevelofnetexports?Whatdeterminestheleveloftheexchangerate?,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-4,Full-EmploymentAnalysis,Wewillnowlookattheeconomyovertheshort-runaperiodinwhichitsproductiveresourcesarefixedWewillassumethatwagesandpricesareflexiblesothatallmarketsclearsupplyequalsdemandinthelabormarketfull-employmentanalysis,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-5,Flexible-PriceModel,Twosetsoffactorsdeterminethelevelsofpotentialoutputandrealwagestheproductionfunctionthebalanceofsupplyanddemandinthelabormarket,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-6,TheProductionFunction,Potentialoutput(Y*)isdeterminedbythesizeofthelaborforce(L)theeconomyscapitalstock(K)theefficiencyoflabor(E)aparameterindicatinghowquicklyreturnstoinvestmentdiminish(),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-7,Figure6.1-TheProductionFunction,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-8,Flexible-PriceModel,Theassumptionthatwagesandpricesareflexiblewascommonlymadeby“classical”economistsThus,thisassumptionisoftencalledtheclassicalassumptionguaranteesthatmarketsworkguaranteesfullemploymentguaranteesthatactualoutputisequaltopotentialoutput,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-9,Flexible-PriceModel,Theflexible-priceassumptionisnotalwaysagoodoneamarketeconomydoesnotalwaysproducefullemploymentThe“Keynesian”modelassumesthatwagesandpricesarestickythiswillbecoveredinSectionIIIoftextTheClassicalassumptionsimplifiestheanalysisoftheeconomy,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-10,Table6.1-ClassicalFlexible-PriceversusKeynesianSticky-PriceAnalyses,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-11,TheLaborMarket,AssumethereareKidenticalfirmseachfirmownsoneunitoftheeconomyscapitalstockeachfirmhiresLworkersandpaysthemthesamewageWeachfirmsellsYunitsofoutputataper-unitpriceofPnofirmhascontroloverthepriceitreceivesorthewageitpaysthesearedeterminedbythemarket,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-12,TheLaborMarket,Todeterminehowmanyworkerstohire,thefirmfollowstworuleshireworkerstoboostoutputstophiringwhentheextrarevenuefromtheoutputhiredbythelastworkerjustequalshisorherwage,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-13,TheLaborMarket,Thevalueoftheoutputproducedbythelastworkerhiredistheproductprice(P)multipliedbythemarginalproductoflabor(MPL)Thecostofhiringthelastworkerishisorherwage(W)Thefirmwillkeephiringuntil,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-14,TheLaborMarket,Themarginalproductoflaboristhedifferencebetweenwhatthefirmcanproducewithitscurrentlaborforce(Lfirm)andwhatitcouldproduceifithiredonemoreworkerAtitscurrentlaborforce,theoutputofthefirmwillbe,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-15,TheLaborMarket,Therefore,themarginalproductoflabor(MPL)mustbeequalto,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-16,Figure6.2-TheFirmsOutputasaFunctionoftheFirmsEmployment,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-17,TheLaborMarket,UsingtheCobb-Douglasformoftheproductionfunction,SinceKfirm=1,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-18,TheLaborMarket,Theterminthebracketsisagrowthrateofavariableraisedtoapower,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-19,TheLaborMarket,Thefirmhiresworkersuptothepointwheretheproductpricemultipliedbythemarginalproductoflaborequalsthewage,SubstitutingforMPL,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-20,Figure6.3-TheTypicalFirmsHiringPolicy,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-21,TheLaborMarket,Thetypicalfirmsdemandforlaboris,BecausethereareKfirmsintheeconomy,totaleconomy-wideemploymentwillbe,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-22,TheLaborMarket,Iftherearemoreworkersthanfirmswanttohireatthecurrentwagesomeoftheunemployedwillunderbidtheirfellowemployedworkersthosewhoareemployedwillrespondbyacceptingalowerwagetokeeptheirjobsrealwageswillfallandfirmswillhiremoreworkers,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-23,TheLaborMarket,IftherearefewerworkersthanfirmswanttohireatthecurrentwagesomefirmswilltrytobidworkersawaybyofferinghigherwagestherealwagewillriseandfirmswillreducethequantityoflabordemandedEquilibriumoccursinthelabormarketwhenlabordemandisequaltothelaborforce,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-24,Figure6.4-EquilibriumintheLaborMarket,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-25,TheLaborMarket,Equilibriuminthelabormarketmeansthat,Thismeansthattheequilibriumrealwageisequalto,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-26,TheLaborMarket,Whenthelabormarketisinequilibrium,thetypicalfirmproducesanoutputlevelequalto,TotaloutputwillbeKmultipliedbythetypicalfirmsoutput,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-27,TheLaborMarket,Simplifying,wegettheCobb-Douglasproductionfunction,Ifmarketsworkwell,theactuallevelofoutputintheeconomy(Y)willbeequaltotheeconomyspotentialoutput(Y*),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-28,Figure6.5-InaFull-EmploymentEconomy,RealGDPEqualsPotentialOutput,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-29,DomesticSpending,Nationalincomecanbedividedintofourcomponentsconsumptionspending(C)investmentspending(I)governmentpurchases(G)netexports(NX),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-30,Figure6.6-TheFourComponentsofSpendingAddUptoRealGDP,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-31,ConsumptionSpending,Householdsuseincome(Y)inthreewayspaynettaxes(T)assumethatT=tY,wheretisanaveragetaxratedisposableincomeisequaltoincomeminustaxesYD=Y-T=(1-t)Ysave(SH)consume(C),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-32,Figure6.7-FromNationalIncometoConsumptionSpending,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-33,ConsumptionSpending,Consumptionspendingcanbebrokendownintotwocomponentsabaselinelevelofconsumption(C0)theamountthathouseholdswouldspendonconsumptiongoodsiftheyhadnoincomeafractionofdisposableincome(CyYD)Cyisthemarginalpropensitytoconsume,amountbywhichconsumptionspendingrisesinresponsetoa$1increaseindisposableincome,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-34,ConsumptionSpending,ConsumptionisassumedtobealinearfunctionofrealGDP(Y)Thereareotherfactorsthataffectconsumptionbesidesdisposableincomeassumedtoaffectbaselineconsumption(C0)only,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-35,Figure6.8-OtherDeterminantsofConsumptionSpending,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-36,ConsumptionSpending,Cyisthemarginalpropensitytoconsume0Cy1ifincomesrise,householdswillusesomeoftheirextraincometoincreasetheirconsumptionspendingasincomesrise,householdswillalsoincreasetheirsaving,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-37,Figure6.9-TheConsumptionFunction,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-38,ConsumptionSpending,Examplethetaxrate(t)=25%,nationalincome(Y)=$10trillion,thebaselinelevelofconsumption(C0)=$2trillion,andthemarginalpropensitytoconsume(Cy)=0.6,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-39,InvestmentSpending,Fluctuationsininvestmentspendinghavetwosourcestheinterestrateahigherrealinterestratemakesinvestmentprojectsmoreexpensiveandlowersinvestmentbusinessmanagersandinvestorsconfidencethehighertheirconfidence,thehigherisinvestmentspending,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-40,InvestmentSpending,Firmsinvestbecausetheirmanagersbelievethattheinvestmentprojectswillbeprofitablethismeansthatthediscountedreturnsontheinvestmentsmustbegreaterthantheinvestmentscoststhemostrelevantinterestratefordeterminingtheprofitabilityofaninvestmentisthelong-term,real,riskyinterestrate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-41,InvestmentSpending,Investmentspendinghastwocomponentsthebaselinelevelofinvestment(I0)theresponsivenessofinvestmenttochangesintheinterestrate(Ir),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-42,Figure6.10-TheInvestmentFunction,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-43,InvestmentSpending,Examplethebaselinelevelofinvestment(I0)=$2trillion,theinterest-sensitivityofinvestment(Ir)=$10trillion,andtherealinterestrate=5%,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-44,InvestmentSpending,AnalternativewayoflookingatinvestmentistoseethelevelofinvestmentasafunctionofthelevelofthestockmarketThesamethingsthatdeterminethevalueofthestockmarketalsodeterminethelevelofinvestmentexpectedfutureprofits(confidence)therealinterestrate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-45,GovernmentPurchases,Governmentpurchases(G)includepurchasesoflaborandothergoodsandservicesbyfederal,state,andlocalgovernmentsGovernmentpurchasesdonotincludetransferpaymentstransferpaymentsarenegativetaxesEconomistsdonotinquireintowhatdeterminesG(orthetaxratet),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-46,Figure6.11-GovernmentPurchases,TransferPayments,andTaxes,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-47,InternationalTrade,Netexports(NX)isthedifferencebetweengrossexports(GX)andimports(IM),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-48,Figure6.12-GrossExports,Imports,andNetExports,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-49,GrossExports,Thevolumeofgrossexports(GX)dependsontwovariablestherealGDPofthecountrystradingpartners(Yf)therealexchangerate(),XyfistheincreaseinexportsgeneratedbyanincreaseinforeignGDPXistheincreaseinexportsfromanincreaseintherealexchangerate,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-50,Figure6.13-GrossU.S.ExportsandtheRealExchangeRate,1980-1990,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-51,GrossExports,Intherealworld,therearesubstantiallagsthatoccurbetweenchangesintherealexchangerateandchangesinthelevelofgrossexportsachangeintherealexchangeratethisyearwillhavelittleornoeffectongrossexportsthisyear,butwillhaveeffectsongrossexportsone,two,andthreeyearsintothefuture,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-52,Figure6.14-TheJ-Curveinthe1980s,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-53,GrossImports,ThevalueofdemandforimportsdependsondomesticrealGDP(Y)Thequantityofimportsdemandeddependsalsoontherealexchangerate()however,thevalueofimportsislargelyindependentoftherealexchangerategrossimportswillbeaconstantshareofrealGDP,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-54,NetExports,Netexports(NX)arethedifferencebetweengrossexports(GX)andimports(IM),Netexportsdependonthreethingstherealexchangerate()thelevelofrealGDPabroad(Yf)thelevelofrealGDPathome(Y),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-55,TheExchangeRate,ThelivesofforeignexchangespeculatorsareruledbyfearandgreedahigherU.S.interestratemeansthatanindividualcanprofitfrombuyingU.S.bondsthegreaterthisinterestdifferential,thehigherthegreedfactoriftheU.S.realexchangeraterises,profitsfromholdingU.S.bondswillbelowerthehigherthegreedfactor,thelowermustbetheexchangerateinorderforfeartooffsetthegreed,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-56,Figure6.15-GreedandFearinForeignExchangeMarkets,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-57,TheExchangeRate,Therealexchangerateisdeterminedbytwocomponentstheaverageforeignexchangetradersopinionofwhattheexchangerateshouldbeiftherewasnointerestdifferential(0)thesensitivityoftheexchangerate(r)totheinterestratedifferentialbetweendomesticrealinterestrates(r)andforeignrealinterestrates(rf),Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-58,NetExports,Substitutinginfortherealexchangerate,weget,Havingthedefinitionofnetexportsinthisformtellsusdirectlyhowdomesticandforeigninterestratesaffectnetexports,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,6-59,ChapterSummary,Whentheeconomyisatfullemployment,thelevelofrealGDPisequaltopotentialoutput-thelevelofoutputgeneratedbytheaggregateproductionfunction,giventhecurrentstocksoflaborandcapital