宏观经济计量与核算(ppt 45页).ppt

二、宏观经济计量与核算MEASURINGANATIONSINCOME,TheCircularFlow,RichardStone(理查德斯通),1984年获诺贝尔经济学奖。二战期间，完成战争财源分析及1938和1940国民收入和支出估计白皮书。时任英国财政部顾问的凯恩斯感动地说：“我们在一个通过统计的快乐时代中”。1945年任剑桥大学新成立的应用经济学系的第一任主任。1950年，受联合国统计委员会委托，出版国民帐户体系（SNA），1968年修订后正式出版。1975年出版社会和人口统计系统（SSDS,Towardsasystemofsocialanddemographicstatistics）。,WassilyLeontief(沃西里里昂惕夫),1973年获诺贝尔经济学奖。1906年出生在圣彼得堡，1929年任中国铁道部顾问，1931年进入美国国民经济研究局（NBER），1946年哈佛大学经济学教授。1941年出版美国经济结构：1919-1929，第一次用投入产出法进行经济结构分析。1966年出版投入产出经济学。,国民收入帐户投入产出表资金循环表国际收支表国民资产负债表,国民帐户体系ASYSTEMOFNATIONALACCOUNTS,Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)isameasureoftheincomeandexpendituresofaneconomy.Itisthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountryinagiventimeperiod.,GrossDomesticProduct,ImportantFeaturesofGDP,Outputisvaluedatmarketprices.Itrecordsonlythevalueoffinalgoods,notintermediategoods(thevalueiscountedonlyonce).Itincludesbothtangiblegoods(food,clothing,cars)andintangibleservices(haircuts,housecleaning,doctorvisits).,ImportantFeaturesofGDP,Itincludesgoodsandservicescurrentlyproduced,nottransactionsinvolvinggoodsproducedinthepast.Itmeasuresthevalueofproductionwithinthegeographicconfinesofacountry.,ImportantFeaturesofGDP,Itmeasuresthevalueofproductionthattakesplacewithinaspecificintervaloftime,usuallyayearoraquarter(threemonths).,WhatIsCountedinGDP?,GDPincludesallitemsproducedintheeconomyandsoldlegallyinmarkets.,WhatIsNotCountedinGDP?,GDPexcludesmostitemsthatareproducedandconsumedathomeandthatneverenterthemarketplace.Itexcludesitemsproducedandsoldillicitly,suchasillegaldrugs.,GrossNationalProduct,Grossnationalproduct(GNP)isthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinagivenperiodoftimebyanationspermanentresidents,regardlessofwheretheyare.,ThreeOtherMeasuresofIncome,NetNationalProduct(NNP)PersonalIncomeDisposablePersonalIncome,NetNationalProduct(NNP),Thetotalincomeoftheresidentsofanationaftersubtractinglossesfromdepreciation.,PersonalIncome,Theincomethathouseholdsandnoncorporatebusinessesreceive.,DisposablePersonalIncome,Theincomethathouseholdandnoncorporatebusinesseshaveleftaftersatisfyingtheirobligationstothegovernment.,GrossNationalProduct,FromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStates,GNPNationalandPerCapitaIncome,FromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStates,NationalIncome,FromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStates,TheFourComponentsofGDP,GDP(Y)isthesumofthefollowing:Consumption(C)Investment(I)GovernmentPurchases(G)NetExports(NX)Y=C+I+G+NX,TheFourComponentsofGDP,Consumption(C):Thespendingbyhouseholdsongoodsandservices,withtheexceptionofpurchasesofnewhousing.Investment(I):Thespendingoncapitalequipment,inventories,andstructures,includingnewhousing.,TheFourComponentsofGDP,GovernmentPurchases(G):Thespendingongoodsandservicesbylocal,state,andfederalgovernments.Doesnotincludetransferpaymentsbecausetheyarenotmadeinexchangeforcurrentlyproducedgoodsorservices.NetExports(NX):Exportsminusimports.,BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000,BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000,Consumption69%,Investment15%,BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000,Consumption68%,Consumption68%,GovernmentPurchases19%,BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000,Investment15%,NetExports-1%,BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000,Consumption68%,Investment15%,GovernmentPurchases19%,RealversusNominalGDP,NominalGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatcurrentprices.RealGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatconstantprices.,RealversusNominalGDP,AnaccurateviewoftheeconomyrequiresadjustingnominaltorealGDPbyusingtheGDPdeflator.,价格指数(PriceIndex),拉斯佩雷斯(Laspeyres)指数：帕斯卡(Pascke)指数：,GDPDeflator,TheGDPdeflatormeasuresthecurrentlevelofpricesrelativetothelevelofpricesinthebaseyear.IttellsustheriseinnominalGDPthatisattributabletoariseinpricesratherthanariseinthequantitiesproduced.,GDPDeflator,TheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:,GDPDeflator,TheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:,ConvertingNominalGDPtoRealGDP,NominalGDPisconvertedtorealGDPasfollows:,ConvertingNominalGDPtoRealGDP,NominalGDPisconvertedtorealGDPasfollows:,ConsumerPriceIndex,Theconsumerpriceindex(CPI)isameasureoftheoverallcostofthegoodsandservicesboughtbyatypicalconsumer.Itisusedtomonitorchangesinthecostoflivingovertime.Itreportsthemovementofpricesusinganindexnumber.,ConsumerPriceIndex,WhentheCPIrises,thetypicalfamilyhastospendmoredollarstomaintainthesamestandardofliving.,TheConsumerPriceIndexversustheGDPDeflator,EconomistsandpolicymakersuseboththeGDPdeflatorandtheconsumerpriceindextogaugehowquicklypricesarerising.Thereareimportantdifferencesbetweenthetwo.,TheConsumerPriceIndexversustheGDPDeflator,TheCPI.includesonlyconsumergoods.includesimports.ismeasuredusingafixedbasketofgoodsandservices.,TheConsumerPriceIndexversustheGDPDeflator,TheGDPPriceDeflator.includesallgoodsandservicesproduceddomestically.excludesimports.ismeasuredusingcurrentlyproducedgoodsandservices.,GDPandEconomicWell-Being,GDPisthebestsinglemeasureoftheeconomicwell-beingofasociety.GDPperpersontellsustheincomeandexpenditureoftheaveragepersonintheeconomy.,GDPandEconomicWell-Being,HigherGDPperpersonindicatesahigherstandardofliving.GDPisnotaperfectmeasureofthehappinessorqualityoflife,however.,GDPandEconomicWell-Being,Somethingsthatcontributetowell-beingarenotincludedinGDP.Thevalueofleisure.Thevalueofacleanenvironment.Thevalueofalmostallactivitythattakesplaceoutsideofmarkets,suchasthevalueofthetimeparentsspendwiththeirchi