宏观经济是否影响公司的盈利能力【外文翻译】

1、外文翻译原文is there a macroeconomic impact on the profitability of the company?material source:academy of economic studies. author:bucharestabstractthis paper aims at identifying a potential impact of the macroeconomic environment on the profitability of the companies listed on the bucharest stock exchan

2、ge. this research derives from the most recent literature on the macroeconomic determination of the capital structure of companies located into emerging countries. indeed, as for these corporations, there has been agreed on the risk transfer between sovereign and corporate spreads, but every emergin

3、g country incurs a particular approach and generalization tends to decay. therefore, the research focuses on highlighting out the macro determination of the corporate profitability; there will be developed a complex perspective, following up the mixture between idiosyncratic and systemic approach.in

4、troductionglobal economy triggered corporate sector internalization. companies became more and more integrated into a borderless world, designing and implementing strategies in order to reduce costs through economy of scale and outsourcing.meanwhile, corporations are more and more exposed to disequi

5、librium originating from the international environmen匸 macroeconomic volatility impacts them more consistently, especially from the perspective of their creditworthiness and profitability.economic cycle is closely related to corporate profitability. during boom periods, profitability potential incre

6、ases while recession brings it down. an economic downturn triggers the probability to not be able to generate enough cash-flow in order to cover the financial obligations.during the last decade, analysts agreed on the fact that corporate default does not imply only an idiosyncratic side, but also a

7、systemic one, resulting from the correlation of the company with the macroeconomic environment.this paper aims at highlighting out the impact of the macroeconomic environment on the profitability of the companies listed on the bucharest stock exchange, broken down by sector. there have been selected

8、 three variables closely linked to the macroeconomic volatility 一 current account deficit, economic growth, exchange rate fluctuation- that have been integrated into an ols regression grouping also indicators reflecting the financial soundness of the company. the conclusions regarding the potential

9、impact of the macro side on the profitability tend to differ according to the corporate sector, some being more impacted than the others.trend of profitabiiityrecently there has been developed a consistent literature on the macro determination of the corporate default (see me neil, frey and embracht

10、s, 2005). links between micro and macro variables closely related to corporate default have been pointed out. alves (2005) and shahnazarian and asberg-sommer (2007) found cointegration relationships between the macro and moody s kmv expected default frequency (edf) variables. short term interests, g

11、dp and inflation are closely linked to edf. similar approaches have been developed by aspachs, goodhart, tsomocos and zicchino (2006) as well as by pesaran, schuermann and weiner (2006). these perspectives subscribe to an impact derived from the macro environment to the corporate segment, while pesa

12、ran, schuermann and weiner (2006) revealed that this relationship can be modeled also under the form of an impact deriving from the corporate to the macro side they found out that corporate default probability as well as equity values impact gdp variables.castren et al. (2007) included domestic outp

13、ut, inflation, nominal interest rate and real exchange rate as endogenous variables into a var model while aggregated default frequency and foreign macro variables were incorporated as exogenous variables. they concluded that default frequency and macro indicators have a similar trendthis paper foll

14、ows up the rationale of jacobson et al. (2005) who conceived macro variables as corporate default regressors using the logit methodology. what it differentiates this approach is precisely the fact that there will be developed an ols regression at the level of the corporate profitability which is con

15、ceived as the key element of the corporate financial soundness. there have been selected three variables closely linked to the macroeconomic volatility 一 current account deficit, economic growth, exchange rate fluctuation- that have been integrated into an ols regression grouping also indicators ref

16、lecting the financial soundness of the company.the research aims at revealing to what extent profitability is triggered by variables at the firm level and by variables related to the macro environment. the conclusions regarding the potential impact of the macro side on the profitability tend to diff

17、er according to the corporate sector, some being more impacted than the others.macroeconomic factorsin order to reveal the macroeconomic impact on corporate profitability, there has been performed a regression integrating profitability reflected into the net margin as endogenous variable and a serie

18、s of financial ratios related to liquidity, size and solvency as exogenous variables. regressors included also macroeconomic variables 一 current account deficit, exchange rate volatility and real economic growth database integrated financial information related to the companies listed on the buchare

19、st stock exchange, broken down by secto匚 the industries analysis focused on were represented by materials, finished goods producers, fertilizer producers, energy and pharmaceuticals. the period financial information was related to was represented by the interval 1997-2007.in a first stage, regressio

20、n included only firms related variables, linked to the idiosyncratic side of the corporate profitability.secondly, regression was enlarged by the macro related indicators. the key element originates from the way statistic output evolved from one regression to another, especially from the perspective

21、 of the macro indicators impactstatistic output points out that profitability is impacted to a high extent by solvency, liquidity and size indicators- material and chemical industry profitability is correlated negatively with liquidity while the other industries seem to be positively correlated. thi

22、s conclusion is quite interesting. a good liquidity indicator impacts in a positive way profitability. profit creates good opportunities in order to bring liquidity into the company, but it does not necessarily imply liquidities in the realistic sense which is in line with the case of material and c

23、hemical industries.size is correlated positively with profitability while solvency and indebtedness indicators are correlated in most of the cases negatively.enlarging the regressions by the macro variables creates a clear opportunity for the r-squared and adjusted r-squared to increase. in all the

24、cases, r-squared and adjusted r-squared increase at least by 10%. the most significant change is recorded in the case of the pharmaceutical industry (r-squared increases from 0.55 to 0.78).profitability is highly impacted by the macroeconomic indicators at the level of 4 out of the 5 industries. the

25、 only industry which is not impacted by macro environment is represented by the finished goods industry. its profitability is impacted only at the firm level. current account deficit impacts negatively profitability at the level of the material, fertilizers producers and pharmaceutical industries wh

26、ile chemical and energetic industries are impacted positively. this impact is explained by the correlation of the industry with the final consumption energetic and chemicals are strongly linked to the usual consumption supported by a high current account deficit while the other industries are not li

27、nked to the same extent. pharmaceuticals and materials do not imply goods related to usual consumption which has been recently reflected into a growing current account deficit. real economic growth impacts in a positive manner the profitability at the level of all the industries, confirming the assu

28、mption that a prosperous macro environment creates incentives to corporate profitability. exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on the evolution of the corporate profitability only in the case of the pharmaceutical industry. this finding is in line with the assumption that pharmaceuticals c

29、oncentrate its activity mainly on imports which implies a high sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations.overall, macro related variables determine to a high extent corporate profitability. in order to provide an accurate assessment of the corporate profitability, it is necessary for the analysts to

30、 consider also the macro environment the company activates in. the conclusions of this paper must be interpreted within the context of the limitations imposed by the database dimension. future research will keen on integrating into the research other macro related indicators.译文宏观经济是否影响公司的盈利能力资料來源：科学

31、院经济研究作者:布加勒斯特摘要本文的写作主旨在于识别宏观经济环境对列示在布加勒斯特证券交易所的 公司的盈利能力产生的潜在影响。这项研究源口于大多数关于新兴国家的公司 运用宏观经济测定公司资本结构的近代文献。事实上，对于这些公司，已经达 成了风险在主权和企业公司之间的转变的一致意见，但每一个新兴国家的公司 都有各自特定的方式并且往往普遍地趋向于衰减。因此，这项研究更集中于突 显出公司盈利能力的宏观测定，并且将会开发出一种复杂的方法，继而将特别 的和系统的途径相融合。1导言经济的全球化引发了公司部门的内部化。各式各样的公司越來越多地融入 到无边界的iii:界经济当中，并且为了减少成本，它们计划和实

32、施了规模经济和 外部采购的策略。与此同时，各公司也正在越来越多地暴露出它们来自于国际环境的非均衡 状态。宏观经济的波动对它们的影响更具有一贯性，特别是在它们的信誉程度 方面和盈利能力方面。经济周期与企业的盈利能力密切相关。在经济繁荣时期，会引起公司盈利 能力的增长，而在经济衰退时期，会引起公司盈利能力的卜降。由于经济低迷 而引发的盈利能力的下降会使得企业不能够产牛足够的现金流来覆盖企业的各 项金融债务。在过去的十年中，分析师们一致认同这样一个事实，就是企业的违约现象 不仅仅是出现在个别的公司，而是一个普遍的现象，这是因为在宏观经济环境 下公司之间是具有相关性的。本文的主旨在于突显出宏观经济环境

33、影响列示在布加勒斯特交易所的公司 的盈利能力的影响程度，并且按部门进行分解。冃前已选定了三个与宏观经济 波幅密切相关的变量一一收支往来账户赤字，经济增长和汇率波动，它们已被 纳入了最小平方法线性冋归分组指标，同时也反映了公司的财务健全程度，并 且得出了有关企业盈利能力宏观方面的潜在影响会根据企业部门的不同而有所 不同的结论，跟其他部门相比，其中一些部门受到的影响更大。2盈利能力的趋势的分析最近，已经建立起了一致的关于企业在宏观经济下违约的一致的文学体系 (见me neil, frey and embrachts, 2005)。微观变量和宏观变量z间的联系与 公司违约密切相关的事实已被指出。al

34、ves ( 2005 )和shahnazarian和 asberg-sommer (2007)发现了宏观经济和穆迪县kmv公司(法国电力公司) 预期违约的频数之间的关系。短期利益、国内生产总值和通货膨胀与预期违约 的频数是密切相关的。类似的方法通过aspachs, goodhart, tsomocos和 zicchino (2006)以及 pesaran, schuermann 和 weiner (2006)而得到发展。 通过对这些观点的订阅认知到宏观经济环境会对企业的各部门产生影响，而 pesaran, schuermann和weiner (2006)透露这种关系即源自于宏观方面对公 司的影

35、响可以被模式化或者形式化。他们发现，企业因违约而产生的盈利能力 和权益价值影响着国内生产总值。castren等(2007)的观点包括国内生产总量，通货膨胀，名义利率和实 际汇率在var模型中表现为内生变量，而被汇总的违约频数和外部的宏观变量 则被合并纳入为外生变量。他们的结论是违约频数的变动趋势和宏观指标的变 动趋势有所相似。本文追踪jacobson等人(2005)的基本原理，他们运用多元逻辑的研究方 法设想宏观变量和企业违约频数。而不同于前种做法的另-种方法是制定一个 公司盈利能力水平的最小二乘方线性回归，同时把公司的盈利能力被设想成为 是一个对公司财务健全起关键作用的因素。h前已选定了三个与宏观经济波幅 密切相关的变量-收支往来帐户赤字，经济增长和汇率波动，它们已被纳入了最 小二乘方线性冋归分组指标，同时也反映了公司的财务是否健全。这项研究旨在揭示由企业的变量水平与宏观经济环境的关系而引发的对公 司盈利能力的影响程度。得出的结论是针对企业的不同部门，企业盈利能力受 宏观方面的影响会有所不同，跟其他部门相比，其屮的一些部门受到的影响更 人。3宏观经济影响盈利能力的因素为了揭示了宏观经济对企业盈利能力的影响程度，匕进行了对盈利能力的 综合的冋归分析，反映到类似于内