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宏观经济学课后答案【美】奥利维尔布兰查德著CHAPTER11ATRUEBTRUECFALSEDTRUEEFALSEFFALSE2A196098199799US3138EU3125JAPAN5810WHILETHEUSGROWTHRATEHIGHERTHANITSLONGRUNAVERAGEOVERTHEPERIODTHEGROWTHRATEHASSLOWEDRELATIVETOLONGRUNAVERAGESINBOTHTHEEUANDJAPANOVERTHELASTFEWYEARSBSOMETIMESTHEECONOMYISGROWINGQUICKLYOTHERTIMESITISGROWINGSLOWLYOREVENCONTRACTINGTHELASTFEWYEARSOFRAPIDGROWTHINTHEUSDONOTIMPLYTHATTHELONGRUNAVERAGERATEOFGROWTHHASINCREASEDBACKTOITSPRE1974LEVEL3ATHEDATAINTHEWEBPAGEAREREALGROSSDOMESTICPRODUCTREALFINALSALESOFDOMESTICPRODUCTANDREALGROSSNATIONALPRODUCTQUARTERLY195996PERCENTCHANGEFROMPRECEDINGQUARTERGROSSFINALSALESGROSSDOMESTICOFDOMESTICNATIONALPRODUCTPRODUCTPRODUCT1959I869286II11273111III035302IV1713191996I182618II605257III100206IV434549SUGGESTINGTHATRECESSIONSTYPICALLYLASTTWOTHREEQUARTERSANDTHATTHEMOSTSEVERERECESSIONSINTHATPERIODWERETHERECESSIONSOF197475AND198182BPERCENTAGECHANGESINOUTPUTGROWTHINFLATION19684744I7547II7141III3038IV185519693047I6238II1050III2358IV205119700153I0760II0657III3734IV395419713352I11364II2355III2644IV1133IFHISTORYSIMPLYREPEATSITSELFTHEUNITEDSTATESMIGHTHAVEASHORTRECESSIONLASTINGPERHAPSONEYEARACCOMPANIEDBYANACCELERATIONINTHERATEOFINFLATIONBYABOUTONEPERCENTAGEPOINT4ABANKINGSERVICESBUSINESSSERVICESBNOTONLYHASTHERELATIVEDEMANDFORSKILLEDWORKERSINCREASEDBUTTHEINDUSTRIESWHERETHISEFFECTISTHESTRONGESTAREMAKINGUPAGREATERFRACTIONOFTHEECONOMY51LOWUNEMPLOYMENTMIGHTLEADTOANINCREASEININFLATION2ALTHOUGHMEASUREMENTERRORCERTAINLYCONTRIBUTESTOTHEMEASUREDSLOWDOWNINGROWTHTHEREAREOTHERISSUESTOCONSIDERASWELLINCLUDINGTHEPRODUCTIVITYOFNEWRESEARCHANDACCUMULATIONOFNEWCAPITAL3ALTHOUGHLABORMARKETRIGIDITIESMAYBEIMPORTANTITISALSOIMPORTANTTOCONSIDERTHATTHESERIGIDITIESMAYNOTBEEXCESSIVEANDTHATHIGHUNEMPLOYMENTMAYARISEFROMFLAWEDMACROECONOMICPOLICIES4ALTHOUGHTHEREWERESERIOUSPROBLEMSWITHREGARDTOTHEMANAGEMENTOFASIANFINANCIALSYSTEMSITISIMPORTANTTOCONSIDERTHEPOSSIBILITYTHATTHEFLIGHTOFFOREIGNCAPITALFROMTHESECOUNTRIESWORSENEDTHESITUATIONBYCAUSINGASEVERESTOCKMARKETCRASHANDEXCHANGERATEDEPRECIATION5ALTHOUGHTHEEUROWILLREMOVEOBSTACLESTOFREETRADEBETWEENEUROPEANCOUNTRIESEACHCOUNTRYWILLBEFORCEDTOGIVEUPITSOWNMONETARYPOLICY6AFROMCHAPTER1USOUTPUT19978BCHINAOUTPUT199684BNOTETHATCHINASOUTPUTIN1997IS84109BEQUATINGOUTPUTFORSOMETIMETINTHEFUTURE8103T84109109T884109109103T87371058TTLN8737LN105838YRSBFROMCHAPTER1USOUTPUTWORKERIN199729800CHINAOUTPUTPERWORKERIN1996700298103T7109109TT65YEARSCHAPTER21AFALSEBUNCERTAINREALORNOMINALGDPCTRUEDTRUEEFALSETHELEVELOFTHECPIMEANSNOTHINGITSRATEOFCHANGETELLSUSABOUTINFLATIONFUNCERTAINWHICHINDEXISBETTERDEPENDSONWHATWEARETRYINGTOMEASUREINFLATIONFACEDBYCONSUMERSORBYTHEECONOMYASAWHOLE2A100PERSONALCONSUMPTIONEXPENDITURESBNOCHANGEINTERMEDIATEGOODC200MILLIONGROSSPRIVATEDOMESTICFIXEDINVESTMENTD200MILLIONNETEXPORTSENOCHANGETHEJETWASALREADYCOUNTEDWHENITWASPRODUCEDIEPRESUMABLYWHENDELTAORSOMEOTHERAIRLINEBOUGHTITNEWASANINVESTMENT3AMEASUREDGDPINCREASESBY101222BTRUEGDPSHOULDINCREASEBYMUCHLESSTHAN22BECAUSEBYWORKINGFORANEXTRAHOURYOUARENOLONGERPRODUCINGTHEWORKOFCOOKINGWITHINTHEHOUSESINCECOOKINGWITHINTHEHOUSEISAFINALSERVICEITSHOULDCOUNTASPARTOFGDPUNFORTUNATELYITISHARDTOMEASURETHEVALUEOFWORKWITHINTHEHOMEWHICHISWHYMEASUREDGDPDOESNOTINCLUDEIT4A1000000THEVALUEOFTHESILVERNECKLACESB1STSTAGE3000002NDSTAGE100000300000700000GDP3000007000001000000CWAGES200000250000450000PROFITS3000002000001000000250000300000100000450000550000GDP45000055000010000005A1998GDP1020004100010001250001999GDP12300065001000140000NOMINALGDPHASINCREASEDBY60B1998REAL1998GDP250001999REAL1998GDP122000610001000131000REAL1998GDPHASINCREASEDBY24C1998REAL1999GDP103000450010001330001999REAL1999GDP40000REAL1999GDPHASINCREASEDBY212DTRUE6A1998BASEYEARDEFLATOR19981DEFLATOR19994000031000129INFLATION29B1999BASEYEARDEFLATOR19982500033000076DEFLATOR19991INFLATION10760763232CYES7A1998REALGDP102500475010001290001999REALGDP12250067501000135500B355002900029000224224CDEFLATORIN1998250002900086DEFLATORIN19994000035500113INFLATION11386863143148ATHEQUALITYOFAROUTINECHECKUPIMPROVESOVERTIMECHECKUPSNOWMAYINCLUDEEKGSFOREXAMPLEMEDICALSERVICESAREPARTICULARLYAFFECTEDBYTHISPROBLEMDUETOCONSTANTIMPROVEMENTSINMEDICALTECHNOLOGYBYOUNEEDTOKNOWHOWTHEMARKETVALUESPREGNANCYCHECKUPSWITHANDWITHOUTULTRASOUNDSINTHATYEARCTHISINFORMATIONISNOTAVAILABLESINCEALLDOCTORSADOPTEDTHENEWTECHNOLOGYSIMULTANEOUSLYSTILLYOUCANTELLTHATTHEQUALITYADJUSTEDINCREASEWILLBELOWERTHAN209AAPPROXIMATELY25B1992REALGDPGROWTH27UNEMPLOYMENTRATEJAN9273UNEMPLOYMENTRATEJAN9373SUPPORTSOKUNSLAWBECAUSETHEUNEMPLOYMENTRATEDOESNOTCHANGEWHENTHEGROWTHRATEOFREALGDPISNEAR25C2PERCENTAGEPOINTSCHANGEINTHEUNEMPLOYMENTRATE5PERCENTGDPGROWTHDTHEGROWTHRATEOFGDPMUSTINCREASEBY25PERCENTAGEPOINTSCHAPTER31ATRUEBFALSEGOVERNMENTSPENDINGWAS18IFGDPWITHOUTTRANSFERSCFALSETHEPROPENSITYTOCONSUMEMUSTBELESSTHANONEFOROURMODELTOBEWELLDEFINEDDTRUEFALSEFFALSETHEINCREASEINOUTPUTISONETIMESTHEMULTIPLIER2AY16006Y10015015004Y46060Y1000BYDYT1000100900CC160069007003ANOTHEGOODSMARKETISNOTINEQUILIBRIUMFROMPART2ADEMAND1000CIG700150150BYESTHEGOODSMARKETISINEQUILIBRIUMCNOPRIVATESAVINGYCT200PUBLICSAVINGTG50NATIONALSAVINGORINSHORTSAVINGEQUALSPRIVATEPLUSPUBLICSAVINGOR150NATIONALSAVINGEQUALSINVESTMENT4AROUGHLYCONSISTENTCY700100070IYGY150100015BAPPROXIMATELY2CYNEEDSTOFALLBY2ORFROM1000TO980THEPARAMETERC0NEEDSTOFALLBY20MULTIPLIERORBY2048SOC0NEEDSTOFALLFROM160TO152DTHECHANGEINC08ISLESSTHANTHECHANGEINGDP20DUETOTHEMULTIPLIER5AYINCREASESBY11C1BYDECREASESBYC11C1CTHEANSWERSDIFFERBECAUSESPENDINGAFFECTSDEMANDDIRECTLYBUTTAXESAFFECTDEMANDTHROUGHCONSUMPTIONANDTHEPROPENSITYTOCONSUMEISLESSTHANONEDTHECHANGEINYEQUALS11C1C11C11BALANCEDBUDGETCHANGESINGANDTARENOTMACROECONOMICALLYNEUTRALETHEPROPENSITYTOCONSUMEHASNOEFFECTBECAUSETHEBALANCEDBUDGETTAXINCREASEABORTSTHEMULTIPLIERPROCESSYANDTBOTHINCREASEBYONUNITSODISPOSABLEINCOMEANDHENCECONSUMPTIONDONOTCHANGE6ATHETAXRATEILESSTHANONEBYC0C1YDIGIMPLIESY11C1C1T1C0C1T0IGCTHEMULTIPLIER11C1C1T111C1SOTHEECONOMYRESPONDSLESSTOCHANGESINAUTONOMOUSSPENDINGWHENT1ISPOSITIVEDBECAUSEOFTHEAUTOMATICEFFECTOFTAXESONTHEECONOMYTHEECONOMYRESPONDSLESSTOCHANGESINAUTONOMOUSSPENDINGTHANINTHECASEWHERETAXESAREINDEPENDENTOFINCOMESOOUTPUTTENDSTOVARYLESSANDFISCALPOLICYISCALLEDANAUTOMATICSTABILIZER7AY11C1C1T1C0C1T0IGBTC1T0T111C1C1T1C0C1T0IGCBOTHYANDTDECREASEDIFGISCUTYDECREASESEVENMORECHAPTER41ATRUEBFALSCTRUEDTRUEEFALSEFFALSEGTRUE2AI005MONEYDEMAND18000BONDDEMAND32000I1MONEYDEMAND15000BONDDEMAND35000BMONEYDEMANDDECREASESWHENTHEINTERESTRATEINCREASESBONDDEMANDINCREASESTHISISCONSISTENTWITHTHETEXTCTHEDEMANDFORMONEYFALLSBY50DTHEDEMANDFORMONEYFALLSBY50EA1INCREASEDECREASEININCOMELEADSTOA1INCREASEDECREASEINMONEYDEMANDTHISEFFECTISINDEPENDENTOFTHEINTERESTRATE3AI100PB1I33185WHENPB758595BNEGATIVECPB100108934A20MD10025II5BM1002515M105ABD500006000035IANINCREASEINTHEINTERESTRATEOF10INCREASESBONDDEMAND6000BANINCREASEINWEALTHINCREASESBONDDEMANDBUTHASNOEFFECTONMONEYDEMANDCANINCREASEININCOMEINCREASESMONEYDEMANDBUTDECREASESBONDDEMANDDWHENPEOPLEEARNMOREINCOMETHISDOESNOTCHANGETHEIRWEALTHRIGHTAWAYTHUSTHEYINCREASETHEIRDEMANDFORMONEYANDDECREASETHEIRDEMANDFORBONDS6ADEMANDFORHIGHPOWEREDMONEY01Y84IB100B015000B84II15CM11100B1000BMMDATTHEINTERESTDERIVEDINPARTB6DIFHINCREASESTO300FALLSTO5EM11300B3000B7A16ISWITHDRAWNONEACHTRIPTOTHEBANKMONEYHOLDINGSDAYONE16DAYTWO12DAYTHREE8DAYFOUR4BAVERAGEMONEYHOLDINGSARE10C8DOLLARWITHDRAWALSMONEYHOLDINGSOF8484DAVERAGEMONEYHOLDINGSARE6E16DOLLARWITHDRAWALSMONEYHOLDINGSOF00016FAVERAGEMONEYHOLDINGSARE4GBASEDONTHESEANSWERSATMSANDCREDITCARDSHAVEREDUCEDMONEYDEMAND8AVELOCITY1MY1LIBVELOCITYROUGHLYDOUBLEDBETWEENTHEMID1960SANDTHEMID1990SCATMSANDCREDITCARDSREDUCEDLISOVELOCITYINCREASEDCHAPTER51COMCFALDFALSETHEBALANCEDBUDGETMULTIPLIERISPOSITIVEITEQUALSONESOTHEISCURVESHIFTSRIGHTEFALSEFUNCERTAINANINCREASEINGLEADSTOANINCREASEINYWHICHTENDSTOINCREASEINVESTMENTBUTANINCREASEINTHEINTERESTRATEWHICHTENDSTOREDUCEINVESTMENTGTRUE2FIRMSDECIDINGHOWTOUSETHEIROWNFUNDSWILLCOMPARETHERETURNONBONDSTOTHERETURNONINVESTMENTWHENTHEINTERESTRATEONBONDSINCREASESTHEYBECOMEMOREATTRACTIVEANDFIRMSAREMORELIKELYTOUSETHEIRFUNDSTOPURCHASEBONDSRATHERTHANTOFINANCEINVESTMENTPROJECTSAY11C1C0C1TIGTHEMULTIPLIERIS11C1BY11C1B1C0C1TB0B2IGTHEMULTIPLIERIS11C1B1SINCETHEMULTIPLIERISLARGERTHANTHEMULTIPLIERINPARTATHEEFFECTOFACHANGEINAUTONOMOUSSPENDINGISBIGGERTHANINPARTACSUBSTITUTINGFORTHEINTERESTRATEINTHEANSWERTOPARTBY11C1B1B2D1D2C0C1TB0B2MPD2GTHEMULTIPLIERIS11C1B1B2D1D2DTHEMULTIPLIERISGREATERLESSTHANTHEMULTIPLIERINPARTAIFB1B2D1D2ISGREATERLESSTHANZEROTHEMULTIPLIERISBIGIFB1ISBIGB2ISSMALLD1ISSMALLANDORD2ISBIGIEIFINVESTMENTISVERYSENSITIVETOYINVESTMENTISNOTVERYSENSITIVETOIMONEYDEMANDISNOTVERYSENSITIVETOYMONEYDEMANDISVERYSENSITIVETOI4ATHEISCURVESHIFTSLEFTOUTPUTANDTHEINTERESTRATEFALLTHEEFFECTONINVESTMENTISAMBIGUOUSBECAUSETHEOUTPUTANDINTERESTRATEEFFECTSWORKINOPPOSITEDIRECTIONSTHEFALLINOUTPUTTENDSTOREDUCEINVESTMENTBUTTHEFALLINTHEINTERESTRATETENDSTOINCREASEITBFROM3CY11C1B1C0C1TB0B2IGCFROMTHELMRELATIONIYD1D2MPD2TOOBTAINTHEEQUILIBRIUMINTERESTRATESUBSTITUTEFORYFROMPARTBDIB0B1YB2IB0B1YB2YD1D2B2MPD2TOOBTAINEQUILIBRIUMINVESTMENTSUBSTITUTEFORYFROMPARTBEHOLDINGMPCONSTANTIINCREASESWITHEQUILIBRIUMOUTPUTWHENB1B2D1D2SINCEADECREASEINGREDUCESOUTPUTTHECONDITIONUNDERWHICHADECREASEINGINCREASESINVESTMENTISB1B2D1D2FTHEINTERPRETATIONOFTHECONDITIONINPARTEISTHATTHEEFFECTONIFROMYHASTOBELESSTHANTHEEFFECTFROMIAFTERCONTROLLINGFORTHEENDOGENOUSRESPONSEOFIANDYDETERMINEDBYTHESLOPEOFTHELMCURVED1D25AYCIG20025Y20015025Y1000I250Y11002000IBMP16002Y8000IIY400015CSUBSTITUTINGBINTOAY1000DSUBSTITUTINGCINTOBI1205EC400I350G250CIG1000FY1040I3C410I380AMONETARYEXPANSIONREDUCESTHEINTERESTRATEANDINCREASESOUTPUTTHEINCREASEINOUTPUTINCREASESCONSUMPTIONTHEINCREASEINOUTPUTANDTHEFALLINTHEINTERESTRATEINCREASEINVESTMENTGY1200I10C450I350AFISCALEXPANSIONINCREASESOUTPUTANDTHEINTERESTRATETHEINCREASEINOUTPUTINCREASESCONSUMPTIONHTHECONDITIONFROMPROBLEM3ISSATISFIEDWITHEQUALITY25100028000SOCONTRACTIONARYFISCALPOLICYWILLHAVENOEFFECTONINVESTMENTWHENG100I0Y800I350ANDC3506ATHELMCURVEISFLATBJAPANWASEXPERIENCINGALIQUIDITYTRAPCFISCALPOLICYISMOREEFFECTIVE7AINCREASEGORREDUCETANDINCREASEMBREDUCEGORINCREASETANDINCREASEMTHEINTERESTRATEFALLSINVESTMENTINCREASESSINCETHEINTERESTRATEFALLSWHILEOUTPUTREMAINSCONSTANTCHAPTER61AFALSBFALSCOMETRUFFALSGUNCERTAIHTRUEIFALSE2AMONTHLYHIRESMONTHLYSEPARATIONSMONTHLYEMPLOYMENT693864B166525C246537DURATIONIS137OR27MONTHSD495739ENEWWORKERS35497RETIREES24943AANDBANSWERSWILLDEPENDONWHENTHEPAGEISACCESSEDCTHEDECLINEINUNEMPLOYMENTDOESNOTEQUALTHEINCREASEINEMPLOYMENTBECAUSETHELABORFORCEISNOTCONSTANTITHASINCREASEDOVERTHEPERIOD4A66666666296668B6668CFOR19988756210145AANSWERSWILLVARYBANDCMOSTLIKELYTHEJOBYOUWILLHAVETENYEARSLATERWILLPAYALOTMORETHANYOURRESERVATIONWAGEATTHETIMERELATIVETOYOURTYPICALFIRSTJOBDTHELATERJOBISMORELIKELYTOREQUIRETRAININGANDWILLPROBABLYBEAMUCHHARDERJOBTOMONITORSOASEFFICIENCYWAGETHEORYSUGGESTSYOUREMPLOYERWILLBEWILLINGTOPAYALOTMORETHANYOURRESERVATIONWAGEFORTHELATERJOBTOENSURELOWTURNOVERANDLOWSHIRKING6ATHECOMPUTERNETWORKADMINISTRATORHASMOREBARGAININGPOWERSHEISMUCHHARDERTOREPLACE6BTHERATEOFUNEMPLOYMENTISAKEYSTATISTICFOREXAMPLEWHENTHEREAREMANYUNEMPLOYEDWORKERSITBECOMESEASIERFORFIRMSTOFINDREPLACEMENTSTHISREDUCESTHEBARGAININGPOWEROFWORKERS7AWP11110595BPRICESETTINGU1WP5CWP11191U1919THEINCREASEINTHEMARKUPLOWERSTHEREALWAGEFROMTHEWAGESETTINGEQUATIONTHEUNEMPLOYMENTRATEMUSTRISEFORTHEREALWAGETOFALLSOTHENATURALRATEINCREASESCHAPTER71ATRUCOMDFALETRUFFALGFAL2AISRIGHTADRIGHTASUPLMUPYSAMEIUPPUPBISLEFTADLEFTASDOWNLMDOWNYSAMEIDOWNPDOWN3AWSPSASADLMISYIPSHORTRUNUPSAMEUPSAMEUPSAMEDOWNUPUPMEDIUMRUNUPSAMEUPSAMEUPSAMEDOWNUPUPBWSPSASADLMISYIPSHORTRUNSAMEUPDOWNSAMEDOWNSAMEUPDOWNDOWNMEDIUMRUNSAMEUPDOWNSAMEDOWNSAMEUPDOWNDOWN4AAFTERANINCREASEINTHELEVELOFTHEMONEYSUPPLYOUTPUTANDTHEINTERESTRATEEVENTUALLYRETURNTOTHESAMELEVELHOWEVERMONETARYPOLICYISUSEFULBECAUSEITCANACCELERATETHERETURNTOTHENATURALLEVELOFOUTPUTBINTHEMEDIUMRUNINVESTMENTANDTHEINTERESTRATEBOTHCHANGEWITHFISCALPOLICYCFALSELABORMARKETPOLICIESSUCHASUNEMPLOYMENTINSURANCECANAFFECTTHENATURALLEVELOFOUTPUT5AOPENANSWERFIRMSMAYBESOPESSIMISTICABOUTSALESTHATTHEYDONOTWANTTOBORROWATANYINTERESTRATEBTHEISCURVEISVERTICALTHEINTERESTRATEDOESNOTAFFECTEQUILIBRIUMOUTPUTCNOCHANGEDTHEADCURVEISVERTICALTHEPRICELEVELDOESNOTAFFECTEQUILIBRIUMOUTPUTETHEINCREASEINZREDUCESTHENATURALLEVELOFOUTPUTANDSHIFTSTHEASCURVEUPSINCETHEADCURVEISVERTICALOUTPUTDOESNOTCHANGEBUTPRICESINCREASENOTETHATOUTPUTISABOVEITSNATURALLEVELFTHEASCURVESHIFTSUPFOREVERANDPRICESKEEPINCREASINGFOREVEROUTPUTDOESNOTCHANGEANDREMAINSABOVEITSNATURALLEVELFOREVER6ATHENATURALLEVELOFOUTPUTISYNASSUMINGTHATOUTPUTSTARTSATISNATURALLEVELP0M01CYNBASSUMINGTHATPEP0Y2CM0CP2CM0CP0CDYCDYNRECALLINGTHATYNCM0P0YYNC1CDM0CINVESTMENTGOESUPBECAUSEOUTPUTISHIGHERANDTHEINTERESTRATEISLOWERDINTHEMEDIUMRUNYYNEINTHEMEDIUMRUNINVESTMENTRETURNSTOITSPREVIOUSLEVELBECAUSEOUTPUTANDTHEINTERESTRATERETURNTOTHEIRPREVIOUSLEVELSCHAPTER81COMCOMFTR2ANOINTHE1970SWEEXPERIENCEDHIGHINFLATIONANDHIGHUNEMPLOYMENTTHEEXPECTATIONSAUGMENTEDPHILLIPSCURVEISARELATIONSHIPBETWEENINFLATIONANDUNEMPLOYMENTCONDITIONALONTHENATURALRATEANDINFLATIONEXPECTATIONSGIVENINFLATIONEXPECTATIONSINCREASESINTHENATURALRATEWHICHRESULTFROMADVERSESHOCKSTOLABORMARKETINSTITUTIONSINCREASESINZORFROMINCREASESINTHEMARKUPWHICHENCOMPASSOILSHOCKSLEADTOANINCREASEINBOTHTHEUNEMPLOYMENTRATEANDTHEINFLATIONRATEINADDITIONINCREASESININFLATIONEXPECTATIONSIMPLYHIGHERINFLATIONFORANYLEVELOFUNEMPLOYMENTANDTENDTOINCREASETHEUNEMPLOYMENTRATEINTHESHORTRUNTHINKOFANINCREASEINTHEEXPECTEDPRICELEVELGIVENLASTPERIODSPRICEINTHEADASFRAMEWORKINTHE1970SBOTHTHENATURALRATEANDEXPECTEDINFLATIONINCREASEDSOBOTHUNEMPLOYMENTANDINFLATIONWERERELATIVELYHIGHBNOTHEEXPECTATIONSAUGMENTEDPHILLIPSCURVEIMPLIESTHATMAINTAININGARATEOFUNEMPLOYMENTBELOWTHENATURALRATEREQUIRESINCREASINGNOTSIMPLYHIGHINFLATIONTHISISBECAUSEINFLATIONEXPECTATIONSCONTINUETOADJUSTTOACTUALINFLATION3AUN0125BT012034EVERYYEARBEGINNINGWITHYEARTCE0AND4FOREVERINFLATIONEXPECTATIONSWILLBEFOREVERWRONGTHISISUNLIKELYTTDMIGHTINCREASEBECAUSEPEOPLESINFLATIONEXPECTATIONSADAPTTOPERSISTENTLYPOSITIVEINFLATIONTHEINCREASEINHASNOEFFECTONUNE54106448FORT5REPEATEDSUBSTITUTIONIMPLIEST5T54SO10281548FINFLATIONEXPECTATIONSWILLAGAINBEFOREVERWRONGTHISISUNLIKELY4ATT1012UTT12T2T14T26T38BT05T05T1012UTORTT144CT4T18T212T316DASINDEXATIONINCREASESLOWUNEMPLOYMENTLEADSTOALARGERINCREASEININFLATIONOVERTIME5AAHIGHERCOSTOFPRODUCTIONMEANSAHIGHERMARKUPBUN008012THUSTHENATURALRATEOFUNEMPLOYMENTINCREASESFROM5TO6ASINCREASESFROM20TO406AYESTHEAVERAGERATEOFUNEMPLOYMENTISDOWNINADDITIONTHEUNEMPLOYMENTRATEISATAHISTORICALLOWANDINFLATIONHASNOTRISENBTHENATURALRATEOFUNEMPLOYMENTHASPROBABLYDECREASED7ANEQUATIONTHATSEEMSTOFITWELLISTT16UTWHICHIMPLIESANATURALRATEOFAPPROXIMATELY68THERELATIONSHIPSIMPLYALOWERNATURALRATEINTHEMORERECENTPERIODCHAPTER91FTTFFTTT2ATHEUNEMPLOYMENTRATEWILLINCREASEBY1PERYEARWHENG05UNEMPLOYMENTWILLINCREASEUNLESSTHEGROWTHRATEEXCEEDSTHESUMOFPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHANDLABORFORCEGROWTHBWENEEDGROWTHOF425PERYEARFOREACHOFTHENEXTFOURYEARSCOKUNSLAWISLIKELYTOBECOMEUTUT104GYT53AUN5BGYT3GMTGYTT11CUGYTGMTT185311T4973T1451317T245374ATT1UT05UTUT14GMTT03BT63UT87T11UT1103CU5GY335ASEETEXTFORFULLANSWERGRADUALISMREDUCESNEEDFORLARGEPOLICYSWINGSWITHEFFECTSTHATAREDIFFICULTTOPREDICTBUTIMMEDIATEREDUCTIONMAYBEMORECREDIBLEANDENCOURAGERAPIDFAVORABLECHANGESININFLATIONEXPECTATIONSONTHEOTHERHANDTHESTAGGERINGOFWAGEDECISIONSSUGGESTSTHATIFTHEPOLICYISCREDIBLEAGRADUALDISINFLATIONISTHEOPTIONCONSISTENTWITHNOCHANGEINTHEUNEMPLOYMENTRATEBNOTCLEARPROBABLYFASTDISINFLATIONDEPENDINGONTHEFEATURESINC5CSOMEIMPORTANTFEATURESTHEDEGREEOFINDEXATIONTHENATUREOFTHEWAGESETTINGPROCESSANDTHEINITIALRATEOFINFLATION6AUNK2SACRIFICERATIO5BT10T18T26T34T42C5YEARSSACRIFICERATIO5POINTYEARSOFEXCESSUNEMPLOYMENT10PERCENTAGEPOINTREDUCTIONININFLATION5DT75T14125T215943YEARSOFHIGHERUNEMPLOYMENTFORAREDUCTIONOF10SACRIFICERATIO03ET1FTAKEMEASURESTOENHANCECREDIBILITY7AINFLATIONWILLSTARTINCREASINGITSHOULDLETUNEMPLOYMENTINCREASETOITSNEWHIGHERNATURALRATECHAPTER101TTTFFFTU2AEXAMPLEFRANCE1042485150371KGERMANY434KJAPAN765KUK225KUS317KB24CYES3A5000B2500PESOSC500D1000EMEXICANSTANDARDOFLIVINGRELATIVETOTHEUSEXCHANGERATEMETHOD110PPPMETHOD154AY63BYDOUBLESCYESDYNKN12EKN4IMPLIESYN2KN8IMPLIESYN283OUTPUTLESSTHANDOUBLESFNOGNOINPARTFWEARELOOKINGATWHATHAPPENSTOOUTPUTWHENWEINCREASECAPITALONLYNOTCAPITALANDLABORINEQUALPROPORTIONTHEREAREDECREASINGRETURNSTOCAPITALHYES5THEUNITEDSTATESWASMAKINGTHEMOSTIMPORTANTTECHNICALADVANCESHOWEVERTHEOTHERCOUNTRIESWEREABLETOMAKEUPMUCHOFTHEIRTECHNOLOGICALGAPBYIMPORTINGTHETECHNOLOGIESDEVELOPEDINTHEUNITEDSTATESANDHENCEHAVEHIGHERTECHNOLOGICALPROGRESSCONVERGENCEFORTHEFRANCEBELGIUMANDITALYNOCONVERGENCEFORTHESECONDSETOFCOUNTRIESCHAPTER111AUNCERTAINTRUEIFSAVINGINCLUDESPUBLICANDPRIVATESAVINGFALSEIFSAVINGONLYINCLUDESPRIVATESAVINGBFALSECUNCERTUTFFD2ANO1THEJAPANESERATEOFGROWTHISNOTSOHIGHANYMORE2IFTHEJAPANESESAVINGRATEHASALWAYSBEENHIGHTHENTHISCANNOTEXPLAINTHEDIFFERENCEBETWEENTHERATEOFGROWTHINJAPANANDTHEUSINTHELAST40OR50YEARS3IFTHEJAPANESESAVINGRATEHASBEENHIGHERTHANITUSEDTOBETHENTHISCANEXPLAINSOMEOFTHEHIGHJAPANESEGROWTHTHECONTRIBUTIONOFHIGHSAVINGTOGROWTHINJAPANSHOULDHOWEVERCOMETOANEND3AFTERADECADEHIGHERGROWTHRATEAFTERFIVEDECADESGROWTHRATEBACKTONORMALHIGHERLEVELOFOUTPUTPERWORKER4AHIGHERSAVINGHIGHEROUTPUTPERWORKERBSAMEOUTPUTPERWORKERHIGHEROUTPUTPERCAPITA5YYYDYNKN13EINSTEADYSTATESFKNKNWHICHGIVENTHEPRODUCTIONFUNCTIONINPARTDIMPLIESKNS32FYNS12GYN2HYN2126A1B1CKN35YN71DUSINGEQUATION113THEEVOLUTIONOFKNIS090820757AKNS22YNS4BCNS1S4CEYNINCREASESWITHSCNINCREASESUNTILS5THENDECREASESCHAPTER121TFTFTFTUF2ALOWERGROWTHINPOORERCOUNTRIESHIGHERGROWTHINRICHCOUNTRIESBINCREASEINRDANDINOUTPUTGROWTHCADECREASEINTHEFERTILITYOFAPPLIEDRESEARCHASMALLDECREASEINGROWTHDADECREASEINTHEAPPROPRIABILITYOFDRUGRESEARCHADROPINTHEDEVELOPMENTOFNEWDRUGSLOWERTECHNOLOGICALPROGRESSANDLOWERGROWTH3SEEDISCUSSIONINSECTION1224EXAMPLESWILLVARYWEAKENINGPATENTPROTECTIONWOULDACCELERATEDIFFUSIONBUTMIGHTALSODISCOURAGERD5AYEAR13000YEAR23960BREALGDP3300OUTPUTGROWTH10C20DREALGDPWORKER30INBOTHYEARSPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHISZEROEREALGDP3990OUTPUTGROWTH33F08GPROPERMEASUREMENTIMPLIESREALGDPWORKER363INYEAR2WITHIMPROPERMEASUREMENTPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHWOULDBE21PERCENTAGEPOINTSLOWERANDINFLATION21POINTSHIGHER6ABOTHLEADTOANINITIALDECREASEINGROWTHBONLYTHEFIRSTLEADSTOAPERMANENTDECREASEINGROWTH7AKANSGAGN21
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