麦肯锡—伊拉克战后重建机会研究报告(英文)(ppt 31页).ppt

OVERVIEWOFTHEIRAQOPPORTUNITY,DoingBusinessinIraq,Amman,5thJune2003,AchmedAl-ShahrabaniMcKinseyCountryWatch;EIUcountryriskreportonIraq2003,2002,50-60,25-35,1980,DEVELOPMENTOFIRAQSREALGDP*-1980TO2002,Overthepastdecade,IraqsrealGDPfellby50%,USDbillion,ESTIMATE,-50%,GDPestimatesfor2002subjecttowidevariation(USD24-60billion),*Purchasingpowerparitymethod,currentpricesSource:CIAWorldFactbook;CountryWatch,2002,3.8-4.5,1.0-1.4,1980,ESTIMATE,DEVELOPMENTOFIRAQSREALGDP*PERCAPITA-1980TO2002,andpurchasingpowerparityonindividuallevelevenfurther,USDthousands,GDP/capitaestimatessubjecttowidevariation(USD1.000-2.500),-70%,Source:GlobalInsightWMM2.Q.2003,Iraq,SaudiArabia,COMPARISONOFGDPDEVELOPMENTIRAQVS.SAUDIARABIA-1970TO2000,IraqhassufferedasignificantreductioninGDPoverlast25years,inbillionUSDinpricesandexchangeratesof2000,Source:GlobalInsightWMM2.Q.2003,Iraq,SaudiArabia,COMPARISONOFGDPPERCAPITADEVELOPMENTIRAQVS.SAUDIARABIA-1970TO2000,Inthelate70tiesIraqsGDPpercapitawasatparwithSaudiArabia,in000USDinpricesandexchangeratesof2000,*BasedonaGDPofUSD30billionandapopulationof24millionSource:EIUcountryprofileIraq,Jordan,Iran,Iraq,SaudiArabia,Syria,*,ESTIMATE,COMPARISONOFGDPPERCAPITA-2002,IraqscurrentGDPpercapitaiscomparabletoSyriaandIran,USDthousands,Source:Economistintelligenceunit2002;OANDA.COM,Iraqiinflationrates%,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,ExchangeratesIraqiDinarperUSD(blackmarketrate),Hugebudgetdeficitsleadto“printingofmoney”,BUT:OfficialexchangeratehasbeenID0,31totheUSDsince1983,2001,2002,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,CurrentexchangerateID900-1.000=1USD,ESTIMATE,DEVELOPMENTOFINFLATIONANDEXCHANGERATES1996TO2002,Iraqhasshownhighinflationcoupledwithstrongdepreciationofthecurrency,Source:EIUcountrydata,Externaldebt$bn,Iraq,Syria,Jordan,Iran,230-485,10,91,113,%ofGPD,60-130,MaincausesofuncertaintyareAccruedinterest“Assistance”fundsinIran-IraqwarClaimsfollowingGulfwar1991,ESTIMATE,COMPARISONOFEXTERNALLIABILITIES-2001,Iraqhassignificantliabilitiesandcanbeconsideredbankrupt,*Estimatesrangefrom$103.4$129.4bnSource:Reuters;InstituteforinternationalEconomics,25,18,13,10,SaudiArabia,GulfStatesexcl.Kuwait,Kuwait,ParisClubexclRussia,France,8,Russia,8,France,2,USA,3,CommercialBankCreditors,2,Bulgaria,2,Poland,Czech,Romania,1,MultilateralInstitutions,1,Yugoslavia,2,TradeClaims,24,Others,Totalexternaldebt,119*,14-25,Kuwaitreparationpayments,133144,Totalclaims,IraqregardedtheloansfromSaudiArabiaandKuwaitasgrantpaymentsforits1980waragainstIran,Comments,Creditor,Amountprincipalandoverdueinterest,ESTIMATE,BREAKDOWNOFIRAQILIABILITIES2001,IraqsliabilitiesaremainlyloansfromtheGulfstatesgrantedtoIraqinthe80tiesduringthewarwithIran,(USDbn),TheIMFandWorldBankareowedlessthan$200m,Source:EIUCountryprofileIraq2002,France,Australia,China,Jordan,Top5importsources,Top5exportdestinations,U.S.,France,Jordan,Italy,Spain,Italy,Mainlyoilexportswithinthefoodforoilprogram,MAJORIRAQITRADINGPARTNERS-2001,Franceismostimportantsupplier,theUSmostimportantcustomerofIraqiproducts,USDmillion,AGENDA,OverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRecentdevelopments,Source:McKinsey,ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSION,THREEDEVELOPMENTSCENARIOS,IraqsIntheWorldClassscenarioIraqiGDPpercapitacouldreach4,000USDby2013,Non-oilSectors,+,*)Populationin2003=24million,2008=29million,2013=33millionSource:McKinsey,GDPdevelopment2003-2013(inbnUSD),GDPpercapita*2003-2013(in000USD),ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSION,THREEPOTENTIALDEVELOPMENTSCENARIOS,InthedistinctivescenarioIraqiGDPpercapitacouldreach4,000USDby2013,COMPARISONOFIRAQWITHSAUDIARABIA,Source:GlobalInsightWMM2.Q.2003,GDPpercapitacomparison000USD,GDPcomparisonbnUSD,65,145,20,155,30,225,5,16,1,10,1,10,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,1980,1990,2003,1980,1990,2003,ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSION,AGENDA,OverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestments,*Assumingacapitalproductivityof0.2Source:McKinseyanalysis,GDP2003(bnUSD),30,ESTIMATEOFREQUIREDINVESTMENTSINTOIRAQOVERTHENEXTDECADE,ToachievetheWorldClassscenarioIraqseconomyrequiresUSD250-350billionininvestments,mostofwhichwillhavetobeFDI,overthenextdecade,ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSION,Assuminganaveragecapitalproductivityof0.2,Source:GlobalInsight;McKinseyanalysis,Oilandgas,Construction,Community,socialandpersonalservices,Agriculture,Retail/Wholesale,Communicationincl.telecom,Manufacturing,Transportation,Financialservicesincl.Realestate,Other(incl.Utilities),Sectorsize-2008,ShareofGDPin%in2008,60,10,7,5,5,4,3,3,2,1,34-42,6,4,3,3,2-3,2,1-2,1,1,100,ESTIMATEDPOTENTIALSECTORSIZE,By2008,IraqseconomyislikelytocontinuetobedominatedbytheOil/gassector,ESTIMATE,bnUSD,57-67,Total,Scenario2:GDPgrowthrateat11-13%,GDPasanindicatorofthecapabilityofaneconomytoaddvalue,Source:GlobalInsight,McKinseyanalysis,By2010IraqcangenerateannualoilrevenuesofaboutUSD44billion(assuming80%exportandapriceofUSD20perbarrel),Source:PFCEconomy,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,Raisingproductionto6mb/drequiresUSD30-35billionofinvestments,RehabilitatingofexistinginfrastructurewillrequireUSD3-6billionofinvestments,ESTIMATE,ESTIMATEDIRAQIOILPRODUCTION,IncreasingIraqsoilcapacitywillrequiresignificantinvestments,mbarrelperday,Source:McKinsey,EstimatesforrebuildingIraqvaryfromabout$20billionayearforseveralyearstoasmuchas$600billionoveradecadebecausethescaleofreconstructionisdifficulttoestimate,ESTIMATE,RebuildingIraqsbasichardinfrastructurewillbechallengingandwillrequiresubstantialinvestmentsoverthenextdecade,ESTIMATEDINVESTMENTRQUIREMENTS,Source:McKinsey,UnitedStatesDepartmentofDefense,USAIDWebsite,USAIDCONTRACTS/GRANTS,AwardedcontractsandgrantsPersonnelSupport(AwardedtoInternationalResourcesGroup,7/2/03)SeaportAdministration(AwardedtoStevedoringServicesofAmerica,24/3/03)PrimaryandSecondaryEducation(AwardedtoCreativeAssociates,11/4/03)LocalGovernance(AwardedtoResearchTriangleInstitute,11/4/03)CapitalConstruction(AwardedtoBechtel,17/4/03)TheaterLogisticalSupport(Inter-agencyagreementawardedtotheAirForceContractAugmentationProgram(AFCAP)on17/2/03)AirportAdministration(awardedtoSkyLinkAirandLogisticssupporton5/5/2003)PublicHealth(AwardedtoAbtAssociates,30/4/03)BacktoSchoolCampaign(AwardedtoUNICEF,8/4/03)HealthWaterandSanitationServices(AwardedtoUNICEFon28/3/03)HealthStrengtheningSystems(AwardedtoWHO,28/3/03)CommunityActionProgram(Awardedtonumberofrelieforganizationsincl.MercyCorps,IRD,SavetheChildrenFederation,27/05/2003),NOTCOMPREHENSIVE,UptoUSD680million,UptoUSD168million,UptoUSD63million,UASAIDhasawardedannumberofcontractsandthereareaboutUSD6.7billioninfundsavailabletorebuildIraq,Availablefundsources:USD1.7billionoffrozenIraqigovernmentassetsintheUS.USD700millionofIraqigovernmentcashseizedinIraq.USD1.9billioninpledgesfromtheinternationalcommunityandotherassistanceoffers.USD2.5billionappropriatedfromUSCongressforreconstruction.,Source:McKinsey,CreateanenablingandopeneconomicenvironmentAddresskeyeconomicgovernanceissuessuchastaxation,landownership,companylaws,industryde-/regulationandinvestorprotection,Theimplementedpoliticalandeconomicgovernancemodelwillbeessentialforbuildinginvestorconfidence,Implementingtherightlong-termeconomicgovernancemodelwillbeessentialforattractingtheforeigninvestmentnecessarytorebuildIraq,FORDISCUSSION,KEYREQUIREMENTSTOATTRACTFOREIGNINVESTMENTS,BuildaconstitutionalstateImplementthekeybuildingblocksforanconstitutionalstatewithanindependentjudicialsystem,EstablishanaccountablecivilserviceBuildthefoundationforanefficient,effectiveandaccountableadministration,Source:Pressclippings,“IraqwillbeanexampleofanewArabCharterthatchampionsinternalreform,greaterpoliticalparticipation,economicopennessandfreetrade”GeorgeBush,SELECTEDCOUTES,“IraqisatestcaseoftheUSabilitytoengenderdemocracyand