金融英语InternationalFinance

Part4InternationalFinance,ChapterOutline：4.1InternationalBalanceSheet4.2ForeignExchangeRate4.3InternationalMonetarySystem4.4ForeignExchangeExposure4.5ForeignExchangeMarket4.6InternationalBankingServices4.7ForeignDirectInvest,Thebalanceofpaymentsaccounts(国际收支平衡表)arethosethatrecordalltransactionsbetweentheresidents（居民）ofacountryandresidentsofallforeignnations.Theyarecomposedofthefollowing:TheCurrentAccount经常账户TheCapitalAccount资本账户TheOfficialReservesAccount储备帐户StatisticalDiscrepancy统计误差,4.1InternationalBalanceSheet,4.1.1TheCurrentAccount,Includesallimportsandexportsofgoodsandservices,unilateraltransfers（经常转移）offoreignaid.Thenetbalanceonthemerchandisetransactionsiscalledthetradebalance.,Goods货物贸易,Exportsareenteredintothecreditside,whileimportsthedebitside.Ifthedebitsexceedthecredits,thenacountryisrunningatradedeficit（贸易逆差）.Ifthecreditsexceedthedebits,thenacountryisrunningatradesurplus（贸易顺差）.,Services服务贸易,Servicesincludeallreceiptsandpaymentsbetweentheresidentsandforeignersontransportation,insurance,travel,communication,investmentreturnssuchasinterest,dividends,andprofitsgeneratedfromloansandinvestments,technology.Receiptsofservicesareenteredintothecreditsidewhilepaymentsthedebitside.,Unilateraltransfers经常转移,Unilateraltransfersaretransactionsthatonlyone-sidedsincethereisnooffsettingpayment(补偿性支付).Itincludesprivatetransfersandgovernmenttransfers.,4.1.2TheCapitalAccount,Thecapitalaccountmeasuresthedifferencebetweenacountryssalesofassetstoforeignersandpurchasesofforeignassets.ThecapitalaccountiscomposedofForeignDirectInvestment(FDI，外商直接投资),portfolioinvestments（间接投资）andotherinvestments.,Capitalaccountusuallyconsistsofthreesub-accounts:Directinvestment(直接投资):itisusuallydefinedasinvestmentinenterpriseslocatedinthecountrybut“effectively”controlledbyresidentsinanothercountry.,Portfolioinvestments（证券投资，间接投资）:itdesignatesalllong-termcapitalflowsthatdonotgiveinvestorseffectivecontrolovertheirinvestments,whichinvolvemainlyloansandsecurities.,otherinvestmentsmainlyreferstotheshort-termcapitalrecordsthenetchangesininternationalassetsandliabilitieswithanoriginalmaturityofoneyearorlessinwhichdomesticresidents(excludingofficialmonetaryinstitutions)arecreditorsanddebtors.,Short-termcapitalflowsincludethenormal,everydayreceiptsandpaymentsarisingoutofinternationaltradeandfinancethatoccurmainlythroughshiftintheownershipofdemanddeposits（活期存款）andotherliquiddepositsinbanksathomeandabroad.,Estimatesofprivateshort-termcapitalmovementaretheleastreliableofthebalanceofpaymentsitemsbecauseoftheirvariety,intangibility（无形的）andprivatecharacter.,4.1.3TheOfficialReservesAccount,Officialreservesassetscomprise:foreignexchangeinconvertiblecurrencies(可自由兑换外币),reservepositionintheInternationalMonetaryFund（IMF储备头寸）,allocationofSpecialDrawingRights（SDR）,GoldStock（黄金储备）.,4.1.4StatisticalDiscrepancy,Thisaccountisusedtodescribesomeomissions（遗漏）andmisrecorded（未记录）transactionstomakethetotaldebitsandcreditsintoanarithmeticequilibrium（算术平衡）.,4.1.5TheBalanceofPaymentsIdentity,BCA+BKA+BRA=0whereBCA=balanceoncurrentaccountBKA=balanceoncapitalaccountBRA=balanceonthereservesaccountUnderapureflexibleexchangerate,BCA+BKA=0,Exhibit4.1U.S.BalanceofPaymentsDatain2000,U.S.BalanceofPaymentsData,Inthissheet,thebalanceofpaymentsidentityhold:BCA+BKA=BRA,($444.69)+$444.26+$0.73=$0.30=($0.30),BalanceofPaymentsTrends,Since1982theU.S.hasexperiencedcontinuousdeficitsonthecurrentaccountandcontinuoussurplusesonthecapitalaccount.Duringthesameperiod,Japanhasexperiencedtheopposite.,BalancesontheCurrent(BCA)andCapital(BKA)AccountsoftheUnitedStates,Source:IMFInternationalFinancialStatisticsYearbook,2000,BalancesontheCurrent(BCA)andCapital(BKA)AccountsofJapan,Source:IMFInternationalFinancialStatisticsYearbook,2000,4.2ForeignExchangeRate,Anexchangerateisthepriceatwhichonecurrencycanbeexchangedforanother.Intheory,exchangeratesshouldbeinaccordwithpurchasingpowerparity(PPP,购买力平价理论).Ifthepricelevelinacountryincreasesbecauseofinflation,itscurrencyshoulddepreciate（贬值）.,4.2.1Fixedrates,For25yearsafterWorldWar,thelevelsofmostmajorcurrenciesweredeterminedbygovernments.TheywerefixedorpeggedagainsttheUSdollar（与美元挂钩）,andthedollarwaspeggedagainstgold（与黄金挂钩）.Itwasendedin1971,becauseofthefollowinginflationintheUSA,theFederalReservedidnothaveenoughgoldtoguaranteetheAmericancurrency.,Today,acountrycanfixitsvaluetoanothercountryscurrency.Acountrycanfixitscurrencytoa“basket”ofothercurrencies.Sameasdiversifyingaportfolio(Notputtingallyoureggsinonebasket)SpecialDrawingRight(SDR)：Abasketoffourmajorworldcurrencies.Governmentsattempttokeepthevaluefixedforrelativelylongperiodsoftimetoreducetradeuncertainties.,Howtokeepexchangeratefixed?,Itcantmaintainthevalueforlong.Ifthedemandforthecurrencyfalls,itspricewouldfallaswell.Theonlywaythepricecanbekeptupisforthegovernmentpromisingtomaintaintheoriginalleveltoentertheforeignexchangemarketandbuytheamountthatwillbringthequantitydemandedbacktotheoriginallevel.,DefendingaFixedExchangeRate,Tobuyorsellforeigncurrencies(inordertoinfluencetheprevailingexchangerate),agovernmentmusthaveforeignexchangereserves.Itisnotlikelytohaveenoughreservestodefendagainstamassiveandsustainedattackonthecurrency.Thegovernmentcanalsomakelong-termadjustmentsofitsmacroeconomic(monetaryand/orfiscalpolicy).Budgetausterity（紧缩预算）avoidsinflationandtakesdownwardpressure（贬值）offcurrency.,4.2.2Peggedexchangerate联系汇率制,Peggedexchangeratereferstosettingatargetedvalueforacountrysforeignexchange,anditindicatesthegovernmenthassomeabilitytomovethepeg.Thegovernmentmaychangethepeggedrateifasubstantialdisequilibrium（不平衡）inthecountrysinternationalpositiondevelops(e.g.,demandforthecurrencyistooweaktomaintainthedesiredvalue).,Crawlingpeg爬行盯住,Acrawlingpegcanbechangedoften(monthly,say)accordingtoasetofindicatorsorthejudgmentofthecountrysmonetaryauthority.Indicators（指示器）:ThedifferenceofinflationratesInternationalreserveassetsGrowthofthemoneysupplyThecurrentactualmarketexchangeraterelativetothecentralparvalueofthepeggedrate,4.2.3Floatingrates浮动汇率,Floatingexchangeratesmeansthatexchangeratesaredeterminedbypeoplebuyingandsellingcurrenciesintheforeignexchangemarkets.Freelyfloatingexchangerate（自由浮动）:fullydeterminedbymarketforces:thelevelofsupplyanddemand.Managedfloatingexchangerates（有管理的浮动汇率制）:withgovernmentsintervention,KEYWORDS,stimulusplan刺激计划activefiscalpoliciesandmoderatelyeasymonetarypolicies积极的财政政策，适度宽松的货币政策expanddomesticdemand扩大内需spurdomesticconsumption促进消费infrastructureconstruction基础设施建设value-addedtaxreform增值税改革,thestimulusplanwithtenbigpoliciesinvolved$586billion(4trillionRMB)inarangeofareasincludingtheconstructionofrailroads,highwaysandairports,boostingofservicessector,agriculture,educationandpublichealth,improvementofpeoplesincome,两年投4万亿扩内需国家出台十大措施促增长,一是加快建设保障性安居工程。二是加快农村基础设施建设。三是加快铁路、公路和机场等重大基础设施建设。四是加快医疗卫生、文化教育事业发展。五是加强生态环境建设。六是加快自主创新和结构调整。七是加快地震灾区灾后重建各项工作。八是提高城乡居民收入。九是在全国所有地区、所有行业全面实施增值税转型改革，鼓励企业技术改造，减轻企业负担亿元。十是加大金融对经济增长的支持力度,4.3.1EvolutionoftheInternationalMonetarySystem4.3.2CurrentExchangeRateArrangements4.3.3EuropeanMonetarySystem4.3.4TheMexicanPesoCrisis4.3.5TheAsianCurrencyCrisis4.3.6FixedversusFlexibleExchangeRateRegimes,4.3InternationalMonetarySystem,4.3.1EvolutionoftheInternationalMonetarySystem,Bimetallism（复本位制）:Before1875ClassicalGoldStandard:1875-1914InterwarPeriod:1915-1944BrettonWoodsSystem:1945-1972TheFlexibleExchangeRateRegime:1973-Present,Bimetallism:Before1875,A“doublestandard”（复本位制）inthesensethatbothgoldandsilverwereusedasmoney.Somecountrieswereonthegoldstandard（金本位）,someonthesilverstandard（银本位）,someonboth.Bothgoldandsilverwereusedasinternationalmeansofpaymentandtheexchangeratesamongcurrenciesweredeterminedbyeithertheirgoldorsilvercontents.GreshamsLaw（格勒善法则，劣币驱逐良币）impliedthatitwouldbetheleastvaluablemetalthatwouldtendtocirculate.,ClassicalGoldStandard:1875-1914,Duringthisperiodinmostmajorcountries:Goldalonewasassuredofunrestrictedcoinage（制造金币）Therewastwo-wayconvertibility（双向可兑换）betweengoldandnationalcurrenciesatastableratio.Goldcouldbefreelyexportedorimported.Theexchangeratebetweentwocountryscurrencieswouldbedeterminedbytheirrelativegoldcontents.,Forexample,ifthedollarispeggedtogoldatU.S.$30=1ounceofgold,andtheBritishpoundispeggedtogoldat6=1ounceofgold,itmustbethecasethattheexchangerateisdeterminedbytherelativegoldcontents:,ClassicalGoldStandard:1875-1914,$30=6$5=1,ClassicalGoldStandard:1875-1914,Highlystableexchangeratesundertheclassicalgoldstandardprovidedanenvironmentthatwasconduciveto（有益于）internationaltradeandinvestment.Misalignment（不一致）ofexchangeratesandinternationalimbalancesofpaymentwereautomaticallycorrectedbytheprice-specie-flowmechanism（价格-货币-流动机制）.,Price-Specie-FlowMechanism,SupposeGreatBritainexportedmoretoFrancethanFranceexportedtoGreatBritain.Thiscannotpersistunderagoldstandard.NetexportofgoodsfromGreatBritaintoFrancewillbeaccompaniedbyanetflowofgoldfromFrancetoGreatBritain.ThisflowofgoldwillleadtoalowerpricelevelinFranceand,atthesametime,ahigherpricelevelinBritain.TheresultantchangeinrelativepricelevelswillslowexportsfromGreatBritainandencourageexportsfromFrance.,ClassicalGoldStandard:1875-1914,Thereareshortcomings:Thesupplyofnewlymintedgold（铸造金币）issorestrictedthatthegrowthofworldtradeandinvestmentcanbehamperedforthelackofsufficientmonetaryreserves.Eveniftheworldreturnedtoagoldstandard,anynationalgovernmentcouldabandonthestandard.,InterwarPeriod:1915-1944,Exchangeratesfluctuatedascountrieswidelyused“predatory”depreciations（掠夺性贬值）oftheircurrenciesasameansofgainingadvantageintheworldexportmarket.Theresultforinternationaltradeandinvestmentwasprofoundlydetrimental（有害的）.,BrettonWoodsSystem:1945-1972,Namedfora1944meetingof44nationsatBrettonWoods,NewHampshire.Thepurposewastodesignapostwarinternationalmonetarysystem.Thegoalwastokeepexchangeratestablewithoutthegoldstandard.TheresultwasthecreationoftheIMFandtheWorldBank.,BrettonWoodsSystem:1945-1972,UndertheBrettonWoodssystem,theU.S.dollarwaspeggedtogoldat$35perounceandothercurrencieswerepeggedtotheU.S.dollar.Eachcountrywasresponsibleformaintainingitsexchangeratewithin1%oftheadoptedparvaluebybuyingorsellingforeignreservesasnecessary.TheBrettonWoodssystemwasadollar-basedgoldexchangestandard(以美元为基础的金汇兑本位制).,TheFlexibleExchangeRateRegime:1973-Present.,FlexibleexchangeratesweredeclaredacceptabletotheIMFmembers.Centralbankswereallowedtointerveneintheexchangeratemarkets.Non-oil-exportingcountries(非石油输出国)andless-developedcountriesweregivengreateraccesstoIMFfunds.,4.3.2CurrentExchangeRateArrangements,FreeFloatThelargestnumberofcountries,about48,allowmarketforcestodeterminetheircurrencysvalue.ManagedFloatAbout25countriescombinegovernmentinterventionwithmarketforcestosetexchangerates.PeggedtoanothercurrencySuchastheU.S.dollaroreuro(throughfrancormark).NonationalcurrencySomecountriesdonotbotherprintingtheirown,theyjustusetheU.S.dollar.Forexample,Ecuador（厄瓜多尔）,Panama,andElSalvador（萨尔瓦多）havedollarized.,4.3.3EuropeanMonetarySystem,ObjectivesofEuropeanMonetarySystem:ToestablishazoneofmonetarystabilityinEurope.Tocoordinateexchangeratepoliciesvis-vis（相对于）non-Europeancurrencies.TopavethewayfortheEuropeanMonetaryUnion欧洲货币联盟）.,WhatIstheEuro?,TheeuroisthesinglecurrencyoftheEuropeanMonetaryUnionwhichwasadoptedby11MemberStateson1January1999.Theseoriginalmemberstateswere:Belgium（比利时）,Germany,Spain,France,Ireland,Italy,Luxemburg（卢森堡）,Finland（芬兰）,Austria（奥地利）,Portugal（葡萄牙）andtheNetherlands（荷兰）.,Whatistheofficialsignoftheeuro?,Thesignforthenewsinglecurrencylookslikean“E”withtwoclearlymarked,horizontalparallellinesacrossit.ItwasinspiredbytheGreekletterepsilon（第五个希腊字母）,inreferencetothecradleofEuropeancivilizationandtothefirstletterofthewordEurope.,ValueoftheEuroinU.S.Dollars,January1999toOctober2008,TheLong-TermImpactoftheEuro,TheeurossuccesswilladvancethepoliticalintegrationofEuropeinamajorway,eventuallymakinga“UnitedStatesofEurope”feasible.TheU.S.dollarlosesitsplaceasthedominantworldcurrency.TheeuroandtheU.S.dollarbecomethetwomajorcurrencies.,4.3.4TheMexicanPesoCrisis,On20December,1994,theMexicangovernmentannouncedaplantodevaluethepesoagainstthedollarby14percent.Thisdecisionchangedcurrencytradersexpectationsaboutthefuturevalueofthepeso.Intheirrushtogetout，thepesofellbyasmuchas40percent.,TheMexicanPesoCrisis,TheMexicanPesocrisisisuniqueinthatitrepresentsthefirstseriousinternationalfinancialcrisistouchedoff（触发）bycross-borderflightofforeigncapital（跨国资本外逃）.Twolessonsemerge:Itisessentialtohaveamultinationalsafetynet（安全网）inplacetosafeguardtheworldfinancialsystemfromsuchcrises.Aninflux（流入）offoreigncapitalcanleadtoanovervaluationinthefirstplace.,4.3.5TheAsianCurrencyCrisis,TheAsiancurrencycrisisturnedouttobefarmoreseriousthantheMexicanpesocrisisintermsoftheextentofthecontagion（蔓延）andtheseverityoftheresultanteconomicandsocialcosts.Manyfirmswithforeigncurrencybondswereforcedintobankruptcy.Theregionexperiencedadeep,widespreadrecession.,CurrencyCrisisExplanations,Intheory,acurrencysvaluemirrorsthefundamentalstrengthofitsunderlyingeconomy,relativetoothereconomies,Inthelongrun.Intheshortrun,currencytradersexpectationsplayamuchmoreimportantrole.Thus,fearsofdepreciationbecomeself-fulfillingprophecies(预言).Intodaysenvironment,tradersandlenders,usingthemostmoderncommunications,actbyfight-or-flight(战斗或逃跑)instincts.,4.3.6FixedversusFlexibleExchangeRateRegimes,Argumentsinfavorofflexibleexchangerates:Easierexternaladjustments.Nationalpolicyautonomy.Argumentsagainstflexibleexchangerates:Exchangerateuncertaintymayhamperinternationaltrade.Nosafeguardstopreventcrises.,ChinasCPIRises4%inOctober,Chinasconsumerpriceindex,themaingauge(标尺)ofinflation,rosefourpercentyearonyear（与去年同期相比）inOctober.Thefigure,releasedbytheNationalBureauofStatistics（国家统计局）onTuesday,wasdown0.6percentfromthatofSeptemberandithasdroppedforsixconsecutivemonths.,QiJingmei,aseniorresearcherwiththeStateInformationCentre（国家信息中心）,attributesthedeclinetothegovernmentsmacroeconomiccontrolsindealingwiththerapidriseoftheCPIinthefirsthalfoftheyear.SheaddsthedropinfoodpricesalsocontributedtothedeclineofOctobersCPI.,Meanwhile,globalfoodpricesdroppeddramaticallyafterthehikeinthefirsthalf.Italsograduallyloweredthedomesticfoodprices.QiJingmeisayssheremainsoptimisticabouttheCPIintheupcomingtwomonths.,IthinktheCPIinthefourthquarterwillcontinuetodecline.Itwilleasepressureonthegovernmenttobeatinflation,andshiftthefocusfrommacro-economiccontroltosustainingeconomicgrowth.TheaverageCPIinthefirst10monthsof2008rose6.7percentyearonyear,higherthantheyearlygoalof4.8percent.,4.4ForeignExchangeExposure,Changesinexchangeratescanaffectnotonlyfirmsthataredirectlyengagedininternationaltradebutalsopurelydomesticfirms.ConsideraU.S.bicyclemanufacturerwhosourcesandsellsonlyintheU.S.Sincethefirmsproductcompetesagainstimportedbicycles,itissubjecttoforeignexchangeexposure.,EconomicExposure经济风险Exchangerateriskasappliedtothefirmsvalue.TransactionExposure交易风险Exchangerateriskasappliedtothefirmshomecurrencycashflows.TranslationExposure折算风险Exchangerateriskasappliedtothefirmsconsolidatedfinancialstatements.,ThreeTypesofExposure,4.4.1EconomicExposure,Exchangerateriskasappliedtothefirmscompetitiveposition.Anyanticipatedchangesintheexchangerateswouldhavebeenalreadydiscountedandreflectedinthefirmsvalue.Economicexposurecanbedefinedastheextenttowhichthevalueofthefirmwouldbeaffectedbyunanticipatedchangesinexchangerates.,HowtoMeasureEconomicExposure,Economicexposureisthesensitivityofthefuturehomecurrencyvalueofthefirmsassetsandliabilitiesandthefirmsoperatingcashflowtorandomchangesinexchangerates.Thereexiststatisticalmeasurementsofsensitivity.Sensitivityofthefuturehomecurrencyvaluesofthefirmsassetsandliabilitiestorandomchangesinexchangerates.Sensitivityofthefirmsoperatingcashflowstorandomchangesinexchangerates.,ChannelsofEconomicExposure,FirmValue,Homecurrencyvalueofassetsandliabilities,Futureoperatingcashflows,Exchangeratefluctuations,HowtoMeasureEconomicExposure,IfaU.S.MNCweretorunaregressiononthedollarvalue(P)ofitsBritishassetsonthedollarpoundexchangerate,S($/),theregressionwouldbeoftheform:P=a+bS+e,Whereaistheregressionconstant,eistherandomerrorterm(随意误差项)withmeanzero.,Theregressioncoefficientbmeasuresthesensitivityofthedollarvalueoftheassets(P)totheexchangerate,S.,HowtoMeasureEconomicExposure,Theexposurecoefficient,b,isdefinedasfollows:,WhereCov(P,S)isthecovariance(协方差)betweenthedollarvalueoftheassetandtheexchangerate,andVar(S)isthevarianceoftheexchangerate.,HowtoMeasureEconomicExposure,Theexposurecoefficientshowsthattherearetwosourcesofeconomicexposure:,thevarianceoftheexchangerate,thecovariancebetweenthedollarvalueoftheassetandexchangerate,4.4.2TransactionExposure,Therisk,facedbycompaniesinvolvedininternationaltrade,thatcurrencyexchangerateswillchangeafterthecompanieshavealreadyenteredintofinancialobligations.Suchexposuretofluctuatingexchangeratescanleadtomajorlossesforfirms.,Often,whenacompanyidentifiessuchexposuretochangingexchangerates,itwillchoosetoimplementahedgingstrategy,usingforwardratestolockinanexchangerateandthuseliminatetheexposuretotherisk.,FinancialHedging,Thegoalistostabilizethefirmscashflowsinthenearterm.FinancialHedginginvolvesuseofderivativesecuritiessuchasforwards,futures,currencyoptions,currencyswaps,amongothers.,4.4.3TranslationExposure,Theriskthatacompanysequities,assets,liabilitiesorincomewillchangeinvalueasaresultofexchangeratechanges.Thisoccurswhenafirmdenominatesaportionofitsequities,assets,liabilitiesorincomeinaforeigncurrency.Itisappliedtothefirmsconsolidatedfinancialstatements（包括子公司的财务报表）.,Accountantsusevariousmethodstoinsulate(隔离)firmsfromthesetypesofrisks,suchasconsolidationtechniquesforthefirmsfinancialstatementsandtheuseofthemosteffectivecostaccountingevaluationprocedures.Inmanycases,thisexposurewillberecordedinthefinancialstatementsasanexchangerategain(orloss).,4.5ForeignExchangeMarket,4.5.1FunctionandStructureoftheFOREXMarket4.5.2TheSpotMarket4.5.3TheForwardMarket,4.5ForeignExchangeMarket,4.5.1FunctionandStructureoftheFOREXMarketFXMarketParticipantsCorrespondentBankingRelationships4.5.2TheSpotMarket4.5.3TheForwardMarket,4.5ForeignExchangeMarket,4.5.1FunctionandStructureoftheFOREXMarket4.5.2TheSpotMarketSpotRateQuo