布兰查德宏观经济学 第四版 ppt 第02章

2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,2,AggregateOutput,Nationalincomeandproductaccountsareanaccountingsystemusedtomeasureofaggregateeconomicactivity.Themeasureofaggregateoutputinthenationalincomeaccountsisgrossdomesticproduct,orGDP,whichcanbemeasuredorthoughtfromtheproductionside(aggregateproduction),ortheincomeside(aggregateincome),andtheresultsofbothwaysarealwaysequalintheory.,2-1,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,3,SNA(SystemofNationalAccount),联合国SNA体系的五大统计表。,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,4,GDP:ProductionandIncome,TherearethreewaysofdefiningGDP:GDPisthevalueofthefinalgoodsandservicesproducedintheeconomyduringagivenperiod.Afinalgoodisagoodthatisdestinedforfinalconsumption.Anintermediategoodisagoodusedintheproductionofanothergood.,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,5,GDP:ProductionandIncome,TherearethreewaysofdefiningGDP:,GDPisthesumofvalueaddedintheeconomyduringagivenperiod.Valueaddedequalsthevalueofafirmsproductionminusthevalueoftheintermediategoodsitusesinproduction.,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,6,GDP:ProductionandIncome,TherearethreewaysofdefiningGDP:,GDPisthesumoftheincomesintheeconomyduringagivenperiod.,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,7,Steelcompany(firm1)carcompany(firm2)Revenuesfromsales$100Revenuesfromsales$210Expenses$80Expenses$170wages$80wages$70Steelpurchases$100profit$20profit$40,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,8,TableA1-1U.SGDP:Theincomeside,2001(billionsofdollars),FromgrossdomesticproducttoPersonaldisposableincome:1.Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)102082.Plus:receiptoffactorincomefromtherestoftheworld3353.Minus:paymentsoffactorincometotherestoftheworld3414.Equals:grossnationalproduct(GNP)102025.minus:consumptionoffixedcapital-13516.Equals:Netnationalproduct(NNP)88517.Minus:indirecttaxes-7948.Minus:others,includingstasticaldiscrepancy1609.EqualS:Nationalincome(NI)821710.Minus:corporateprofits-76711.plus:personaldividendincome41612.Minus:netinterst-55413.Plus:personalinterestincome99314.plus:governmentandbusinesstransfers114915.Minus:contributionsforsocialinsurance-73116.Equals:personalincome872317.Minus:personaltaxandnontaxpayment-130618.Equals:Personaldisposableincome7417,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,9,TableA1-3U.SGDP:Theproductside,2001(billionsofdollars),1.Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)102082.Personalconsumptionexpenditures70643.Durablegoods8584.Nondurablegoods20555.Services41516.Grossprivatedomesticfixedinvestment16927.Nonresidential12468.Structures3309.Equipmentandsoftware91610.Residential44611.Governmentpurchases183912.Federal61613.Nationaldefense39914.Nondefense21715.Stateandlocal122316.Netexports-33017.Export105018.Imports-138019.Changesinbusinessinventories-58,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,10,NominalandRealGDP,NominalGDPisthesumofthequantitiesoffinalgoodsproducedtimestheircurrentprice.NominalGDPincreasesovertimebecause:Theproductionofmostgoodsincreasesovertime.Thepricesofmostgoodsalsoincreaseovertime.RealGDPisconstructedasthesumofthequantitiesoffinalgoodstimesconstant(ratherthancurrent)prices.,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,11,NominalandRealGDP,ToconstructrealGDP,multiplythenumberofcarsineachyearbyacommonprice.Supposeweusethepriceofthecarin2000asthecommonprice.Thisapproachgivesus,ineffect,realGDPin2000dollars.,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,12,NominalandRealGDP,NominalGDPisalsocalleddollarGDPorGDPincurrentdollars.RealGDPisalsocalledGDPintermsofgoods,GDPinconstantdollars,GDPadjustedforinflation,orGDPin2000dollars.GDPwillrefertorealGDP,andYtwilldenoterealGDPinyeart.NominalGDPwillbedenotedbyadollarsigninfrontofit:$Yt.,RealGDP,TechnologicalProgress,andthePriceofComputers,Hedonicpricingputsanimplicitpriceoneachofagoodscharacteristics.,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,13,NominalandRealGDP,From1960to2003,nominalGDPincreasedbyafactorof21.RealGDPincreasedbyafactorof4.,NominalandRealGDPU.S.GDPSince1960,Figure1-2,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,14,NominalandRealGDP,RealGDPpercapitaistheratioofrealGDPtothepopulationofthecountry.GDPgrowthequals:,PeriodsofpositiveGDPgrowtharecalledexpansions.PeriodsofnegativeGDPgrowtharecalledrecessions.,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,15,NominalandRealGDP,Figure2-2,GrowthRateofU.S.GDPSince1960,Since1960,theU.S.economyhasgonethroughaseriesofexpansionsinterruptedbyshortrecessions.,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,16,TheOtherMajorMacroeconomicVariables,GDPisobviouslythemostimportantmacroeconomicvariable.Buttwoothervariablestellusaboutotherimportantaspectsofhowaneconomicisperforming:UnemploymentInflation,2-2,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,17,TheUnemploymentRate,laborforce=employment+unemploymentL=N+UUnemploymentrate:,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,18,失业率的实质,衡量劳动力市场供需缺口的指标中国有关失业的定义及其缺陷城镇登记失业率城镇调查失业率学者的努力：推测农村剩余劳动力、真实城镇失业率计划经济时期的失业？,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,19,城镇登记失业率,指有非农业户口，在一定的劳动年龄内（16岁以上及男50岁以下、女45岁以下），有劳动能力，无业而要求就业，并在当地就业服务机构进行求职登记的人员。出处:中国统计年鉴缺陷:没有包含以下人员农民工50岁以上男、45岁以上女未登记的失业人员下岗人员。,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,20,城镇调查失业率,指城镇常住人口中一定年龄以上，有劳动能力，在调查期间无工作，当前有就业可能并以某种方式寻找工作的人员。在城镇劳动力调查中对城镇16岁及以上，具有劳动能力并同时符合以下各项条件的人员列为失业人员：(1)在调查周内未从事为取得劳动报酬或经营利润的劳动，也没有处于就业定义中的暂时未工作状态；(2)在某一特定期间内采取了某种方式寻找工作；(3)当前如有工作机会可以在一个特定期间内应聘就业或从事自营职业。出处:中国劳动统计年鉴。缺陷:没有包含下岗人员。,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,21,中国有关失业的统计,中国统计年鉴、劳动统计年鉴：城镇登记失业率劳动统计年鉴：城镇调查失业率2000年人口普查学者的推测：农村剩余劳动力、真实城镇失业率,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,22,TheUnemploymentRate,Since1960,theU.S.unemploymentratehasfluctuatedbetween3and10%,goingdownduringexpansions,andgoingupduringrecessions.,U.S.UnemploymentRateSince1960.,Figure2-3,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,23,中国城镇的失业状况（万人、）,出处:(1)登记失业者及登记失业率的数据见中国统计年鉴或中国劳动统计年鉴。(2)调查失业率的数据见中国劳动统计年鉴(1998、1999)或胡安钢(1997)。(3)真实失业者及真实失业率的数据见胡安钢(1997)。(4)真实失业者及真实失业率的数据为笔者依据上述资料做的推测。,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,24,TheUnemploymentRate,TheCurrentPopulationSurvey(CPS)isusedtocomputetheunemploymentrate.Onlythoselookingforworkarecountedasunemployed.Thosenotworkingandnotlookingforworkarenotinthelaborforce.Peoplewithoutjobswhogiveuplookingforworkareknownasdiscouragedworkers.Participationrate,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,25,WhyDoEconomistsCareAboutUnemployment?,Economistscareaboutunemploymentfortworeasons:Becauseofitsdirecteffectsonthewelfareoftheunemployed.Becauseitsignalsthattheeconomymaynotbeusingsomeofitsresourcesefficiently.,DidSpainReallyHavea24%UnemploymentRatein1994?,Theundergroundeconomyisnotmeasuredinofficialstatistics.,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,26,TheInflationRate,Inflationisasustainedriseinthegenerallevelofpricesthepricelevel.Theinflationrateistherateatwhichthepricelevelincreases.(Conversely,deflationisasustaineddeclineinthepricelevel.Itcorrespondstoanegativeinflationrate).Deflationisrare,butitdoeshappen.Japanhasexperienceddeflationsincethelate1990s.,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,27,TheGDPDeflator,TheGDPdeflatoriswhatiscalledanindexnumbersetequalto100inthebaseyear.TherateofchangeintheGDPdeflatorequalstherateofinflation:,NominalGDPisequaltotheGDPdeflatortimesrealGDP:,TheGDPdeflatorinyeart,Pt,isdefinedastheratioofnominalGDPtorealGDPinyeart:,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,28,TheConsumerPriceIndex,TheGDPdeflatormeasurestheaveragepriceofoutput,whiletheconsumerpriceindex,orCPI,measurestheaveragepriceofconsumption,orequivalently,thecostofliving.TheCPIgivesthecostindollarsofaspecificlistofgoodsandservicesovertime,whichattemptstorepresenttheconsumptionbasketofatypicalurbanconsumer.,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,29,TheConsumerPriceIndex,CPI的设计中国CPI的八大类商品和服务：食品权重是336、烟酒及饮品是144、衣着是9、家庭设备用品及其维修服务是62、交通和通讯是93、娱乐教育文化用品及服务是45、居住是136、其他9.4。美国CPI是指包括200多种各式各样的商品和服务价格的平均变化值。这些商品与服务又分为8个主要类别及不同的权重。如住宅（421）、食品和饮料（154）、交通运输（169）、医疗（61）、服装（40）、娱乐（58）、教育和交流（59）、其他商品和服务（38）。,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,30,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,31,中国7月份通胀率创10年新高,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,32,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,33,TheConsumerPriceIndex,Thesetofgoodsproducedintheeconomyisnotthesameasthesetofgoodspurchasedbyconsumersfortworeasons:Someofthegoodsaresoldtofirms,thegovernment,ortoforeigners.Someofthegoodsarenotproduceddomesticallybutareimportedfromabroad.,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,34,TheConsumerPriceIndex,InflationRate,UsingtheCPIandtheGDPDeflatorsince1960,Figure2-4,Theinflationrates,computedusingeithertheCPIortheGDPdeflator,arelargelysimilar.,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,35,TheConsumerPriceIndex,Figure2-4yieldstwoconclusions:TheCPIandtheGDPdeflatormovetogethermostofthetime.Inmostyears,thetwoinflationratesdifferbylessthan1%.Thereareclearexceptions,however.Inboth1974andinthelate1970s,theincreaseintheCPIwassignificantlylargerthantheincreaseintheGDPdeflator.,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,36,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,37,WhyDoEconomistsCareAboutInflation?,Economistscareaboutinflationfortworeasons:Duringperiodsofinflation,notallpricesandwagesriseproportionately,inflationaffectsincomedistribution.Inflationleadstootherdistortions.,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard,38,TheShortRun,theMediumRun,theLongRun,Outputisdeterminedby:demandintheshortrun,say,afewyears,theleveloftechnology,thecapitalstock,andthelaborforceinthemediumrun,say,adecadeorso,factorssuchaseducation,research,saving,andthequalityofgovernmentinthelongrun,say,ahalfcenturyormore.,2-3,2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOli