冲突模拟模型中的决策建模

ModellingHumanDecision-MakinginSimulationModelsofConflict,JamesMoffat(SeniorFellow,Dstl,UK),2020/5/20,Abstract,NEC:NetworkEnabledCapability(DigitisationoftheBattlespace)Core:anunderstandingofhowbetterinformationandabetterapproachtoCommandandControlleadtobothbetterdecisionsandimprovedexecutionoroperations.,abstract,Researchonthissubject:AconceptualunderstandingofandimprovedapproachestoC2QuantifiedOperationalAnalysis(OA)models,Maincontent,AnewapproachtotheRepresentationofC2,basedontheunderstandingfromComplexityTheory.DeliberateandRapidPlanningprocessesAnewgenerationofsimulationmodelsValidationofthemodelswithexperimentaldataAssesstheabilitytounderstandandmodelnetwork-centricapproachestoC2,introduction,Cybernetics:thescienceofcontrolandcommunicationintheanimalandinthemachine,variety,Thenumberofdifferentaccessiblestatesofasystem,AshbysLawofRequisiteVariety:thevarietyofthecontrollermustbalancethevarietyofthesystem,development,TheIndustrialAgeTheInformationAge,Needtoconstructarepresentationofthehumancommandanddecision-makingprocesswhichgivesrisetohighvariety,DeliberatePlanning,RapidPlanning,RPimparticular,whenthereareconflictinglocalandglobalvalueswithinthedecision-makingstructure,ValidationofRPusingsDg,Simplified:twolevelsofattributes.Firstsetofattributesmeasuresthelocaloutcomeofthemissionintermsofrelativelyimmediate,“close-to-home”considerations.Thesecondsetofattributesmeasureslonger-termandmoreglobalconcernsrelatedtomorestrategicconsiderations.,Theoreticalperspective,Thechoiceofcourseofactiondependsontheinterpretationofmissionordersandthesubjectivesituationassessment.Therelativeimportanceeachcommanderplacesonlocalandglobalobjectivesiscentraltoaconceptualunderstandingof“value”indecision-making.,Thepractice,Thedecision-makersutilityfunction,U(d,),hastocapturethetrade-offbetweenthedifferentgoalsbyassigningweights(1)=1(1),2(1)(1isasetofshapeparametersdescribinghisutilityfunction)Probabilitydistributionfunctionpj(j|d,2),War-fightingscenario,Peace-supportscenario,Thedecisionmodel,1(1),2(1),U1(d,1),U2(d,1)(1)=1(1),2(1)U(j|d),pj(j),ValidationofRPusingCBG,Informationwaspresentedtothecommanderusingcards,Movetostatej,Statisticalmodel:,assessment,ImplementationoftheRPandprocessandaspectsoftheDPprocessinthesemodels“