第二十六章 公司财务模型和长期计划

ChapterOutline,26.1WhatisCorporateFinancialPlanning?26.2AFinancialPlanningModel:TheIngredients26.3WhatDeterminesGrowth?26.4SomeCaveatsofFinancialPlanningModels26.5Summaryusuallytakentobeatwo-yeartofive-yearperiod.ALevelofAggregationEachdivisionandoperationalunitshouldhaveaplan.Asthecapital-budgetinganalysesofeachofthefirmsdivisionsareaddedup,thefirmaggregatesthesesmallprojectsasabigproject.,26.1WhatisCorporateFinancialPlanning?,ScenarioAnalysisEachdivisionmightbeaskedtopreparethreedifferentplansfortheneartermfuture:AWorstCaseANormalCaseABestCase,WhatWillthePlanningProcessAccomplish?,InteractionsTheplanmustmakeexplicitthelinkagesbetweeninvestmentproposalsandthefirmsfinancingchoices.OptionsTheplanprovidesanopportunityforthefirmtoweighitsvariousoptions.FeasibilityAvoidingSurprisesNobodyplanstofail,butmanyfailtoplan.,26.2AFinancialPlanningModel:TheIngredients,SalesforecastProformastatementsAssetrequirementsFinancialrequirementsPlugEconomicassumptions,SalesForecast,Allfinancialplansrequireasalesforecast.Perfectforeknowledgeisimpossiblesincesalesdependontheuncertainfuturestateoftheeconomy.Businessesthatspecializeinmacroeconomicandindustryprojectscanbehelpinestimatingsales.,ProFormaStatements,Thefinancialplanwillhaveaforecastbalancesheet,aforecastincomestatement,andaforecastsources-and-uses-of-cashstatement.Thesearecalledproformastatementsorproformas.,AssetRequirements,Thefinancialplanwilldescribeprojectedcapitalspending.Inadditionitwillthediscusstheproposedusesofnetworkingcapital.,FinancialRequirements,Theplanwillincludeasectiononfinancingarrangements.Dividendpolicyandcapitalstructurepolicyshouldbeaddressed.Ifnewfundsaretoberaised,theplanshouldconsiderwhatkindsofsecuritiesmustbesoldandwhatmethodsofissuancearemostappropriate.,Plug,Compatibilityacrossvariousgrowthtargetswillusuallyrequireadjustmentinathirdvariable.Supposeafinancialplannerassumesthatsales,costs,andnetincomewillriseatg1.Further,supposethattheplannerdesiresassetsandliabilitiestogrowatadifferentrate,g2.Thesetworatesmaybeincompatibleunlessathirdvariableisadjusted.Forexample,compatibilitymayonlybereachedisoutstandingstockgrowsatathirdrate,g3.,EconomicAssumptions,Theplanmustexplicitlystatetheeconomicenvironmentinwhichthefirmexpectstoresideoverthelifeoftheplan.Interestrateforecastsarepartoftheplan.,ABriefExample,TheRosengartenCorporationisthinkofacquiringanewmachine.Themachinewillincreasesalesfrom$20millionto$22million10%growth.Thefirmbelievesthatitsassetsandliabilitiesgrowdirectlywithitslevelofsales.Itsprofitmarginonsalesis10%,anditsdividend-payoutratiois50%.Willthefirmbeabletofinancegrowthinsaleswithretainedearningsandforecastincreasesindebt?,ABriefExample,ABriefExample:EFN,Theexternalfundsneeded,TheStepsinEstimationofProFormaBalanceSheet:,Expressbalance-sheetitemsthatvarywithsalesasapercentageofsales.Multiplythepercentagesdetermineinstep1byprojectedsalestoobtaintheamountforthefutureperiod.Whennopercentageapplies,simplyinsertthepreviousbalance-sheetfigureintothefutureperiod.,TheStepsinEstimationofProFormaBalanceSheet:(continued),ComputeProjectedretainedearningsasProjectedretainedearnings=Presentretainedearnings+ProjectednetincomeCashdividendsAddtheassetaccountstodetermineprojectedassets.Next,addtheliabilitiesandequityaccountstodeterminethetotalfinancing;anydifferenceistheshortfall.Thisequalstheexternalfundsneeded.UsetheplugtofillEFN.,26.3WhatDeterminesGrowth?,Firmsfrequentlymakegrowthforecastsonexplicitpartoffinancialplanning.Ontheotherhand,thefocusofthiscoursehasbeenonshareholderwealthmaximization,oftenexpressedthroughtheNPVcriterion.Onewaytoreconcilethetwoistothinkofgrowthasanintermediategoalthatleadstohighervalue.Alternatively,ifthefirmiswillingtoacceptnegativeNPVprojectsjusttogrowinsize,theshareholders(butnotnecessarilythemangers)willbeworseoff.,26.3WhatDeterminesGrowth?,Thereisalinkagebetweentheabilityofafirmtogrowanditsfinancialpolicywhenthefirmdoesnotissueequity.TheSustainableGrowthRateinSalesisgivenby:,TheSustainableGrowthRateinSales,T=ratiooftotalassetstosalesp=netprofitmarginonsalesd=dividendpayoutratioAgooduseofthesustainablegrowthrateistocompareafirmssustainablegrowthratewiththeiractualgrowthratetodetermineifthereisabalancebetweengrowthandprofitability.,UsesoftheSustainableGrowthRate,Acommerciallenderwouldwanttocompareapotentialborrowersactualgrowthratewiththeirsustainablegrowthrate.Iftheactualgrowthrateismuchhigherthanthesustainablegrowthrate,theborrowerrunstheriskof“growingbroke”andanylendingmustbeviewedasadownpaymentonamuchmorecomprehensivelendingarrangementthanjustoneroundoffinancing.,26.4SomeCaveatsofFinancialPlanningModels,Financialplanningmodelsdonotindicatewhichfinancialpolicesarethebest.Theyareoftensimplificationsofrealityandtheworldcanchangeinunexpectedways.Withoutsomesortofplan,thefirmmayfinditselfadriftinaseaofchangewithoutarudderforguidance.,Summary&Conclusions,Financialplanningforcesthefirmtothinkaboutandforecastthefuture.ItinvolvesBuildingacorporatefinancialmodel.Describingdifferentscenariosoffuturedevelopmentfrombesttoworstcase.Usingthemodelstoconstructproformafinancialstatements.Runningthemodelunderdifferentscenar