谢菲尔德变电站220千伏升级项目的可靠性建模与分析毕业设计~外文翻译

山东理工大学毕业设计（外文翻译材料）学院专业学生姓名指导教师电气与电子工程学院电气工程及其自动化韦柳军孟繁玉RELIABILITYMODELLINGANDANALYSISFORSHEFFIELDSUBSTATION220KVUPGRADEPROJECTCAROLINELEETRANSEND,NETWORKSPTYLTD,TASMANIADRSUDHIRAGARWAL,SANDIEGO,CALIFORNIA,USAABSTRACTTHISPAPERDESCRIBESTHEAPPLICATIONOFADEFENSIBLEPROBABILISTICPROCESSINRELIABILITYEVALUATIONFORSHEFFIELD220KVSUBSTATIONREDEVELOPMENTPROJECTSHEFFIELDSUBSTATIONISAHUBOF220KVTRANSMISSIONSYSTEMINTHENORTHANDNORTHWESTREGIONSOFTASMANIAITPROVIDESCONNECTIONTOWESTCOASTANDMERSEYFORTHHYDROPOWERSTATIONSANDFACILITATESPOWERTRANSFERSFROMTHESEPOWERSTATIONSTOMAJORINDUSTRIALCUSTOMERSINGEORGETOWNAREAANDRETAILANDINDUSTRIALLOADSINTHENORTHANDNORTHWESTREGIONSOFTASMANIATHEREFORE,ITISIMPORTANTTHATINTEGRITYOFSHEFFIELDSUBSTATIONISPROTECTEDASMUCHASPOSSIBLEANDCONSEQUENCESOFUNPLANNEDOUTAGESMINIMISEDTOPREVENTPOSSIBLEWIDESPREADSYSTEMDISTURBANCESTOGETHERWITHGENERALRELIABILITYFROMSANDIEGO,CALIFORNIA,TRANSENDUNDERTOOKTHERELIABILITYEVALUATIONOFFOURREDEVELOPMENTOPTIONSFORSHEFFIELDSUBSTATIONUSINGSUBREL,SUBSTATIONRELIABILITYANDTRANSREL,TRANSMISSIONSYSTEMRELIABILITYPROGRAMS1INTRODUCTIONTRANSEND,ASATRANSMISSIONSERVICEPROVIDERANDTRANSMISSIONNETWORKOPERATORINTASMANIAISRESPONSIBLEFORPROVIDINGRELIABLEELECTRICITYSUPPLYANDPROVIDINGCOSTEFFECTIVEDEVELOPMENTSOLUTIONSOFTHETRANSMISSIONNETWORKTRANSENDHASIDENTIFIEDANEEDFORACOMPREHENSIVEANDMOREOBJECTIVEPROCESSINJUSTIFICATIONOFDEVELOPMENTPROJECTSFROMITSCAPITALWORKSPROGRAMTHENEEDTOCOMBINECUSTOMERRELIABILITYTARGETSANDECONOMICSTOACHIEVECOSTEFFECTIVEDEVELOPMENTSOLUTIONSHASBEENLONGRECOGNISEDAHIERARCHICALFRAMEWORKFOROVERALLPOWERSYSTEMRELIABILITYEVALUATIONISPRESENTEDIN1DIFFERENTDESIGN,PLANNINGANDOPERATINGPRINCIPLESANDTECHNIQUESHAVEBEENDEVELOPEDINDIFFERENTCOUNTRIESOVERMANYDECADESINANATTEMPTTOFINDBALANCEBETWEENRELIABILITYTARGETSANDECONOMICCONSTRAINTS2FOLLOWINGTHERELIABILITYCONCEPTANDPRINCIPLES,DIFFERENTUTILITIESAPPLIEDDIFFERENTRELIABILITYCRITERIATOJUSTIFYPROJECTSFROMTHEIRCAPITALWORKSPROGRAMRELIABILITYCRITERIACANBEVIEWEDASCONDITIONSTHATSHOULDBESATISFIEDBYELECTRICITYGENERATION,TRANSMISSIONANDDISTRIBUTIONSYSTEMSINORDERTOACHIEVEREQUIREDRELIABILITYTARGETSRELIABILITYCRITERIAUSUALLYFALLINTOTWOCATEGORIESESTABLISHEDNUMERICALTARGETLEVELSOFRELIABILITYEGLEVELOFEXPECTEDENERGYNOTSUPPLIEDANDPERFORMANCETESTCRITERIAEGN1,N2INCIDENTSTHATTHESYSTEMHASTOWITHSTANDANATTEMPTTOCOMBINETHESETWOCATEGORIESINTOONESETOFRELIABILITYCRITERIAISCURRENTLYUNDERWAYINTASMANIA3THEUSEOFRELIABILITYCRITERIAFROMTHEFIRSTCATEGORYISTHECOREOFPROBABILISTICRELIABILITYEVALUATIONAPPROACHTHESECONDCATEGORYISADETERMINISTICRELIABILITYEVALUATIONAPPROACHTHEUSEFULNESSOFDETERMINISTICCRITERIAANDSECURITYSTANDARDSINJUSTIFICATIONOFPROJECTSFROMCAPITALWORKSPROGRAMISCHALLENGEDIN4INSTEAD,ANAPPROACHINVOLVINGCUSTOMERSINDECISIONMAKINGANDSIMULATINGAREALISTICSYSTEMOPERATIONANDFAILUREISCOMMENDEDTHEBASICSTEPSSUGGESTEDINPROPERRELIABILITYEVALUATIONSAREBASEDONCOMPLETEUNDERSTANDINGOFTHEEQUIPMENTANDSYSTEMBEHAVIOURINCLUDINGUNDERSTANDINGTHEWAYTHEEQUIPMENTANDSYSTEMOPERATEIDENTIFYTHESITUATIONSINWHICHEQUIPMENTCANFAILUNDERSTANDCONSEQUENCESOFTHEFAILURESINCORPORATETHESEEVENTSINTOTHERELIABILITYMODELUSETHEAVAILABLEEVALUATIONTECHNIQUESTOCALCULATERELIABILITYINDICESANDCOSTSWITHTHISUNDERSTANDINGOFTHESYSTEMBEHAVIOURPROBABILITYTHEORYISTHENONLYSEENASATOOLTOTRANSFORMTHISUNDERSTANDINGINTOTHELIKELYSYSTEMFUTUREBEHAVIOUR2SELECTIONOFEVALUATIONTECHNIQUEANDSOFTWARETOOLSTHEREARETWOMAINCATEGORIESOFEVALUATIONTECHNIQUES5ANALYTICALSTATEENUMERATIONANDMONTECARLOSIMULATIONTHEADVANTAGESANDDISADVANTAGESOFBOTHMETHODSAREDISCUSSEDIN1ANALYTICALTECHNIQUEWASCHOSENBYTRANSENDBECAUSEOFITSUSEFULNESSINCOMPARINGDIFFERENTDEVELOPMENTOPTIONSFORNETWORKDEVELOPMENTPROJECTSTHISAPPROACHWASPRESENTEDALSOINTHEELECTRICITYSUPPLYASSOCIATIONOFAUSTRALIAGUIDELINESFORRELIABILITYASSESSMENTPLANNING6CONSEQUENTLY,DECISIONWASMADETOACQUIRESUBREL,ANDTRANSREL,SUBSTATIONRELIABILITYANDTRANSMISSIONSYSTEMRELIABILITYPROGRAMSFROMGENERALRELIABILITY,USA21SUBRELSUBSTATIONRELIABILITYPROGRAMSUBRELISACOMPUTERPROGRAMWHICHCALCULATESRELIABILITYINDICESFORANELECTRICITYUTILITYSUBSTATIONANDGENERATINGSTATIONSWITCHYARD7THEMETHODOLOGYUSEDTOANALYSEIMPACTOFSUBSTATIONGENERATEDOUTAGESONOVERALLSYSTEMRELIABILITYPERFORMANCESHASBEENDESCRIBEDIN8THEPROGRAMMODELSTHEFOLLOWINGOUTAGEEVENTS,INCLUDINGALLREQUIREDSUBSEQUENTAUTOMATICANDMANUALSWITCHINGOPERATIONS1FORCEDOUTAGEOFANYSUBSTATIONCOMPONENTBREAKERTRANSFORMERBUSSECTIONDISCONNECTOR2FORCEDOUTAGEOFANINCOMINGLINE3FORCEDOUTAGEOVERLAPPINGAMAINTENANCEOUTAGEFORSUBSTATIONEQUIPMENTORANINCOMINGLINE4STUCKBREAKERFAILURETOOPENWHENNEEDEDTOCLEARTHEFAULTSUBRELCALCULATESTHEFOLLOWINGLOADPOINTINDICESFREQUENCYOFINTERRUPTIONPERYEARNUMBEROFCIRCUITSINTERRUPTIONSPERYEAROUTAGEDURATIONMINUTESPEROUTAGEANNUALTOTALOUTAGEDURATIONMINUTESPERYEARCUSTOMERMINUTESOFINTERRUPTIONCMIPERYEAREXPECTEDUNSUPPLIEDENERGYEUEKWHPERYEAREXPECTEDOUTAGECOSTPERYEARSUBRELALSOCALCULATESTHEFOLLOWINGSUBSTATIONORTOTALSYSTEMINDICESSAIFI,SYSTEMAVERAGEINTERRUPTIONFREQUENCYINDEXSAIDI,SYSTEMAVERAGEINTERRUPTIONDURATIONINDEXCAIDI,CUSTOMERAVERAGEINTERRUPTIONDURATIONINDEXASAI,AVERAGESERVICEAVAILABILITYINDEXEUE,EXPECT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EOF220KVBUSBARBFAULT,TWOELEMENTSSUPPLYINGGEORGETOWNWHICHARETHESHEFFIELDGEORGETOWNNO1TRANSMISSIONLINEANDSHEFFIELDPALMERSTONTRANSMISSIONLINEWILLBELOSTDURINGHIGHWINTERLOADSTHEREMAININGSHEFFIELDGEORGETOWNNO2LINEWILLTRIPPEDONOVERLOADTHISWILLCAUSESIGNIFICANTCHANGEINNETWORKIMPEDANCEWITHREQUIREMENTTOSHEDLOADATMAJORINDUSTRIALCUSTOMERSATGEORGETOWNCONSEQUENTLY,THISWILLPRODUCEEXCESSIVEGENERATIONCONNECTEDATFARRELLANDSHEFFIELD,WHICHCANMOVETHESYSTEMTOWARDSUNSTABLEOPERATIONANDCASCADEOFEVENTSWITHPOSSIBLEBLACKOUTINTHENORTHANDNORTHWESTREGIONSOFTASMANIA312OPTION1TRIPLEBUSBARARRANGEMENTTHESCHEMATICDIAGRAMOFTHISOPTIONISSHOWNBELOWINCOMPARISONWITH“DONOTHINGOPTION”THISOPTIONPROPOSESTOUSETHESPARES752CIRCUITBREAKERANDUPGRADEANDENERGISE“S”BYPASSBUSTOFULLSIZETHEEXISTING12CIRCUITSWILLBESPREADACROSSTHETHREEBUSBARSONLYONEADDITIONAL220KVCIRCUITBREAKERISREQUIREDINTHISOPTIONTHETOTALNUMBEROFCIRCUITBREAKERSINTHISOPTIONIS15313OPTION2FULLBREAKERANDAHALFANDDOUBLEBREAKERARRANGEMENTTHESCHEMATICDIAGRAMOFTHISOPTIONISSHOWNBELOWTHISOPTIONINCLUDESCREATINGDOUBLEBREAKERANDBREAKERANDHALFARRANGEMENTSBREAKERANDAHALFARRANGEMENTISPROPOSEDBETWEENHYDROTASMANIASCETHANAPOWERSTATIONANDAUTOTRANSFORMERT1ANDLEMONTHYMEPOWERSTATIONANDAUTOTRANSFORMERT2THETOTALNUMBEROFCIRCUITBREAKERSINTHISOPTIONIS19314OPTION3PARTIALBREAKERANDAHALFANDDOUBLEBREAKERARRANGEMENTTHESCHEMATICDIAGRAMOFTHISOPTIONISSHOWNBELOWTHEMAINDIFFERENCEINCOMPARISONWITHOPTION2ISTHATTHEREISNOBREAKERANDHALFARRANGEMENTSBETWEENHYDROTASMANIASCETHANAPOWERSTATIONANDAUTOTRANSFORMERT1ANDLEMONTHYMEPOWERSTATIONANDAUTOTRANSFORMERT2THEESTABLISHMENTOFBREAKERANDAHALFARRANGEMENTSBETWEENTHESECIRCUITSCOULDHAVEASACONSEQUENCEINCREASEINCONNECTIONCHARGESFORHYDROTASMANIAFORMIDDLEBREAKERS,WHICHNEEDSTOBEDISCUSSEDANDAGREEDWITHTHISCUSTOMERTOTALNUMBEROFCIRCUITBREAKERSINTHISOPTIONIS1732RESULTSINTHISSTUDY,THEFOLLOWINGOUTAGESAREEXAMINEDN1FORCEDOUTAGEOFASTATIONCOMPONENTINCLUDINGTRANSMISSIONLINESANDTRANSFORMERSN1MAINTENANCEOVERLAPPINGN1FORCEDOUTAGESBREAKERSTUCKCONDITIONFOLLOWINGAFAULTFORAFAULTONLINE,TRANSFORMER,BUSORABREAKER,ONLYTHOSEBREAKERSWILLBECONSIDEREDFORBEINGINASTUCKCONDITIONTHATARESUPPOSEDTOTRIPTOCLEARTHEFAULTINTHISCASEBACKUPPROTECTIONWILLCLEARTHEFAULTAPARTFROMTHEABOVEOUTAGESEXAMINED,HIGHERORDEROFOUTAGESCANALSOBECONSIDEREDANDSIMULATEDINTHEPROGRAMS,HOWEVERTHEPROBABILITYANDFREQUENCYOFTHEIROCCURRENCEISQUITELOWBASEDONTHETRANSENDOUTAGEDATA,ITWASDECIDEDTHATTHEABOVESETTINGSSHOULDCAPTUREMOSTOFTHECREDIBLEOUTAGEEVENTSTHENUMBEROFEVENTSFOREACHOFTHEOPTIONSISGIVENINTHEFOLLOWINGTABLETHESEEVENTSAREGENERATEDBYTHEPROGRAMTOSTUDYTHEIRIMPACTONSUBSTATIONPERFORMANCEFOREACHEVENT,THEPROGRAMCALCULATESTHEPROBABILITY,FREQUENCYANDDURATIONUSINGTHECONNECTIVITYMODEL,ITALSOCOMPUTESTHEAMOUNTOFLOSSOFLOADANDENERGYFORALOADPOINTANDFORTHEOVERALLSUBSTATIONUSINGALINEARFLOWMETHODITCHECKSIFTHELOADCANBESUPPLIEDWITHOUTVIOLATINGTHERATINGSOFANYCOMPONENTTHENUMBEROFOUTAGEEVENTSENUMERATEDANDEXAMINEDBYTHESUBRELPROGRAMDEPENDSONTHENUMBEROFCOMPONENTSINASTATIONANDTHEPROGRAMSETTINGSIFMORECOMPONENTSAREADDEDTOASTATION,THEIREXPOSURETOFAILURESALSOINCREASESTOSELECTANOPTIMALDESIGN,ABALANCEBETWEENTHEREDUNDANCYPROVIDEDBYADDINGACOMPONENTBREAKERORABUSBARANDTHEINCREASEDEXPOSURESHOULDBEKEPTINMINDASSEENFROMTHETABLESABOVE,THENUMBEROFOUTAGEEVENTSFOROPTIONS1,2AND3ISHIGHERTHANFORTHEEXISTINGCONFIGURATIONSINCETHESEOPTIONSHAVEMOREBREAKERSANDBUSESINTHEIRSUGGESTEDCONFIGURATIONSTHEREISNOEVENTTHATCAUSESTHECOMPLETELOSSOFLOADINTHEAREAINCLUDINGBURNIE,SHEFFIELDANDGEORGETOWNSUBSTATIONSINTHEMODELINANYOFTHEOPTIONSHOWEVERTHEREAREEVENTSINEACHOPTIONTHATWILLCAUSEPARTIALLOSSOFLOADOPTION2HASTHELOWESTNUMBEROFEVENTSCAUSINGLOSSOFLOADWHILETHEEXISTINGCONFIGURATIONHASTHEHIGHESTNUMBEROFEVENTSCAUSINGLOSSOFLOADRELIABILITYINDICESCOMPUTEDBYSUBRELPROGRAMFOREACHOFTHEOPTIONISGIVENINTHETABLEBELOWTHESEINDICESARECOMPUTEDUSINGTHELOADPROBABILITYDENSITYFUNCTIONPDFASUNITYPDFOFUNITYMEANSTHATTHELOADISSAMETHROUGHOUTTHEYEARTHEWIDELYUSEDRELIABILITYINDICESSUCHASSAIFI,SAIDI,CAIDI,ASAI,ANDEUEARECOMPUTEDBYTHEPROGRAMOUTAGECOSTSARECALCULATEDBASEDONCALCULATEDEXPECTEDUNSUPPLIEDENERGYEUEANDVALUEOFLOSTLOADAPPLIEDTOPARTICULARCUSTOMERGROUPSACOMPREHENSIVEANALYSISOFVALUEOFLOSTLOADFORDIFFERENTCUSTOMERGROUPSHASBEENUNDERTAKENBYMONASHUNIVERSITYFORVICTORIANUTILITIES9BASEDONTHETABLEABOVEITISCLEARTHATOPTION1TRIPLEBUSBARARRANGEMENT,HASLOWESTOUTAGECOSTSBASEDONTHELISTOFSUBSTATIONORIGINATEDOUTAGESGENERATEDBYSUBREL,TRANSRELPROGRAMWASUSEDTOINDICATEDCONSEQUENCESONTHEOVERALLSYSTEMPERFORMANCESTHEVOLTAGEVIOLATIONSWEREENCOUNTEREDONLYFOROPTION2IN9SIMULATIONEVENTSTHEREWEREFEWCONTINGENCIESFORWHICHSOLUTIONDIDNOTCONVERGEFORTHESECONTINGENCIES,APOTENTIALEXISTSTHATTHESYSTEMWILLFACEMAJORPROBLEMSINCLUDINGACOLLAPSETHESYSTEMSTRESSANDITSRESPONSEWILL,OFCOURSE,DEPENDONTHESYSTEMCONDITIONSPRESENTATTHETIMEOUTAGESTHEREAREFOUREVENTSFOROPTION1THATRESULTINNONCONVERGENCEOFTHEPOWERFLOWTHEPROBABILITYOFTHESENONCONVERGENCECASESFOROPTION1IS00026WHICHMEANSTHATTHEREISAPOTENTIALTHATEXISTSTHATTHESYSTEMMAYCOLLAPSEONCEEVERY400YEARSTHISISAVERYLOWLIKELYEVENTANDDURINGTHISTIMETHESYSTEMISLIKELYTOGOTHROUGHSEVERALCHANGESITSHOULDALSOBENOTEDTHATINTHISANALYSISNOREMEDIALACTIONSAREINCLUDEDWITHREMEDIALACTIONS,OPERATORSMAYBEABLETOAVOIDSUCHASITUATION4CONCLUSIONSTHEIMPLEMENTATIONANDAPPLICATIONOFAPROBABILISTICBASEDPLANNINGFORSELECTINGASUBSTATIONCONFIGURATIONPROVIDESQUITEUSEFULINFORMATIONTOANENGINEERINDECIDINGTHEBESTOPTIONTHEUSEOFBOTHSUBRELANDTRANSRELPROGRAMSFORSHEFFIELDSUBSTATIONSTUDYHASSUFFICIENTLYDEMONSTRATEDTHATITISIMPORTANTTOEXAMINEALLCREDIBLEOUTAGESCENARIOSTHATARENOTPOSSIBLETODOMANUALLYQUANTITATIVEINDICESCOMPUTEDBYTHESEPROGRAMSPROVIDEANOBJECTIVEASSESSMENTOFVARIOUSOPTIONSCONSIDEREDFORTRANSMISSIONSUBSTATIONSITISIMPORTANTTHATONLYSUBRELANALYSISMAYNOTPROVIDETHECOMPLETEINFORMATIONWITHOUTPERFORMINGATRANSRELANALYSIS,ITISLIKELYTHATTHERISKPOSEDBYACONFIGURATIONMAYNOTBECORRECTLYASSESSEDFROMTHEOVERALLSYSTEMPOINTOFVIEWFORTHESHEFFIELDSUBSTATIONTHETRIPLEBUSBARARRANGEMENTOPTION1ISTHECHEAPESTOPTION,EASYTOIMPLEMENT,ANDRELIABILITYINDICESFORSHEFFIELDSUBSTATIONARETHEBESTINTHISOPTIONTHELOWPROBABILITIESDIVERGENTCASESCANBERESOLVEDWITHAPPROPRIATEREMEDIALACTIONSINPLACE,INCLUDING,GENERATIONRESCHEDULING,VOLTAGESUPPORTANDLOADSHEDDINGREFERENCES1BILLINTON,RANDALLAN,RN,”POWERSYSTEMRELIABILITYINPERSPECTIVE”,IEEELECTRONICANDPOWER,PP231236,MARCH19842“POWERSYSTEMRELIABILITYANALYSISAPPLICATIONGUIDE,”CIGREWG03OFSC38,EDITEDBYLESLEYKELLEYREGNIER,19873“TRANSMISSIONNETWORKSECURITYANDPLANNINGCRITERIADRAFT”,OFFICEOFTASMANIANENERGYREGULATOR,AUGUST20054ALLAN,RN,ANDBILLINTON,R”PROBABILISTICMETHODSAPPLIEDTOELECTRICPOWERSYSTEMSARETHEYWORTHIT”,POWERENGINEERINGJOURNAL,PP121129,MAY19925BILLINTON,RANDALLAN,RN,”RELIABILITYEVALUATIONOFPOWERSYSTEMS”,PITMANSBOOKS,NEWYORKANDLONDON,2NDEDITION,19966“ESAAGUIDELINESFORRELIABILITYASSESSMENTPLANNING,”,NOVEMBER19977“SUBRELSUBSTATIONRELIABILITYPROGRAMUSERMANUAL”,GENERALRELIABILITY,SANDIEGO,CA,20028AGARWAL,SK,ANDANDERSON,PM“EFFECTOFSTATIONORIGINATEDOUTAGESONBULKPOWERSYSTEMRELIABILITY,”,CIGRESYMPOSIUM,S3891,MONTREAL,19919MONASHUNIVERSITY,”STUDYOFTHEVALUEOFLOSTLOAD”,STUDYCONDUCTEDFORTHEVICTORIANPOWEREXCHANGEVPXCOMPANY,MELBOURNE,2000谢菲尔德变电站220千伏升级项目的可靠性建模与分析创见网络私人有限公司，塔斯马尼亚阿加瓦尔博士，美国加利福尼亚州圣迭戈摘要本文介绍了在可靠性评估中的应用一个可防御概率过程谢菲尔德220千伏变电站重建项目。谢菲尔德是一个枢纽变电站220千伏输电系统在北部和西北地区塔斯马尼亚。它提供了连接到西海岸和默西第四水力发电站，并促进这些发电站在乔治城地区和塔斯马尼亚北部和东北西部地区的零售和工业负荷主要工业客户的电力传输。因此，重要的是谢菲尔德变电站的完整性保护，尽可能多尽可能的和非计划停运的后果最小化，以防止可能发生的广泛的系统干扰。再加上从利福尼亚州圣迭戈的通用可靠性，创见谢菲尔德四个重建方案进行了可靠性评估变电站，变电站的可靠性和TRANSREL，传输系统的可靠性方案使用SUBREL。1简介创见，在塔斯马尼亚岛作为传输服务提供商和传输网络运营商负责提供可靠的电力供应，并提供符合成本效益的开发解决方案的传输网络。创见已确定基本建设工程计划需要一个全面，更客观的过程，在开发项目的理由。需要结合客户的可靠性指标和经济，实现成本效益的开发解决方案认可已久。整个电力系统可靠性评估的层次框架。1不同的设计，规划和经营原则和技术已在不同的国家发展几十年来试图找到可靠性目标之间的平衡和经济制约。2可靠性的概念和原则，应用不同的可靠性的标准来评价。从他们的资本项目工程计划，可靠性标准，可以被看作是由发电，输电和配电系统，以达到目标所需满足的条件。可靠性标准通常分为两类建立了数值目标级别的可靠性（例如水平的预期不提供能量）和性能测试标准（如N1，N2事故，该系统具有承受）。目前正在尝试结合这两类可靠性标准为一组在塔斯马尼亚的。3从第一类的使用可靠性标准的核心是的概率可靠性评价方法。第二类是一个确定性的可靠性评估方法。从资本项目的理由确定性的标准和安全标准的用处工程计划的挑战。4相反，这种方法涉及客户决定并模拟现实的系统操作与失败表彰。完整的理解的基础上的设备和系统的行为，包括在适当的可靠性评估建议的基本步骤理解的方式，设备和系统操作确定设备在哪些情况下可以失败了解失败的后果将这些事件的可靠性模型使用可用的评估技术计算可靠性指标和成本。系统行为的概率论有了这样的认识，然后只看作是一种工具，把这个认识统一到系统未来可能的行为。2