财务报表分析新思维(PPT 64页).ppt

2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,1,厦门国家会计学院,财务报表分析新思维财务报表分析的逻辑切入点,徐国栋TelQ：1103810430email：terrence办公室：经A541,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,2,相关参考书隆重推荐：财务报表分析：理论框架方法与案例主编：黄世忠（国家会计学院副院长），中国财经出版社2007年版，系列丛书：国家会计学院会计硕士专业学位（MPAcc）系列教材,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,3,三大逻辑切入点,盈利质量,资产质量,现金流量,收入质量,利润质量,毛利率高低,成长性,退出壁垒,潜在损失,经营现金流量,自由现金流量,波动性,资产结构,现金含量,”造血“功能,还本付息,研发营销,报表分析三大逻辑切入点,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,4,阐述报表分析的逻辑切入点案例：M公司与GFC公司哪个更有竞争优势？本讲旨在阐明报表分析的常见误区，把握报表分析的逻辑体系,研讨要点与目的,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,5,股票市场表现,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,6,股票市值(Capitalization),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,7,四大核心问题问题1做大=做强？问题2M公司与GFC公司孰优孰劣？孰强孰弱？问题3M公司与GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？问题4如何评价M公司与GFC公司的业绩？,考倒全世界顶级MBA的难题,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,8,经营规模-雇员人数,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,9,经营规模-资产总额,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,10,经营规模销售收入,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,11,经营规模CFFOA(现金流量),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,12,股票市值(Capitalization),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,13,财务实力净资产,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,14,经营绩效净利润,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,15,财务数据：GFCv.sM(2002),新经济与旧经济的反差行业层面的解释市盈率分析,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,16,盈利质量,现金流量,资产质量,财务报表分析的三大逻辑切入点,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,17,三大逻辑切入点,盈利质量,资产质量,现金流量,收入质量,利润质量,毛利率高低,成长性,退出壁垒,潜在损失,经营现金流量,自由现金流量,波动性,资产结构,现金含量,”造血“功能,还本付息,研发营销,报表分析三大逻辑切入点,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,18,盈利质量,收入质量,利润质量,毛利率,成长性,波动性,研发营销,盈利质量分析方法,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,19,收入质量(QualityofRevenue),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,20,收入质量(QualityofRevenue),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,21,利润质量(QualityofProfit),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,22,利润质量(QualityofProfit),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,23,MicrosoftSettlement反垄断诉讼费用(Antitrustsuitfiledin1998,settledin2001),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,24,经营业绩:2005vs.2004,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,25,2006:艰难的转折?,ChryslerGroup2006OperatingLoss$152007totalLoss$29.2May15,2007soldfor$74May10,1998boughtfor$360,2007:-$3872008Q3:-$213,SEasoftheendof2008Q3GM:-599;Ford:-20,2008Q3-$87,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,26,毛利率(GrossProfitMargin),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,27,M公司的成本费用结构,3EStrategyEmbrace,Extend,Extinguish,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,28,R3.34%;3.47%,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,29,成本结构与风险传导,资产质量,资产结构,现金含量,退出壁垒,经营风险,财务弹性,潜在损失,资产质量分析方法,技术风险,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,30,资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2001),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,31,资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2002),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,32,资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2003),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,33,资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2004),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,34,资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2005),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,35,如何解释市净率?,13.1,5.5,5.8,3.4,0.67,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,36,品牌价值,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,37,被忽略的“软资产”,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,38,何为风险?Riskisuncertainty风险的类别经济风险(EconomicRisk)环境风险(经济条件、政治及社会环境）市场风险（市场结构、企业竞争优势）经营风险（OperationalRisk)固定成本与变动成本比例财务风险（FinancialRisk)资本结构与金融市场利率,营业风险BusinessRisk,利润易变性ProfitVolatility,传导,传导,成本结构与风险传导,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,39,+5%+14%+18%-5%-14%-18%经济风险经营风险营业风险财务风险,经济状况政治社会环境,销售收入,息税前利润,税后利润,市场结构竞争优势,风险的传导与放大,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,40,XYZ公司风险评估测算表,风险传导放大效应,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,41,现金流量,经营现金流量,自由现金流量,“造血”功能,还本付息,现金流量分析方法,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,42,现金流量表的“妙用”,经营活动产生的现金流量,投资活动产生的现金流量,筹资活动产生的现金流量,造血功能,抽血功能,输血功能,现金流量表经常被忽略的报表,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,43,广义的自由现金流量FCF=经营性现金流量-资本支出用于评估还本付息和股利支付的能力狭义的自由现金流量FCF=经营性现金流量-资本支出-现金股利用于评估企业的财务弹性利用市场机遇和应对市场逆境的能力用于评估企业依靠内部现金资源谋求发展的能力,CFFOAvs.FreeCashFlow,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,44,现金流量趋势:G(12vs.73),2007CF-O:77;CF-CE:75Int.:29;P:1844,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,45,2005.12.13,Cut30,000jobsClose9facilitiesBy2008(2005.11.21)Share$19.85(2005.12.20)Lowestin23years,GM-不断恶化的信用等级,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,46,GMvs.Toyota,2008.11.7GM:27TM:1052,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,47,谁是老大?,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,48,1.1millionofemployeescovered,pensionandhealthcareliabilitytotaled$170b,currentShortage$54b,GM-不堪重负的医疗与退休债务,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,49,GAP:$2,300,GAP:$1,972,医疗及退休费用对制造成本的影响,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,50,汽车巨头盈利能力差异,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,51,S&PloweredFordsratingtoB+onJune27,2006,现金流量趋势:F(69vs.63),2007CF-O:171CF-CE:60,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,52,2006年F公司的生死之年?,WayForwardTurnaroundProgram1.CutNorthAmericaWhite-collarcostsby10%2.Eliminateupto30,000Hourlyjobsandclose14Plantsby20122006.9.15Buyoutall75,000NorthAmericanfactoryworkers$140,000perworkerTotal$10.5billion,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,53,现金流量趋势:C,2007CF-O:191CF-CE:164,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,54,现金流量趋势:M,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,55,市场成长性,市场占有率,高,低,高,BytheBostonConsultingGroupin1968,波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,56,Stars(现金明星)PLC处于高速成长阶段，市场占有率很高且仍呈上升趋势销售收入和现金流量有很高的增长潜力获利丰厚，但现金流量不很充裕,波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,57,CashCows(现金奶牛)市场占有率很高PLC处于成熟阶段产品维持成本较低现金性收入很高经营性现金流量十分充裕,波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,58,Dogs(现金瘦狗)PLC处于衰退阶段市场占有率很低或不断下降经营性现金流量入不敷出产品需要大量维持支出,Isyourproductstartingtoembarrassyourcompany?,波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,59,ProblemChild(问题小孩)PLC处于高速成长阶段，但市场占有率很低产品维持需要大量资金支出经营性现金流量可能出现负数未来潜力充满不确定性,Problemchildrenworthspendinggoodmoneyon?,波士顿矩阵(TheBostonMatrix),2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,60,股票市场表现,2020/6/6,XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute,61,Microsoft的崛