中文+英文-prediction of slope failure due to earthquake地震诱发边坡失稳的预测

本科毕业设计英语翻译译文题目PREDICTIONOFSLOPEFAILUREDUETOEARTHQUAKE地震诱发边坡失稳的预测姓名专业勘查技术与工程班级学号指导老师指导教师职称教授2013年5月15日PREDICTIONOFSLOPEFAILUREDUETOEARTHQUAKEABSTRACTTHEEARTHQUAKETRIGGEREDLANDSLIDESANDSLOPEFAILURESARECOMMONPHENOMENADURINGSTRONGEARTHQUAKESANDHAVEDRAWNMOREATTENTIONFROMTHEWORLDBECAUSEOFSEVEREHAZARDSTHEYINDUCEDTHESEHAZARDSUSUALLYCANNOTBEPREVENTEDBYCURRENTMITIGATINGMEASURES,THUS,ITBECOMESMOREANDMOREIMPORTANTTODEVELOPAPRECISETECHNIQUEFORTHERISKASSESSMENTOFEARTHQUAKEINDUCEDFAILURESINTHEMOUNTAINOUSAREATHEAPPLICATIONOFDISCRIMINATIONANALYSISMETHODISPROVEDTOBESUCCESSFULANDEFFECTIVEINTHEPREDICTIONOFEARTHQUAKETRIGGEREDLANDSLIDESANDSLOPEFAILURESINTHEREGIONOFIMOKAWABASININJAPANDISCRIMINANTSCORECANBEUSEDTOASSESSTHERELATIVERISKOFSLOPEFAILURES,ASTHESCOREINCREASES,THEPOSSIBILITYOFSLOPEFAILURESOCCURRENCEINCREASESACCORDINGLYATTHESAMETIME,THEVARIABLESINTHEJUDGEMENTFORMULA,SUCHASSLOPEGRADIENT,SLOPECURVATUREANDSEISMICPEAKGROUNDACCELERATION,AREEASYTOOBTAINTHISADVANTAGEMAKESTHISMETHODMOREPRACTICALANDMANIPULABLETHANOTHERSATPRESENTINORDERTOAPPLYTHISMETHODMOREEFFECTIVELY,THEREARESTILLSEVERALPROBLEMSTORESOLVEKEYWORDSEARTHQUAKETRIGGEREDLANDSLIDEANDSLOPEFAILURE,DIGITALELEVATIONMODELDEM,DISCRIMINATIONANALYSISMETHOD,POTENTIALOFSLOPEFAILURES,CORRELATIONANALYSISEARTHQUAKETRIGGEREDLANDSLIDESANDSLOPEFAILURESARECOMMONPHENOMENADURINGSTRONGEARTHQUAKESINTHEWORLDANDALWAYSCAUSETREMENDOUSLOST,BOTHTOPROPERTIESANDLIVESASANEXAMPLE,ABIGEARTHQUAKEHITSICHUANPROVINCE,CAUSEDAHUGENUMBEROFLANDSLIDESANDCOLLAPSES,MADETENSOFTHOUSANDSPEOPLEHOMELESSANDMOREOVERLOSTTHEIRLIVESDURINGTHISEARTHQUAKE,SOMEHUGELANDSLIDESFORMEDNATURALDAMS,POSINGANAPPALLINGTHREATTOADJACENTREGIONNEARBEICHUANCITY,AHUGELANDSLIDEDESTROYEDLOTSOFBUILDINGSANDKILLEDMANYRESIDENTSTHESIMILARMISFORTUNETHINGSHAPPENEDONOCT23,2004INJAPANABIGEARTHQUAKECALLEDMIDNIIGATAEARTHQUAKEMS68ALSOINDUCEDLOTSOFLANDSLIDESANDCOLLAPSES,SERIOUSLYDAMAGEDTHELOCALECONOMICANDSOCIETYSITUATIONSIFWEVISITTHEWEBSITE,WEWILLFINDTHATALMOSTEVERYDAYMANYLANDSLIDESOCCURSOMEWHEREONTHEEARTHTODAY,THEHAZARDSANDDAMAGESCAUSEDBYLANDSLIDESANDCOLLAPSESHAVEDRAWNMOREANDMOREATTENTIONFROMTHEWORLD,ESPECIALLYINTHECOUNTRIESWITHPLENTYOFMOUNTAINOUSAREASIFWEHADGOTMOREINFORMATIONABOUTTHEPOTENTIALHAZARD,WHEREANDWHENITWILLHAPPEN,MANYDAMAGESCOULDHAVEBEENAVOIDEDBYSOMECORRESPONDINGCOUNTERMEASURESTHEREFORE,ITISCRITICALTOASSESSTHERISKOFLANDSLIDESANDSLOPEFAILURESFOREFFECTIVECOUNTERMEASURESINORDERTOMITIGATETHISKINDHAZARDTILLNOW,MANYMETHODSHAVEBEENPROPOSEDANDDEVELOPEDTOASSESSTHERISKOFSLOPEFAILURESANDLANDSLIDESCAUSEDBYSTRONGEARTHQUAKESINSOUTHWESTCHINA,THISKINDOFHAZARDISMORESERIOUSTHANOTHERPLACESDUETOITSCOMPLEXGEOLOGICALCONDITIONSANDSTRONGTECTONICACTIVITIES,SUCHASDAMAGECAUSEDBY1933DIEXIEARTHQUAKEMANYRESEARCHESARECONDUCTEDTOOBTAINTHEKNOWLEDGEABOUTTHELANDSLIDERELATEDTOEARTHQUAKE,INCLUDINGLANDSLIDESPATIALDISTRIBUTION,LANDSLIDEAFFECTINGFACTORS,SLOPESSTABILITYANALYSISANDSOONCURRENTLY,MOSTPROPOSEDASSESSMENTMETHODSAREDIVIDEDINTOTHEFOLLOWINGTWOTYPES1PHYSICALMODELTHISMETHODISBASEDONTHEOBJECTBALANCEPRINCIPLE,THROUGHTHECALCULATIONOFSAFETYFACTORORDISPLACEMENTTOJUDGETHESLOPESTABILIZATIONAND2EMPIRICALMODELTHISMETHODISBASEDONTHERESEARCHOFRELATIONSHIPBETWEENFAILUREOCCURRENCESSPATIALDISTRIBUTIONANDAFFECTINGFACTORSDURINGPASTEARTHQUAKESTHEFIRSTMETHODRELIESONPUREPHYSICALANALYSISITISEFFECTUALWHENWEUSEITFORSLOPERISKLEVELASSESSMENTINAREGIONWITHOUTSEISMICDISASTEREVENTSINTHEPAST,ORINTHEPLACEWHERESEISMICMOTIONWAVEFORMHASDIFFERENTCHARACTERISTICSHOWEVER,THISKINDOFMETHODNEEDSSUFFICIENTUNDERGROUNDINFORMATION,SUCHASROCKFRICTIONCONFERENCE,FRICTIONANGLEANDSOONITMEANSLOTSOFWORKNEEDSTODOBEFORESTARTINGCALCULATIONPARTICULARLY,IFTHECALCULATIONISDONEOVERAWIDEREGION,PROBLEMSWOULDARISEINTHEPROCESSOFMODELCREATIONFORTHESECONDEMPIRICALTECHNIQUE,BECAUSETHEKNOWLEDGEANDUNDERSTANDINGOFTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENFAILURESDISTRIBUTIONANDAFFECTINGFACTORSAREESTABLISHEDONTHESTUDYOFPASTEARTHQUAKES,ITISNECESSARYTOEXAMINETHEIRVERSATILITYBEFOREAPPLYINGTHEMINANEWPLACESOMETIMES,ITISDIFFICULTTOAPPLYLANDSLIDEKNOWLEDGEOBTAINEDINONEPLACETOASSESSINGLANDSLIDERISKINANOTHERPLACERECENTLY,DISCRIMINATIONANALYSISMETHODHASBEENDEVELOPEDBYUCHIDAETALTHISMETHODUSESMORPHOLOGICALDATAANDSEISMICMOTIONDATATOASSESSTHEEARTHQUAKEINDUCEDFAILURERISKLEVELINAMOUNTAINOUSREGIONINTHEAPPLICATIONOFASSESSINGRISKOFLANDSLIDESANDSLOPEFAILURESINTHEIMOKAWARIVERBASININNIIGATAPREFECTURE,JAPAN,THISMETHODISPROVEDTOBEEFFECTIVEINORDERTOAPPLYTHISTECHNIQUEMOREEFFECTIVELY,WEWILLDISCUSSSOMEPROBLEMSNEEDINGMOREATTENTIONINFURTHERWORK1METHODOLOGYTOPREDICTTHERISKOFEARTHQUAKETRIGGEREDLANDSLIDEANDSLOPEFAILURETHEMETHODUSEDINTHISPAPERCANBECALLEDDISCRIMINATIONANALYSISMETHODITISINITIALLYPROPOSEDBYTHEREPORTNAMED“ASTUDYONMETHODOLOGYFORASSESSINGTHEPOTENTIALOFSLOPEFAILURESDURINGEARTHQUAKES”THISRESEARCHWASCONDUCTEDBYUCHIDAETAL,MINISTRYOFLAND,INFRASTRUCTURE,TRANSPORTANDTOURISMMLIT,JAPANINTHISMETHOD,DISCRIMINATIONANALYSISISPERFORMEDTOACHIEVEAJUDGEMENTFORMULA,ANDJUDGEMENTSCOREOBTAINEDFROMTHISFORMULACANBEUSEDTOASSESSTHERELATIVERISKLEVELOFEARTHQUAKEINDUCEDSLOPEFAILURESINAMOUNTAINOUSAREAEVENINANAREAABSENTOFACTUALOCCURRENCEDATAONPASTEARTHQUAKEINDUCEDSLOPEFAILURES,THISMETHODSHOWSITSVALIDITYFIGURE1SHOWSTHESTRUCTUREOFTHEDISCRIMINATIONANALYSISMETHOD11EXTRACTIONOFMORPHOLOGICALCHARACTERISTICSANDSEISMICMOTIONCHARACTERISTICSTOCONTROLTHEOCCURRENCEOFEARTHQUAKETRIGGEREDFAILURESMANYEXISTINGSTUDIESSHOWTHATMORPHOLOGICAL,GEOLOGICALFACTORSANDSOONHAVEEFFECTONTHELANDSLIDEANDSLOPEFAILUREOCCURRINGDURINGANEARTHQUAKEBASEDONTHEIRDIFFERENTAFFECTIONTOTHEFAILURES,THESEFACTORSCANBECLASSIFIEDASPREDISPOSINGFACTORSANDINDUCINGFACTORSPREDISPOSINGFACTORSINCLUDEMORPHOLOGICALFACTORS,GEOLOGICALFACTORSANDSOON,ANDTHEYAREINTERIORCHARACTERISTICSOFASLOPEBODYINDUCINGFACTORISTHEEXTERIORFACTORTRIGGERINGTHEFAILURESDURINGANEARTHQUAKE,HERE,SEISMICMOTIONISTHEINDUCINGFACTORALTHOUGHTHEREAREVARIOUSFACTORSINCLUDEDINPREDISPOSINGANDINDUCINGFACTORS,NOTALLOFTHEMHAVEACLOSERELATIONSHIPWITHLANDSLIDEANDSLOPEFAILUREOCCURRINGTHEREFORE,ITISVERYIMPORTANTTOCHOOSESUITABLEFACTORSFORFURTHERANALYSISAFTERINVESTIGATIONSABOUTTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENEACHMORPHOLOGICALINDEXANDTHEFAILUREOCCURRENCEBYSTATISTICSANALYSIS,FAILUREOCCURRENCERATEINDIFFERENTINDEXCATEGORIESANDRELATIVEFAILUREFREQUENCYDISTRIBUTIONINTHESAMEINDEXCANBEOBTAINEDTHENANOTHERINVESTIGATIONISPERFORMEDINTOTHECORRELATIONCOEFFICIENTSBETWEENDIFFERENTMORPHOLOGICALINDEXESBYCORRELATIONANALYSISAFTERCOMPLEXLYCOMPARINGWITHDIFFERENTCOMBINATIONOFTHEINDICESBYDISCRIMINATIONANALYSIS,ATLAST,SLOPEGRADIENT,MEANCURVATUREANDPEAKGROUNDACCELERATIONARETHOUGHTTOHAVEMOREOBVIOUSLYEFFECTONTHEOCCURRENCEOFEARTHQUAKETRIGGEREDLANDSLIDEANDSLOPEFAILUREINTHISTECHNIQUEDISCUSSION,SLOPEGRADIENTREPRESENTSTHEINCLINATIONOFEACHMESHFROMTHEHORIZONTALPLANEMEANCURVATUREISUSEDASANINDEXTOREPRESENTTHECONVEXITYORCONCAVITYOFAGROUNDSURFACEANDITISAQUANTITYDEFINEDASTHEMEANOFTHEMAXIMUMANDMINIMUMCURVATUREOFALLTHEGEODESICSPASSINGTHROUGHACERTAINPOINTONTHECURVEDSURFACEACCORDINGLY,TOASSESSTHEDIFFERENTEFFECTOFEACHFACTORONTHEOCCURRENCEOFEARTHQUAKETRIGGEREDFAILURES,DISCRIMINATIONANALYSISISAPPLIEDTHROUGHUSINGCRITERIONVARIABLESANDEXPLANATORYVARIABLESHERE,OCCURRENCEORNONOCCURRENCEOFFAILURESTRIGGEREDBYEARTHQUAKESISUSEDASOBJECTIVEVARIABLESSLOPEGRADIENT,CURVATUREANDPEAKGROUNDACCELERATIONARECHOSENASEXPLANATORYVARIABLES12DETERMININGTHECOEFFICIENTOFTHEFACTORSCONTROLLINGTHEOCCURRENCEOFEARTHQUAKEINDUCEDFAILURERISKASSESSMENTTECHNIQUEOFLANDSLIDEANDSLOPEFAILUREUSEDINTHISSTUDYHASSUCHANASSUMPTIONTHATTHEFAILUREOCCURRINGORNOTHASALINEARRELATIONSHIPWITHAFFECTINGFACTORSFORTHISCASE,THERELATIONSHIPWOULDBEEXPRESSEDASFAIBCCADWHEREA,B,C,DARECOEFFICIENTSISLOPEGRADIENTDEGREECMEANCURVATURENOUNITASEISMICPEAKGROUNDACCELERATIONM/S2FDISCRIMINATIONSCOREINORDERTOACHIEVETHECOEFFICIENTSA,B,C,D,DISCRIMINATIONANALYSISWASPERFORMEDASPREVIOUSDISCUSSION,THEANALYSISTOOKSLOPEGRADIENT,MEANCURVATUREANDSEISMICPEAKGROUNDACCELERATIONASTHEEXPLANATORYVARIABLESANDTHEOCCURRENCEORNONOCCURRENCEOFFAILUREASTHEOBJECTIVEVARIABLEASARESULT,THEFOLLOWINGDISCRIMINATIONFORMULAITISCALLEDCHUETSUFORMULAWASOBTAINEDAFTERSTUDYINGTHELANDSLIDESANDSLOPEFAILURESTRIGGEREDINTHE2004MIDNIIGATAEARTHQUAKEINJAPANF0079I35C0018A731ALSO,THEAUTHORSOFTHISFORMULAPROVIDEDTHESTANDARDIZEDCOEFFICIENTVALUESFORCHUETSUFORMULA,SOFORMULA1CHANGESINTOFORMULA2,ANDFORMULA2ISUSEDFORISCUSSIONINTHISPAPERF0920I0366C0265A2WHEREFISALSOCALLEDJUDGEMENTSCOREAFTERSUBSTITUTEREALVALUEFORI,C,A,FISOBTAINEDIFFVALUEISPOSITIVE,THENTHEOBJECTITISAMESHINPRACTICALCALCULATIONWOULDBEJUDGEDTOFAILOTHERWISE,ITWOULDBEJUDGEDNOTTOFAIL2APPLICATIONOFTHEDISCRIMINATIONANALYSISMETHODINIMOKAWABASINTHESTUDYREGIONCOVERINGTHEWHOLEIMOKAWABASINISLOCATEDAT1388813892E,37293733N,WITHTOTALAREAOFABOUT20KM2FIGURE2LOTSOFLANDSLIDESANDSLOPEFAILURESOCCURREDONBOTHSIDESOFTHEIMOKAWARIVERDURING2004MIDNIIGATAEARTHQUAKEACCORDINGTOTHEAERIALPHOTOSINTERPRETATION,GROUNDCOLLAPSESOCCURREDAT878LOCATIONSINTHETARGETAREABASEDONTHEDEFINITIONSOFLANDSLIDEANDSLOPEFAILURE,ALLTHEGROUNDCOLLAPSESCANBECLASSIFIEDAS831SLOPEFAILURESAND47LANDSLIDESFIGURE3SHOWSTHEDISTRIBUTIONOFLANDSLIDEANDSLOPEFAILURESONTHEELEVATIONCONTOURLINESINTHEIMOKAWABASININTHEPROCESSOFGISPROCEDURE,THEGROUNDSURFACEFAILURESARETREATEDASPOLYGONFEATURESIFTHECENTEROFMESHWASWITHINACOLLAPSEPOLYGON,THISMESHWASCONSIDEREDASACOLLAPSEMESHINTHISSTUDY,TWOSETSOFDIGITALELEVATIONMODELDEMDATA,10MAND50M,AREUSEDASBASICMORPHOLOGICALDATATOASSESSTHERISKEARTHQUAKETRIGGEREDLANDSLIDEANDSLOPEFAILUREMEANWHILE,THEDEMSPATIALANALYSISANDRELATEDCALCULATIONAREPROCESSEDBYARCGISSOFTWARE21DATAPREPARATIONOFPREDISPOSINGANDINDUCINGFACTORSASPREVIOUSDISCUSSIONSHOWN,PREDISPOSINGFACTORSSUCHASSLOPEGRADIENT,MEANCURVATURE,ANDINDUCINGFACTORSSUCHASSEISMICPEAKGROUNDACCELERATION,ARECHOSENASTHEMAINAFFECTINGFACTORSTOASSESSTHERISKOFTHEOCCURRENCEOFLANDSLIDEANDSLOPEFAILURETRIGGEREDBYSTRONGEARTHQUAKETHISTECHNIQUESPROPOSALANDITSFINALPRACTICALAPPLICATIONARETHERESULTSOFTHEPROGRESSOFTHEGISTECHNOLOGYBASEDONIMPROVEMENTOFTHEGISSOFTWARE,ITBECOMESEASYTODOSPATIALANALYSISINALARGEAREABYAPPLYINGTHESPATIALANALYSISFUNCTIONPROVIDEDBYARCGISSOFTWARE,THESLOPEGRADIENTANDTHEMEANCURVATUREDISTRIBUTIONSAREOBTAINEDSUCCESSFULLYASTOSEISMICPEAKGROUNDACCELERATION,ALTHOUGHITSPREADSCONTINUOUSLYINSPACE,ACTUALLY,ONLYTHESEISMICSTATIONSCANRECORDITSVALUETHISMEANSTHATTHEVALUESNEEDEDFORCALCULATIONAREDISCRETEWHENUSEDTOREGIONALDISTRIBUTION,ITNEEDSTOINTERPOLATEINTHISSTUDY,FROMKNETWEBSITEHTTP/WWWKNETBOSAIGOJP/KNET/,SEISMICPEAKGROUNDACCELERATIONRECORDEDDURING2004MIDNIIGATAEARTHQUAKEISDOWNLOADEDANDINTERPOLATEDTOMESHDATAOFTHERESEARCHAREA22PREDICTIONRESULTSOFTHEDISCRIMINATIONANALYSISMETHODINTHETARGETAREABASEDONTHESPATIALANALYSISWITHTHEMESHSIZEOF10MAND50M,THESTUDYAPPLIEDCHUETSUFORMULAINTHERISKASSESSMENTOFEARTHQUAKEINDUCEDSLOPEFAILURESIPREDICTIONRESULTSACCORDINGTOTHEFVALUEOBTAINEDFROMCHUETSUFORMULA,THESPATIALDISTRIBUTIONOFRISKPREDICTIONRESULTSBASEDON10MMESHTOTAL196416CELLSAND50MMESHTOTAL7876CELLS,ARESHOWNINFIGURE4A,BRESPECTIVELYALSO,BASEDONFVALUE,THEWHOLERESEARCHREGIONCANBECLASSIFIEDINTO5RISKLEVELSTABLE1SHOWSDIFFERENTRISKLEVELRATIOOFTHEWHOLERESEARCHAREAFROMTABLE1,ITCANBEFOUNDTHATTHEHIGHESTRISKAREAOCCUPIESAROUND17AND14OFTHEWHOLEREGION,BASEDONMESHSIZEOF10MAND50MANALYSISRESPECTIVELYCOMPAREDWITHREALFAILUREAREATHATOCCUPIES8OFTHERESEARCHAREA,THISCLASSIFICATIONFORRISKASSESSMENTSEEMSREASONABLEANDACCEPTABLEFROMFIGURE4A,B,FORBOTHMESHSIZEOF10MAND50M,ITISAPPARENTTHATMOSTOFTHEACTUALSLOPEFAILURESARELOCATEDINTHEREGIONSTHATCLASSIFIEDASHIGHRISKLEVELFORMESHSIZEOF10MDATA,THETOTALCELLNUMBEROFTHEREGIONIS196416,ANDTHECELLNUMBERSDISTRIBUTIONWITHFVALUECHANGEISSHOWNASFIGURE5AFROMTHISFIGURE,WECANSEETHEREAREMORETHAN50CELLSOFTHEWHOLEAREAWITHFVALUEABOVE0THISMEANSTHATTHESEAREASAREATACOMPARATIVELYHIGHRISKOFSLOPEFAILUREFORMESHSIZEOF50MDATA,THETOTALCELLNUMBEROFTHEREGIONIS7884,ANDTHECELLNUMBERSDISTRIBUTIONWITHFVALUECHANGEISSHOWNASFIGURE5BFROMTHISFIGURE,WECANSEETHEREAREMORETHAN45CELLSOFTHEWHOLEAREAWITHFVALUEABOVE0IIRELATIONSHIPSBETWEENJUDGMENTSCORESANDFAILUREAREATHEFAILUREAREARATIORELATIVETOEACHJUDGMENTSCOREWASCALCULATEDUSINGTHEFOLLOWINGEQUATIONWHEREAISTOTALAREAOFTHEFAILUREMESHESAISFAILUREMESHWITHFVALUEWITHINASPECIALSCOPEFIGURE6SHOWSTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENJUDGMENTSCORESANDTHEFAILUREAREARATIOBOTHFORMESHSIZEOF10MAND50MDATA,ATENDENCYISNOTEDTHATTHEFAILUREAREARATIOINCREASESRAPIDLYASTHEJUDGMENTSCOREINCREASESTHISINDICATESTHATJUDGMENTSCOREISABLETOMAKEARELATIVEEVALUATIONOFTHERISKOFSLOPEFAILURESOCCURRING,WHETHERMESHSIZEOF10MOR50MDATAUSEDHOWEVER,ITSHOULDBENOTEDTHATTHEREARESOMEREALFAILEDMESHESWITHFVALUEBELOW0THESEMESHESSHOULDBELONGTOWRONGLYPREDICTIONRESULTSTABLE2SHOWSTHECORRECTRATESFORBOTHMESHSIZEOF10MAND50MDATAFROMTABLE2,ITISDISTINGUISHEDTHATPREDICTIONCORRECTRATEOFSLOPEFAILURESISMUCHHIGHERTHANTHATOFLANDSLIDES,NOMATTERCALCULATIONISBASEDONMESHSIZEOF10MOR50M3CONCLUSIONSANDDISCUSSIONINTHISSTUDY,DISCRIMINATIONANALYSISMETHODISAPPLIEDINTHERISKASSESSMENTOFSLOPEFAILURESANDLANDSLIDESTRIGGEREDBYEARTHQUAKEINTHEIMOKAWARIVERBASININJAPANBASEDONTHECOMPARISONBETWEENCALCULATEDRESULTSTOTHEREALDATAFROMPRACTICE,THISMETHODISPROVEDTOBEEFFECTIVEIDISCRIMINATIONANALYSISMETHODISEFFECTIVETODORISKASSESSMENTOFSLOPEFAILURETRIGGEREDBYEARTHQUAKENOMATTERWHATEVERDIFFERENTSIZEOFMESHDATAAREUSED,THEDISCRIMINATIONSCOREFVALUEHASSUCHATENDENCYTHATWITHTHEINCREASINGOFITSVALUE,THEPOSSIBILITYOFSLOPEFAILUREOCCURRINGINCREASESTOOALTHOUGHFVALUECANNOTBEUSEDTOJUDGEAMESHFAILORNOTABSOLUTELY,ITISEFFECTIVEINDETERMININGTHERELATIVERISKOFSLOPEFAILURESOCCURRINGATTHESAMETIME,THEVARIABLESINTHEJUDGEMENTFORMULA,SUCHASSLOPEGRADIENT,SLOPECURVATUREANDSEISMICPEAKGROUNDACCELERATION,AREFACTORSEASYTOOBTAIN,THISADVANTAGEMAKESTHISMETHODMOREPRACTICALANDMANIPULABLETHANOTHERSATPRESENTIITHISMETHODORFORMULAHASAHIGHERCORRECTRECOGNITIONRATEWHENUSEDTOSLOPEFAILURESTHANTOLANDSLIDESEFFECTIVEMETHODSTOASSESSINGTHERISKOFEARTHQUAKEINDUCEDLANDSLIDESSHOULDBEDEVELOPEDINTHEFUTUREIIIASTOTHEAFFECTIONOFMESHSIZE,ALTHOUGHMESHSIZEOF10MSHOWSALITTLEHIGHERCORRECTRECOGNITIONRATETHANMESHSIZEOF50M,THEPREDICTIONRESULTFROMMESHSIZEOF50MALSOSHOWSGOODACCORDANCEWITHREALITYTHISMEANSTHATIFTHERESEARCHREGIONISLACKOFHIGHACCURATEDATA,DEMDATAOBTAINEDFROMSATELLITECANBEUSEDINSTEADBUT,ITSHOULDBEPOINTEDOUTTHATWHENCALCULATINGSLOPEDEGREEANDCURVATURE,THESMALLERMESHSIZEMEANSMOREACCURATEMORPHOLOGICALVALUESOIFPOSSIBLE,ITISBETTERTOUSEHIGHQUALITYDATATODRAWMORPHOLOGICALFEATURESIVITSHOULDBEPOINTEDOUTWHENWEAPPLYTHISMETHODTOALARGEAREA,THERELATIONSHIPSBETWEENPREDISPOSITIONFACTORSANDINDUCINGFACTORSSHOULDBECOGNIZEDAGAINITWOULDBEBETTERIFWECONSIDERTHEINFLUENCEOFGEOLOGYSTRUCTUREINTHEFUTURESTUDYALSO,ITWOULDBEVERYIMPORTANTTOCREATEASUITABLEATTENUATIONEQUATIONOFSEISMICMOTIONINTHEREGIONABSENTOFSEISMICRECORDEDDOCUMENTSPREDICTIONOFSLOPEFAILUREDUETOEARTHQUAKE地震诱发边坡失稳的预测摘要在强震中由地震引发的山体滑坡和边坡失稳是常见的现象，并且正是因为它们造成了严重的灾害从而使得它们备受世人所关注。目前的缓解措施通常不能抵御那些灾害，因此对地震在山区引发的灾害而开发一个精确的风险评估技术就变得越来越重要。在日本IMOKAWA盆地区域中，判别分析方法对地震诱发滑坡和边坡失稳预测的运用被证明是成功而又有效的。判别的分数能被用来评估边坡失稳的相对风险值，当分数增加时，边坡失稳发生的可能性亦相应地增加。与此同时，判断公式中的变量,如边坡坡度、坡曲率和地震峰值地面加速度,是容易获得的。正是这样的优点才使得这种方法目前要比其他方法更加实用以及更具有可操作性。为了更有效地运用这种方法，还有几个问题尚待解决。关键词地震诱发滑坡和边坡失稳，数字评估模型，判别分析方法，潜在的不稳定边坡，相关分析。正文在世界上当强震发生时，由地震引发的山体滑坡和边坡失稳是常见的现象而且它们经常造成巨大的生命财产损失。例如，发生在四川省的大地震，造成大量的滑坡和崩塌，,使成千上万的人无家可归,更有的人失去了他们的生命。在这次地震中，一些巨大的山体滑坡形成的自然大坝,对邻近地区的安全构成极大的威胁。在离北川县城不远的地方，一个巨大的滑坡不仅破坏了很多建筑物，而且也夺去了许多居民的生命。然而在2004年10月23日，类似这样不幸的事情在日本发生了。一个称为新泻中央大地震（震级68）的地震也诱发大量的滑坡和崩塌,严重破坏了当地的经济和社会。如果我们浏览网站，我们将会发现几乎每天地球上的某些地方会发生许多滑坡。今天由滑坡和崩塌造成的灾害和破坏引起越来越多的世人所关注，尤其是那些拥有许多山区的国家。如果我们能够获得更多有关潜在的灾害的信息，比如破坏在哪里和什么时候将会发生，那么许多灾害可以采取一些措施从而避免其发生。因此，对滑坡和边坡失稳风险性进行评估来采取有效对策减轻这种灾害是至关重要的。直到现在，已经有许多对由强震引起的滑坡和边坡失稳风险性进行评估的方法提出来了并且得到一定的发展。在中国的西南方，由于该地区复杂的地质条件和强烈的构造活动，这种危害比中国其他地方更严重,如1933年的跌溪地震造成的损害。正在指导的许多研究工作，其目的是获得滑坡与地震的相关性，其中包括滑坡空间分布，滑坡影响因素、边坡稳定性分析等。目前，大多数人认为评估方法划分成以下两种类型1物理模型这种方法是基于力学平衡原理,通过计算安全系数或位移来判断边坡稳定2经验模型该方法是基于研究已经发生的边坡失稳的空间分布和过去地震中的影响因素之间的关系来判断边坡稳定。第一种方法依赖于纯粹的物理分析。当我们在用这种方法来对一个过去没有地震灾难事件发生的地区来进行边坡风险水平评估的时候或者是在地震运动波有不同特征的地方，该种方法很有效。然而,这种方法需要足够的地下信息,例如岩石摩擦粘聚力,摩擦角等等。这就意味着在计算之前需要做很多工作。特别是,如果计算完成在一个大的地区,问题可能会出现在模型创建的过程当中。对于第二种经验模型法，因为对失稳边坡的分布和影响因素之间的认识和理解是建立在对过去地震研究的基础上，因此在一个新的地方运用这种方法之前检测它们的多功能性是很必要的。有时候，很难将在一个地方获得的滑坡认识来对另一个地方的滑坡风险性进行评估。最近，UCHIDAETAL将判别分析法进行了发展。这种方法使用形态学数据和地震运动数据来评估一个山区地区地震诱发的边坡失稳风险水平。这种方法在日本新泻县IMOKAWA河盆地中进行滑坡和边坡失稳的风险评估的应用中，它被证明是有效的。为了更有效地应用这种技术,我们将讨论一些在以后的工作需要更多的关注问题。1预测地震引发滑坡、边坡失稳风险的方法这篇论文中所用到的方法称之为判别分析方法。它最初在报告中提到的名字为“一种评估在地震期间边坡失稳潜在可能性的方法”。这项研究是由日本土地、基础设施、交通和旅游部的UCHIDAETAL完成的。在这个方法中，判断分析是用来完成一个判断公式，并且从这个判断公式中获得的判断分数可用来评估地震诱发山区边坡失稳的相对风险。即使在一个缺乏前期地震诱发边坡失稳的实际数据情况下，这种方法同样有效。图1显示了判断分析方法的特点。11形态特征和控制地震引发边坡失稳的地震运动特性的提取许多现有的研究表明在地震发生时形态、地质因素等影响滑坡和边坡破坏。根据他们不同的破坏机制,这些因素可以分为诱发因素和诱导因素。诱发因素包括形态因素、地质因素等等,他们是坡体的内部特征诱导因素是在地震中引发边坡失稳外部因素,在这里,地震活动是诱发因素。虽然诱发和诱导因素包括很多，但是并不是所有的诱发因素和诱导因素都与滑坡和边坡失稳的发生有密切的关系。因此，选择合适的因素做更多的分析是非常重要的。对每一个形态特征和边坡失稳发生的关系通过统计分析的调查后，就能够获得在不同指标类别下的边坡失稳概率和在相同指标下的边坡失稳的相对概率。然后通过相关分析研究不同形体指标之间的相关系数。在对不同组合的指标通过判别分析进行复杂的比较后，终于，边坡坡度,意味着曲率和峰值地面加速度被认为对地震引发滑坡、边坡破坏有更明显的影响力。在这个技术讨论中，边坡坡度代表每个网格的倾向。平均曲率作为一个指标来表示地面的凹凸性。并且它被定义为所有的测地线通过一定的曲面上的点的平均最大和最小曲率的方式的量。因此,判别分析是通过使用标准应用变量和解释变量来评估地震引发边坡失稳的每个因素的不同效果。在这里,地震诱发边坡的发生或不发生作为目标变量边坡坡度、曲率和峰值地面加速度是选为解释性变量。图1判断分析方法的特点12确定控制地震诱发边坡失稳发生的因素的系数滑坡以及边坡失稳的风险评估技术在这项研究中存在这样一个假设边坡失稳的发生与否与其影响因素呈线性关系。对于这种假设条件下，它们之间的关系可以用下式表示式中A、B、C、D是常数；I是边坡坡度（度）；C是平均曲率（无单位）；A地震峰值地面加速度M/S2；F为判断数值。为了得到A、B、C、D这四个常数，所以采用判断分析。正如前面所讨论的那样，这种分析将边坡坡度、平均曲率和地震峰值地面加速度视为说明变量以及将边坡失稳的发生与否视为目标变量。因此，在研究2004年日本新泻中央大地震诱发的滑坡和边坡失稳后便得到以下判别公式（它称作CHUETSU公式）。（1）而且，这个公式的作者为CHUETSU公式提供了标准化的系数值,所以公式1可变为公式2，并且本论文用公式2做讨论，现公式2如下（2）在这里，F依然为判断数值。在给I、C、A赋值后便得到F的值。如果F的值是正数，那么对象（在实际计算中它是一个网格）可能判断是要失稳的；否则，他将会被判断成不会失稳。2判断分析理论在IMOKAWA盆地的应用。研究区覆盖整个IMOKAWA盆地位于1388813892E,37293733N,总面积约20平方公里图2。在2004年新泻中央大地震中，大量滑坡和边坡的失稳同时发生在IMOKAWA河谷的两岸。根据航拍照片解释，崩塌发生在目标区域的878的位置。根据滑坡和边坡失稳的定义，所有的地面坍塌可分为831滑坡和47滑坡。图3显示了滑坡和崩塌在IMOKAWA盆地等高线图上的分布。在这个GIS程序执行过程中,地面失稳破坏ABCAD0973501873FICA09236025以多边形为结构单元，这个网格被认为是一个崩塌网格。在这项研究中，两组数字高程模型DEM数据,10米和50米,用作基本形态数据来评估地震引发山体滑坡和边坡破坏的风险。与此同时,数字高程模型的空间分析和相关计算由ARCGIS软件处理。21诱发和诱导因素的数据准备正如先前的讨论表明,这样的诱发因素如边坡坡度,平均曲率，以及诱导因素如地震峰值地面加速度,选认为是评估风险的强烈地震引发发生滑坡、边坡失稳的主要影响因素。这种技术的提出和最后的实际应用是GIS技术发展的结果的。基于改进的GIS软件,它变得容易在一个大区域做空间分析。通过应用ARCGIS软件提供的空间分析功能，边坡坡度和平均曲率的影响分配得当。对于地震峰值地面加速度,虽然在空间中不断传播,实际上,只有地震监测站可以记录它的数值。这意味着计算所需要的值是离散的。当用于分布区域,它需要做些变化。在这项研究中,从KNET