Gold Survey 2010 Presentation 2010全球黄金市场调研

1、Gold Survey 2010 Philip Klapwijk Executive Chairman, GFMS Ltd. London, 14th April 2010 GFMS gratefully acknowledge the generous support from the following companies for this years Gold Survey and its two Updates World Gold Council www.IBKC Kinross Gold Corporation Commerzbank Global Precious Metals

2、Dubai Multi Commodities Centre ScotiaMocatta Johnson Matthey Valcambi sa JPMorgan Chase Bank INTL Commodities, INC. Tanaka Precious Metals Group Barrick Gold Corporation Large and experienced team of 25 Analysts + Consultants. Not just desk-based: Over 300 companies and organisations in 36 countries

3、 visited by our personnel in the last 12 months. Annual Gold, Silver, Platinum Thomson Reuters Euro Gold Price Weekly Averages Euro/oz EURO Average Intra-Year Year-on-Year 2008 593.09 6.9% 17.0% 2009 696.94 21.5% 17.5% Q1 2010 802.51 6.1% 15.0% 26-week moving average Source: GFMS; Thomson Reuters Eu

4、ro/kg US$/oz Rupee 10g/g Gold Prices in Different Currencies Indexed Daily Series Source: GFMS; Thomson Reuters Real and Nominal Gold Prices (real US$ price in constant 2009 terms) New record nominal annual average reached in 2009, but in real terms todays prices are still well short of historical p

5、eaks. 1980 average: $1,600 Real Price Nominal Price Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters Supply 20082009y-o-y Mine production2,4092,5726.8% Official sector sales23241-82.2% Old scrap supply1,3161,67427.2% TOTAL SUPPLY3,9574,2878.3% Gold Supply in 2009 Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010) GFMS Mine Supply Databa

6、se Over 100 companies analysed on a quarterly basis production/costs/corporate activity Over 300 mines recorded on an annual basis production/costs/reserves/grade Over 320 projects projected production profile, start-up date, capex, reserves, resources Informal mine production measured on a country-

7、by- country basis Costs measured at 70% of Western World gold production Bottom-up cost analysis methodology to assess $/tonne mining, ore processing and on-site administration costs, plus benchmarking of fuel, power, labour productivity and other key inputs Global analysis and forecasting of mine s

8、upply, breakdown of industry cost structures and trends, benchmarking Gold Mine Production 2009 up 163t or 6.8% yoy Latin America North America South Africa Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010) Other China Australia Argentina Ghana Mine Production: Winners and Losers (Figures represent year-on-year chang

9、e, i.e. 2009 less 2008) Indonesia China South United Africa States Source: GFMS Russia Mongolia Latin America North America South Africa Other Major Western World Mines Cash Costs (in money-of-the-day terms) Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010) Australia Year-on-Year Changes to Cash Costs 464 Source: GFM

10、S (Gold Survey 2010) 478 +10 +12 +6 +5 +5 +3 -4 -12 +21 -33 2009 vs 2008 Mine Production 163 tonne increase equal to 6.8% y-o-y in 2009; the first annual increase for three years. Strong increases from a suite of new projects and operating mines. Strong country gains in Indonesia, China, Russia, Arg

11、entina, Brazil and Mexico. All regions posted growth, except for North America. Two largest falls at the mine level were seen in the United States. US dollar denominated total cash costs increased by an average 3%, or $14/oz, to $478/oz in 2009. GFMS proprietary All-In Costs measure increased by 3.9

12、% to $717/oz. Above-Ground Stocks of Gold, end-2009 Above-ground Stocks, end 2009 = 166,000t Gold is not “consumed” like most commodities; stocks can be available at the right price Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2010) Supply from Scrap, Hedging the mid $1,000s are a possible low over the next three mont

13、hs, with prices in that region most likely to be eventually pushed up again by bargain hunting and stock replenishment. Supply expected to rise fairly strongly in 2010, with growth in mine production, and, from a very low base, official sector sales, the latter also expected to be concentrated in th

14、e second half. Scrap supply has fallen year-to-date but should recover in the latter part of 2010 basis higher price conditions. These will also mean that there is only a moderate recovery in fabrication demand for the calendar year as a whole. Imbalances in the market suggest that at some point the gold price will have to retreat. Nevertheless, this is most unlikely to occur on a secular basis in 2010 and potentially not until well into 2011 given current economic conditions, which in an underlying sense still