走向新型的财务预警系统【外文翻译】

1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文文献译文标题：走向新型的财务预警系统资料来源:european central bankworking paper seriesmarcel fratzscher作者： matthieu bussiere摘要：木文开发一个新的预警系统（ews）,他在一个多项式转化模型的基 础上预测金融危机。结果表明，早期预警系统都是建立在二项式离散模型的基 础上，也就是我们所说的危机后的偏见。这种偏见在经济宁静的时期出现时， 经济很大程度上是健全和可持续的，但当出现危机或者危机后的时期，经济出 现变量时，通过调整就可以达到一个更可持续的水平，者可以让经济保持到危 机发生前并与之没有区别

2、。我们表明，应用多项对分数模型，它可以允许两个 或者两个以上国家之间的对应经济危机的区別，这是解决这一问题的有效途径, 并对预测金融危机的能力构成了显着改善。实证结果显示，从1993年至目前出 现32个开放的新兴市场，该模型得到应用并正确的预测了在新兴市场的大部分 危机。此外，我们推导出关于早期预警系统模型的优化设计，在基于他们的对 风险预警程度意料之外的基础上得出金融危机预警的结果，让决策者作出最佳 的选择，关键字：财务预警系统；二项式离散信赖模型；货币危机早期预警系统； 危机预测非技术性总结：在过去的十年，在新兴市场经济体系出现大量金融危机（emes）时，经 常会对经济，社会和政治后果产生

3、毁灭性的打击，。这些金融危机，在许多情况 下并不局限于个别经济，也传染性的蔓延到其他市场。因此，国际金融机构开 发预警系统（ews）模型，目的是确定并预防新兴市场经济的弱点和漏洞，并 最终预测这一类事件。木文的目的是提出一种新的预警系统模型，在现有的财 务预警经济模型经行改善。首先，开发不同的实证方法，就是我们所说的对危 机后的偏见纠正。如果出现这种偏差，模型无法区分宁静的时期的经济模式。 当在危机后或者是危机后恢复的时期，经济基木面在很大程度上是健全的和可 持续的。但当经济发牛变量时，通过调整去达到一个更加可持续的水平或更稳 定的增长路径。我们表明，这种区别，使用三个制度（一个宁静的政权危机

4、前 的制度，一个支柱性经济出现危机的制度和一个危机后经济出现恢复制度）和 一个多项式对分数模型构成一个预警系统模型，使对财务危机的预测能力大幅 改善。介绍：引言在过去的十年看到大量的新兴市场经济体（emes）出现金融和经济 的危机吋，他对社会和政治造成的后果往往是毁灭性的。这些金融危机，在许 多情况下并不局限于个别经济，也会传染性的蔓延到其他市场。特别是1994 至1995年度的拉美危机和1997-98年的亚洲金融危机影响了广泛的国家集团， 并作为一个整体对国际金融体系的系统性产生了很大的影响。因此，国际组织 和私营部门机构已经开始开发早期预警系统（ews）模型，该模型的预测主要 以个别国家何

5、时可能会受到金融危机影响的目的经行研究。国际货币基金组织 已率先投入emes开发并在早期预警系统模型的经行了重犬努力，卡明斯基， lizondo和reinhart （1998）和berg和pattillo （1999）都著有对其极其具有影 响力的论文。但也有许多屮央银行，如美国联邦储备委员会（kamin公司，迅 达和萨穆埃尔，kamin和巴布森学院）和德意志银行（schmitz）以及学术界 和各种私营部门机构，近年来也致力去发展风险预警模型。预警系统模型可以 有重大价值的决策者，使他们能够发现潜在的经济弱点和漏洞，并可能采取先 发制人的措施，以减少遇到危机的风险。然而，这些模型已被证明只是在低

6、调 的研究以及在预测危机中执行。本文的目的是开发一种新的预警系统模型显著 三种方式，提高现有风险预警模型。首先，也是最重要的是，本文认为，现有 的预警系统模型的一个主要弱点是，就是我们所说的危机后的偏见。这种偏见 意味着这些模型无法区分宁静的时期。经济基本面在很大程度上是健全和可持 续的，就是一个宁静的经济制度和所谓的支柱型产业出现危机的时期和危机后 恢复的吋期。当经济发生变量吋，通过一个调整过程可以达到一个更可持续的 水平或增长路线。我们表明可以使用多项对分数模型对三个制度经行区别（一 个宁静的政权危机前的制度，一个支柱性产业出现危机的制度和危机解决后恢 复的制度）构成预警系统模型的预测能力

7、的大幅改善。外文文献原文title:towards a new early warning system offinancial crisesmaterial source : european central bankworking paper series author: matthieu bussiere marcel fratzscherabstractthis paper develops a new early warning system (ews) model for predicting financial crises, basedon a multinomial logi

8、t model. it is shown that ews approaches based on binomial discrete-dependentvariable models can be subject to what we call a post-crisis bias. this bias arises when no distinction is made between tranquil periods, when economic fundamentals are largely sound and sustainable, and crisis/post-crisis

9、periods, when economic variables go through an adjustment process before reaching a more sustainable level or growth path. we show that applying a multinomial logit model, which allows distinguishing between more than two states, is a valid way of solving this problem and constitutes a substantial i

10、mprovement in the ability to forecast financial crises. the empirical results reveal that, for a set of 32 open emerging markets from 1993 till the present, the model would have correctly predicted a large majority of crises in emerging markets. moreover, we derive general results about the optimal

11、design of ews models, which allows policy-makers to make an optimal choice based on their degree of risk-aversion against unanticipated financial crises.keywords: currency crises; early warning system; crisis prediction.non-technical summarythe last decade saw a large number of financial crises in e

12、merging marketeconomies (emes) with oftendevastating economic, social and political consequences. these financial crises were in many cases not confined to individual economies but spread contagiously to other markets as well. as a result, international financial institutions have developed early wa

13、rning system (ews) models, with the aim of identifying economic weaknesses and vulnerabilities among emerging markets and ultimately anticipating such events.the aim of this paper is to present a new ews model that significantly improves upon existing models. first, the paper develops a different em

14、pirical methodology that corrects for what we call a post-crisis bias. this bias arises if models fail to distinguish between tranquil periods, when economic fundamentals are largely sound and sustainable, and postcrisis/recovery periods, when economic variables go through an adjustment process befo

15、re reaching a more sustainable level or growth path. we show that making this distinction by using a multinomial logit model with three regimes (a tranquil regime, a pre-crisis regime, and a post-crisis/recovery regime) constitutes a substantial improvement in the forecasting ability of ews models.i

16、ntroductionthe last decade saw a large number of financial crises in emerging market economies (emes) with often devastating economic, social and political consequences. these financial crises were in many cases not confined to individual economies but spread contagiously to other markets as well. i

17、n particular the latin american crisis of 1994-95 and the asian crisis of 1997-98 affected a wide group of countries and had systemic repercussions for the international financial system as a whole.as a result, international organizations and also private sector institutions have begun to develop ea

18、rly warning system (ews) models with the aim of anticipating whether and when individual countries may be affected by a financial crisis. the imf has taken a lead in putting significant effort into developing ews models for emes, resulting in influential papers by kaminsky, lizondo and reinhart (199

19、8) and by berg and pattillo (1999b). but also many central banks, such as the us federal reserve (karnin, schindler and samuel, 2001, karnin and babson, 1999) and the bundesbank (schnatz, 1998, 1999), academics and various private sector institutions have developed models in recent years.ews models

20、can have substantial value to policy-makers by allowing them to detect underlying economic weaknesses and vulnerabilities, and possibly taking pre-emptive steps to reduce the risks of experiencing a crisis. the central concern is, however, that these models have been shown to perform only modestly well in predicting crises (berg and pattillo, 1999a).the aim of this paper is to develop a new ews model that significantly improves upon existing models in three ways. f